The big wings!  Not to be confused with the big wigs.  Not to be confused with the big Whigs.  No William Henry Harrison here…  We got history jokes!  Continuing our week of tiers, which I think is close to the first tier of weeks of content during the preseason (although Slim’s awesome playoff schedule article unquestioningly pushes it into the first tier!), it’s time to group our small forwards.  Certainly a misnomer since guys like Giannis are 7-feet, and the multi-cat guys certainly aren’t small in production.  I’m certainly small in interesting opens!  Intro-ing these tiers articles is tough!  I lump this intro in the “Undraftable in 12ers” Tier.  Here’s the top SF for the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball season:

The “Super elite top-5 overall wing flings” Tier:

1 2 James Harden, HOU SG, SF Very close to Brow for #1, very – and I mean very – minimal knock with Lawson stealing some usage whenever they play together. Brow still has a tad of upside after last year, I don’t know if Harden can go up much higher.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.870/2.5/27.5/5.5/6.6/1.8/0.6/3.8 :36
2 4 Kevin Durant, OKC SF, PF Upside for a return to fantasy’s top player, downside his foot issue hampers yet another season.  I’m obviously closer to the former, but he doesn’t get into the top-3.
Slim’s Projection: .500/.880/2.3/28.0/6.8/4.4/1.1/0.8/3.0 :34
3 5 LeBron James, CLE SF, PF A horrific start turning it over in Cleveland, LeBron also had a steep drop in FG%.  Both should imrpove, but he also has lost the blocks.  Solid #5.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.740/1.6/24.0/6.2/7.2/1.5/0.6/3.5 :36

The “Eesh, it’s tough taking these guys in the 2nd round if I didn’t draft a PG in the first round” Tier:

4 11 Klay Thompson, GSW SG, SF Proliferation of defensive stats and crazy %s for how many treys he takes, Klay has shed the ThrAGNOF label and shit on it.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.880/2.9/20.0/3.3/2.9/1.0/0.6/1.9 :34
5 13 Draymond Green, GSW SF, PF Woooooo, #OccupyDraymondGreen!  Don’t worry about any sort of sharp regression, the multi-cat is here to stay!
Slim’s Projection: .455/.680/1.6/13.0/8.4/4.0/1.7/1.3/1.7 :34
6 15 Jimmy Butler, CHI SG, SF Sure there’s injury concerns, but with Tibs gone, his ridiculous minutes should go down.  Rose will take a little volume, help with efficiency.  Love the strong game with low-TO.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.825/1.0/18.5/5.6/3.1/1.8/0.5/1.4 :36
7 16 Kawhi Leonard, SA SG, SF With LA in town, Kawhi is going to get more shots from deep, wider lanes to drive, and get a career-best in dimes.  Pop’s annoying rotations/minutes is all that stands in the way of a superstar season.  That is, except the scheduling committee giving the Spurs that awful playoff sched…  Smh…
Slim’s Projection: .480/.810/1.3/15.5/6.4/2.8/2.4/0.8/1.6 :34

The “Usable vets and sexy wings/STOP DOUBTING MY WIGGINS LOVE” Tier:

8 20 Paul George, IND SG, SF Even in his best season, he wasn’t a first-round fantasy value.  I do expect a very strong return though, although poor FG% and TO for a wing do have to be addressed with your team build.
Slim’s Projection: .420/.820/2.1/19.5/7.4/3.2/1.7/0.3/2.8 :34
9 21 Andrew Wiggins, MIN SG, SF Clear upside to have a superstar fantasy season, his post-ASB FT volume was insane.  I see monster scoring with a solid FG%, along with baby steps in the D stats.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.790/0.8/21.0/5.2/2.9/1.2/0.8/2.4 :38
10 22 Carmelo Anthony, NYK SF, PF Only 30th in per-game last year, sure injuries factored in, but I don’t think there’s enough reliability here to draft him higher.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.820/1.7/23.0/6.4/3.2/0.9/0.4/2.4 :36
11 28 Gordon Hayward, UTA SG, SF Dante Exum has a torn ACL and the Jazz only have Trey Burke to play PG.  Not much of a change to the slight concern over Hayward’s 5.2:2.8 AST:TO ratio dropping to 4.1:2.7 last year, but Hayward is looking up a tad with no Exum.  Hayward has improved every year.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.820/1.6/20.5/4.7/4.4/1.4/0.5/2.7 :34
12 30 Rudy Gay, SAC SF, PF I imagine I’ll have several shares of Gay stock with this rank, as his inherent boring-ness is going to be overlooked. Career year in 14-15, big boost in AST, should see another boatload of O with Rondo not doing much shooting.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.825/1.1/19.5/5.6/3.1/1.1/0.7/2.2 :34

The “Holy hell, did I really have a 19-spot gap until the next SFs??!?!” Tier:

13 49 Danilo Gallinari, DEN SF Probably my #1 sleeper this year, post-ASB 18.6/4.8/1.9/1.3/0.5 shooting 44.3% from the field, making 2.8 treys, hitting 3.8 FT at 89.1%, and only turning it over 1.3 per.  Still only 27, got the big extension to be “the guy”, and there will be less shots from the PG with Mudiay taking over for Lawson.  Upside to be a dynamic all-cat contributor.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.870/2.2/16.5/4.9/2.1/0.9/0.5/1.5 :32
14 50 Terrence Jones, HOU SF, PF 68th in per-game last year, starting only 24 of 33 games.  As a starter – 13.5/7.6/1.1/0.6/1.8 while shooting 55%, making 0.5 treys, and only 1.3 TO in 29 MPG. Only knock is FT%, but volume is low.  So much upside here.
Slim’s Projection: .515/.625/0.7/13.5/7.8/1.3/0.7/1.7/1.4 :30
15 52 Trevor Ariza, HOU SG, SF Shot 37% from the field for a little over half of 13-14, but turned it around and adds elite-wing steals to a low-TO game.  A little boring, but solid.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.820/2.3/13.0/5.9/2.7/1.8/0.3/1.7 :36
16 54 Tobias Harris, ORL SF, PF True multi-cat contributor, maybe his best asset is the easy-to-find points, but hits all cats with low TO.  Plays a ton of minutes as well.  Just has to keep the ankles taped up.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.800/1.3/17.0/6.2/1.6/1.0/0.6/1.5 :34
17 55 Chandler Parsons, DAL SF, PF Primed for a bigger role in the O, but he’s off arthroscopic knee surgery and has had lingering back issues.  Even at this high feels a little risky, but there’s enough upside…
Slim’s Projection: .470/.735/2.1/16.5/5.3/3.4/1.2/0.4/1.9 :36
18 58 Danny Green, SAS SG, SF Shots/3s to go down, I don’t trust a big minutes increase, and has stretches of invisibility.  It’s his super power!  23rd per-game last year seems mighty unrepeatable with Aldridge.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.840/2.1/11.0/4.4/2.1/1.2/1.0/1.1 :30
19 61 Nicolas Batum, CHA SG, SF Horrible shooting pre-ASB, finally found his stroke for 45% post-ASB, and Hornets need another perimeter guy and facilitator.  Should be OK, low upside.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.840/1.6/11.5/5.9/4.8/1.0/0.6/2.0 :34

The “Interesting mid-round SF for multi-cat… and Kyle Korver” Tier:

20 63 Khris Middleton, MIL SG, SF 34th in total value last year, after only playing 23 MPG through the first 27 games.  Bucks need O, they need treys, and Jabari will be filtered in slowly.  But as the season wears on, Jabari will work into minutes and they’ll shake-up Giannis at different positions, so could be a 2nd half sell-high.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.860/1.4/13.5/4.3/2.8/1.5/0.1/1.6 :32
21 64 DeMarre Carroll, TOR SF, PF Limited upside over last year for a few more shots and a few more treys, steals and blocks from the wing should translate.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.730/1.9/13.5/5.9/1.8/1.5/0.3/1.2 :34
22 69 Kyle Korver, ATL SG, SF Off both ankle and elbow surgeries, it’s tough to see him replicating his ridiculous 3PT% or minutes played.  I’ll let someone else grab him, and when the minutes look a little more stable, maybe venture some buy low offers.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.890/2.7/11.5/3.8/2.7/0.7/0.3/1.4 :32
23 70 Robert Covington, PHI SG, SF In 49 starts last year, 15.2/5.0/1.7/1.6/0.6 with 2.7 treys.  FG% is an issue with how many deep balls he shoots, but should start all year as the starting 3.  Locked in a starting job and on virtually any other team, he’d be higher.  Some Philly risk here since you never know what these schlubs will do.
Slim’s Projection: .405/.820/2.5/15.0/4.7/1.8/1.4/0.6/2.2 :32
24 73 Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL SF, PF Athleticism and highlight-real Inspector Gadget plays seem to make him a tad overrated; treys didn’t develop last year, sub-2 STL+BLK, and 2.1 TO from a wing without doing much else isn’t worth a higher pick to me.  If he didn’t have any upside as a 20-year-old, he’d be even lower.  Upside is already baked in the baklava.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.755/0.3/13.5/6.6/2.9/1.1/1.2/2.1 :32


25 86 DeMar DeRozan, TOR SG, SF Pts is still a category, which is fortunate for DeRozan since he doesn’t do much else.  AST:TO regressed, treys regressed, but maybe some of that had to do with the bad groin injury.  Still worth a fringe top-100 selection.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.830/0.4/22.5/4.4/3.8/1.1/0.3/2.4 :36
26 87 Thaddeus Young, BKN SF, PF Tough season for the Impaler in 14-15, and it looks like the treys are mostly gone and his FT% became catastrophic.  Come for the out-of-position steals, stay for the nickname.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.665/0.5/14.0/6.1/1.7/1.4/0.3/1.5 :30
27 88 Joe Johnson, BKN SG, SF Upped his REB and AST last year, while keeping the TO mad low.  With Jack not really a creator or a 3PT shooter, I could see a lot of O running through Johnson’s hands.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.810/1.6/14.0/4.1/3.5/0.6/0.2/1.7 :32
28 90 P.J. Tucker, PHX SG, SF Put up 11.3/7.4/1.5/1.4/0.3 with 1.1 treys post-ASB last year, and has a little additional upside with Kieff possibly forcing his way into a trade. Sneaky value at wing.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.745/1.2/11.5/7.1/1.6/1.4/0.3/1.3 :34
29 91 Arron Afflalo, NYK SG, SF Tough season last year, really disappeared on the Blazers, but the Poppycockers need offense and another point on that triangle to handle a lot of rock.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.845/1.7/15.5/3.4/2.2/0.5/0.1/1.7 :34
30 92 Kobe Bryant, LAL SG, SF If this doesn’t price me out, eesh I guess I would have to get Kobe and hope for some sort of rejuvenation.  Crushing FG% and TO drain last year, falling apart physically, and a lot of youth around him that won’t make life easier.  Meh.
Slim’s Projection: .400/.830/1.3/18.0/4.7/4.3/0.9/0.2/2.8 :30
31 96 Wilson Chandler, DEN SG, SF The Nugs paid him to play, but I don’t see much of a change to his 85th in per-game numbers last year,  No Lawson gets negated by Gallo commanding shots a whole year and Mudiay not drawing the same defensive pressure.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.770/1.8/14.5/5.8/1.8/0.7/0.4/1.5 :32
32 97 Nikola Mirotic, CHI SF, PF In an uncrowded rotation and a guaranteed 30+ MPG, he’d approach the 50s.  Per-36s 18.1/8.8/2.1/1.2/1.2 with 2.2 treys and only 1.9 TO in his rookie season, and even though he makes a great fit at the 4 next to aging centers, I don’t think you can approach him valued too much higher, although it’s very likely somone in your draft will reach to try to look like the smartest person in the room.  Bulls 5-game finals week gives him a bump, since it’d be easy to see one of Noah/Gasol hurt at that point.
Slim’s Projection: .410/.810/1.5/14.5/6.6/1.4/0.7/0.8/1.9 :28
33 100 Wesley Matthews, POR SG, SF I didn’t think he’d make it top-100 coming off such a major injury and the Mavs clearly stating they’ll be cautious, but the talent pool is just too thin to not take the flier.  If he lasts this far, you’ll have to excersize patience until the second half.
Slim’s Projection: .435/.800/2.3/15.0/3.2/2.4/1.0/0.2/1.4 :32
34 103 Kevin Martin, MIN SG, SF An extremely team-friendly contract for 16-17 as caps expand, he’s a dynamite trade target.  Worried he becomes a 6th man on a contender for the second half.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.890/1.8/18.5/3.2/2.4/0.8/0.1/1.9 :32

The “Last rounds/last pick flier” Tier:

35 106 Otto Porter, WAS SF 1.6/1.1/0.8 AST/STL/BLK last year in per-36s show some limited upside, but he’s going to play a boatload of minutes.  Worth a shot.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.730/1.1/10.5/6.0/1.4/1.2/0.6/1.2 :32
36 109 Ersan Ilyasova, DET SF, PF Out of position treys is nice, but I’m not overpaying for pedestrian boards and defensive stats.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.775/1.3/13.5/5.9/1.3/0.7/0.5/1.1 :30
37 119 Jabari Parker, MIL SF, PF The Bucks are making it sound like they’re going to be EXTREMELY cautious with bringing Jabari along from the torn ACL, and I don’t really blame em.  Worth a gamble especially in IL leagues – with only 2-3 bench spots and no IL, he’ll be a tough hold early on.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.730/0.3/11.5/5.4/1.8/0.9/0.3/1.8 :26
38 122 Luol Deng, MIA SF, PF A full roster should help Deng be a boring last-roster-spot guy, as the battered up Heat saw Deng have a FG% drop in the second half.
Slim’s Projection: .460/.770/1.0/13.5/5.0/1.8/0.8/0.2/1.5 :32
39 130 Stanley Johnson, DET SF Let’s get some sexy rookie hype!  Put up a gaudy 16.2/6.8/2.0/1.8/1.0 slash in 5 appearances in summer ball, with minimal TO and hitting 57.7% from the field.  Can play multiple positions – initially off the bench – but some saucy upside.
Slim’s Projection: .420/.725/0.9/11.0/5.8/1.4/1.2/0.5/1.4 :28
40 137 Justin Anderson, DAL SF More wing rookie nookie, Anderson wouldn’t be nearly this high if it weren’t for vets Parsons and Matthews recovering from injuries.  Mr. Anderson should get a lot of run, especially early.  My name is Neo!
Slim’s Projection: .415/.770/0.9/8.5/3.7/1.3/0.7/0.2/1.4 :24
41 140 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA SF Pretty boring, but has improved his FT% and can give you some out-of-position boards.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.715/0/11.5/7.2/1.5/0.7/0.7/1.2 :30
42 142 Marcus Morris, DET SF, PF Might be a better pick than StanJo in a deeper league, I think he’s the starter at SF out of the gate, then swings to some backup PF. Career-bests in Pts/Reb while tying his career mark in treys in 14-15.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.690/1.5/11.5/5.8/2.1/0.9/0.3/1.0 :30
43 144 Dion Waiters, OKC SG, SF Will pick up a lot of second unit minutes at wing, and mop up in junk time.  Might not be rosterable all year, but a nice streamer in projected blowout matchups.
Slim’s Projection: .400/.710/0.8/10.5/2.1/2.2/0.9/0.3/1.4 :26
44 145 Gerald Henderson, POR SG, SF Dealing with a congenital hip issue, maybe the Blazers don’t end up starting him after all and go with McCollum.  But a few minutes should be there on a team that needs offense.
Slim’s Projection: .435/.810/0.5/12.5/3.6/2.4/0.6/0.3/1.6 :28

The “Undraftable in a 12er” Tier:

45 147 Tony Allen, MEM SG, SF A steals-only specialist, he peaked to 2.0 per last year.  More in the streaming class, but can fit a lot of builds as a last pick.
Slim’s Projection: .485/.640/0.1/8.0/4.3/1.5/1.6/0.3/1.3 :26
46 151 Courtney Lee, MEM SG, SF Overall rank last year was nice, but he started mad hot from the field.  Will get minutes and 1/2/1 3PTM/AST/STL which is nice this late.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.860/1.1/10.5/2.3/1.9/1.0/0.2/1.0 :30
47 152 J.R. Smith, CLE SG, SF Never been a Smiff guy, but nice dimes and steals late.  More a streamer though – I think last year’s numbers with the Cavs were high.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.760/1.9/11.0/3.2/2.1/1.0/0.2/1.2 :26
48 157 Jae Crowder, BOS SF, PF Boston Clam Crowder got to the Celtics and started with a bang, but ended up pretty ho-hum.  Can give you nice D stats, but Boston’s slim rotations will hurt.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.770/1.1/11.0/5.6/1.6/1.1/0.4/0.9 :28
49 160 James Johnson, TOR SF, PF A nightly rainbow line threat even off the bench, we’re still going in with another undefined role.  Nice D stat streamer late in weeks.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.710/0.3/9.5/4.2/1.9/0.9/1.1/1.3 :24
50 163 Gerald Green, MIA SG, SF I think he plays more than Slim does, as I see him at 20 MPG off the bench, then starting on Wade DNP nights.  We all know he can light it up when on.
Slim’s Projection: .410/.815/1.7/10.5/2.4/1.1/0.6/0.2/1.4 :20
51 165 T.J. Warren, PHX SF Markieff Morris is still there, but if he gets moved and the Suns don’t get a SF, T.J. could get a starting role.  His fantasy game is still a little limited to PTS though…
Slim’s Projection: .480/.740/0.1/12.5/3.5/1.1/0.8/0.3/1.4 :26
52 166 Shabazz Muhammad, MIN SG, SF Like LaVine, a ton of minutes will open up for Shabazz when K-Mart is moved, likely at backup wing.  Great numbers as a starter last year at 15.6/4.9/2.0/0.5/0.4, with 1.1 treys and a nice 2.8-3.4 FT volume.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.730/0.5/13.0/4.1/1.2/0.5/0.2/1.1 :24
53 167 Mike Dunleavy, CHI SG, SF Should start, and that’s about all I can say that’s interesting…
Slim’s Projection: .430/.810/1.6/10.0/3.6/1.7/0.5/0.3/0.9 :28
54 171 Bojan Bogdanovic, BKN SG, SF Lost his starting spot to scrubs like Markel Brown and Karasev last year, but is in line to give it a second shot as a starter out of the gate.  ThrAGNOF!
Slim’s Projection: .460/.820/1.4/10.5/3.1/1.1/0.6/0.1/1.3 :28
55 173 Evan Turner, BOS SG, SF The long-term deal for Crowder clouds the minutes.  PTS/REB/AST stats sometimes get overrated for Turner, who isn’t good anywhere else.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.765/0.3/9.5/5.0/4.9/0.9/0.2/2.3 :28
56 177 Donatas Motiejunas, HOU SF, PF He’ll move up a couple if he looks really healthy in pre-season, I worry about the back and don’t think he plays starting C if Dwight gets hurt – I see that for Capela.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.620/0.6/10.0/5.1/1.6/0.6/0.4/1.5 :24
57 178 Rodney Hood, UTA SG, SF Solid as a fill in last year, going 12.7/2.8/2.4/0.9/0.2 with 1.6 treys in 21 starts, but tough to see a 12-team usable role out of the gate.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.770/1.4/10.0/2.7/2.0/0.7/0.2/1.0 :24
58 179 Harrison Barnes, GSW SG, SF Yawn.  Played well in real-life terms last year – yet another time share with Iguodala.  No upside.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.725/1.1/10.5/5.3/1.5/0.7/0.2/1.0 :28
59 180 Paul Pierce, LAC SG, SF Yawn times two.  Should get one last season of nice run with some treys, but you can’t expect a healthy season or big minutes.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.795/1.5/11.5/3.8/1.9/0.6/0.2/1.3 :26
60 183 Corey Brewer, HOU SG, SF Steals late, Brewer also showed he can score a little in reduced minutes with a decent perimeter stroke.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.735/0.8/9.5/3.2/1.4/1.2/0.2/1.2 :22
61 187 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN SF With SG such a revolving door last year, maybe RHJ can sneak in as a big starting SG…  Not banking on it, but some decent defensive stats should be there either way.
Slim’s Projection: .395/.690/0.3/5.5/3.6/1.1/0.8/0.3/0.9 :18
62 192 Jamal Crawford, LAC SG, SF Wherever he lands he’ll play, and will be worth a consistent spot on deep league teams for the treys.  ThrAGNOF!
Slim’s Projection: .400/.875/1.6/12.0/1.8/2.3/0.7/0.1/1.3 :24
63 193 Kelly Oubre, WAS SF I wish he was looking at a bigger role, but is a great fit for instant O behind Bradley Beal.  Love his career upside.
Slim’s Projection: .405/.705/0.6/7.5/3.4/0.7/0.8/0.3/1.2 :18
64 195 Josh Smith, LAC SF, PF Take his almost unusable %s and TO and then give him less minutes.  That’s how to tank a fantasy value, folks!
Slim’s Projection: .420/.545/0.6/11.5/5.7/2.5/0.8/1.6/2.1 :24
65 196 Justise Winslow, MIA SF Likely a year or two away, he plays behind two old wings in Wade and Deng.  Might get a shot if Miami has another injury-plagued season.  Remember when Michael Beasley was usable last year?!
Slim’s Projection: .410/.680/0.4/6.5/2.4/1.0/0.6/0.4/1.1 :18
66 197 Kent Bazemore, ATL SG, SF Two injured vet wings ahead of him (Korver, Thabo), there’s a chance for run here.  Not a good FT shooter, but can hit the D stats pretty well and some dimes.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.605/0.6/5.5/2.8/1.2/0.7/0.3/1.1 :18
67 200 Justin Holiday, ATL SG, SF Like Bazemore, could run with big minutes at backup wing. I think they like Bazemore more for the D so I see bigger minutes for him, Holiday can fill up a stat line as well though.
Slim’s Projection: .405/.795/0.8/7.0/2.0/1.4/0.8/0.4/0.8 :18

To be added: Al-Farouq Aminu was admittedly an oversight being out of the top-200, but I still think he’s in the undraftable tier, I’m not a fan.  He’ll get entered in with my thoughts when the ranks get updated next Monday morning.

  1. Clyde Prompto says:

    Totally agree on Rudy Gay, especially if George Karl fully installs his uptempo offense. Cauley-Stein protecting the rim could lead to a fast-break windfall. I kinda like Luol Deng to have a mini-bounceback. Especially if he found the time to hit up LeBron’s special Miami “vacation” spot.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @Clyde Prompto: Yup he could be a very high-volume scoring 3/4, whichever way they feature the line-up. Interesting on Deng, he did indeed struggle in the 2nd half last year with Bosh and Wade gone as I mention. Haha that sounded dirty, like he found LeBron’s G spot

      • Clyde Prompto says:

        @JB Gilpin: Haha close, his HGH spot.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:

          @Clyde Prompto: Human G Spot Hormone!

  2. kai says:

    i’ll probably take Mirotic as high as the 7th-8th round, especially since so many guys in that range (at all positions) seem to be low upside (post-myles). unless someone like gallo or jones is still sticking around. Hopefully we’ll hear that Miro will start before the beginning of the season.

    post-ASB wiggins was #130, using basketball monster 9 cat ratings, providing a positive in only points and ft%. if i use just his april numbers (when he was playing 40mpg), he approaches neutral in rebounds, steals, assists and tops out at #69. (incidentally, lavine was a better fantasy player over this stretch so….) just sayin’

    • Slim

      Slim says:

      @kai: Here’s the numbers I look at for Wiggins that makes me think he’s going to be a star…

      January, 17 games…

      .471/.790/0.9/19.8/4.6/2.5/1.4/0.6/1.9 :38 min

      If he does that for a season I’m sure it makes him top 25.

      Here’s something else that gets me…
      .430/.873/0.7/20.3/4.4/2.4/1.0/0.9/2.9 rookie year… :35 min.
      .476/.863/1.3/25.3/6.5/2.8/1.3/0.7/3.0 year 2… :39 min.
      That’s the jump Durant made from year 1 to year 2.

      .417/.754/0.8/20.9/5.5/5.9/1.6/0.7/3.5 rookie year… :40 min
      .472/.750/1.4/27.2/7.4/7.2/2.2/0.7/3.3 year 2… :42 min
      That’s the jump LeBron made from year 1 to year 2.

      I’m not saying Wiggins is either but I do think we see that kind of jump in Wiggins stats from year 1 to year 2. The biggest difference is that LeBron and Durant had a 28 USG and Wiggins had a 22, 23 in Jan and 27 in April. What if Wiggins gets to 28 USG and sees that kind of year 1 to year 2 jump? I still firmly believe this will be the last year Wiggins can be drafted outside of the 1st round. I just believe he’s that special of a player.

      • kai says:

        @Slim: W’s january numbers are definitely better – largely because he was actually shooting 3s for that month and got far more steals than in other spots. he got up to #45 over that period. that was also team without rubio and kmart, and spot starting guys like chase budinger and robbie hummel. (incidentally, Wiggins played MUCH better next to Bazz than KMart, suggesting he’ll put up better numbers once KMart is traded in jan-feb). the lineups in May were even worse (even though KMart was back, most lineups featured 3-4 rookies or d-leaguers). I am not sure how much usage he’ll be able to sustain when he’s not force fed the ball anymore. certainly his play with Canada this summer doesn’t provide any reassurances in that regard, but that’s probably not relevant fantasy information.

        the comparison to durant and lebron is specious and i’d rather set more realistic expectations.

        Wiggins is absolutely a special player. I’m merely skeptical that he’s a special FANTASY player. as noted above, even paul george’s best season wasn’t 1st round – and unlike Wiggins, George actually gets 3s and steals!

        • Slim

          Slim says:

          @kai: I’ll take them in reverse order. When Paul George was 19 he was still in college so it’s tough to draw a comp there. George at 21 (his 2nd year) is the closest but it wasn’t until he was 23 (4th year) that he had more points per 36 than Wiggins as a 19 year old rookie. That’s just one cat, points, but that was at a lower FG% than Wiggins as a rook. Yes I expect more 3s from George but I also expect a significantly worse FG% to go with it. Yes I expect more steals too and yes that is the biggest reason why we draft him. But we’re making a comparison with a guy who is universally accepted as a 2nd rounder with plenty of people arguing he was worthy of being drafted in the 1st before he went down.

          I make the comp with LeBron and Durant because it shows how bad they were compared to what we now assume them to be. LeBron as a rook was pretty bad considering the FG%, FT% and TOs but after a year of getting his feet wet he figured out what a good shot was. Same goes for Durant. Also I feel like to properly compare Wiggins to someone it has to be someone as a 19 year old rookie and how they fared the next year, which is why I used those 2.

          I was actually really impressed with Wiggins in FIBA.

          .495/.682(I know I know)/1.5(.517!)/15.1/4.4/2.3/0.8/0.5/2.1 :25.30 min

          Per36 thats about…
          2.0/22.0/6.5/3.5/1.2/0.7/3.0 but with that nice FG%. That’s nearly across the board improvement compared to his rookie per36s. Granted it isn’t the NBA but it definitely shows a more aggressive player. Something I think carries over no matter who he’s on the floor with. I know he deferred to KMart alot but I absolutely expect less of that in his 2nd year and I think playing next to Rubio should only help his FG% grow even bigger. I’ve been thinking for a little while now that my projection of 45% might be too low. I think I’m going to bump that up whenever I make the projection edit.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:

            @kai: @Slim: I don’t know why we’re getting a George comp, but he’s a high-volume low FG% scorer with not quite the FT% upside.

            I’ve hit on these points several times in other comments, maybe it’s worth writing a whole Wiggins article, but I don’t buy the argument the talent around him in Mar/Apr was so bad that it helped Wiggins and it will hurt him this year, as Rubio/the bigs they have aren’t all creative scorers. Rubio should help efficiency as well which Slim and I have both mentioned a lot.

            • kai says:

              @JB Gilpin:

              i can definitely buy that Wiggins numbers won’t be hurt by the change from scrubs to vets this year. I surely hope the fg% can go up (as long as someone…please, god someone…tells him to stop taking turnaround long 2s). but i really do need to reiterate that the cast in March/Apr was horrendous. 8 man lineups featuring significant minutes to Justin Hamilton, Arinze Onuaku, Lorenzo Brown, Zach Lavine, Adreian Payne, Anthony Bennett, Chase Budinger, Robbie Hummel, Gary Neal etc.
              That list includes
              -3 of the worst 10 players in the league according to RPM, and all of whom (aside from wiggins) appear after #330
              -4 minimum FAs / dleaguers
              -a total of 4 guys with a usage over 17%, and several guys closer to ~12%!

              I see his efficiency going up, but hard to see his usage sustaining at 27%…and mpg should go down a tick. in fact, i think minutes the biggest thing I think is off with the projections as well as fantasy comps to Durant/Lebron.

            • kai says:

              @JB Gilpin: also as far as the george comment – i think the point was merely that it’s really hard for wings to break into the top 10 unless they’re transcendent. Wiggins’ top player comps last season (stats/36+age+height/weight) were demar derozan, alec burks, marvin williams, gerald green, luol deng. the comp to burks is astonishingly close


              • Slim

                Slim says:

                @kai: Yeah there are a few issues with all those comps. The biggest one being that non of them are remotely close to Wiggins athleticism which is the main reason guys like LeBron and Durant are able to do what they do at such a high FG%. If Wiggins shot 47% I wouldn’t be surprised at all, and yeah that would definitely be less turnaround long 2s…

                Alot of why I think Wiggins is going to be a great one is purely my faith in him. I get that. I wrote something like 20 ‘I thinks’ in all this. But what he does ain’t up to me. That’s up to him to take the next step. We shall see if he does it. If he doesn’t and simply repeats his rookie year performance then we will all have to take a step back and say maybe he isn’t a great one. If he maxes out as DeRozan then unfortunately Minny won’t be going anywhere anytime soon and he’ll be labelled a bust. But if he turns in a Kobe-esque year 20 then I think this high rank is justified.

                The Millsap piece was a good read and I don’t have the numbers but I’m guessing a guy going from 18 USG off the bench to 22 USG as a starter is very much the exception. Although that might have more to do with Carlos Boozer than anything else… That and bigs tend to be late bloomers so coming into his own at 25 doesn’t seem that odd.

          • kai says:

            wrt 3s – glad he took them at FIBA but ft% & past performance are better predictors of future 3p% than small sample…

            “it definitely shows a more aggressive player”: what was more aggressive? olynyck and brady heslip scored 20 pp36. nik stauskas scored 19 points per 36. this is basically why i’m not taking much away from it.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:

              @kai: @kai: Sounds like we’re just going to have to agree to disagree, we can both cherry pick numbers to make our points and look at the situation in different light. Does Wiggins play 39:17 MPG like he did in the 2nd half? Might be close, but prob not. Does he play more than 34:30 like the first half? Of course. It’s telling that in a tank year they played him that much in a meaningless 2nd half.

              Wait I’m lost – you’re using a 15.9 MPG sample from Alec Burks when he played again second units in his rookie year to Wiggins’ rookie season as a stat comp?

              Lost in all of this is great durability, something I really like.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:

                  @kai: I still don’t love the comp, or the sample size. PG/SG vs. SG/SF and the level of prospect they were. I’ll give that article a little more thought, the link to the “data showing bench players play better when starting” didn’t work, so I dunno

  3. cheapazn says:

    The numbers you project of Wiggins vs. Gay are very similar. How can you justify the rank of 21 for Wiggins vs. the rank of 30 for Gay?

    Wiggins: .450/.790/0.8/21.0/5.2/2.9/1.2/0.8/2.4 :38
    Gay: .450/.825/1.1/19.5/5.6/3.1/1.1/0.7/2.2 :34

      • cheapazn says:

        @JB Gilpin:

        Ahh I see. Could be confusing for some people looking at the rankings for the very first time, which could result in people discounting the accuracy or legitimacy of it.

        Would probably be more clear if you both did rankings AND projections with rationale or if only one of you did it.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:

          @cheapazn: Well we’ve done it this way for 3 years, and it’s why it says “Slim’s pojection” vs. me as the author. I can understand the confusion though, but Slim and I are very yin and yang, he’s more the numbers guy.

        • Slim

          Slim says:

          @cheapazn: Yeah I don’t really “rank” guys per se. This isn’t football! I’m sure there is a build in which I’d rather take Wiggins and one I’d rather take Gay. For those 2 it would come down to how much risk I want to take with Wiggins taking the next step vs Gay getting up there in age and missing some games. I’m sure we could make a case for either in the right scenario.

  4. Justin says:

    wussup man. great posts. here is my team for 12 person H2H 9 cat.

    i know lakers have a bad schedule. but i couldnt pass jordan clarkson as my last pick. what you think? i drafted 9th btw. also, i have a few more drafts coming up. just wondering if i have the right strategy of taking guard first, then a few bigs? cuz i had to pass on jimmy butler to make sure i had a solid big guy (gobert).

    1. Damian Lillard (Por – PG)
    2. Rudy Gobert (Uta – C)
    3. Pau Gasol (Chi – PF,C)
    4. Reggie Jackson (Det – PG,SG)
    5. Elfrid Payton (Orl – PG)
    6. Kenneth Faried (Den – PF,C)
    7. Andrew Wiggins (Min – SG,SF)
    8. Isaiah Thomas (Bos – PG)
    9. Gorgui Dieng (Min – PF,C)
    10. Myles Turner (Ind – C)
    11. Alec Burks (Uta – PG,SG)
    12. P.J. Tucker (Pho – SG,SF)
    13. Jordan Clarkson (LAL – PG

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @Justin: What’s good? Yeah Clarkson that late is a joke. Lovvvve the Lillard Gobert combo, then two solid PG in 4th 5th rounds. Yeah this team looks really good, a lot of my sleepers rounding out the back end, only hole I could see is if Gasol goes down, the boards might fall a tad along with FG%, but very well rounded as it stands now, nice draft!

  5. CTMN says:

    Soooo many in those last 2 tiers, a lot of late SF picks that are pretty likely drops, just seems all around shallower this year.
    It might be the Raptors fan in me but DeMar at 20-4-4 with good high volume FT% seems like he should be higher. Obviously his 3s/stls/blks and FG% suck so maybe not the best pick. But I think he could improve and he fills in a lot of stuff if you pick him late enough, like 6th/7th round.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @CTMN: Yup wings usually litter the 150-200 range.

      Hah yeah we’ve had a lot of DeRozan love in the comments, I don’t know about the 4 dimes, his FG% fell last year, and his AST:TO and 3PTM both took negative steps last year, even pre-injury. Then he had a pretty bad groin tear (owwwwwww). But I couldn’t fault him going in the 7th

      • CTMN says:

        @JB Gilpin: Yeah I def see where you’re coming from. But he can still improve (I think), and it’s a contract year. Maybe more spacing with Patterson starting instead of Amir?
        And Carroll will be there, a real SF, instead of Ross. Last year, teams always put bigger SFs on DeMar, which hurt his post game and overall made scoring way harder big time. That was because Ross is trash at everything. Now Carroll is there, a bigger SF type, so maybe DeMar’s FG% will go up if he can get some better shots while guarded by SGs.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:

          @CTMN: Sure yeah he’s still only 26, not like he’s 32. Hmmmm interesting thought on the spacing, that would theoretically help. Although not like Amir was playing huge minutes last year either. Haha yeah Ross is indeed trash at everything, except maybe wide open dunks haha.

  6. DK says:

    JB, I got draft order no. 14 for my 9cat 14 man league. So far, I’ve been tinkering with it but couldn’t quite find the right match. Since the elite PGs are out of my reach… How should I approach this draft.

    I could probably gotten Gobert along with Millsap, Draymond and all the likes. Who do you suggest for top 4 picks?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @DK: Yikes, that is unfortunate. I think Gobert is easily a must. Man, it might not be too nuts to reach for Bledsoe, since there will already be a run going on the mid-tier PG by you get to your third pick. Have you tried a mock that way?

      • DK says:

        @JB Gilpin: my first mock draft 14. What you think?

        1. Rudy Gobert (Uta – C)
        2. Eric Bledsoe (Pho – PG,SG)
        3. Gordon Hayward (Uta – SG,SF)
        4. Derrick Favors (Uta – PF,C)
        5. Reggie Jackson (Det – PG,SG)
        6. Isaiah Thomas (Bos – PG)
        7. Myles Turner (Ind – C)
        8. Jordan Clarkson (LAL – PG)
        9. P.J. Tucker (Pho – SG,SF)
        10. Jusuf Nurkic (Den – C)
        11. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Det – SG)
        12. Avery Bradley (Bos – PG,SG)
        13. John Henson (Mil – PF,C)

    • CTMN says:

      @JB Gilpin: @DK: Maybe try punting FT% with Drummond and someone? It’s tough to draft that low, need another way to make up for it.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:

        @DK: @CTMN: Whoa, it’s the Jazz squad! Haha. Yeah this looks pretty good to me, my only issue with punting is I don’t love a Drumm/Bledsoe start, and I just dunno if Drumm is top 14. This squad is pretty solid across the board, maybe a smidge low in points and assists, but only barely. Perils of not having one of the top guys or PG

        • DK says:

          @JB Gilpin: yeah, I felt I have to draft multiple PG or guys with Ast just to cover ast and that is still not enough. Anyway I can improve this roster? I’m going to try different combos. But I supposed it is really necessary to have a big and a PG for my 1-2 picks

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:

            @DK: Yeah kinda re-thinking it, I like Clarkson a ton and Hayward chips in dimes, it probably is solid. Just goes to show a pick outside the top 8-9 is really tough. I think at 14, that draft you came out with is really close to what I would do.

            I’m thinking Gobert+Dray or Millsap, then 3/4 be both PG. Teague+maybe Lowry if he falls, or something like that. Then a similar draft the rest of the team. I think I like Dray or Millsap over Hayward more than Bledsoe over Teague or Lowry if that makes any sense haha

            • DK says:

              @JB Gilpin: hmm let me see if I get your right. Grab Gobert or other big like ibaka/pau/Marc and pair it with Dray or Millsap. In that mock, Teague and Lowry is gone by 3rd and 4th. So I am stuck with the 3rd tier ones like Rjax, Rubio, Dragic, It2, Clarkson and Deron. Even Dragic was already gone just now.

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:

                @DK: Hmmmm yeah if Teague Lowry and Dragic are all usually gone, then yeah it’s not looking as good as I hoped. The only way I’d do big+multi-cat is if it was Gobert, not the Gasols or Ibaka. Not quite the upside.

  7. John says:

    Hey JB! I have the 6th overall pick for my draft this year. Rank the order who would you take if available: KD, CP3, Westbrook, Cousins

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @John: That’s the order I have them! Assuming standard 9 cat H2H, that’s my order in my ranks

  8. LOLER says:

    Just traded for KD in my H2H league. I gave away Draymond Green, Khris Middleton and Terrence Jones – I get KD + CJ McCollum. Good trade?

    Here’s my lineup:

    PG – Kemba Walker, Eflrid Payton, Jordan Clarkson
    SG – James Harden, Khris Middleton
    SF – Draymond Green, Danilo Gallinari
    PF – Terrence Jones, Serge Ibaka, Nerlens Noel
    C – Roy Hibbert, Myles Turner, Jusuf Nurkic.

    Thanks for the hardwork as always!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @LOLER: Looking at the line-up, I’m assuming it’s a shallower league, therefore SLAM DUNK! Awesome move getting the studs. Yikes this team is dangerous.

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