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Is that a small forward, or are you just happy to see me?!  If it’s Kelly Oubre, then I’m very happy!  Although I didn’t even rank Oubre…  Love me some Oubre in dyno though!  Let’s get Otto Porter out of here!  Man, I’m distracted by shiny objects – aka young basketball players.

As we move along with the tiers, and not to dissuade you from reading through this article (cough, cough), I think SF is the least meaningful position in Yahoo.  So many wings have the SG/SF, so many stretch 4s have the SF/PF, that I can’t seem to ever remember being in a bind to fill up my three hole.  Wow, that sounds weird…  Like something someone would say on that new Wyatt Cenac show about alien abductions.  That looks like it could be really funny or really stupid.  Pretty much the same 50/50 criteria I have on all of my articles!  Here’s the top SF for the 2016-17 fantasy basketball season, in tiers:

The “I’ll take any of the big four, just give me a top-4 pick at some point, dammit!” Tier:

SF RANK OVERALL RANK PLAYER, TEAM, AGE POS NOTE
1 2 James Harden, HOU (26) PG, SG, SF D’Antoni?! Sign me up! TO will be out of control again, but so will the Pts/Ast as well as the flops for FT.
2 4 Kevin Durant, GS (27) SF, PF These top 4 are so razor close that I have some major chafing going on. I still expect Durant to be amazing, it’s just we have 4 amazing players.

The “Sexy 1/2 turn SF” Tier:

SF RANK OVERALL RANK PLAYER, TEAM, AGE POS NOTE
3 8 Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL PG, SG, SF Over the last 26 games, Greek Freak went 18.8/8.4/7.5/1.5/1.9. Insanity! Shot 51.5% too. With Middleton gone, it adds more offensive onus on The Alphabet. I think it spells #8 value!
4 10 Kawhi Leonard, SA (25) SG, SF The metrics love him, most people agree maybe a smidge too much, and he still gets a little docked for not playing 80 games. But the multicat, huge steals, and great FG% improvement with more 3s can’t be overlooked.
5 11 LeBron James, CLE (31) SF, PF I feel like his dominant playoff run is clouding some judgment, as the Cavs are gonna coast harder than Usian Bolt in Olympic qualifiers. No need to push Bron, and the Cavs end with 3 games in the H2H semis and 4 in the finals, with back-to-backs in both. Might only get 4-5 games the pivotal final two weeks.
6 12 Paul Millsap, ATL (31) SF, PF More perimeter touches with Dwight clogging the lane, such an underrated commodity.
7 15 Paul George, IND (26) SG, SF Hard not to root for the guy bouncing back from the bad injury; played 81 games last year, set a huge career best in FT volume, and this is going to be a ridiculously paced team. Living up to the IND name!
8 17 Draymond Green, GS (26) SF, PF Takes a slight nudge down to the nards with the GSW Dream Team assemblage, but he should still be the same #Occupy we know and love, but could no longer bear children with…

The “Wings you might only 60 games out of or have uglier warts than Sarah Jessica Parker” Tier:

SF RANK OVERALL RANK PLAYER, TEAM, AGE POS NOTE
9 27 Jimmy Butler, CHI (26) SG, SF 67 games or fewer in the past 3 seasons, and now has USG hogs Wade and Rondo to ruin possessions rather than Rose. 2 is worse than 1… Still should be his team and a solid value though.
10 34 Carmelo Anthony, NY (32) SF, PF With the facilitating ineptitude of Rose and coming off a career high in dimes, I could see Melo be a sneaky 5.0 AST source. We know scoring will be there with bleh peripheral stats, but me likey if his name value sours his ADP too much.
11 38 Chandler Parsons, MEM (27) SF, PF 19.0/5.9/3.1/1.1/0.3 with an unreal 2.6 treys on 51.9% FG shooting his last 26 games. Yes, two straight seasons ending with knee issues, but I believe in Memphis believing in him. By the transitive property, I therefore believe in Parsons.
12 40 Jae Crowder, BOS (26) SF, PF The Boston Clam Crowder! Sexy 1.7 swipes from a forward and I don’t see a way he could finish much worse than the 32nd per-game 15-16 he had.
13 42 Klay Thompson, GS (26) SG, SF Takes the big hit amongst the Golden State Western All-Stars, and the D stats took a major step back last year as well. Back to being one of the NBA’s best ThrAGNOFs.
14 43 Gordon Hayward, UTA (26) SG, SF FG%, AST, STL and BLK all dropped last year, and now they have a competent PG. Love the player, but couldn’t rank him any higher.
15 47 Nicolas Batum, CHA (27) SF, PF A tad more upside for Frenchy with Lin gone, but he had a career-high in TO last year and always struggles in FG%, so those hurt him a tad.

The “Scorer’s delight! …and Ariza…” Tier:

SF RANK OVERALL RANK PLAYER, TEAM, AGE POS NOTE
16 50 Tobias Harris, ORL (24) SF, PF So underrated. After getting traded to Motown, the numbers all boosted up – better FG%, 3+ PPG, more FT volume, more 3s, and a much better AST:TO that went from 2.0:1.6 in ORL to 2.6:1.1 in D-town. Full off-season with his new crew, and this could be an awesome, metrics-friendly season.
17 57 DeMar DeRozan, TOR (27) SG, SF My original blurb was too good – “Why I didn’t like DeRozan last year – Pts went down, AST:TO took a huge step back, treys down, FG% down, and a bad groin injury was the main reason he missed 22 games. Why I like DeRozan this year – Pts went back up (23.5 – career high), AST:TO took a huge step forward (4.0:2.2, ironically the exact same as in 13-14), treys up, FG% up, and he only missed 4 games.”
18 60 Evan Fournier, ORL (23) SG, SF The Virgin! Also, don’t google what his last name means. Posted a career year going 15.4/2.8/2.7/1.2/0.0 with 2 treys a game and only 1.7 TO, and had some assist-binges as well, diming 3.7/per in April. No Dipo will mean more usage, and they desperately need his scoring!
19 65 Rudy Gay, SAC (30) SF, PF Gay only scores. Despite the real-life basketball metrics hating him though, he was 46th last year despite dropping from 3.7 to 1.7 dimes with Rondo hawgin’ it. No Rondo, mo’ dimes!

DOWN – This is looking like a messier and messier divorce, with Gay publicly putting out there he’s opting out next year. Virtually any trade is going to hurt, plus he has to deal with internal strife for however long he plays in 16-17 with the Kings.

20 66 Danilo Gallinari, DEN (28) SF Uggghhhhh, Gallo! Why can’t you stay healthy! A big sleeper of mine last year was working out pretty well until a kankle. He’s major trade bait, but I still love his game.
21 67 Trevor Ariza, HOU (31) SG, SF He fits certain builds REALLY well, and like Gortat is a metrics-friendly finisher every year, but I don’t think the D’Antoni effect really impacts Ariza as much. The ups and downs in FG% can crush you, unless you’re outright punting FG%.
22 69 Andrew Wiggins, MIN (21) SG, SF Obviously needs to make improvements, but at least he’s durable! Big scoring sources aren’t too plentiful past here.

The “Hodgepodge of sexy upside, safe metrics-whores, and Otto Porter is overrated!” Tier:

SF RANK OVERALL RANK PLAYER, TEAM, AGE POS NOTE
23 76 Aaron Gordon, ORL (21) SF, PF Vogel – “I’ma use A-Gord like P-George!” Me – erection.
24 77 Robert Covington, PHI (25) SF, PF FG% remains a big issue, but his post-ASB got to 31:10 MPG with an absurd 3.3 treys and gorgeous 15.6/7.0/1.5/1.5/0.6 slash. Another strong fit for FG% punt.
25 79 Kent Bazemore, ATL (27) SG, SF Fell off a smidge last year as the minutes I think caught up to him a bit, but he offers a very sexy metrics-friendly game, and could be a huge get if he can maintain across 82 games.
26 83 Wesley Matthews, DAL (29) SG, SF Even off the awful injury, played 78 games at 33:54 MPG in 15-16. Mark Cuban said Matthews couldn’t even dunk half of last year, but he’s apparently having a great, healthy offseason. A great unsexy name for sexy upside.
27 85 Luol Deng, LAL (31) SF, PF 15.2/8.1/2.5/1.2/0.5 over the final 28 games, with 1.1 treys shooting 48.4% with only 1.4 TO. Yes – no Bosh – but it’s not like the Lakers have a murderers row up front. Another unsexy name that I think will fall too far.
28 86 Thaddeus Young, IND (28) SF, PF I think he’s going to be a little overdrafted, as his better numbers have come on awful PHI and BKN teams. I’m not quite sure how he’ll fit into the Pacers up-tempo system, as he’s likely the #5 option.
29 91 DeMarre Carroll, TOR (30) SF, PF In a limited sample due to injuries, 3PTM and STL were both career highs, At least all of his injury issues last year didn’t lead to some big surgery. I could see a nice big bounceback.
30 93 Rodney Hood, UTA (23) SG, SF Loves – 2 treys and 2.2-2.5 FT for 86% freebie clip. Hates – 0.9/0.2 in Stl/Blk and 2.7:1.9 AST:TO. I worry the dimes and steals are a little overrated and he’s more ThrAGNOF than not, but I do still like him!
31 98 Justice Winslow, MIA (20) SF, PF I’m admittedly a little iffy with this rank, but the combo of 0.9 STL and only 1.2 TO as a rookie excites me, as well as an expanded role. FT% is a little bit of an issue, but I think he can surprise, especially if no Bosh.
32 100 Jabari Parker, MIL (21) SF, PF An unreal 18.8/6.2/2.2/1.1/0.3 line over his last 29 games, which I originally felt was unrepeatable and blah without threes but…
UP – Now no Duchess, so there’s a legit shot he could push for 20 PPG. With the added rebounds and still some youthful upside, I’m a buyer now.
33 101 Otto Porter, WAS (23) SF There are some rankings and pre-ranks that are out of control for Porter, who was barely ownable when Beal was on the court – he only spiked when Beal was hurt.

The “Getting into the late rounds, stat-targeting Tier:”

SF RANK OVERALL RANK PLAYER, TEAM, AGE POS NOTE
34 103 Matt Barnes, SAC (36) SF, PF One of my favorite late round staples, Barnes follows Joerger – who apparently loves him – to SAC, where he is going to play both F positions. 1/1/1 3/STL/BLK gonna be tough to find any later!
35 104 Marcus Morris, DET (27) SF, PF Not flashy, but only has missed 3 games the last 3 seasons, and offers a nice well-rounded scoring boost.
36 106 Marvin Williams, CHA (30) SF, PF As metrics-whorey as it comes, with only 0.8 TO last year in a spread line. I don’t know if I buy 45+ FG% again or the 1.0 BLK though…
37 110 Will Barton, DEN (25) SG, SF People are being way too chill on Will the thrill! 5.8 REB, 2.5 AST, 0.9/0.5 STL/BLK, and 1.4 treys as ancillary stats to the scoring is nothing to sneeze at, and I think he gets a similar MPG role, even with everyone healthy and the new wing rooks.
38 114 Harrison Barnes, DAL (24) SF, PF Doesn’t hit enough treys or bring enough D-stats, but maybe can get to 18 or 19 a night in Big D.
39 115 Evan Turner, POR (27) SG, SF Both Turner’s AST and AST:TO took massive steps forward in Boston, but nothing else really jumps off the page. I imagine a similar role in POR.

The “Late round flier” Tier:

SF RANK OVERALL RANK PLAYER, TEAM, AGE POS NOTE
40 125 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN (21) SG, SF Had a 7.6/7.7/1.6/1.9/0.4 9 game stretch pre-injury, and BKN needs him to be their SG of the future.
41 127 Danny Green, SA (29) SG, SF We saw how fickle metrics-whore guys can be – didn’t hit his 3s and it destroyed his value last year. Could bounce back a little.
42 128 Nikola Mirotic, CHI (25) SF, PF I’d be much more intrigued if they didn’t bring in Wade squeezing out SF minutes as I don’t think he’s a great fit at PF due to defensive issues.
43 129 Kyle Korver, ATL (35) SG, SF After shooting treys in the high-40%s for a long stretch, 39.9% last year. A healthy offseason instead of recovering from two surgeries including one on his elbow – I think a sneaky bounceback ThrAGNOF.
44 131 Michael KIdd-Gilchrist, CHA (23) SF In his 6 full games before the [re]injury last year, he was a pretty saucy 13.5/7.0/1.2/0.3/0.5 shooting 52.6%. Sure a small sample, but he’s still really young and had big improvements the past two seasons. Just needs to keep those shoulders in those sockets!
45 135 Michael Beasley, MIL (27) SF, PF In only 18 MPG, Beasley went 12.8/4.9 with a usable-enough 0.6/0.5 STL/BLK in his stint in Houston, I already liked him as a sleeper and then he gets traded to a BETTER situation! They obviously need scoring, but unfortunately he’s not a huge perimeter shooter, so I’m not sure exactly what his role will be.
46 141 Al-Farouq Aminu, POR (26) SF, PF I don’t buy that a guy had a FG% of 41.6 – right where it was last year – while going from 1.7 to 4.3 treys attempted. 36.1% from deep seems like an epic fluke to me, and his ups and downs make him too annoying to own for me to invest.
47 143 Josh Richardson, MIA (23) SG, SF I wasn’t fully buying into the hype, as he shot 53.3% from deep (!!!) in the second half last year during that huge run. I saw some regression coming …andddddd, he tears his knee in offseason workouts. Ugh! This is going to cost him an epicly important training camp and preseason, but I still have him on the fringe of draft-worthy as an IL slot, since RCL leagues have 2 IL spots.
48 145 J.R. Smith, CLE (31) SG, SF 12.4 Pts and 2.6 treys we saw last year I think regress with a full season of Kyrie. But the Cavs do play a ton of off nights, so that could help his ThrAGNOF ownability a tier above the streamers.
49 147 Courtney Lee, NYK (30) SG, SF Pretty lame last roster-filler, but he contributes STL/3s with virtually no TO.
50 149 Jared Dudley, PHO (31) SG, SF Probably a forgotten name come draft day, but did go 10.1/3.9/2.7/1.2/0.2 over 39 games while Wiz had injuries, with 1.7 treys and shooting almost 50%. Has a chance to replicate that as the Suns starting SF or PF.
51 154 Omri Casspi, SAC (28) SF, PF A key FT punt target – Casspi hits 3s and shoots a good % while having a tough time at the stripe. A Gay trade locked in stone will boost him a good bit for me.
52 157 Mirza Teletovic, MIL (31) SF, PF Was going to be a ThrAGNOF off the bench for the Bucks with a murky outlook for minutes; alas, Middleton is out most of the year, and the Bucks DESPERATELY need perimeter shooting. They’ll find a way to play Teletovic a good bit, but I’m not going too crazy… ThrAGNOF!
53 158 Bojan Bogdanovic, BKN (27) SG, SF ThrAGNOF! Nets need wing scoring/3PTM in the worst way, but the rest of his stats are so empty to rank him higher, even with the Pts/3s upside.

The “Undraftable in 12ers” Tier:

SF RANK OVERALL RANK PLAYER, TEAM, AGE POS NOTE
54 161 Arron Afflalo, SAC (30) SG, SF Could be a 15 PPG source, but is blah everywhere else.
55 162 Stanley Johnson, DET (20) SG, SF Obviously didn’t have the rookie season the buzz was hyping – shooting 37.5% and turning it over an obscene 1.6/game in only 23 minutes – but StanVan wants to limit KCP and Marcus a little, and StanJo can play the 2, 3 or 4. Hopefully he can improve if given more minutes in year 2.
56 164 Terrence Jones, NO (24) SF, PF What’s a lot sexier than Brow/Asik? Brow/Tjones! But then Brow would get pounded by centers, and it would be the most brittle frontline in history… There is a rapport between the two from their Kentucky days, but it’s a pure spec final pick that might not have enough MPG to be usable out of the gate.
57 169 Tony Allen, MEM (34) SG, SF Steals! And that’s it! Streambait.
58 170 Brandon Ingram, LAL (19) SF I question his perimeter game, and role off the bench behind Deng and Randle as a SF/PF. I think it’ll be a rocky road to start the season – let’s get ice cream!
59 172 Dion Waiters, MIA (24) SG, SF Might get snagged as a sleeper in a lot of leagues, but I’ve always been bleh on his game. Not enough 3s for a bad FG%, I’m not sure the MPG he’ll get, and not like Richardson is out too long. Steals get a little overlooked for him though.
60 176 Solomon Hill, NO (25) SG, SF No Reke gives Hill a chance to play some starting minutes out of the gate, and over the final 5 games of 15-16, Hill went 15/7.2/2.2/2.0/0.2 on the Pacers. Very small sample, but there’s talent there.
61 180 Gerald Henderson, PHI (28) SG, SF Blah scoring. As empty as his hair folicles.
62 186 Jerami Grant, PHI (22) SF, PF Yes, the deck is heavily stacked against him, but 0.7/1.6 STL/BLK in only 26:50 last year! Might have a shot at usability if he gets the run/there’s a trade preseason.
63 187 CJ Miles, IND (29) SG, SF Averaged a whopping 2.2 treys last year! But with PG13 now locked in at SF minutes instead of stretch-4 minutes, it’ll be tough to see Miles get the same MPG.
64 188 T.J. Warren, PHO (23) SF Initially not in my ranks, I had some question marks on his health off foot surgery. But it sounds like he’s healthy and there’s an opening for SF minutes with Tucker out. Not huge on his game and I think Booker gets some SF run though…
65 189 Jeremy Lamb, CHA (24) SG, SF Lin is back in NY and MKG has balky shoulders – there’s a shot for a little added run! Yes, he’s inconsistent and the coaching staff calls him out on it, but they paid him!
66 191 Joe Johnson, UTA (35) SG, SF I could see Exum, Burks, JJ, Lyles as a really entertaining 2nd unit for the Jazz…
67 192 Jaylen Brown, BOS (19) SF After only 1.4 combined STL+BLK in college, 2.3 STL and 0.8 BLK in 6 games in Summer play. I’m not seeing a ton of run here though, but there’s some talk they could play him at stretch-4. Could be enough minutes for him to be deep league usable if so.
68 199 Wesley Johnson, LAC (29) SG, SF 0.7/1.1 STL/BLK last year, but was really up and down. Will get a little boost if The Truth retires.
69 ⇓ ? Ben Simmons, PHI (20) SF, PF Bad FG% and high TO – he proved that outlook in a small Summer Ball sample – but dimes from PF could be mad interesting.
DOWN – I haven’t done my re-ranks yet, but I think he’ll stay in the top-200, barely, after recently breaking his foot. Terrible news for the Sixers, who aren’t catching any breaks during their “process”…

 

  1. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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    Hey JB,

    Man is it a rough fantasy year for me. Injuries keep stacking up. My football team is already in the cellar because I lost watkins, woodhead, allen, and Rodgers and Cobb have been terrible. Im two feet into basketball already!

    What guys would you target in a no-%’s league? I have a few guys in mind that are a bit underrated, but we only count 3s, pts, reb, ast, stl, blk, and TO.

    Thanks! Cant wait for the end of Oct to start our season!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bryce Krispie Treats: Eeeeeesh, yeah that’s a rough start on the gridiron!

      Interesting, def the FT punt guys since they’re low TO, ala DJ and Drummond. Cousins even with the TO issues go up. Deffffff the ThrAGNOF 3pt shooters all get upgrades. COVINGTON! Haha. Can’t wait either man!

  2. Scott says:
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    Is he flopping or tripping over his beard?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scott: I’m gonna go with, tickling over his beard!

  3. Jon Proudfoot says:
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    I created a lovely new RCL this morning – ‘The Effing Catalina Wine Mixer’ – and no one has joined it yet! Draft is this Weds 5th at 8.30 ET. Please join as I’m starting to feel like the leper commissioner!

    Link is on the spreadsheet a couple of Razzball posts ago.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jon Proudfoot: Sweet, thanks man! I’ll rock this league in the intro of the PF tiers for the lead tomo too

      • Jon Proudfoot says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks that’s awesome. Step Brothers themed team names encouraged! I’m Prestige Worldwide of course!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Jon Proudfoot: I’m putting it on the lead for tomorrow too, awesome name! If you get to 11 at the last minute, hit me up, I can be an emergency “Boats n Hoes” team

          • Jon Proudfoot says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Well it would be a shame not to use that team name! Thanks for the help – it’s going to be close.

  4. Marc says:
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    What do you think about this team? Went Punt FG and probaby TO?

    1 Harden
    2 Kemba
    3 Poison Goose!
    4 Pau Gasol
    5 Rubio
    6 Gallo
    7 Gortat
    8 Carroll
    9 Barton (Panicked a bit on picks 8/9 )
    10 Joakim
    11 Deron Williams
    12 Mason Plumlee
    13 Marcus Morris

    Tried to stick with the tank FG after picking Kemba. I was lost on picks 8/9 so not sure how I did there, I loved Barton last year but maybe payed too much to get him. Any advice of thoughts on the team?

    • kb says:
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      @Marc: v interesting. i am in a keeper league where i have Harden / Kemba / Poison Goose and Favors (close enough to Pau) and have been toying with FG tank after that. (don’t think you need TO tank as Kemba and Rubio both have low a/to). I have been targeting Rubio, Covington, Nurkic, Mirotic, Gallo, Elf, Sullinger, etc. the problem is it’s hard to get enough blocks and boards to not tank those cats as well…

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Marc: @kb: Poison Goose! We’ve talked about on the Pod how we like the Harden/Goose combo. Yeah Barton feels high, like Carroll though, Gallo was a great pick too. I think your BLK are still a little light, but I’m liking everything else on this squad! Yeah Nurk and Covington are great FG% punt guys, Noel I like in FG punt, but you’re gonna have to indeed get a few bigs that don’t 100% fit

  5. darrylmontales says:
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    i did not see ersan illasova in your ranks. it seems you also have slept on him. he is still in the rank 200 for me. when healthy i project him at around 10 ppg 5 rpg and 1.4 threes per game. given the situation he’s in. he can grab the starting spot and produced more.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @darrylmontales: Nope he’s not ranked for me. It’s been too long since he’s been healthy with a consistent role for me to buy. Plus there’s no way he can play SF. He’s playing in preseason behind Sabonis with Adams and Kanter sitting. I’ll take the under on those numbers, but not by much, in a reserve role. Thing is, no d stats, no FT volume help, so those numbers are dime a dozen

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