Fantasy Basketball Advice

With the lockout likely to linger well into October and perhaps into November, trying to preview the season of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. We here at Razzball have you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it this way, the only way any of this stuff can be disproven is if the season starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, consider this fantasy basketball gospel. Don’t even bother reading anything else – dem’s all lies. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The Anaheim Sacramento Kings.

Gained – J.J. Hickson, John Salmons, Jimmer Fredette, Tyler Honeycutt, Isaiah Thomas

Lost – Omri Casspi, Beno Udrih, Samuel Dalembert (in all likelihood), Eugene Jeter

Probable position depth -
PG – Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, Isaiah Thomas
SG – Marcus Thornton, Francisco Garcia, Marquis Daniels, Jermaine Taylor
SF – John Salmons, Donte Greene, Tyler Honeycutt
PF – J.J. Hickson, Darnell Jackson
C –  DeMarcus Cousins, Jason Thompson, Hassan Whiteside

Surprising Team Fact From Last Season – For all intents and purposes, the Kings were the best offensive rebounding team in the league (second behind Minnesota in total ORbd). The Kings’ offense grabbed a league-best .299 percent of the available rebounds … and then probably boffed a skimmer off the back iron from three feet away … no foul.

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 0
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) – 1, Evans
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players    (par 2-3) – 3, Hickson, Cousins
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) – 4, Thornton
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 7, Salmons, Fredette, Thompson

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season

1. Is Tyreke Evans a point guard, or will he just play the position?
If there’s one thing Sacramento needs, it’s a nicer restaurant than an Olive Garden for high schoolers to go on dates. If there’s a second thing Sacramento needs, it’s a point guard. Evans ain’t it. Last season he spent less than 5 percent of his time at the point and his strength is in bodying up the defense and charging to the basket. Evans running the point wouldn’t be a disaster, as his willingness to drive complements most of the other rostered guards who tend to shoot first, but Evans’ court awareness hasn’t been tested … ever … and it remains to be seen what will happen once it has been tested.

2. Will Thornton get respect BEFORE the All-Star Game this year?
He’s already gotten it, sort of. The Kings have said they want to build the team around a small group of guys and Thornton was one of them t’was named. It remains to be seen how well Evans and Thornton will get along (they played limited minutes together last season in only Udrih-Thornton-Evans or Thornton-Evans-Garcia variations), but at the very least, the guy who seemingly dragged the team alongside him down the stretch, will start the new season with something he hadn’t started either of his previous two seasons with: a chance.

3. What kind of man drafts John Salmons onto his team?
He’s been overrated for two seasons, going as early as the seventh round in drafts last year. I spent most of my time warning people that he doesn’t play well until after the All-Star Break, which makes me moderately fearful that between Salmons and Thornton, this team might average 80 points a game through February, and 120 after it. But I digress (that’s just how I do). Salmons’ 14/3.5/3.5 averages last season weren’t terrible if a) you waited until the 130th pick in your draft to grab him, b) your league didn’t calculate field-goal percentages (.415! For a shooter! Exclamation mark!) and c) your league gave you additional points for drafting Bucks. Like tax incentives for charitable donations. If none of these were true for you last season, make sure they’re true for you this season.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’11 –  DeMarcus Cousins. This is a mild call as I don’t really expect Cousins to take a step back. I simply don’t expect him to advance forward much. Why not, you ask through secret mind messaging? I’ll tell you …

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’11 – J.J. Hickson. This is why. Hickson had a lot of guff kicked at him last season, which is particularly rough because as far as I know, guff is not something that can be kicked from one person to another. If you think back to the All-Star Break – or take the time machine back there if you have that capability available to you – you’ll recall that the guff stopped here (or there – depending on when and where you’re reading this). He averaged 12/8, shooting just .445 from the floor before the All-Star Break, then entered the same steroid chamber Captain America did and came out averaging 17/11, averaging .481. ‘Reke is the obvious pick to be the team’s alpha-contributor, but his switch to PG and foot issues leave just enough room for me to think Hickson, who’ll just be turning 23, could pick right up where he left off last season.

Deep Sleeper – Francisco Garcia / Jimmer Fredette. Look, I don’t love the idea of either of these guys. It’s like Baconaise: I know it’s out there, it just makes me a little queasy thinking about it. At some point, Evans, Thornton and Salmons are going to have to take a break from all that running around that inevitably happens when one plays professional basketball. And one of these two fellas is going to be the first off the bench. My guess is, whichever player produces the most when he comes off that bench will be this team’s Sixth Man and a 2-3-tooled talent worthy of a wire pickup. I’m leaning toward Fredette, though I don’t think either will have an outstanding season. That’s why they’re here.

It feels like everyone in the league is hopping over to Besiktas, Anadolu Efes, or Zhejiang or, at least, planning on doing so. Below is a look at where the league stands as of midnight on Friday…

With the lockout likely to linger well into October and perhaps into November, trying to preview the season of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. We here at Razzball have you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it this way, the only way any of this stuff can be disproven is if the season starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, consider this fantasy basketball gospel. Don’t even bother reading anything else – dem’s all lies. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The Minnesota Timberwolves (The West’s worst, or Westwurst if you intend to put it in a bun and eat it.)

Gained – Derrick Williams, Ricky Rubio, Brad Miller (after his microfractured knee is healed in January)

Lost – Jonny Flynn, Tanguy Ngombo (another ace pick by the T’Wolves!)

Probable position depth -
PG – Luke Ridnour, Ricky Rubio, Sebastian Telfair
SG – Wes Johnson, Martell Webster, Wayne Ellington, Malcolm Lee
SF – Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Lazar Hayward
PF – Kevin Love, Anthony Randolph, Anthony Tolliver
C –  Darko Milicic, Nikola Pekovic, Brad Miller

Surprising Team Fact From Last Season – The Wolves played with the fastest pace of all 30 teams (96.5, a full possession faster than the Knicks and Nuggs). Hand it to Rambis, if you’re gonna look terrible implementing a system into a roster that can’t support it, might as well do it by whizzing past people.

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 1, Love
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) – 0
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players    (par 2-3) – 2, Beasley
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) – 0
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 8, Randolph, Ridnour, Williams, Johnson, Milicic, Rubio

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season

1. Has the Goodship Rubio sailed on already?
Rubio averaged .451/.767/6.5 pts/2.7 rbd/4.2 ast/1.9 stl/0.1 blk in 42 games with Barcelona last season, played even worse than that in 20 Euroleague games last season too. You could double those stats and he would only be mildly interesting as an unproven 21-year-old entering the NBA. He can’t shoot, might have foot issues, doesn’t particularly want to play for the team he’ll be playing for, couldn’t start in Europe and isn’t going to start in Minnesota. YouTubbed montages of Rubio are one thing, 82 games of Rubio playing I Spy on the bench with Sebastian Telfair, are quite another.

2. David Kahn wants to run an up-tempo offense next season. Does David Kahn know the Wolves played the most up-tempo game in the league last year?
Probably not. As long as your best player is an unathletic PF, there’s only so fast a team can go and still be successful. “Who said anything about success?” -David Kahn, who has already kind of committed to playing Rubio 25 minutes a night.

3. Stop messin’ around, is Anthony Randolph going to produce this season or not?
I believe he will. Trick me once, shame on you. Trick me twice, shame on me. Trick me with three different teams, might as well call me Client No. 9, ’cause that’s a lot of tricks, Spitzer. If you had asked me in December or even February of last season, I’d have said Randolph was not likely to be much in this league. And you did ask me. And that was what I said. But after he was traded from New York, he went from averaging 2/2/0 in 8 mpg to 12/5/1, with 1.5 stl+blk in 20 mpg with Minnesota. I don’t love the glut of forwards in Minnesota (I haven’t mentioned Derrick Williams yet, I already went over his prospects here), and I’m not recommending you take Randolph anywhere in the first 100 picks, but if he can carve out 24-26 mpg for himself, get a little more comfortable, we could see a 14/6.5/2 sleeper pick averaging 2+ stl+blk per game.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’11 –  Ricky Rubio. The hype will undoubtedly get Rubio picked 50 players before he should go. Rubio means fair (as in, “meh”) in Spanish. Need more be said?

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’11 – Kevin Love. If reasons for Love being the team’s biggest contributor were lakes, Minnesota would have a thousand of ‘em.

Deep Sleeper – Wesley Johnson. From month-to-month last season, Johnson just couldn’t get out of his 9/3/2 rut. He was craving it, but Wes Cravin’s don’t mean a whole lot in the end (take THAT “The Hills Have Eyes!”) He’s young and likely to avoid much of the blockage awaiting the 3 and 4 positions. (That being said, I can see the T-Wolves attempting an up-tempo offense with nothing but Ridnour and guys over 6-foot-7, can’t you?) I think Johnson will have a better per minute year than he did last season, but Johnson’s 26 mpg might be harder to come by now that the Wolves are deeper. So deep is where you’ll want to go to pick Johnson.

With the lockout likely to linger well into October and perhaps into November, trying to preview the season of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. We here at Razzball have you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it this way, the only way any of this stuff can be disproven is if the season starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, consider this fantasy basketball gospel. Don’t even bother reading anything else – dem’s all lies. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The New Jersey Nets (Don’t! Sleep! Til Brooklyyyn!)

Gained – Marshon Brooks, Jordan Williams

Lost – Sasha Vujacic, Brandan Wright (probably), Dan Gadzuric (probably), Mario West (tutti Marios finire in Italia)

Probable position depth -
PG – Deron Williams, Jordan Farmar, Sundiata Gaines, Orien Greene
SG – Anthony Morrow, Marshon Brooks, Stephen Graham, Ben Uzoh
SF – Damion James, Travis Outlaw
PF – Kris Humphries,
C –  Brook Lopez, Jordan Williams, Johan Petro

Surprising Team Fact From Last Season – The Nets were tied for the most minutes played last season (20,005), having played 13 overtime periods throughout 2010-11. How much would you have paid to have seen Brook Lopez drop that little nugget as the reason the Nets had performed poorly again last season to the circle of reporters in the locker room after the final game of the season? The 10 seconds of stunned silence from no one knowing what to say would have made the 55 Travis Outlaw starts totally worth it.

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 1, Williams
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) –  2, Lopez
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players    (par 2-3) – 3, Humphries
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) – 0
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 5, Morrow, Farmar

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season

1. Is there anyone on this bench I should be paying attention to?
This is a very black and white question, so you’ll excuse me as I answer “maybe” and blow your minds with a dash of gray. Your world was just opened. Spoon! Fork! Spork. Duck! Beaver! Platypus. Bowie! Thin Lizzy! T-Rex. D-Will! Uzoh! Marshon Brooks. The word on this year’s 25th overall pick is that he can shoot and score points in droves but can’t do anything else. You always have to acknowledge a pure scorer in fantasy basketball, but the problem here is that fantasy owners are still doing the same thing with the guy likely to start ahead of Brooks, Anthony Morrow; and I ain’t all that hot on Morrow either (for more on this, move your eyes down about 1/4 of an inch).

2. Describe to me a situation in which Anthony Morrow would be a wise pick before Round 10?
Oh, hey there. I’m glad you made it from 1/4 inch ago. Did you drive or take a cab? What were we talking about? Anthony Morrow? Right. He’s supposed to be one of the five purest shooters currently shooting. The problem is, he’s missed an average of 17 games in each of his first three seasons in the league, which means he’s rarely “currently shooting.” For argument’s sake, let’s say years 1-3 were a fluke and he plays in every game this season (which might ironically still amount to only 65 games), the team’s weird fluctuations last season and his lack of real rhythm on both the Nets and Warriors seem to have stunted his development in most facets of his game. Plus, he’s a free agent and if he goes elsewhere, what are the odds he’ll be on a team as shallow as this one? On the flip side (or flipcide, if you kill someone with your middle finger) Morrow has a real shot at playing 34+ minutes on this team no matter how little he earns it. Even if Brooks is better than advertised, New Jersey is so thin at SF, it’s more than possibly Bone Morrow will slide on over to the swing and play Brooks at SG. I’d target Morrow somewhere between picks 95-115 if he remains a Net, if for no other reason than because the odds of him missing another 17 games and playing fewer than 30 mpgs are probably less than even.

3. When we last saw Kris Humphries, he was averaging 14/15/2 in March – should I take him with my second pick or third?
Question 1: Was last year a contract year for the Hump? Question 2: Can his special lady friend who shall not be named easily, breezily spend his 2010-11 salary in one afternoon at Nordstrom? (<– my girlfriend says Fred Segal or Neiman Marcus would have been more appropriate here. I acted like I didn’t hear her and waited until she left the room to type this.) Question 3: Did Humphries think about getting paid in the offseason during every single game between December and April? If you answered no to any of these questions, start from the beginning and do things differently.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’11 –  Kris Humphries. Seriously, you guys. 

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’11 – Deron Williams. I took Morrow to task for having an injured past, Williams isn’t much better. He’s missed an average of 12 games in each of his last three seasons and the wrist injury that nagged his entire tenure as a Net up until this point was a backhander to the jowls of everyone who owned him at the end of last season. But – and this is a big enough butt that Kris Humphries would feel comfortable playing with it in the ocean – D-Will’s non-shooting stats went up across the board (+0.7 rbd/+3.1 ast/+0.1 stl/+0.1 blk in the same number of mpgs he played on the Jazz last year). Not only that, he clearly had an effect on Brook Lopez and perhaps he’ll propel guys like Morrow and Outlaw.

Deep Sleeper – Marshon Brooks. I’m 75 percent sure some combination of Morrow and Brooks are going to be fantasy relevant in 2011. If I had to break that completely arbitrary number down a bit further, I’d give 50 percent assuredness to Morrow and the other 25 to Brooks. Not great for either of them, but not terrible if you fall into owning both of them.