1) I’m sure I’ve mentioned this numerable times but JB and I are well known members in the swingers community. I’m not sure if it’s a good idea to give away our anonymity but I feel like I can trust you. I go by the Hairless Wonder, don’t ask, and JB goes by the alias… If you would like JB’s alias to be ‘Big Country’ go to paragraph 5. If you think JB’s alias should be ‘The Diesel’ go to paragraph 3.
2) … Twister. I’m sure you’ve been there before, you’ve got your left foot on green, your left hand on red and if someone says right hand blue you know you’re going to be the unfortunate soul who’s going to have the sad face when you’re given your parting gift of a half of a gallon of Purell and sent on your way home. Since JB never breaks character I have no idea if he’s giving me a good spin or he wants to see me end up … For the epic conclusion go to paragraph 6.
3) … The Diesel. I can’t stand when JB plays the role of Shaq. He talks in some made up accent and I can’t understand a word he’s saying. He’s a fun guy to be around and I’m sure his jokes are funny but if no one else can understand them of course no one is going to laugh. It’s especially annoying when we’re playing… If you would like JB and Slim to play Twister go to paragraph 2. If you would like them to play poker go to paragraph 4.
4) … Poker. If you play then you’ve had that moment where you’re trying to read your opponent and figure out if he’s bluffing or not. Since JB doesn’t break character he’s impossible to read. I know neither one of us want each other to lose but when he’s in character I never know if he wants to help me or see me end up … For the epic conclusion go to paragraph 6.
5) … Big Country. The only thing I’m sure of is that it’s a reference to Bryant Reeves. Why he wears overalls makes sense but why he cuts his hair into that ridiculous flat top and stares me dead in the eyes for hours is something I still can’t figure out. Sure I stare back, we’re here to switch things up for an evening and anyway its always was fun when we’re playing… If you would like JB and Slim to play Twister go to paragraph 2. If you would like them to play Poker go to paragraph 4.
6) … getting drunk, getting happy, then sad, and finally leave the party all by myself. Kicking over everyone’s mailbox and screaming obscenities at 3am isn’t something I want to do. The police officer usually understands that. All I want is to meet a few new people and have a good time. Maybe switching it up didn’t work for me, maybe my girlfriend will take me back and I can settle down for good. Let’s just hope she never finds out about this.
What was I doing again… That’s right fantasy basketball. Chandler Parsons and Thaddeus Young did some switching of their own this off season. I’m talking about teams… What were you thinking? So how will they fare with their new teams? I’m going to perform a magic trick. Close your eyes. You too JB. Are they closed… … OK open. Ta Da. Parsons v Young! ***Applause***
Parsons dropped a percentage point from the year before to .472 FG%, but added a shot per game to get up to 13.3 attempts per game. Thaddeus’ FG% dropped much farther, all the way to .454 on 16.2 attempts per game. Not only was this a career low but it was only the 3rd time in his now .500 FG% 7-year career that he’s shot under that career mark for a season.
The reason Chandler Parsons is able to shoot such a high percent considering all the 3-point attempts is that he knows what he’s capable of and doesn’t often try to do more. With that said he’s also the type of person who will look to prove he was worth his new salary. I expect at least the same amount of attempts at right around his .470 FG% career average. Thaddeus is tougher to project since he’s played multiple seasons attempting less than 0.1 3s per game. Since he shot 3’s last year, I think he does it again, hopefully at a better percent. On a better team with more offensive weapons I doubt Thaddeus Young can get close to last year’s attempts. If we split the difference between last year and the year before it comes to about 14.4 per game. I’m going with that, on .460 FG%, due to all those pesky 3-pt attempts.
Parson shot a career high .742 FT% on 3.0 attempts per game in his final year in Houston. Thaddeus managed a meager .712 FT% on 2.9 attempts per game last year and an even .700 FT% for his career for the team that drafted him.
There aren’t too many categories Parsons can improve on but FT% is more than likely going to be one he does. 3.0 attempts per game should hold but an improvement to .750 FT% or higher is also a completely reasonable expectation given the rate at which his free throw percent has climbed since his rookie season. I think after 7 years Thaddeus has shown what kind of free throw shooter he is. You could point to three years ago and say, “but he shot .771 FT% that year”, but then I can point to the year before last when he shot .574 FT%. A projection of .710 FT% on 3.0 attempts is the number but as you can see there’s a whole lot of volatility here too.
Parsons knocked down 1.8 3-pointers per game on what is also a career average .370 3pt%. Thaddeus surprised us all with a career high 1.1 3-pointers game last year but I don’t think anyone was surprised that he did it on only .308 3pt%, not too far off his career average of .321 3pt%.
Chandler Parsons is taking over for the the combined roles of Shawn Marion and Vince Carter. Not to say he’ll average 50-something minutes like the 2 combined for, but given the 3s attempted by the pair I don’t think Parsons drops off at all in 3-pointers attempted. Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis get plenty of attention but with a bunch of oft injured vets as PGs and Tyson Chandler down low not drawing any attention, Parsons might not get the quality of looks he got last year with Dwight Howard and James Harden. I’m projecting 1.7 3PTM per game but admittedly that is the floor. Since we’re assuming Thaddeus continues attempting 3s the question is how many. Since I think he’s going to lose field goal attempts overall I have to also assume he loses some 3-point attempts too. My projection is 0.9 3PTM per game but to be perfectly frank, I don’t think he actually hits that number.
Parsons upped his PPG a full point to a career high 16.6 per game in 13-14. Although his per-36 PPG only went up a half a point. Thad Young’s points shot up by 3 per game for a career high 17.9 points per game. Oddly enough the number of 2-pt shots were exactly the same with the extra 3.5 attempts per game basically all coming from 3-pt range.
At first glance it would make sense Parsons would lose points coming from such a high volume team but I’m not convinced that’s true. Howard and Harden scored a combined 44 PPG, Dirk and Ellis combined for about 40 PPG, and the assists for both pairs are about the same. I projected Chandler Parsons for 15.5 PPG but as I continue to think about it that is probably under his floor. I’ll bump that up to 16.0 PPG but still I consider that his floor with the Mavs. Thaddeus meanwhile is going from probably the most uptempo team with little talent to an up and coming team with good, young, talent at every position. The nearly 18 PPG appears to be an aberration in every way. With more ball movement and better finishers around him I expect his points to fall somewhere between his 12-13, 15 PPG, and his 13-14, 18 PPG. Let me get my abacus out… integrate with respect to Y… carry the 1… That leaves me with 16.5 PPG and that’s my projection (guess).
Parsons managed a slight uptick in boards going from 5.3 RPG to 5.5 RPG. Surprisingly Thaddeus Young saw a sharp decline in boards even though he was the starting PF, from 7.5 RPG the year before to a meager 6.0 RPG this past year.
Parsons is coming off a very high end rebounding team but I don’t think he gets much of an increase in boards. I’m taking the, “He is who we thought he is!” tact on this one and I’m projecting 5.6 RPG for 14-15. Thaddeus is a little more difficult to project. We expect him to play PF again but he’s got much better rebounding bigs around him in Nikola Pekovic and Gorgui Dieng. I’m projecting a repeat 6.0 RPG but admittedly I think that’s his floor and I’m having second thoughts. However I think 7.0 RPG would be pretty close to his ceiling. A career per-36 of 6.6 RPG makes me think last year’s 6.0 RPGs might have been a little flukish so I’ll up it to 6.4 RPG as my projection for this year.
This is where Parsons has really made a name for himself in fantasy. 3.5 APG 2 years ago was high enough but last year he upped it to 4.0 APG all while keeping his turnovers exactly the same. Young was no slouch at 2.3 APG per game but at 2.1 turnovers per game those assists quickly lose their appeal.
Since Parsons is coming from a team that didn’t feature a PG it would make sense his assists come down, however it’s not like the Mavs have much there either and I think Parsons is able to maintain his nearly 4.0 APG. I’ll project him for 3.9 APG because that extra 1 assist every 10 games is asking for way too much. Thad Young is coming over to a team with a very high end assist PG and I don’t expect the Wolves to ask him to distribute. I projected him for 2.1 APG but I’m starting to think that’s high since his career per-36 APG is only 1.6. I’ll leave it at 2.1 APG but I think that’s more than likely his ceiling.
Up until now this has been an incredibly one-sided post. Finally though we come to steals. Parsons with a slight uptick and matching his career per-36 average of 1.2 SPG. Thaddeus has never lacked steals but with a now career per-36 of 1.6 SPG, his 2.1 steals per game last year in 34.4 minutes looks like he busted through the ceiling, hopped in the space shuttle, and is currently residing in the international space station watching the SEC network.
It feels to me like Chandler Parsons has established his steals to be 1.2 per game so that’s where I’ll project it. It isn’t a big number, but for a SF/PF it certainly isn’t below average. I don’t think Young can repeat last year’s steals numbers on Minny, I don’t think he would repeat them with Philly either but that’s besides the point. I’ll give him a slight uptick to his career 1.6 SPG and I’ll project him for 1.7 SPG. For a SF/PF that’s a big number. Top 25 overall in the category and probably top 5-10 for his position. The question now is does the 0.5 a steal per game for Thad make up for nearly every other category? Don’t rush me Slim. (Is it still considered talking in 3rd person if you’re talking to yourself? – Deep Thoughts by Slim.) We’ll get there in a minute, two more categories to do first.
Parsons managed 0.4 BPG and his career per-36 is 0.4 BPG. Young blocked 0.5 per game and his career per-36 is 0.5 BPG
Not much to this one. Chandler should get 0.4 BPG and Thaddeus should get 0.5 BPG, but this isn’t why we’re drafting either.
Chandler Parsons threw the ball away an average if 1.9 times per game, equaling the number from the season before. Thad Young meanwhile shot up from 1.2 TOs per game 12-13 to a career high (although I think we should be calling a career high in turnovers a career low) 2.1 TOs per game last year. Nearly 0.5 a turnover per game over his career per-36s.
I think Parsons shows a small amount of growth and is able to lower his turnovers a smidgen to 1.8 TOs per game. Thaddeus should see less TOs considering I’m projecting him to not have the ball in his hands as much. I’m calling it 2.0 TOs per game but I imagine that’s on the high end. I’ll drop that to an equivalent 1.8 TOs per game. That makes a little more sense.
So a side-by-side comparison looks like this…
Parsons – .470/.750/1.7/16.0/5.6/3.9/1.2/0.4/1.8
Young – .460/.710/0.9/16.5/6.4/2.1/1.7/0.5/1.8
Chandler Parsons takes FG%, FT%, 3PTM, AST
Thaddeus Young takes REB, and STL
PTS, BLK, TOs, are all a push or a negligible at best.
What that doesn’t point out though is how big the differences are in each category. For Parsons, .010 FG% isn’t that significant, .040 FT% will be noticeable, but the 3PTM and assists are nearly double that of Thaddeus and the 4.0 APG from a wing is certainly in the top 10 for the position. As for Thad, the 0.8 board advantage is barely noticeable, so his advantage over Parsons almost entirely comes down to 0.5 SPG. I’m sure there’s a small group of players that would lend itself to favoring a Thad Young pick over Parsons. If I got Kevin Love or Serge Ibaka then steals would be a category I’d be looking for immediately. If I drafted Damian Lillard I would also be looking real hard for steals. I’m searching for some other possibilities but I’m not seeing any, most everyone else in the top 50 is pretty solid on steals but with also adding more assists or 3s than Young does. It looks to me like 90% of the time Chandler Parsons will be a better fit for your team than Thaddeus Young.
There is one other thing. Are they 4th round picks or 5th round picks in a 12er? I think this answer is mostly based on roster composition, for instance if I had 2 PGs and a big then in the 4th round I would more than likely rather look for some more shot blocking/rebounding before it dries up completely. If I had 2 bigs and 1 PG then I would be desperately looking for assists. If it’s late enough in the 4th round and PGs have been mostly picked through I would feel pretty good about taking Parsons in the 4th. For the most part though I would be looking for Chandler Parsons in the 5th as my 1st wing to combine with 2 PGs and 2 bigs. Even in a Love and Lillard pairing Thad Young wouldn’t be someone I was looking for in the 4th round, there are too many other options who do more. If I took a PG in the 3rd round with a Love/Lillard pairing then I would be desperate to find shot blocking before it dried up. Ultimately I think it’s due to Chandler Parsons fitting into more draft builds than Thaddeus Young that makes him a top 50 overall guy and Thaddeus not.