Welcome, Razzball Nation to our weekly deep dive into a player who is falling short of their potential. For my first-time readers, let me explain what it means to be a player that finds themselves featured here. While many players are not meeting their perceived ADP, merely falling short of pre-season value is not the only requirement needed to target a player. There also needs to be a reasonable pathway to increasing their current value, such as a prolonged shooting slump by a consistently respectable shooter. We also look for players who have earned a defined role as well as a healthy dose of minutes that supports a high usage. There are some players who were thought to have increased value this season but have not done so nearly a third of the way through the season.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a player who comes to mind as he is currently ranked 162 on the season compared to a 98th finish last season. Now, while that may look like a guy who has a lot of room for improvement, the issue with him is that he is playing off the bench and has not become the higher usage player we envisioned. Couple that with the fact that NAW is not a good enough shooter to correct his rank and you have the makings of a player that we would not target.
Now that we have cleared that up, let us get on with the show.
“If you want to go and take a ride with me
We 3-wheeling in the fo’ with the gold D’s
Oh why do I live this way? (Hey, must be the money!)”
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Bradley Beal
Taken in the second round of nearly all leagues, there were some high hopes for Beal this season. It was once believed that B-Rad could possibly lead the league in scoring while putting up first-round value. However, with the type of season he is having thus far we are a long way from that type of production. Over the past two weeks, Beal is ranked 145th behind averages of 21.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.9 three’s while shooting 47.5% from the field and 71% from the line. During that span, Beal is down in every statistical category with the exception of assists seeing a slight bump, up from the 4.4 he averaged last year.
One of the biggest drains on Beal’s current rank is his scoring, down ten points per game over the past two weeks in comparison to last season. A trend that simply will not continue, as Beal is too good a player and he will soon figure it out. Part of the issue is that despite the departure of Russell Westbrook, Beal has not absorbed his usage. In fact, we have seen the St. Lunatics’ shot attempts dip to 17.6 compared to his 23 from a year ago. There is a reasonable assumption that Beal can increase his shot attempts and as a result, we see a bump in scoring and threes.
We can also look at free throw attempts as another factor for the decreased scoring. Beal had 7.7 attempts from the line last season compared to 4.4 this season. Some of that regression can be attributed to the new rules that steer away from rewarding players with trips to the line for attempting to draw unorthodox fouls. Brad Beal can find a way to increase his foul shooting attempts and, while it may not return to 7.7, one or two more attempts can be a significant boost to his overall value.
Now is the time to make a move for Beal, as he will likely never be as low in rank again this season. His owners could be growing impatient and may be willing to jettison him in return for a top 50-60 player, which could translate into 30 spots of value if Beal finishes top 30, an entirely attainable goal.
Hit me up in the comments section with your questions and/ or feedback.
Good luck out there people.
Peace.
