Fantasy Basketball Advice

With the lockout likely to linger well into October and perhaps into November, trying to preview the seasons of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. We here at Razzball have you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it this way, the only way any of this stuff can be proven wrong is if the season starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, here before you is the NBA fantasy gospel. Don’t even bother reading anything else – it’s all lies. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The Washington Wizards (get excited!)

Gained – Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton, Shelvin Mack

Lost – Yi Jianlian, Mustfa Shakur, Kevin Seraphin (these might also count as a gains)

Probable position depth -
PG – John Wall, Shelvin Mack
SG – Nick Young, Jordan Crawford, Othyus Jeffers
SF – Rashard Lewis, Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton, Josh Howard, Larry Owens, Maurice Evans
PF – Andray Blatche, Trevor Booker
C –  JaVale McGee, Kevin Seraphin, Hamady N’diaye

Surprising Fact From Last Season – The Wiz led the league in blocks last season. Let no one claim JaVale McGee’s CrazyLimb® technique didn’t scare away at least a few players driving the lane in 2010. I’m not saying he plays good defense – I’m saying he plays bad defense terrifyingly.

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 0
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) – 2, Wall, McGee
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players    (par 2-3) – 0,
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) – 4, Blatche, Young
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 8, Lewis, Crawford, Vesely, Booker

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season -

1. Are there enough alley-oops to go around for both Vesely and McGee?
I’m hoping there are, but my guess is both McGee and Vesely just aren’t strong enough to position themselves correctly under the basket with any regularity. Neither big can really create his own shot and that’s going to mean that players defending either of them just need to park it under the block and dig in a hip. “Dig in a Hip” was my favorite James Brown b-side, bee tee dubya.

2. Will Nick Young feign illness at any point to give Jordan Crawford a little playing time?
Yeah, it was called spring 2011 and it worked out pretty well for young Crawford. He won’t be so lucky come fall. Here’s what I said about him several months ago, “[Crawford] didn’t shoot threes well, didn’t get to the line, turned the ball over more than a SG should and shot .390 as a starter. To be fair, he averaged four more minutes per game in April than he did in March, yet scored 1.2 fewer points. Why? Because he improved his passing game (rising from 3.7 March dimes – my favorite old-timey charity! – to 5.4 in April). But that’s the kind of improvement that solidifies his position as one of the first players off the bench, not maintaining 33 mpgs next season.” Remember that? My, my, we were all so young back then. Anyway, I wouldn’t count on much more from Crawford than what his season totals ended up being because unless Young feigns an ankle injury, he won’t take a backseat on this team.

3. Is this the year D.C. finds some leadership? Wait, is that a political question? ‘Cause we try to stay away from that here. Wait, was that second question asking about the first question the actual comment on the political climate in Washington disguised as an innocent question? Because we try to stay away from that here. Wait, was identifying Razzball’s writing gimmick too revelatory? Because we … have no opinion on that, really. Anyway, this is John Wall’s team, but he won’t take hold of it with any regularity until next season. They’ll be better this year in congress with Wall, but still not quite good. Wait, was “Congress” and “Wall” meant as a subconcious comment on the debt ceiling?

Fantasy Disappointment in ’11 – Rashard Lewis. There’s always one sucker every draft that wildly overpays for name recognition. If you’re at your draft and it takes you longer than five minutes to figure out who that sucker is – it’s you.

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’11 – John Wall. Of all the players who belong in the top 40, Wall is the guy I’m most convinced is going to fall a round or two later in a lot of drafts. He was an unknown commodity who missed 13 games early, played for a team with little exposure and most importantly, remained in Blake Griffin’s shadow all season. If you owned him last year, you probably recall how valuable he was, but a lot of people left the season thinking of him as a disappointment … you know, one of those 16/5/8 disappointments who averaged 2.3 stl+blk to boot. He’s a more fantasy-relevant Rondo. Don’t say you weren’t told.

Deep Sleeper – Trevor Booker. After injuries ripped through D.C.’s roster faster than a Qdoba burrito rips through my digestive track, Booker was simply one of the few guys left on the floor. In the last dozen games of his season he averaged 10/8/1 in 29 mpgs. Not great, but in leagues with more than 12 owners, it was probably enough to buy competing teams an extra point or two. He shouldn’t be considered before Round 15 in most drafts, but if he should be considered sooner than that, he wouldn’t be a deeper sleeper now would he? Logic!

When my computer freezes, I yank out the power cord from the electrical socket. TV goes on the fritz? I whack it a few times. Freezer breaks? Eff it – I just turn it into a closet exclusively used for pants! I’m not good with technology. I’m about as capable with technologically as Amy Winehouse is with pills. And before you turn on me for making an insensitive joke about a musician whose career consisted of only three songs that anyone’s ever heard of, you should know that I’ve been under the impression that Amy Winehouse died two years ago. You wouldn’t shake your head at me in the summer of 2013 for making light of Winehouse’s death, don’t do it to me now. Anyway, I’m a Luddite. That was the original point of all this: technology is both amazing and inexplicable. Take the iPhone: the thing can detect movement. The songs shuffle when you shake it, or the display changes from vertical to horizontal depending on how you hold it – it’s amazing. If these things can detect motion, why not weather or environmental conditions? I’d like that in my gadgets. You’re on the beach, it’s warm, the hot glare of the sun beats down on my phone – boom – Jan & Dean. The Beach Boys. I’m in my car, it’s warm, the windows are rolled down, there’s wind – poof – a CCR, Springsteen, Thorogood playlist breaks out. Performances adaptive to the physical environment: it’s the way of the future, Howard Hughes. At least that’s what the Timberwolves were hoping when they chose Arizona’s Derrick Williams with the second overall pick in this year’s draft. The team will not belong to him outright, but it will need him to adapt to a variety of environments in order to be effective … and to sputter out CCR whenever Kevin Love asks for it. And he will ask for it. Let’s take a look at why I think DerrWilliger is a sneaky fantasy basketball pick.

Williams has been widely compared to David West as the type of player he’ll eventually most resemble. Physically, this isn’t far off. West is an inch taller, but five pounds lighter. Williams is quicker than West, but is probably going to have a rough year guarding the three if he gets stuck there. West, in his first two seasons with Xavier, did everything better than Williams except score. But it’s precisely Williams’ scoring that makes him so intriguing. He averaged 1.9 3ptm last year on .568 shooting from beyond the college arc. He won’t average anything near that as a rookie, but it shows that the dude can spread the floor. Put him next to Love, who sank 88 threes last season, and you’ve got a tricky frontcourt. Ultimately, I think Williams will face the same glut as Kyrie Irving will face in Cleveland: there’s other capable bodies playing their same position. Unless Minnesota can shuffle off Anthony Randolph, Michael Beasley or Love (perish the thought!) to another team, I don’t see Williams getting into the starting lineup. I do however see him playing both SF and PF and amassing 24-28 mpg by the end of the year. The Wolves need a second big besides Love who can spread the floor and get to the line. If he’s playing SF, he’ll be bigger than enough of his defenders to score in isolation. He’s a lot like Beasley in both size and skill set, which is a problem in that Beasley is his main competition for playing time (Love ain’t going nowhere and it’s unlikely that they’ll movie him to center to get Williams more minutes at the four). A third of Williams’ 8.3 rbds last year came on the offensive end (huzzah!), which means he only averaged about 5.5 defensive boards (boo!). This might be the biggest factor playing against the kid. He’s not going to grab three offensive boards a night playing 26 minutes a game and sharing the floor with Love. And outside of Love and Darko Milicic, the Wolves’ next best defensive rebounders all play the same position as Williams (Beasley, Anthony Tolliver, Martell Webster, Wes Johnson and that’s not counting what Anthony Randolph will contribute). Ultimately, I think everyone with a mild pulse on this roster last season will completely fall away in 2011. Webster, Milicic and Johnson especially. Que Seras, Sarah. Whatever will be, Sarah. Don’t expect “David West,” from Derrick Williams, but do expect 25 mpg, 14/6/1 with solid percentages. It isn’t as farfetched as me trying to turn off the alarm on my iPhone without swearing at least twice.

It was fairly obvious to everybody that Darren Collison was the best player involved in the four-team trade that sent him to Indiana last summer. Trevor Ariza was absolutely awful for the Hornets, Courtney Lee wasn’t much better and I can’t recall Troy Murphy making an impact play also season long. Sadly, Collison was only the best player involved in the deal because of who else was in it, not necessarily because he flourished as a starter for the Pacers. Prior to the season, Adam pegged Collison for .460/.845/1.5 3pt/17 pts/4 rbd/8 ast/2 stl/0 blk/3 tov and I predicted that Collison would average 20 and 9. But instead of developing into one of the top 10 point guards in the league – something many expected him to do coming into the season – Collison only saw a two minute increase per game, while seeing his FG/3PT percentages drop from .477/.400 in his rookie year to .457/.331 in his sophomore year. Additionally, Collison only raised his scoring average 0.8 ppg (from 12.4 to 13.2) and he actually averaged fewer assists with the Pacers (5.7 apg as a rookie, 5.1 apg with Indiana) despite playing in the fifth fastest offense (the Hornets played in the 16th fastest in 2009).

Having to adjust to a new coach midway through the season certainly played a role in Collison’s shortcomings but a lot of blame has to be on him for underwhelming us. Now, from an organizational standpoint, you’re usually not going to be all that disappointed in a season like that from Collison because he’s just 23 years old, so natural progression is almost a certainty. He’ll also have some stability with Frank Vogel going forward as the permanent head coach. But Indiana wasn’t happy, or at least it doesn’t appear that way. On draft night they dealt the rights to Kwahi Leonard, who, though not a fantasy asset, could help an actual basketball team like the Pacers, to San Antonio to get local product George Hill. The Pacers have said they made the move because they want some more experience/leadership in the locker room. While Hill is certainly a great presence, I have a hard time buying the leadership argument for a 25-year old who has been in the league just one more season than Collison on a team that required him to do absolutely no leading.

Collison had a hard time getting 36 mpg last season with A.J. Price and T.J. Ford, who was in the doghouse for half of the season, as his back-ups, so having Hill come over from San Antonio should put a bit of a scare into Collison. Though Hill’s per game numbers from last season weren’t any more impressive than Collison’s, you have to factor in the pecking order in San Antonio and how rarely Hill was asked to take over a game. Also, Hill has started 55 games in his career, mostly due to injury to Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili, and his averages in starts are 14.7 pts/3.1 rbd/ 3.6 ast with percentages of .477/.368/.775. Those numbers may not be substantially better than Collison’s but they are better (aside from Hill’s assists, which are lowered in part because he’s spent a lot of time as a two guard). Assuming the Pacers give each guy a fair shot at the job entering into the season, there’s a big chance Hill could win the starting gig. Aside from his base production, Hill also provides the hometown angle for marketing and he has one large non-Fantasy advantage over Collison: his defense. Hill can defend both guard spots well and that will give him an edge over Collison.

Hill also takes much better care of the ball (Two days ago I saw him play the dribble game with five 5-10 year old campers and he won every single time. Jrue story.), seems to have a better three-point stroke and is a better rebounder. It will take a lot of work for Collison to ever capture 35 minutes a game for the Pacers now that Hill is in town. He had a golden opportunity last season with Price and Ford trying their hardest to make Collison compete with Monta Ellis for the most complete games in basketball to seize the job but he had a disappointing season and the Pacers decided to sure up their back-up spot by acquiring Hill. Collison’s best shot at an increase in minutes next season is having Hill split 30 minutes a night between both guard spots, which is something he did in San Antonio. There’s a chance that Hill is what he is at this point: a combo guard that is most valuable filling in when needed rather than starting. Should that be the case, its fairly easy to see Collison maintaining at least 30 minutes per game while playing alongside Hill for stints every single night.

But this is certainly a wake-up call for Collison. If Indiana’s intentions are to allow the two guards to earn the starting spot, then Collison will be in an up-Hill battle for the spot that many thought he was going to flourish in last season. And his career path may go from Chris Paul‘s back-up to Chris Paul’s replacement that played better than expected to point guard of the future for the Pacers to George Hill’s back-up.

With the lockout likely to linger well into October and perhaps into November, trying to preview the seasons of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. We here at Razzball have you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it this way, the only way any of this stuff can be proven wrong is if the season starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, here before you is the NBA fantasy gospel. Don’t even bother reading anything else – it’s all lies. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! First up – The Cleveland Cavaliers (I’m so sorry).

Gained – Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Omri Casspi

Lost – J.J. Hickson,

Probable position depth -
PG – Baron Davis, Kyrie Irving, Ramon Sessions
SG – Anthony Parker, Daniel Gibson, Manny Harris
SF – Omri Casspi, Alonzo Gee, Christian Eyenga, Joey Graham
PF – Antawn Jamison, Tristan Thompson, Samardo Samuels, Luke Harangody
C – Anderson Varejao, Semih Erden, Ryan Hollins

Surprising Fact From Last Season – The Cavs had the third-highest total attendance last season (824,595 or approximately 20,112 per game), leading me to believe that the Rock ‘N’ Roll Hall of Fame must be boring as hell.

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 0
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) – 0
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players    (par 2-3) – 1, Casspi
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) – 0
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 7, Davis, Irving, Sessions, Jamison, Thompson, Varejao

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season -

1. How can the worst team in basketball get two of the first four picks in the draft and not start either of them?
That’s a good question omnipotent question dude. This becomes an even larger curiosity when you consider that 3/5 of the projected starting lineup ranges between 32 and 36 years old and missed a combined 60 games in 2010. I can buy one of those players making it through the bulk of the season, but not all three (Parker, a free agent, may very well start the season on another team. I know you can’t wait to find out how that one unfolds!) The Cavs probably can’t buy it either, but the problem is, without the three old guys running the show, you have … well, frankly, you have all the kids doing what they could. And 19 wins is all they could. And that’s how bad the Cavaliers are, Jamison, Parker and Davis really are the best options here until any of the young backups can grow up in a hurry.

2. Are Alonzo Gee, Manny Harris, Christian Eyenga and Samardo Samuels all the same person?
Yes. But if you must choose one to draft, go with Alo G or the fifth Ninja Turtle, Samardo.

3. Will the Cavs sorta regret ditching J.J. Hickson or totally regret it?
Look, the Great Casspi laid a ‘West Egg’ last season in Sacramento. He took a decided step back in almost every discernible way (he ended the season with an 11.7 PER – woof!). He just doesn’t look the type to carry a team, not even this one. Well … maybe. No. No, not even this one, but Hickson might have it in him – not the Kings, but perhaps he could have been more of the man in Cleveland than Casspi is going to be. Hickson was showered with minutes and played sloppy with them. His percentages went down while everything else went up. It was his third year and he was only 22. But dude’s got confidence and it’s worth noting that after averaging 12/8 before the All-Star Break, he averaged 17/11.  Yes the Kings were one of the most terribly coached and run franchises in the league last year and we should chalk some of Casspi’s slide on that, but Cleveland is no better; may even be worse. Casspi’s got a lot of multi-tool potential and he stands to see a huge uptick in minutes, but it won’t be enough, not to make up for Hickson’s offense, especially when old man Jamison goes down with shingles or rickets or whatever it is that guys that age come down with. And speaking of which …

Fantasy Disappointment in ’10 – Antawn Jamison. He’s 35, missed a third of last season, he’s got Thompson and Samuels breathing down his neck, has seen the bulk of his stats decline three straight years and someone is going to draft him in the sixth round. You watch. Someone is going to mistake Jamison for the leader of this team instead of a retirement age former all-star and grab him four rounds too early. … And that guy will wish he hadn’t. 

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’10 – Omri Casspi. I was tempted to go with Kyrie. Maybe Varejao. I was even tempted – sadly – to present you with the odd Antawn Jamison-will-both-disappoint-and-be-the-team’s-biggest-contributor enigma. Alas, I’m going with Casspi and hope that you wait until at least the seventh round before going with him yourself.

Deep Sleeper – Tristan Thompson. I dated a Kristan Thompson once. She spelled it that way; with an “a” at the end. It was terrible. She had chin acne and tried to equate everything that happened to her with episodes of Buffy the Vampire Slayer. So, yeah, I’m probably not going to draft him. Also, his name sounds like it belongs to the pudgy fourth grader who somehow got a gig in the mall singing country songs on a 1-foot stage in front of the buffet you visit on weekends.