It’s time for tiers! And with PG, it’s top-tiers or fears. It’s top tier or Britney Spears! Top tier or… Or… Eh I got nothing for a PG who rhymes with that… Top tier or your team takes it in the rear! Yes, PG is rife with a precipitous falloff after the first class, with a dive off a cliff that is like the third act of The Abyss. Underrated movie! Ed Harris is the man. And sure, I guess some omniscient underwater aliens (…are they aliens?) could do enough to resurrect your team from the depths, but I’m not going to pass on the top end guys and hope for a deus ex machina ending. Well, the ending wasn’t quite deus ex machina, but it wasn’t the best… And I doubt waiting and relying on Rondo or the rookies will result in any sort of happy ending… Poor phrasing! Here’s the top PG for the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball season, and we’ll be putting together positional tiers based on Yahoo position eligibility every day this week:
The “Please, God, give me a high enough pick to get on the studs” Tier:
| PG RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Stephen Curry, GSW | PG, SG | I have a feeling he’s going to be a consensus 1 or 2 – still very close between these top 3 – but there’s some concern to the minutes as Golden State blows the scrubbos out. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .480/.900/3.5/24.5/4.3/7.8/1.9/0.2/3.3 :34 | |||
| 2 | 6 | Chris Paul, LAC | PG | CP3 is equally as locked into #6 for me. Obvious awesome dimes, low TO, nothing is unreaptable. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .480/.880/1.6/18.0/4.3/10.5/2.0/0.1/2.3 :34 | |||
| 3 | 7 | Damian Lillard, POR | PG | Time to start getting saucy with it! With one of the most horrific starting 2-5 runing mates a PG has ever had in the history of the NBA (well, maybe the Sixers at times last year!). the Blazers are going to tell Lillard to try and put up MVP numbers in a tank season. Monster points/treys, a good bit of dimes, the steals have become respectable, but it’ll cost a high-volume FG% and a few too many TO. The upside is too big to pass here. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .425/.860/2.7/26.0/4.6/7.5/1.2/0.3/3.0 :36 | |||
| 4 | 8 | Russell Westbrook, OKC | PG | Westbrook’s 2nd half was one of the most unreal post-ASB runs we’ve ever seen, but obviously with Durant back, those unreal dimes and a good chunk of shots are going away. Up a few spots in 8-cat, that’s for sure! |
| Slim’s Projection: | .440/.820/1.2/23.0/6.3/7.5/2.0/0.3/3.9 :34 | |||
| 5 | 9 | John Wall, WAS | PG | Regression in the developing 3-pt game hurt, and high-TO originally had me keeping him outside the top-10, but now flipping him ahead of Klay, Boogie and Kawhi due to thinning of top-tier PG |
| Slim’s Projection: | .440/.800/1.0/19.5/4.5/10.6/1.8/0.6/3.7 :36 |
The “Oh crap it gets awful quick, how high should I reach for Eric Bledsoe?!” Tier:
| PG RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 19 | Eric Bledsoe, PHX | PG, SG | Swinging for the fences, Bledsoe is by far my favorite of the mid-round PG and has his best G running mate in Knight replacing Dragic/IT2. Will need some monster stats and a slight relief in TO for this to happen… But the dramatic drop off of PG has him even more attractive as an early target, plus Markieff Morris’s drama could mean even more shots. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .450/.785/1.1/17.5/5.3/6.5/1.5/0.6/3.5 :36 |
The “I hope the run on PG doesn’t have me reaching too hard for the mid-round PGs” Tier:
| PG RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 33 | Kyle Lowry, TOR | PG | Litany of injuries through his career, tried to gut through a hand issue last year and FG% dropped to 37.3% and dimes down to 5.4. Tension with coach Dwane Casey isn’t helping. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .415/.810/2.0/18.0/4.7/6.4/1.4/0.2/2.4 :34 | |||
| 8 | 34 | Jeff Teague, ATL | PG | Only played 30:31 MPG as he has one of the best backup PG behind him to clean up blowout minutes. I don’t see that changing much. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .455/.850/1.1/17.5/2.5/6.9/1.7/0.4/2.9 :32 | |||
| 9 | 38 | Goran Dragic, MIA | PG, SG | A full offseason to gel with the Heat, got more dimes in Miami, nice out-of-position FG% help a well-rounded PG game. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .500/.790/1.0/17.0/3.5/5.5/1.1/0.2/2.2 :34 | |||
| 10 | 40 | Reggie Jackson, DET | PG, SG | I’m suspecting he could be a buzzy draft pick a few spots higher (edit – Yahoo pre-ranks have him 102 – what the hey?!), but his popcorn trip-dub stats get a little overvalued as he is low in 3s and steals with fairly high TO. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .440/.830/1.1/17.5/4.5/8.6/1.0/0.2/3.2 :34 | |||
| 11 | 41 | Elfrid Payton, ORL | PG | Final 21:12.4/5.6/8.7/2.4/0.5 with only 2.8 TO and 44.8% FG 58.8% FT. Even with more touches in that stretch, only 1.9-3.2 FT a game. Sure he doesn’t hit many treys either, but he can fit a lot of teams in this range. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .440/.575/0.4/11.5/4.8/8.5/2.1/0.4/2.7 :34 | |||
| 12 | 43 | Kemba Walker, CHA | PG | Cut the TO to a ridiculously low 1.6 a game, sure it should go back up a tad with a few more minutes, but with the dimes and treys he chips in, can go unloved. Needs to shoot better than last year (38.5%). |
| Slim’s Projection: | .400/.830/1.5/18.5/3.7/5.4/1.4/0.5/2.0 :36 | |||
| 13 | 44 | Victor Oladipo, ORL | PG, SG | Took some convincing from Slim to get him top-50, but should play a ton of minutes and contribute in a lot of areas. I wish he had a few less TO and wasn’t more a pure-SG, plus I think he’ll be overdrafted with some buzz. Not a great deep shooter at the eye level (33.9% out there last year even seems high). |
| Slim’s Projection: | .440/.820/1.3/19.0/4.3/4.3/1.8/0.4/2.8 :36 | |||
| 14 | 45 | Monta Ellis, IND | PG, SG | Consistency in both stats and staying healthy, his steals can very often be overlooked. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .450/.765/1.1/18.5/2.8/4.2/1.7/0.3/2.6 :34 | |||
| 15 | 46 | Ricky Rubio, MIN | PG | This is the last time, Ricky! Still only 24, I could see some dynamite games with the dimes as he leads an exposive offense with great steals. Just needs to stay healthy… Gasp… Rubio… Healthy… |
| Slim’s Projection: | .380/.800/0.7/10.5/4.6/8.9/1.9/0.1/3.0 :32 |
The “Time to get reachy and get a buzzy, upside-y PG/Hope I avoid the old fart vets” Tier:
| PG RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 48 | Isaiah Thomas, BOS | PG | There are murmurs that IT2/3 could start, which would make him a really interesting upside selection. A name that could move quickly through early preseason, either up or down. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .425/.860/2.1/17.5/2.2/4.8/0.8/0.1/2.4 :28 | |||
| 17 | 51 | Kyrie Irving, CLE | PG, SG | Recovery from the broken kneecap moving very slow, reports had surfaced he could be out until January, but they seem to be refuted now. Either way, it seems unlikely he’s playing for the first few weeks at the least, with a very tight minutes restriction once he is back. And even when he does finally suit up, Mo Williams gives the Cavs a much better backup PG to limit Kyrie’s minutes to ease him in. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .465/.865/1.9/20.5/3.2/5.3/1.5/0.3/2.4 :34 | |||
| 18 | 53 | Mike Conley, MEM | PG | I didn’t realize I was going to be the anti-Conley guy, but the downward trends are enough for me to avoid. Steals going down, dimes down, starting to miss games… Not buying the “playing for a contract” bounceback narrative. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .445/.830/1.5/16.0/3.0/5.9/1.4/0.2/2.2 :34 | |||
| 19 | 57 | Jordan Clarkson, LAL | PG | 15.8/4.2/5.0/1.1/0.2 with 0.9 treys and 84% from the stripe as a starter – but love the mere 2.2 TO leading a horrible team. I don’t think Russell becomes the main facilitator, Clarkson to give a solid multi-cat line. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .450/.825/1.0/15.5/4.3/5.1/1.1/0.2/2.1 :32 | |||
| 20 | 60 | Brandon Knight, PHX | PG, SG | Dropped the TO in PHX, cranked a ton of treys, and while the FG% in his brief stint for the Suns was awful, I think he can gel well with Bledsoe. Markieff possibly forcing a trade gives some upside. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .420/.830/2.0/16.0/3.0/4.7/1.2/0.1/2.2 :32 |
The “I REALLY hope I avoid any of these vets, and REALLY hope these aren’t my 2nd PG” Tier:
| PG RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 65 | Dwyane Wade, MIA | PG, SG | Hopefully this prices me out, but when he’s healthy he should be a top-50 player. Do I even need to mention why he’s lower then…? |
| Slim’s Projection: | .475/.770/0.4/20.5/3.4/4.1/1.1/0.3/3.0 :32 | |||
| 22 | 66 | George Hill, IND | PG, SG | After easing in, Hill was playing at a career-best level in the second half last year. But now George is back, Monta is brought in, no way we see those post-ASB numbers this year. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .455/.800/1.6/15.0/3.8/4.6/1.0/0.3/1.7 :32 | |||
| 23 | 71 | Deron Williams, DAL | PG | Showed in starts last year he can still be usable, although his FG% was sub-40%. 55 starts at 32:53 MPG have me thinking he could hold up most of the year on those kankles. Kyrie’s injury shed a little more light on a really thin PG draft class this year. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .415/.820/1.5/14.5/3.4/6.8/0.9/0.2/2.6 :32 | |||
| 24 | 72 | Derrick Rose, CHI | PG | There’s no way I could feel good having Rose on my teams. Even in his MVP season he wasn’t a fantasy elite, and still projects to have way too many TO and microscopic steals. Pass. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .420/.820/1.5/18.0/3.3/5.4/0.7/0.3/3.3 :30 | |||
| 25 | 75 | Tyreke Evans, NO | PG, SG | Can still be useful when Jrue is healthy, popcorn stats are pretty – high TO, low treys, and a scary FT% last year not so much… |
| Slim’s Projection: | .440/.745/0.7/16.5/5.2/6.0/1.2/0.5/2.9 :34 | |||
| 26 | 78 | Jrue Holiday, NO | PG | The injury risk is just as high as the 40-year-old vets, I just can’t justify a higher pick even though he’s by far the best per-game player in this range. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .440/.815/1.1/14.0/3.5/6.5/1.5/0.4/2.3 :30 |
The “PG worth drafting with some upside” Tier:
| PG RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 81 | Alec Burks, UTA | PG, SG | Exum injury opens up a huge gap at PG, as Burks should see starting SG minutes and backup PG minutes. There’s upside in steals as the Jazz are a defensive juggernaut, and a healthy shoulder could translate into a lot more treys. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .435/.785/1.2/16.5/4.3/3.2/1.0/0.2/2.0 :34 | |||
| 28 | 85 | Ty Lawson, HOU | PG | If he slides this far, I think there’s value. Main risk is yet another off-the-court incident, but here’s to hoping he can turn his life around. Should get at least a little run with Harden and the starters, then all the 2nd unit mins. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .440/.770/1.0/13.5/2.6/6.1/1.0/0.1/1.9 :28 | |||
| 29 | 89 | Jarrett Jack, BKN | PG, SG | The Pts/Ast should be there, but steals are too low for a G and his FG% too low for not making enough treys. It should be his show to run, but it’s got a really low ceiling. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .435/.860/0.7/15.5/3.6/6.3/0.9/0.2/3.1 :34 | |||
| 30 | 93 | Darren Collison, SAC | PG | George Karl has said Colly and Rondo will play some minutes together, and in a league embracing more and more combo guard sets, he could play more minutes than you’d expect. Rondo on a 1-year deal could be moved as well. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .460/.815/1.1/15.0/2.9/4.8/1.3/0.2/2.2 :30 | |||
| 31 | 101 | Emmanuel Mudiay, DEN | PG | %s and TO could be pretty bad as the raw Mudiay is handed the keys, in a MCW-esque way. But MCW was usable most of his rookie season. Taking the risk and the dimes at this point. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .390/.575/0.4/14.5/4.6/5.9/1.2/0.3/3.2 :32 | |||
| 32 | 104 | Michael Carter-Williams, ML | PG | Massive drops in REB/AST/3PTM moving to MIL, FG% went up a tad, but the TO were still dramatically too high in lower minutes. Greivis Vasquez will push for a few extra PG minutes. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .420/.715/0.2/13.5/4.1/5.7/1.7/0.4/3.0 :28 | |||
| 33 | 107 | Rajon Rondo, SAC | PG | Speaking of worth a shot, I’d be fine with the gamble on Rondo at this point outside the top 100. Maybe he starts hitting his FT and gets the dimes to come way back, worst case you drop him a few weeks in. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .420/.550/0.3/8.5/4.4/6.7/1.3/0.1/2.8 :28 | |||
| 34 | 110 | Tony Parker, SA | PG | Dump the ball to Aldridge for a deep mid-range, to Kawhi on a drive or Duncan for a bank shot, it’s a nice combo of teammates to have a solid AST season in 70 games. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .480/.780/0.5/14.0/2.0/5.0/0.5/0.1/2.0 :28 | |||
| 35 | 111 | D’Angelo Russell, LAL | PG | TO and rookie inconsistency will be really frustrating, and I see Clarkson being a bigger facilitator. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .415/.760/1.4/13.5/4.4/3.8/1.1/0.2/3.0 :30 |
The “Last rounds/last pick flier” Tier:
| PG RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 113 | Mo Williams, CLE | PG, SG | Irving’s slow recovery is going to open huge minutes for Mo early, and he’ll even play a pretty substantial role with Kyrie back as backup PG and combo G. He’s going to contribute more early, but will become a big guy to try and flip, especially to the Kyrie owner if you nab him before Kyrie’s owner can handcuff. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .405/.865/1.4/13.0/2.2/4.8/0.5/0.1/2.3 :26 | |||
| 37 | 114 | Marcus Smart, BOS | PG | Boston making him only shoot threes is tanking his FG%, not enough dimes from a PG. Steals will be nice, but I question the role especially since I’m high on IT 2/3. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .400/.720/1.4/10.0/3.8/3.2/1.9/0.4/1.5 :30 | |||
| 38 | 115 | Trey Burke, UTA | PG | Exum’s torn ACL has given Burke yet another chance, but we haven’t seen him run with a starting PG job yet in his career. Worth a late round gamble pick. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .390/.780/1.8/12.0/2.4/4.4/1.0/0.2/1.7 :30 | |||
| 39 | 117 | C.J. McCollum, POR | PG, SG | A chance to move up a tad if the opening night starter, but 15.7/3.4/2.4/1.6/0.3 in per-36 last year with 2 treys isn’t exactly teeming with potential superstardom. I’ll likely let someone else overreach. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .430/.810/1.8/14.0/3.2/2.4/1.4/0.2/1.8 :30 | |||
| 40 | 118 | Avery Bradley, BOS | PG, SG | The only Celtics starter you can really feel good about getting 30+ MPG, he can provide a few late PTS/3PTM/STL to round out your roster. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .435/.795/1.6/14.0/3.3/1.9/1.1/0.2/1.5 :32 | |||
| 41 | 120 | Jose Calderon, TOR | PG | Minutes cap at 26-28 hurts, but there’s not much else out there as a late source of AST/3PTM. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .435/.880/1.3/8.0/2.8/4.3/0.6/0.1/1.6 :26 | |||
| 42 | 131 | Jerian Grant, NYK | PG | Fits well as both the 1 and the 2, I just don’t know if he can be a huge NBA contributor just yet. Minutes look to be there, which makes him worth a draft pick in 12ers. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .415/.775/0.8/8.5/2.2/4.1/0.8/0.2/1.7 :24 | |||
| 43 | 133 | Greivis Vasquez, MIL | PG, SG | The Twerp got picked up for a lottery-protected first-rounder, but that still ain’t too cheap. Will challenge MCW for a few minutes, if not the bulk of minutes when MCW is cold. Plus can play some combo 2. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .415/.810/1.3/9.5/2.4/4.2/0.6/0.1/1.8 :24 | |||
| 44 | 134 | Dennis Schroder, ATL | PG | In a 10-game 29:13 MPG starting sample – 14.1/3.4/7.7/0.7/0.0. Teague is usually durable, but I expect them to play more combo G this year as a tandem. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .425/.780/0.8/12.5/2.8/4.9/0.7/0.1/2.1 :26 | |||
| 45 | 136 | Tony Wroten, PHI | PG, SG | Wroten is off a partially torn ACL and might not even start. Then there’s the awful %s and TO. I expect him to take less 3s since he’s awful from deep, but then again Noel and Okafor are paint guys for a really weird offensive outlook. Given PG has dried up, I’d take a last-round flier and see what happens. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .405/.650/0.8/14.5/2.8/4.9/1.4/0.2/3.3 :28 |
The “Undraftable in a 12er” Tier:
| PG RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 154 | Langston Galloway, NYK | PG, SG | Nice D-League find for the Knicks, looks to be the odd man out of the Calderon/Grant/Afflalo minutes allocation. Can still find his was into 1/3/1 3PTM/AST/STL. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .405/.800/1.0/9.0/3.2/2.6/0.8/0.2/1.0 :24 | |||
| 47 | 155 | Zach LaVine, MIN | PG | Dynamic upside, might not see good minutes until K-Mart is dealt. Will be impossible to hold in a 12er for the whole first half, but is the oft-injured Rubio’s backup as well. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .430/.845/0.6/8.5/2.3/2.9/0.6/0.1/1.7 :20 | |||
| 48 | 162 | Aaron Brooks, CHI | PG | Any backup to Rose is worth owning as a handcuff, and he was decent in spot starts last year. They could still play Hinrich at starting PG though… |
| Slim’s Projection: | .410/.815/1.7/10.5/2.4/1.1/0.6/0.2/1.4 :20 | |||
| 49 | 169 | Patty Mills, SA | PG | Really struggled off the shoulder surgery last year, should see a bump in minutes with Cojo gone and a better team – starters to sit a good bit. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .425/.840/1.4/9.0/2.1/1.8/0.7/0.1/0.8 :20 | |||
| 50 | 172 | Lou Williams, LAL | PG, SG | More ThrAGNOF! Steals and FT volume are going to go way down, along with a few minutes from last year. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .400/.850/1.7/12.0/1.8/2.1/0.9/0.1/1.4 :24 | |||
| 51 | 174 | Archie Goodwin, PHX | PG, SG | Likely the main G off the bench, Goodwin finally showed some flashes last year. Will have some dynamic nights off the pine. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .420/.745/0.6/11.5/3.9/2.4/0.9/0.4/1.9 :24 | |||
| 52 | 185 | Patrick Beverley, HOU | PG, SG | Originally had him 199, but with PG thin and still a pretty solidified role, can chip in some 3PTM/AST/STL as a streamer or a late pick in deepers that will be overlooked. Lawson is one final setback away from not playing ever again either. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .410/.780/1.7/8.5/3.2/2.7/1.0/0.3/1.2 :26 | |||
| 53 | 186 | Kendall Marshall, PHI | PG | Getting a multi-year deal is interesting, especially since he fits with the Sixers starters better than Wroten (pass-first, can hit 3s). He’s still a long way away from getting rumored to start though, and won’t be ready to start the season, but he’s intriguing and will be worth watching. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .405/.710/0.8/5.5/1.7/4.9/0.7/0.1/1.7 :20 | |||
| 54 | 189 | Raul Neto, UTA | PG | Slim vehemently disagrees, but I think Neto is a solid player and brings the exact opposite as Trey Burke – facilitating and good defense. They would never start a raw player over Burke who fits that description… Oh wait, they did it last year! Deep, deep sleeper. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .385/.700/0.2/4.5/1.0/1.8/0.4/0.1/0.9 :12 | |||
| 55 | 194 | Jameer Nelson, DEN | PG | Nelson is going to surprise with his role, as the Nugs signed him for three more years to mentor Mudiay. When the raw rook is mad cold, Nelson will play big minutes. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .435/.780/1.2/8.0/1.8/3.6/0.6/0.1/1.7 :20 |
Dropped out since the last rankings update: Brandon Jennings
