Ah, the big boys. Remember when they used to say you should build your franchise around a center? I actually have no idea if they said that, Patrick Ewing and Hakeem the Dream were peaking before my time! But it did seem to be the focus of the NBA, as then it shifted to Shaq and his Kazaam-type activity. Now the big slow C is the way of the past, with fantasy’s best C a do-it-all wet dream of gorgeous fantasy-a-tude. I’m just making up words I’m so in love! The best microcosm of this shift has been the oft-commented Luminescent Lithuanian, who is so hard to rank if the Raptors keep their big fellah mired in a 26 MPG role. We want to stretch the ball more! Ugh, frickin’ rotations and less minutes going around! Matty’s Minutes Men article is just depressing, I want to see guys go 40+ again. I’m getting rambly – Monty Python get on with it! – here’s the top C for the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball season:
The “You can crash my party any time Brow” Tier: (sad I know that reference, what happens when your wife listens to completely different music!)
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Anthony Davis, NO | PF, C | Fantasy’s unquestioned per-game titan, fantasy rightfully questions the durability. He’s going to add in a few deep balls and Gentry wants him to have even more O touches. Viva El Brow! |
| Slim’s Projection: | .515/.810/0.2/26.0/10.5/2.4/1.4/3.0/1.6 :36 |
The “Delicious, scrumptious pairings of big men with an elite first-round PG” Tier:
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 10 | DeMarcus Cousins, SAC | PF, C | These last 3 are all razor thin, but Boogie takes a huge hit on your TO, and that’s without your team having a PG. That said, he was playing some of his best ball in the 2nd half last year. Now has Rondo to facilitate without stealing shots, along with Willie Cauley-Stein to take some defensive pressure off. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .475/.770/0/25.0/12.5/3.2/1.5/1.7/4.0 :34 | |||
| 3 | 12 | Paul Millsap, ATL | PF, C | Under appreciated for three seasons now, he should see another small step forward in the perimeter game with DeMarre Carroll out of town. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .475/.755/1.2/18.0/8.0/3.2/1.8/1.0/2.3 :34 | |||
| 4 | 14 | Rudy Gobert, UTA | C | Mosnieur Elbow! Steiffel Tower! The Big French Nickname! Going to provide crazy big man stats, with an acceptable FT%. Way above the true “FT-punt” bigs. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .585/.650/0/12.0/12.5/1.8/1.0/2.9/1.8 :34 | |||
| 5 | 17 | Blake Griffin, LAC | PF, C | Nothing seems unrepeatable from last year, love the emerging dimes and improving FT stroke. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .505/.740/0.3/22.5/7.9/5.3/1.0/0.5/2.3 :36 | |||
| 6 | 18 | Serge Ibaka, OKC | PF, C | Blocks have fallen 4 straight years from 3.7 to 2.4, I don’t know how many treys he takes with Enes Kanter taking so many mid-range opportunities and Durant back. Swats should improve a tad, FG% certainly to go up from last year. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .515/.810/0.7/15.0/8.0/0.9/0.5/2.7/1.5 :32 |
The “Any of these bigs are really close to the tier above, I just drew a line at where I’d take Bledsoe and a few wings over them” Tier:
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 23 | Andre Drummond, DET | PF, C | Obviously a full-blown punt-FT big, as we move through the ranks I’m treating each pick as a “best pick in a vacuum”. Upside for monster post stats with no Monroe. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .530/.380/0/16.0/13.5/1.2/0.9/2.0/1.6 :32 | |||
| 8 | 24 | Al Horford, ATL | PF, C | Going to be very overlooked in 15-16, gives great value in high-volume FG% and microscopic TO that many drafters ignore for bigger counting stats. MPG risk with some blowouts likely sink his value a tad. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .540/.740/0.2/16.0/7.5/3.3/0.9/1.4/1.5 :32 | |||
| 9 | 25 | Pau Gasol, CHI | PF, C | Of course he’s very unlikely to replicate 14-15, but he was 13th in per-game/7th in overall value. This rank already builds in some regression, and he should have the minutes scaled down a tad with no Tibs to hopefully keep him healthy. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .480/.780/0.1/17.0/9.8/2.8/0.3/1.5/1.9 :32 | |||
| 10 | 26 | Marc Gasol, MEM | C | Gasol brothers razor close – would take Pau for boards, Marc for a little more help in out-of-position dimes. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .490/.785/0/17.0/7.8/3.8/0.8/1.6/2.1 :34 | |||
| 11 | 27 | Nikola Vucevic, ORL | PF, C | Some look at his low steals and blocks for a big and dismiss him, but was 22nd in per-game last year due to high-volume FG% and a good FT% for a big, Fits a lot of builds earlier than you would think. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .510/.745/0/20.0/10.5/2.1/0.8/0.7/2.0 :34 | |||
| 12 | 29 | Hassan Whiteside, MIA | C | The bad FT% doesn’t hurt as much as the pure-FT punt guys, shocking 34th in per-game value only starting 32 of 48 games. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .610/.510/0/12.5/10.5/0.2/0.5/2.4/1.5 :28 | |||
| 13 | 31 | DeAndre Jordan, LAC | C | If you’re already FT-punting you don’t care, but 5.7 FT attempted a game is outrageous. Going to go way, way up as the NBA didn’t change the rules. Although, you should care a little bit even in FT-punt as it’s so bad for real basketball his minutes are likely going to drop. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .690/.410/0/12.0/14.0/0.8/1.0/2.2/1.3 :34 | |||
| 14 | 32 | Chris Bosh, MIA | PF, C | A little risk as he comes off a major health scare, should score a ton of points and keep hitting treys to help his Stl+Blk going down. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .470/.785/1.3/20.0/6.7/2.2/0.8/0.7/2.1 :34 |
The “Sexy defensive-minded C mixed with the unsexy old vets that have fallen a few rounds over the past few years” Tier:
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 35 | LaMarcus Aldridge, SA | PF, C | Huge hit going to the Spurs – lower minutes, fewer shots, I don’t think we see an expanded 3PTM game… I’m not risking any higher. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .470/.835/0.4/18.5/9.2/2.1/0.7/1.0/1.5 :32 | |||
| 16 | 36 | Derrick Favors, UTA | PF, C | FG% dropped after Kanter was dealt, will be playing a more mid-range game. Low FT% and blocks not developing into an elite stat keep him a little lower than Slim would like. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .510/.690/0/17.0/8.4/1.5/0.9/1.8/1.8 :32 | |||
| 17 | 37 | Kevin Love, CLE | PF, C | Shockingly was 33rd in per-game stats even though he was horrific, and FG%/Pts should rise a tad. Injury risk/minutes limit early/the fact I don’t really want Love on any teams keep him this low. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .445/.810/2.2/18.0/10.2/2.4/0.7/0.5/1.7 :34 | |||
| 18 | 39 | Nerlens Noel, PHI | PF, C | From Jan 7 to the final 3 games – 42 game stretch of 11.8/9.0/1.7/2.0/2.3 at 49.7% FG. If there was no Okafor clogging the paint, would be even higher. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .475/.635/0/11.5/8.8/2.0/1.9/2.0/1.9 :32 | |||
| 19 | 42 | Al Jefferson, CHA | PF, C | Fell down to 48th in per-game stats, but a lot had to do with missing 5 MPG with some easing in off injury mixed in there. Still was able to maintain the blocks, and has a better playmaker in Batum on the wing. Should have a nice bounce back, health concern keeps him from going higher |
| Slim’s Projection: | .485/.680/0/17.5/8.6/1.7/0.7/1.3/1.2 :32 |
The “Wide-range spectrum of sexy upside for situation, sexy still untapped youth potential, and upside if their clownfeet don’t break” Tier:
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 47 | Greg Monroe, MIL | PF, C | Lack of blocks hurt, but has the whole post to himself for the first time in a while, and finally started making FT at 75% last year. Should improve in FG% from last year as well. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .505/.745/0/18.0/10.5/2.3/1.2/0.6/2.3 :34 | |||
| 21 | 56 | Kenneth Faried, DEN | PF, C | New regime seems to like him, improved the steals and blocks over the second half, and I think we finally see a high MPG for the Manimal. Manimal unleashed! |
| Slim’s Projection: | .500/.705/0/15.0/9.7/1.2/1.2/1.1/1.9 :30 | |||
| 22 | 59 | Brook Lopez, BKN | C | 24th in per-game, played an amazing second half, but the obvious injury risk doesn’t justify a higher pick. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .510/.810/0/17.5/7.2/0.8/0.5/1.6/1.7 :30 |
The “I finally feel warm and fuzzy about drafting Myles Turner and ‘aw shucks, I guess I better get these vets!'” Tier:
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 62 | Myles Turner, IND | C | Really thin big man rotation, he fits an up-tempo style of play, and blocks will no question translate right away. Also can hit 3s, board, and make his FT – all with low TO. Just needs the run, Bird, you said it would happen – you better be a man of your word! |
| Slim’s Projection: | .465/.785/0.4/11.5/7.5/0.5/0.5/1.8/1.5 :26 | |||
| 24 | 67 | Tim Duncan, SA | PF, C | The falling off a cliff hasn’t happened yet, even though everyone has predicted it the past 5 years. 21st in per-game last year, Aldridge and missed games drop him to this point. I could actually see feeling pretty good lucking into him by the 6th. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .505/.735/0/12.5/8.9/2.8/0.6/1.7/1.5 :28 | |||
| 25 | 68 | Dirk Nowitzki, DAL | PF, C | Dirk probably has a little better upside than Timmay, but much greater downside. The Germinator took his first step off that cliff, with career-lows virtually across the board when you throw out his rookie season. Played under 30 MPG last year for the first time since his rookie season as well. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .465/.880/1.2/17.0/5.7/1.8/0.5/0.4/1.1 :28 |
The “Wow, I didn’t realize these thin tiers existed until now, seriously, I may need to re-think my big man drafting so I’m not stuck with too many of these schlubs” Tier:
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 74 | Tyson Chandler, PHX | C | I get the boring-ness, but he’s consistent and I think has a smidge of upside on the high-tempo Suns. Especially if there’s no Kieff… |
| Slim’s Projection: | .630/.710/0/10.0/10.5/1.0/0.5/1.1/1.3 :30 | |||
| 27 | 76 | Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | C | Only 21.1 MPG in 39 college games, I’m a little worried about the proverbial rookie wall and the stable of bigs Flip will run through. Long-term upside is massive, I don’t think we more than scratch the surface in this rookie year. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .480/.790/0.3/12.0/8.0/1.0/0.7/1.8/1.5 :26 | |||
| 28 | 77 | Marcin Gortat, WAS | C | Extremely odd he was 12th in per-game in the second half last year. 12th! High FG%, started filtering in steals, and the Wiz don’t have any good centers. I don’t think he gets Valanciunas-ed, and blocks haven’t really trended down in per-36 the past 6 years. Just needs the run. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .555/.695/0/12.5/8.9/1.2/0.6/1.2/1.2 :30 | |||
| 29 | 79 | Gorgui Dieng, MIN | PF, C | As a starter – 10.8/8.8/2.3/1.1/2.0 hitting 50.8% from the field and 78.1% from the line last year. But like Towns, the stable of big men is a huge concern, and he only played 28:43 MPG pre-ASB last year. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .510/.770/0/10.0/8.3/2.1/0.9/1.7/1.7 :28 | |||
| 30 | 82 | Markieff Morris, PHX? | PF, C | I had him 62 in the initial rankings post, internal strife with the Suns is really making him a scary pick, especially with a limited number of teams he could go to and produce a similar stat line to 14-15. DOWN – Still no resolution here, with him still a whiny baby. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .470/.770/0.8/16.0/6.3/2.5/1.2/0.5/2.1 :32 | |||
| 31 | 83 | Robin Lopez, NYK | C | HE’S AWFUL AT BASKETBALL! That’s all the blurb he gets. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .540/.780/0/11.5/8.7/1.1/0.3/1.6/1.2 :32 | |||
| 32 | 84 | Jonas Valanciunas, TOR | C | “Valanciunas-ed” is now a term for a player who goes off in the first half only to get limited run in the 2nd, and with the Casey regime still in power, they plan on sitting him late again – even with a newly signed extension. Per-36s are awesome, if only his per-26s could be the same… |
| Slim’s Projection: | .550/.790/0/12.5/8.9/0.6/0.4/1.2/1.7 :28 | |||
| 33 | 94 | Joakim Noah, CHI | PF, C | Rumors swirling he could be coming off the bench, and is off career-lows in both FG% and FT%. But even with Rose back a good chunk of last year, kept the dimes up. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .465/.690/0/9.5/9.8/4.4/0.8/1.2/1.8 :30 | |||
| 34 | 95 | Enes Kanter, OKC | C | Had a pretty unreal second half after moving to OKC, but a lot of that was due to no Ibaka or Durant. While a dubdub threat every night with good %s, AST+STL+BLK are likely to combine at under 2. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .520/.780/0/14.0/9.0/0.9/0.4/0.4/1.9 :28 | |||
| 35 | 99 | Zach Randolph, MEM | PF, C | Boring, but 1.0 STL was his highest since 09-10 and 48.7 FG% highest since 10-11. Those aren’t reasons to project upside, but indicate he’s not going to incrementally deteriorate trying to be the same exact player. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .470/.765/0/16.0/10.1/2.0/0.8/0.2/2.2 :32 |
The “Usable on the right builds” Tier:
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 105 | Patrick Patterson, TOR | PF, C | How the Raptors play their big men has been a big topic of discussion in the comments, and while I don’t see PIt-Pat playing huge minutes, I think he gets to 28-29 after 26:20 last year, and he finished top-100 in 9-cat metrics. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .455/.760/1.3/9.0/5.8/2.1/0.8/0.5/0.8 :28 | |||
| 37 | 108 | Jusuf Nurkic, DEN | C | Off-season patella surgery stung, as I was hoping for a big sophomore campaign. It’ll start slow, but I’ll gamble a later pick and try to hold through his low minutes out of the gate. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .460/.700/0/10.0/8.8/1.2/0.8/1.4/1.6 :26 | |||
| 38 | 116 | Roy Hibbert, LAL | C | Burke and Hibbert have both been failures on the opposite ends of the starting line-up the past few years, but maybe 2nd-half-collapse-Roy can do enough to warrant value this late. Blocks should be OK again, terrible boards from a guy his size and a bad FG% make him tough to own at times. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .450/.785/0/11.0/7.4/1.2/0.3/1.7/1.8 :28 |
The “Last rounds/last pick flier” Tier:
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 121 | Ed Davis, POR | PF, C | He seems to be becoming the unpopular big in the Blazers’ mystery rotation, but over his last 54 games – most of last year after getting really inconsistent run early – 9.1/7.9/1.4/0.6/1.3 with virtually no TO and 60% from the field in only 23.7 MPG. Will likely play more minutes in Portland, and scaling those numbers up will be really interesting. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .565/.560/0/11.0/7.8/1.4/0.6/1.3/1.0 :28 | |||
| 40 | 123 | Ryan Anderson, NO | PF, C | Injuries have taken their toll, but he can light up a ton of treys out-of-position and nab a couple boards. If we knew he’d be healthy all year, he’d probably be in the top 100. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .415/.860/2.2/14.0/4.9/1.0/0.5/0.3/1.0 :28 | |||
| 41 | 124 | John Henson, MIL | PF, C | 2.0 blocks in only 18:20 MPG last year was crazy talk, and should easily play more this season especially with Jabari coming back slow – there aren’t any other PF options. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .555/.575/0/9.5/6.6/1.3/0.5/2.0/1.6 :24 | |||
| 42 | 126 | Zaza Pachulia, DAL | C | Out-of-position nice AST/FT%, in-position bad boards and blocks. Could fit a lot of builds as a back end C though… |
| Slim’s Projection: | .460/.770/0/9.0/7.0/2.5/0.9/0.3/1.9 :26 | |||
| 43 | 127 | Jahlil Okafor, PHI | C | Going to be this year’s worst over-drafted player, offers horrible drains on FT% and TO while not blocking any shots. I guess the upside is worth the flier, but I bet he’s going to be a popular drop in standard 9-cat. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .510/.510/0/16.5/8.6/1.5/0.6/0.8/2.4 :32 | |||
| 44 | 128 | Mason Plumlee, POR | PF, C | Super-buzzy last year after making team USA and given a role, he nosedived horrifically… And now he has an even bigger shot! FT% issues and foul-trouble are still a concern, as is overall consistency. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .610/.535/0/11.5/7.7/1.0/0.9/1.0/1.8 :26 | |||
| 45 | 132 | Jordan Hill, IND | PF, C | Should be able to replicate what he did last year – minus a couple of points – in what was a useful season at times. Not “speeding” to get him though! |
| Slim’s Projection: | .475/.720/0/11.0/7.5/1.3/0.4/0.8/1.4 :24 | |||
| 46 | 135 | Timofey Mozgov, CLE | C | Healthcare.Mozgov was solid last season, but he plays such low minutes… He’ll be fine, but offers no upside. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .565/.720/0/10.5/6.8/0.8/0.4/1.2/1.5 :26 | |||
| 47 | 138 | Dwight Howard, HOU | PF, C | I’ve utterly ignored him for years now, and nothing changes this season. Off several injuries and a disappearance of blocks. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .580/.535/0/15.5/10.2/1.2/0.7/1.4/2.8 :30 | |||
| 48 | 139 | Kelly Olynyk, BOS | C | Slim disagrees with me on this one, but I think Olynyk is the only Boston big worth taking a shot on. Since he can stretch the floor he can fit small ball line-ups, and as a starter last year, 13 games at 26 minutes per for 11.2/5.8/1.6/1.0/0.5. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .470/.710/1.0/10.0/4.9/1.8/0.9/0.6/1.6 :22 | |||
| 49 | 141 | Omer Asik, NO | PF, C | Should give you another season of 25-26 minutes, 8/10 with almost a block. Meh. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .525/.595/0/7.5/10.0/0.8/0.4/0.7/1.3 :26 | |||
| 47 | 143 | Kyle O’Quinn, NYK | PF, C | He could find himself starting some games at the 4, but either way should pick up solid backup PF/C minutes as they ease Porzingis in. Expanded 3PT game and a nice FT% has him a very solid per-36 player. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .480/.740/0.4/7.5/4.4/1.6/0.7/1.1/1.1 :20 |
The “Undraftable in a 12er” Tier:
| C RANK | TOTAL RANK | PLAYER, TEAM | POS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 149 | Frank Kaminsky, CHA | C | I just don’t see him being a great NBA player, even if the out-of-position 3s will be nice. I bet he’s a “buzzy” Hornets pick a few rounds earlier. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .425/.775/1.2/12.0/6.6/1.1/0.4/0.7/1.5 :28 | |||
| 49 | 156 | Kosta Koufos, SAC | PF, C | Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he’s a favorite of George Karl and should see 25+ minutes. Will get plenty of boards and 1.5 blocks in that kind of run (Slim seems to sell the swats a tad short in his proj). |
| Slim’s Projection: | .505/.650/0/8.5/7.8/0.7/0.5/1.2/1.2 :26 | |||
| 50 | 158 | Jared Sullinger, BOS | PF, C | Slim rotations hurt Sully too, even if he has a slim tummy. Everyone loves a good weight loss, but I don’t see the minutes Slim does. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .450/.760/0.9/14.0/8.0/2.3/0.8/0.7/1.4 :28 | |||
| 51 | 164 | Clint Capela, HOU | PF, C | Any backup to Dwight is worth owning as a handcuff (deja vu!), and should play either way off the pine. Even as a reserve, should get big swats. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .575/.600/0/7.5/6.8/0.6/0.6/1.4/1.0 :20 | |||
| 52 | 168 | Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC | C | Seems most likely to come off the bench behind Kouf or a stretch-4 Gay, but regardless, his defensive stats should be awesome. Bad FT% and low points will be tough, especially in an inconsistent MPG role. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .490/.620/0/8.5/5.8/ 0.8/0.9/1.9/1.0 :26 | |||
| 53 | 170 | Amir Johnson, BOS | PF, C | Awful rotation and B-Rad runs his bigs thin. I’ll pass in 12ers. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .565/.645/0.2/10.0/6.8/1.6/0.6/0.9/1.6 :28 | |||
| 54 | 175 | Tristan Thompson, CLE? | PF, C | Contract isn’t quite settled, but his unusability in 12ers is. Maybe a sign-and-trade with Phoenix! |
| Slim’s Projection: | .495/.650/0/8.5/7.4/0.3/0.4/0.6/1.0 :26 | |||
| 55 | 181 | Meyers Leonard, POR | PF, C | Seems to be a popular sleeper candidate, his lack of blocks really hurt. Nice for the out-of-position treys and boards, but I think his upside is capped by no AST/STL/BLK. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .480/.825/1.3/10.5/7.4/1.0/0.3/0.4/1.1 :26 | |||
| 56 | 182 | Andrew Bogut, GSW | C | Nice glue guy for defensive stats when healthy, but he’s undraftable since he’s… never healthy. |
| Slim’s Projection: | .535/.545/0/6.0/7.9/2.5/0.5/1.5/1.5 :24 | |||
| 57 | 190 | Steven Adams, OKC | C | Ugh, love the player, hate the rotation. Love the stash, hate the minutes smash. No…? |
| Slim’s Projection: | .550/.545/0/8.0/7.2/0.8/0.6/1.2/1.2 :24 | |||
| 58 | 191 | Bismack Biyombo, TOR | C | Per-36 blocks are awesome, and in a few more minutes in TOR should get to 1.5-2.0 blocks and have nice boards. Won’t do much else though… |
| Slim’s Projection: | .510/.575/0/6.0/7.9/0.3/0.3/1.9/1.0 :24 |
