Bring the powah!  In one of the more shiftiest of positions in the NBA, we now embrace the stretch-4 as if small ball is the cure-all for everything in the NBA, and have thrown out the twin towers philosophy.  No more Monroe and Drummond and 800 pounds worth of NBA center clogging the paint!  The NBA is getting more versatile, and I think we’re seeing it more with all the ways a PF can help you in fantasy.  Dimes from LeBron, treys from like half of em, a lot of rainbow line threats…  It’s as variant as Johnny Depp’s characters in Tim Burton movies!  Oh wait, they’re all weird/bumbly/creepy, that’s completely wrong…  It’s as variant as nationalities in the NBA!  Love that FIBA had so many NBA players participating, so fun…  Anyway, the point is (if there ever was a point to this open), that PF can fit a lot of builds, and can band-aid some stats late, so it’s not a positional necessity.  I might have made up a completely new term there…  Here’s the top PF for the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball season:

The “Brow could bear my children” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
1 1 Anthony Davis, NO PF, C Fantasy’s unquestioned per-game titan, fantasy rightfully questions the durability.  He’s going to add in a few deep balls and Gentry wants him to have even more O touches.  Viva El Brow!
Slim’s Projection: .515/.810/0.2/26.0/10.5/2.4/1.4/3.0/1.6 :36

The “Former Fantasy MVPs” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
2 4 Kevin Durant, OKC SF, PF Upside for a return to fantasy’s top player, downside his foot issue hampers yet another season.  I’m obviously closer to the former, but he doesn’t get into the top-3.
Slim’s Projection: .500/.880/2.3/28.0/6.8/4.4/1.1/0.8/3.0 :34
3 5 LeBron James, CLE SF, PF A horrific start turning it over in Cleveland, LeBron also had a steep drop in FG%.  Both should imrpove, but he also has lost the blocks.  Solid #5.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.740/1.6/24.0/6.2/7.2/1.5/0.6/3.5 :36

The “Awesome multi-cat guys who you have to nab before Bledsoe and the PG plague” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
4 10 DeMarcus Cousins, SAC PF, C These last 3 are all razor thin, but Boogie takes a huge hit on your TO, and that’s without your team having a PG. That said, he was playing some of his best ball in the 2nd half last year. Now has Rondo to facilitate without stealing shots, along with Willie Cauley-Stein to take some defensive pressure off.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.770/0/25.0/12.5/3.2/1.5/1.7/4.0 :34
5 12 Paul Millsap, ATL PF, C Under appreciated for three seasons now, he should see another small step forward in the perimeter game with DeMarre Carroll out of town.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.755/1.2/18.0/8.0/3.2/1.8/1.0/2.3 :34
6 13 Draymond Green, GSW SF, PF Woooooo, #OccupyDraymondGreen!  Don’t worry about any sort of sharp regression, the multi-cat is here to stay!
Slim’s Projection: .455/.680/1.6/13.0/8.4/4.0/1.7/1.3/1.7 :34

The “Most of these guys are more traditional big men, except the huge risk that is Melo” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
7 17 Blake Griffin, LAC PF, C Nothing seems unrepeatable from last year, love the emerging dimes and improving FT stroke.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.740/0.3/22.5/7.9/5.3/1.0/0.5/2.3 :36
8 18 Serge Ibaka, OKC PF, C Blocks have fallen 4 straight years from 3.7 to 2.4, I don’t know how many treys he takes with Enes Kanter taking so many mid-range opportunities and Durant back. Swats should improve a tad, FG% certainly to go up from last year.
Slim’s Projection: .515/.810/0.7/15.0/8.0/0.9/0.5/2.7/1.5 :32
9 22 Carmelo Anthony, NYK SF, PF Only 30th in per-game last year, sure injuries factored in, but I don’t think there’s enough reliability here to draft him higher.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.820/1.7/23.0/6.4/3.2/0.9/0.4/2.4 :36
10 23 Andre Drummond, DET PF, C Obviously a full-blown punt-FT big, as we move through the ranks I’m treating each pick as a “best pick in a vacuum”.  Upside for monster post stats with no Monroe.
Slim’s Projection: .530/.380/0/16.0/13.5/1.2/0.9/2.0/1.6 :32
11 24 Al Horford, ATL PF, C Going to be very overlooked in 15-16, gives great value in high-volume FG% and microscopic TO that many drafters ignore for bigger counting stats.  MPG risk with some blowouts likely sink his value a tad.
Slim’s Projection: .540/.740/0.2/16.0/7.5/3.3/0.9/1.4/1.5 :32
12 25 Pau Gasol, CHI PF, C Of course he’s very unlikely to replicate 14-15, but he was 13th in per-game/7th in overall value.  This rank already builds in some regression, and he should have the minutes scaled down a tad with no Tibs to hopefully keep him healthy.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.780/0.1/17.0/9.8/2.8/0.3/1.5/1.9 :32
13 27 Nikola Vucevic, ORL PF, C Some look at his low steals and blocks for a big and dismiss him, but was 22nd in per-game last year due to high-volume FG% and a good FT% for a big,  Fits a lot of builds earlier than you would think.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.745/0/20.0/10.5/2.1/0.8/0.7/2.0 :34

The “Most variant range of guys within a tier of PF you’d love getting in the 4th/5th rounds” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
14 30 Rudy Gay, SAC SF, PF I imagine I’ll have several shares of Gay stock with this rank, as his inherent boring-ness is going to be overlooked. Career year in 14-15, big boost in AST, should see another boatload of O with Rondo not doing much shooting.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.825/1.1/19.5/5.6/3.1/1.1/0.7/2.2 :34
15 32 Chris Bosh, MIA PF, C A little risk as he comes off a major health scare, should score a ton of points and keep hitting treys to help his Stl+Blk going down.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.785/1.3/20.0/6.7/2.2/0.8/0.7/2.1 :34
16 35 LaMarcus Aldridge, SA PF, C Huge hit going to the Spurs – lower minutes, fewer shots, I don’t think we see an expanded 3PTM game…  I’m not risking any higher.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.835/0.4/18.5/9.2/2.1/0.7/1.0/1.5 :32
17 36 Derrick Favors, UTA PF, C FG% dropped after Kanter was dealt, will be playing a more mid-range game. Low FT% and blocks not developing into an elite stat keep him a little lower than Slim would like.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.690/0/17.0/8.4/1.5/0.9/1.8/1.8 :32
18 37 Kevin Love, CLE PF, C Shockingly was 33rd in per-game stats even though he was horrific, and FG%/Pts should rise a tad.  Injury risk/minutes limit early/the fact I don’t really want Love on any teams keep him this low.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.810/2.2/18.0/10.2/2.4/0.7/0.5/1.7 :34
19 39 Nerlens Noel, PHI PF, C From Jan 7 to the final 3 games – 42 game stretch of 11.8/9.0/1.7/2.0/2.3 at 49.7% FG.  If there was no Okafor clogging the paint, would be even higher.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.635/0/11.5/8.8/2.0/1.9/2.0/1.9 :32
20 42 Al Jefferson, CHA PF, C Fell down to 48th in per-game stats, but a lot had to do with missing 5 MPG with some easing in off injury mixed in there.  Still was able to maintain the blocks, and has a better playmaker in Batum on the wing.  Should have a nice bounce back, health concern keeps him from going higher
Slim’s Projection: .485/.680/0/17.5/8.6/1.7/0.7/1.3/1.2 :32

The “Hard to get overly excited for any of these guys except TJones as a sleeper” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
21 47 Greg Monroe, MIL PF, C Lack of blocks hurt, but has the whole post to himself for the first time in a while, and finally started making FT at 75% last year.  Should improve in FG% from last year as well.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.745/0/18.0/10.5/2.3/1.2/0.6/2.3 :34
22 50 Terrence Jones, HOU SF, PF 68th in per-game last year, starting only 24 of 33 games.  As a starter – 13.5/7.6/1.1/0.6/1.8 while shooting 55%, making 0.5 treys, and only 1.3 TO in 29 MPG. Only knock is FT%, but volume is low.  So much upside here.
Slim’s Projection: .515/.625/0.7/13.5/7.8/1.3/0.7/1.7/1.4 :30
23 54 Tobias Harris, ORL SF, PF True multi-cat contributor, maybe his best asset is the easy-to-find points, but hits all cats with low TO.  Plays a ton of minutes as well.  Just has to keep the ankles taped up.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.800/1.3/17.0/6.2/1.6/1.0/0.6/1.5 :34
24 55 Chandler Parsons, DAL SF, PF Primed for a bigger role in the O, but he’s off arthroscopic knee surgery and has had lingering back issues.  Even at this high feels a little risky, but there’s enough upside…
Slim’s Projection: .470/.735/2.1/16.5/5.3/3.4/1.2/0.4/1.9 :36
25 56 Kenneth Faried, DEN PF, C New regime seems to like him, improved the steals and blocks over the second half, and I think we finally see a high MPG for the Manimal.  Manimal unleashed!
Slim’s Projection: .500/.705/0/15.0/9.7/1.2/1.2/1.1/1.9 :30

The “Swiss Army knives of PF fitting all sorts of different builds harkening to the intro” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
26 64 DeMarre Carroll, TOR SF, PF Limited upside over last year for a few more shots and a few more treys, steals and blocks from the wing should translate.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.730/1.9/13.5/5.9/1.8/1.5/0.3/1.2 :34
27 67 Tim Duncan, SA PF, C The falling off a cliff hasn’t happened yet, even though everyone has predicted it the past 5 years.  21st in per-game last year, Aldridge and missed games drop him to this point.  I could actually see feeling pretty good lucking into him by the 6th.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.735/0/12.5/8.9/2.8/0.6/1.7/1.5 :28
28 68 Dirk Nowitzki, DAL PF, C Dirk probably has a little better upside than Timmay, but much greater downside.  The Germinator took his first step off that cliff, with career-lows virtually across the board when you throw out his rookie season.  Played under 30 MPG last year for the first time since his rookie season as well.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.880/1.2/17.0/5.7/1.8/0.5/0.4/1.1 :28
29 73 Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL SF, PF Athleticism and highlight-real Inspector Gadget plays seem to make him a tad overrated; treys didn’t develop last year, sub-2 STL+BLK, and 2.1 TO from a wing without doing much else isn’t worth a higher pick to me.  If he didn’t have any upside as a 20-year-old, he’d be even lower.  Upside is already baked in the baklava.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.755/0.3/13.5/6.6/2.9/1.1/1.2/2.1 :32
30 79 Gorgui Dieng, MIN PF, C As a starter – 10.8/8.8/2.3/1.1/2.0 hitting 50.8% from the field and 78.1% from the line last year.  But like Towns, the stable of big men is a huge concern, and he only played 28:43 MPG pre-ASB last year.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.770/0/10.0/8.3/2.1/0.9/1.7/1.7 :28
31 82 Markieff Morris, PHX? PF, C I had him 62 in the initial rankings post, internal strife with the Suns is really making him a scary pick, especially with a limited number of teams he could go to and produce a similar stat line to 14-15.  DOWN – Still no resolution here, with him still a whiny baby.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.770/0.8/16.0/6.3/2.5/1.2/0.5/2.1 :32
32 87 Thaddeus Young, BKN SF, PF Tough season for the Impaler in 14-15, and it looks like the treys are mostly gone and his FT% became catastrophic.  Come for the out-of-position steals, stay for the nickname.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.665/0.5/14.0/6.1/1.7/1.4/0.3/1.5 :30

The “Older boring rustier and shiny new unknown versions of said Swiss Army knives” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
33 94 Joakim Noah, CHI PF, C Rumors swirling he could be coming off the bench, and is off career-lows in both FG% and FT%.  But even with Rose back a good chunk of last year, kept the dimes up.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.690/0/9.5/9.8/4.4/0.8/1.2/1.8 :30
34 97 Nikola Mirotic, CHI SF, PF In an uncrowded rotation and a guaranteed 30+ MPG, he’d approach the 50s.  Per-36s 18.1/8.8/2.1/1.2/1.2 with 2.2 treys and only 1.9 TO in his rookie season, and even though he makes a great fit at the 4 next to aging centers, I don’t think you can approach him valued too much higher, although it’s very likely somone in your draft will reach to try to look like the smartest person in the room.  Bulls 5-game finals week gives him a bump, since it’d be easy to see one of Noah/Gasol hurt at that point.
Slim’s Projection: .410/.810/1.5/14.5/6.6/1.4/0.7/0.8/1.9 :28
35 99 Zach Randolph, MEM PF, C Boring, but 1.0 STL was his highest since 09-10 and 48.7 FG% highest since 10-11.  Those aren’t reasons to project upside, but indicate he’s not going to incrementally deteriorate trying to be the same exact player.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.765/0/16.0/10.1/2.0/0.8/0.2/2.2 :32
36 102 Aaron Gordon, ORL PF Summer Ball ultimate small-sample 3 games of 21.7/11.7/2.7/1.3/1.7 and hit 6-12 treys.  FT% is a concern, but upside for some great D-stats and a trey or two.  Off jaw surgery, he may have to start with a mask which hopefully doesn’t impact his game.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.580/0.8/11.5/7.5/1.5/0.9/0.9/1.6 :28
37 105 Patrick Patterson, TOR PF, C How the Raptors play their big men has been a big topic of discussion in the comments, and while I don’t see PIt-Pat playing huge minutes, I think he gets to 28-29 after 26:20 last year, and he finished top-100 in 9-cat metrics.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.760/1.3/9.0/5.8/2.1/0.8/0.5/0.8 :28
38 109 Ersan Ilyasova, DET SF, PF Out of position treys is nice, but I’m not overpaying for pedestrian boards and defensive stats.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.775/1.3/13.5/5.9/1.3/0.7/0.5/1.1 :30

The “Last rounds/last pick flier” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
39 119 Jabari Parker, MIL SF, PF The Bucks are making it sound like they’re going to be EXTREMELY cautious with bringing Jabari along from the torn ACL, and I don’t really blame em.  Worth a gamble especially in IL leagues – with only 2-3 bench spots and no IL, he’ll be a tough hold early on.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.730/0.3/11.5/5.4/1.8/0.9/0.3/1.8 :26
40 121 Ed Davis, POR PF, C He seems to be becoming the unpopular big in the Blazers’ mystery rotation, but over his last 54 games – most of last year after getting really inconsistent run early – 9.1/7.9/1.4/0.6/1.3 with virtually no TO and 60% from the field in only 23.7 MPG.  Will likely play more minutes in Portland, and scaling those numbers up will be really interesting.
Slim’s Projection: .565/.560/0/11.0/7.8/1.4/0.6/1.3/1.0 :28
41 122 Luol Deng, MIA SF, PF A full roster should help Deng be a boring last-roster-spot guy, as the battered up Heat saw Deng have a FG% drop in the second half.
Slim’s Projection: .460/.770/1.0/13.5/5.0/1.8/0.8/0.2/1.5 :32
42 123 Ryan Anderson, NO PF, C Injuries have taken their toll, but he can light up a ton of treys out-of-position and nab a couple boards.  If we knew he’d be healthy all year, he’d probably be in the top 100.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.860/2.2/14.0/4.9/1.0/0.5/0.3/1.0 :28
43 124 John Henson, MIL PF, C 2.0 blocks in only 18:20 MPG last year was crazy talk, and should easily play more this season especially with Jabari coming back slow – there aren’t any other PF options.
Slim’s Projection: .555/.575/0/9.5/6.6/1.3/0.5/2.0/1.6 :24
44 128 Mason Plumlee, POR PF, C Super-buzzy last year after making team USA and given a role, he nosedived horrifically…  And now he has an even bigger shot!  FT% issues and foul-trouble are still a concern, as is overall consistency.
Slim’s Projection: .610/.535/0/11.5/7.7/1.0/0.9/1.0/1.8 :26
45 132 Jordan Hill, IND PF, C Should be able to replicate what he did last year – minus a couple of points – in what was a useful season at times.  Not “speeding” to get him though!
Slim’s Projection: .475/.720/0/11.0/7.5/1.3/0.4/0.8/1.4 :24
46 138 Dwight Howard, HOU PF, C I’ve utterly ignored him for years now, and nothing changes this season. Off several injuries and a disappearance of blocks.
Slim’s Projection: .580/.535/0/15.5/10.2/1.2/0.7/1.4/2.8 :30
47 141 Omer Asik, NO PF, C Should give you another season of 25-26 minutes, 8/10 with almost a block.  Meh.
Slim’s Projection: .525/.595/0/7.5/10.0/0.8/0.4/0.7/1.3 :26
48 142 Marcus Morris, DET SF, PF Might be a better pick than StanJo in a deeper league, I think he’s the starter at SF out of the gate, then swings to some backup PF. Career-bests in Pts/Reb while tying his career mark in treys in 14-15.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.690/1.5/11.5/5.8/2.1/0.9/0.3/1.0 :30
49 143 Kyle O’Quinn, NYK PF, C He could find himself starting some games at the 4, but either way should pick up solid backup PF/C minutes as they ease Porzingis in.  Expanded 3PT game and a nice FT% has him a very solid per-36 player.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.740/0.4/7.5/4.4/1.6/0.7/1.1/1.1 :20

The “Undraftable in a 12er” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
50 148 David West, SA PF I think he gets more run than some (although Slim’s Proj looks right on), as he cleans up with the second unit.  Actually, Slim’s line would make him rank a bit higher than this rank.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.770/0/10.5/6.2/2.8/0.5/0.5/1.4 :26
51 150 Kristaps Porzingis, NYK PF Love Porzingis’s career upside, hate that Phil J has said repeatedly they’ll bring him along slow.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.750/0.9/10.0/4.1/0.9/0.6/0.9/1.5 :22
52 156 Kosta Koufos, SAC PF, C Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he’s a favorite of George Karl and should see 25+ minutes.  Will get plenty of boards and 1.5 blocks in that kind of run (Slim seems to sell the swats a tad short in his proj).
Slim’s Projection: .505/.650/0/8.5/7.8/0.7/0.5/1.2/1.2 :26
53 157 Jae Crowder, BOS SF, PF Boston Clam Crowder got to the Celtics and started with a bang, but ended up pretty ho-hum.  Can give you nice D stats, but Boston’s slim rotations will hurt.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.770/1.1/11.0/5.6/1.6/1.1/0.4/0.9 :28
54 158 Jared Sullinger, BOS PF, C Slim rotations hurt Sully too, even if he has a slim tummy.  Everyone loves a good weight loss, but I don’t see the minutes Slim does.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.760/0.9/14.0/8.0/2.3/0.8/0.7/1.4 :28
55 159 Dwight Powell, DAL PF A swing-for-the-fences pick, Powell took a bajillion treys in summer ball and looked great for Team Canada. They’re grooming him to be the next Dirk, and he figures to get a lot of rock when playing backup PF/C.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.750/0.7/9.0/5.5/0.9/0.8/0.6/1.1 :24
56 160 James Johnson, TOR SF, PF A nightly rainbow line threat even off the bench, we’re still going in with another undefined role.  Nice D stat streamer late in weeks.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.710/0.3/9.5/4.2/1.9/0.9/1.1/1.3 :24
57 161 Julius Randle, LAL PF On the outside looking in for a 12 team roster, but sounds like he’ll start.  Limits in FT%, blocks, and TO make him tough to project for big upside.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.675/0/13.5/6.8/1.4/0.6/0.4/2.2 :28
58 164 Clint Capela, HOU PF, C Any backup to Dwight is worth owning as a handcuff (deja vu!), and should play either way off the pine.  Even as a reserve, should get big swats.
Slim’s Projection: .575/.600/0/7.5/6.8/0.6/0.6/1.4/1.0 :20
59 170 Amir Johnson, BOS PF, C Awful rotation and B-Rad runs his bigs thin.  I’ll pass in 12ers.
Slim’s Projection: .565/.645/0.2/10.0/6.8/1.6/0.6/0.9/1.6 :28
60 175 Tristan Thompson, CLE? PF, C Contract isn’t quite settled, but his unusability in 12ers is.  Maybe a sign-and-trade with Phoenix!
Slim’s Projection: .495/.650/0/8.5/7.4/0.3/0.4/0.6/1.0 :26
61 177 Donatas Motiejunas, HOU SF, PF He’ll move up a couple if he looks really healthy in pre-season, I worry about the back and don’t think he plays starting C if Dwight gets hurt – I see that for Capela.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.620/0.6/10.0/5.1/1.6/0.6/0.4/1.5 :24
62 181 Meyers Leonard, POR PF, C Seems to be a popular sleeper candidate, his lack of blocks really hurt.  Nice for the out-of-position treys and boards, but I think his upside is capped by no AST/STL/BLK.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.825/1.3/10.5/7.4/1.0/0.3/0.4/1.1 :26
63 184 Nemanja Bjelica, MIN PF Played unreal ball in EuroBasket – expected to contribute right away, but is in a crowded mix of wings and bigs.
Slim’s Projection: .460/.745/0.9/8.5/5.8/1.6/0.6/0.3/0.8 :22
64 195 Josh Smith, LAC SF, PF Take his almost unusable %s and TO and then give him less minutes.  That’s how to tank a fantasy value, folks!
Slim’s Projection: .420/.545/0.6/11.5/5.7/2.5/0.8/1.6/2.1 :24
65 198 Noah Vonleh, POR PF Second half could be very interesting for the stretch 4, but it looks like it’ll be a good ways out until they unleash the youngun.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.745/0.9/10.5/6.1/0.4/0.4/0.6/1.4 :24
  1. dan-o1 says:
    (link)

    how far from making this list do you put grant, considering he’s going to start at PF for philly?. was going to ask same thing about bjelica with bennett gone, but see he’s on it.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @dan-o1: Barring injury, Grant isn’t going to start at PF in Philly. He’ll get a lot of minutes there, but he’s not going to bump Noel/Okafor from the starting unit. As of now it looks like Wroten/Sauce Castillo/Covington/Noel/Okafor with Grant in a 6th man role. But with Okafor’s deficiencies (defense & FTs) there could be a lot of minutes available at the 4 when Noel slides to the 5.

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @dan-o1: Yeah I don’t think he starts. He really can’t shoot either. They gave him a chance at the end of the year with 11 starts.

      .253/.500/0.8/6.7/3.6/1.6/0.8/1.4/1.9 :28 min

      That 0.8 3s came on 18.8% (9/48) and that .500 FT% came on nearly 4 attempts per game. From the looks of it he’s like a poor mans Josh Smith but the closest comp I can come up with is Chris Singleton who played 3 years and isn’t in the league anymore. I’m not saying he won’t make it but he desperately needs to work on his shot if he wants to stick around. Even if he gets 24 or so minutes I think he’s going to hurt more than he helps. In roto he’s very much off limits. In a ridiculously deep league I could see giving him a shot if we think his offense is going to improve, probably more a wait and see thing though. And of course if Bennett signs it should negatively effect Grant’s minutes.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @dan-o1: @Matty: @Slim: Yup what those guys said! I’ll add his blocks numbers from last year also came from a few crazy outlier games, I think he had an 8 blk game in there

      • dan-o1 says:
        (link)

        @Matty: @Slim: thank you.

  2. Clyde Prompto says:
    (link)

    Niiice. It seems like PF offers the most in the way of interesting flyer-type guys. Mason Plumlee and John Henson have the tools and upside. Ryan Anderson and Ersan Ilyasova have been fantasy gold in the past and are too young to be totally washed up.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Clyde Prompto: Yup, and like in the open, Plum/Henson could be solid blocky bigs to take fliers on, Ily/Ryno for Pts/3s.

  3. Matty

    Matty says:
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    Personally I’d put Brow & KD in a top tier as they’re the two guys who have #1 overall upside with PF eligibility. If KD really is as healthy as all reports suggest he is (and being cleared for all training camp activities is pretty solid confirmation), it’s going to be a terrific battle for 2015 Fantasy MVP.

    LeBron just doesn’t do it for me – it’s concerning that even on per game value (so, accounting for missed games) he only tied for 12th last year with Pau. He’s BARELY a first round guy in the games he plays. Take into account a likely reduction in minutes and almost guaranteed rest days, and I’m not sure he cracks the top-15 total value (he didn’t last year). I’m absolutely taking DMC over LBJ and I’m thinking long and hard about both Sapper and Draymond as well.

    And if Scott Skiles can milk a little more defensive production from Vuc, I think he can jump to the top of his tier along with the likes of Griffin, Ibaka et al.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Matty: I definitely agree with your points about KD and Vuc. KD certainly should be in the top tier since we really haven’t see his peak yet, plus he was the best in the world up until a fluke injury.

      As for Lebron, he’s definitely peaked, but I think he’s too consistent to move down. You have to take into account that his turnover rate last year was extremely uncharacteristic, as well as his percentages. I’m a Cavs fan, and watched every game last season.. Lebron didn’t look like himself finishing at the rim for a large portion of the season, that changed towards the end, and there’s no reason why he can’t stay at his normal rate this year.

      • Matty

        Matty says:
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        @Adam: Gentlemen’s bet on Lebron?

        I say LBJ finishes the 2015/2016 season outside the top-12 in per game value and outside the top-20 in total value (9-cat scoring).

        • Adam

          Adam says:
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          @Matty: I’m game lol. So to clarify, if he comes in under either of those then it’s a win? Which player rater is being used to determine total value in 9-cat scoring?

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Matty: @Adam: Well I think it’s just the risk for KD keeps him closer to LeBron than up to Brow. Adam, you really don’t think he’s gotten to a peak yet? He’s entering his 9th season and will be 27. Not saying you’re wrong, but I definitely think he’s plateaued, as I mentioned on the Pod, we’ve seen foot injuries derail players before. Given his new procedure might make it a non-factor.

            I dunno, we’ve gotten a pretty big sample on Vuc, and STL/BLK just aren’t there. I had to even convince Slim why I had him as high as I do.

            So when LeBron got to Miami, in yr 1 he also had a spike in TO, then the rate improved while there as did FG% as they got used to each other. I can see that happening again this year in CLE.

            I’ll take that LeBron bet as well, what are the stakes?!

            • Matty

              Matty says:
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              @Adam: @JB Gilpin: Adam – yeah, if LBJ finishes 13th or worse in per game value and 21st or worse in total value, I win. Anything better, you do. Let’s use Basketball Monster for valuation.

              JB – no stakes really, just bragging rights and the satisfaction for me (if/when I win) that LBJ is an overrated fantasy asset! Now if you wanna do another hotter-than-hell wing bet, you have my attention…(though now that you’re a married man, I don’t think you can participate in such tomfoolery.)

              Re: Vuc – it’s all about the new coaching staff. Vuc has a pretty refined offensive game and can be left alone for the most part on that end. But if Skiles wants to really max out his potential, he’s going to have to hammer home the importance of defense. Also, Orlando is going nowhere without a rim protecter even if Elfrid and Oladipo are solid perimeter defenders. Tobias doesn’t block shots, so unless Aaron Gordon turns into the second coming of Serge Ibake in terms of helpside swats, the Magic are going to continue to be bottom third in defensive efficiency (25th last year).

              • Adam

                Adam says:
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                @Matty: Matty – Sounds good! I think Lebron isn’t going to be top 5, but should be pretty safe by those standards.

                JB – In his last full season KD had his max scoring output, while continuing to show an increase in 3 pointers, FG% and assists that has been a trend since the beginning of his career. He has improved every year so far and there’s no reason to think that the trend won’t continue. He is extremely driven, and he’s driven to become the most complete player he can be, particularly in the areas of efficiency and distributing. These areas are going to continue to improve for him.

                The foot issue doesn’t bother me much, because of the new procedure for one, the fact that he gave it so much to heal for two, and the fact that KD doesn’t rely on explosive athleticism like Rose, Griffin, etc. do. His finesse game should be just fine.

                • CTMN says:
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                  @Adam: I don’t think KD has ever been better than LeBron, even in his MVP year (although he has been better stats wise for years now) but I think this might be the year he overtakes him in reality. It would have been last year if KD was healthy. Like you said, I think KD can still improve tho.

                  • Adam

                    Adam says:
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                    @CTMN: Exactly, KD has always been known as the better scorer, but he’s consistently improved his defense, passing etc. every year now. He becomes more and more well rounded every season, and this is definitely going to be an exciting year to watch him. It’s a shame he got derailed last year.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @Adam: Well not health reasons in that his risk for injury for DNPs is any different than any other player, but he is off a major injury and played a ton of minutes, maybe he starts slow a half-step slower and the footwork messes up his shot a bit? I’m more thinking of that

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @Matty: @Adam: @CTMN: Hah, I already gotta do some sort of volume challenge for the RCLs, I highly doubt I’ll beat it but I’m going to give it my all and vom tryin!

                    Well I don’t think Gordon is Ibaka, but I do think he’s an immediate impact rim protector.

                    Good point on KD. I like him a ton, just not quite over Curry like you have em Adam.

                    CTMN – Durant was way over LeBron in BBM metrics in both 12-13 and 13-14. https://basketballmonster.com/PlayerRankings.aspx you can filter it by year at the top.

                    I’m certainly cheering for KD to be healthy and stay at his level!

                    • Adam

                      Adam says:
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                      @JB Gilpin: Basically you don’t have him over Curry for health reasons though. If KD has a healthy year, he’s a no doubt, top 3 guy, which would bump Curry a spot.

                    • CTMN says:
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                      @JB Gilpin: Oh, I know Durant has been the better fantasy player for 3+ years now. I meant in reality. But yeah, Durant might be better in both this year.

  4. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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    JB! Thought id toss out a thank you for the Adam Conley advice! Threw a gem last night right when we need it most. I believe you called it a “deep sleeper” stream for the week, but you nailed it!

    • Slim

      Slim says:
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      @Bryce Krispie Treats: I streamed him in my only Baseball league playoffs too, and I was going against Kluber. Win-Win!

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Bryce Krispie Treats: @Slim: Wooooo thanks man! Yup good matchup and he has underrated stuff. Glad it worked!

  5. John says:
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    Hey JB, who would you take as 12th pick flier… Meyers Leonard (POR) or Myles Turner (IND)

    • CTMN says:
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      @John: I’m not him but I can pretty confidently say he’d take Turner. By a lot.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @John: @CTMN: Hah yup it’s Turner by a mile. I have Turner 62nd overall. Rare mix of good %s, blocks, and 3s. Leonard I have all the way at 181, but I am considering moving him up, especially if they say he’ll be the starter. He just doesn’t block shots or score enough to have great value

  6. kai says:
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    does Paul George’s value change at all a) if he gets PF eligibility and, b) if he actually spends significant chunks of time playing PF?

    “An idea on paper is to have a starting lineup of George Hill, Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles, Paul George and Ian Mahinmi,” said Vogel.

    also, if the above is indeed the starting lineup on day 1, I might hold off on Turner until the later rounds and/or wait for an impatient owner to drop him. i know over the course of the season it should work out, but fantasy owners can be fickle…

    • CTMN says:
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      @kai: Wow I saw the George starting at PF news but I didn’t see the part about Mahinmi. I think George will get PF eligibility and get some minutes there but I don’t think he’ll start there all year. We’ve seen with Shane Battier and LeBron, it just takes too much of a toll on a SF’s body to play against starting PFs all year. Also, George is coming off major injury – not ideal to play him against more physical players. I think he gets a little bit of time but not too much at PF by the end of the season. IMO this just makes Draymond Green even more impressive and unique, a guy around 6’6 who handles good physical PFs every night.
      As for Turner – I agree with exactly what you said. Hopefully this news prevents his yahoo rank from going up, lol 170 is pretty terrible tho.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @kai: @CTMN: EWWWWWWW starting CJ Miles?!??!?!? Yike Mahinmi shouldn’t be starting over Hill, much less Turner. I get the defense over Hill, but Mahinmi is such garbage offensively and his FT% is even more offensive.

        At least on Yahoo, nah I don’t think it changes George’s value at all since so many players have dual eligibility. It’s not hard to tinker things around to get full lineups. If he gets it on say ESPN if he’s SF-only, it’s a minor boost.

      • Adam

        Adam says:
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        @CTMN: I doubt anyone savvy enough to draft Turner would drop or sell him low. This news doesn’t really change his value at all, in fact, it was pretty expected. Aside from the terrible lottery teams, it’s rare for rookies to start right away. Mahinmi isn’t a major roadblock in this case.

        Kai – I agree with CTMN, I’d guess the lineups with George at the PF would be based more on the team they’re playing, rather than having a set lineup. It makes sense to start George against less physical perimeter bigs, and not against the banging post bigs. It doesn’t affect his value much, simply because George is coming off a major injury and he has never put up 1st round value in his career.

        • A Hill O' Beans says:
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          @Adam: “he [Paul George]has never put up 1st round value in his career.”

          I’ve read that a few times on here lately, by a variety of different people. So keep in mind this isn’t necessarily directed at you Adam. But, at this point I feel the need to throw this out there.

          Paul George was ranked 12th in per game according to Basketball Monster in his last full season (13/14). He moves up to 10th if you’re looking at total stats that year. The year before he was 12th in total ranking and 18th in per game ranking.

          Paul George was also ranked 10th in per game and total according to Yahoo in his last full season (13/14).

          I get the worry coming off a BAD injury, I do, but let’s stop with the “he’s never been a first round player” narrative. It’s just not true. It’s not.

          • Adam

            Adam says:
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            @A Hill O’ Beans: Fair enough, I just checked that out, and honestly was just parroting what I had heard on that one. I’ll have to check with JB and see where that’s coming from.

            On the other hand, much of his production at that time was due to an exceptionally high usage rate, and a high minutes total that he likely won’t see after an injury. The highest he scored per 36 was 20th over all per that stat, and I think that’s a fairly solid estimate of where he’ll end up. In fact, 36 may be generous coming off that type of injury, plus Monta will be there to suck up a fair amount of the usage rate.

            PG-13 has never been a model of efficiency, and I think that will come back to hurt him on a team with more weapons. The skill is clearly there though to be a first rounder, I just think there are much more reliable options to use a first or second round pick on this season.

            I hope that clarified my position some.

            Thanks for the correction!

            • A Hill O' Beans says:
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              @Adam: No problem Adam. I get the usage may come down, and the injury (as i said before) is scary no question. He’s also not overly efficient, no real argument for that one. I’m not at all suggesting he should be a first rounder this year, end of the second round seems about right to me for this year until he proves he’s over the injury.

              As for the per 36 stats though, I will make an argument there. Indiana was a defense first, slow it down to a crawl team who had no problem winning 85-75. That was evidenced by their being 20th and 25th in pace the last two years that George played. Does anyone think that Indiana will be in the bottom third of the league when it comes to pace this year? After they got rid of Hibbert and West, and their coach and GM have spent all summer talking about playing small ball and “being a more prolific offensive team”? I don’t think so…

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Adam: @A Hill O’ Beans: Well I don’t think I said that, I think Slim did, not to throw Slim under the bus 🙂

                I did just wonder why kai was comping George to Wiggins, not slamming George’s value.

                I actually think I have George ranked pretty well, he’s higher in my ranks than Yahoo ADP. (20 v 23.6). Sounds like we have George about the same.

                Very nice point about how slow they played. Upside is more than definitely (phrase police!) there. But as I mention above with KD, maybe off injuries he starts a little slow getting his legs fully under him.

                One last note on George in 13-14 – even though he was still 15th in per-game in the second half, he shot a really high volume sub-40% from the field, he DeAndre Jordan-ed your FG% when he, and well the whole Pacers team, got cold.

                • A Hill O' Beans says:
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                  @JB Gilpin: “Even in his best season, he wasn’t a first-round fantasy value. I do expect a very strong return though, although poor FG% and TO for a wing do have to be addressed with your team build.”

                  I’m not saying who wrote this, but it is the blurb from Paul George’s ranking. [Mr. Green walks away slowly…]

                  I’m pretty sure we agree on his ranking though, ha-ha.

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @A Hill O’ Beans: Hahahaha dammit! I wrote that like 2 months ago by now, totally forgot 🙂

                    I will have to fix, and you will get a mention in the official ranks 🙂 Gonna have a new update out Monday morning.

                    • A Hill O' Beans says:
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                      @JB Gilpin: Ha-ha, nice.

                      I’ll be waiting for those updated rankings as I’ve got my first draft in just over a week. Frankly I’m amazed I have held off having one this long, ha-ha. Almost REL time though JB!

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @A Hill O’ Beans: REL draft only 13 days away!!!!!!!!!

                • Slim

                  Slim says:
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                  @JB Gilpin: And I still believe it. The only way Paul George would ever make my team in the 1st round is if I was planning on punting FG%. Saying someone has him 12th in per game value means absolutely nothing to me since that assumes all categories are equally weighted. The only reason Lillard is in the 1st round is because he’s on my REL team! Really, it’s because he’s a PG and we really don’t know just how high his counting stats might go. But I definitely think the best Lillard team is probably punting FG%. I wrote a Melo v George post last year before he went down. I gave him some ridiculous numbers but still said I’m not taking him in the 1st round.

                  • A Hill O' Beans says:
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                    @Slim: Let’s be clear though, there’s a big difference between saying someone isn’t worth a first round pick, or saying you wouldn’t take a player in the first round, which are both subjective opinions, versus saying someone has never put up first round value. Since George put up first round value in his age 23 season (total and avg) and his age 22 season (total) the latter is just untrue even though it’s been said by most around here since last season. It’s not an opinion, it’s just not true. For this season anyway I think we all agree on the former, he’s not worth a first round pick right now.

                    • Slim

                      Slim says:
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                      @A Hill O’ Beans: OK. But that “value” is based off a formula that I don’t necessarily believe in. Like saying Korver was the 35th best player last year, better than Hayward at 38. To me that’s just utter nonsense. Danny Green at 23 was better than Wall at 27. Does that mean Danny Green is worth a 2nd round pick and Wall isn’t? I scoff at that! Do we draft George Hill in the 3rd (32) and Dragic in 6th (62)? Are we taking Tyson Chandler in the same round (4) as Favors? Finishing “ranks” based off metrics play absolutely no role in my decision on where people should be drafted. Where people get drafted isn’t something that can be determined by “value” based off a formula. There are just way too many variables that aren’t considered.

                      When I say “Paul George isn’t a 1st rounder” I am never referring to an end of season formulaic rank. I am referring to start of season draft position. For instance in 13-14 George finished ahead of Wall and Cousins, but to me that doesn’t make him a 1st rounder and those 2 not the following year.

              • Adam

                Adam says:
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                @A Hill O’ Beans: Very true, that’s why Ellis looks like a good option this year. However, if the pace means more touches and shots for George, then this dictates a rise in TOs with the extra handling and more of the same high-volume low percentages from the past.

                I think we all have him in the same place, so it’s all minor details. Basically comes down to him fixing those issues if he wants to become elite.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Adam: @A Hill O’ Beans: @Adam: OH NO DON’T BRING UP THE PAUL GEORGE IS ELITE OR NOT DEBATE!

                  (I might lost all the readers from late 2013 for that…)

  7. Ralph Nader says:
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    did i miss Myles Turner, doesn’t he play the 4 ? Are you trying to play a jedi mind trick on the rest of fantasy world? These are not the sleepers you are looking for.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Ralph Nader: Hah, now that you mention it, maybe I should try to hide sleepers more often 🙂

      Nope, Yahoo has him C only. Rookies only get one position, it’s very likely Turner picks up PF elig. early in the season.

      • Slim

        Slim says:
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        @JB Gilpin: I’m gonna go ahead and disagree with Turner getting PF eligibility. I think he would basically have to start there for Yahoo to do it. I think if he starts next to Mahinmi then he would get it. I think Hill would be considered a PF and obviously Lavoy Allen is a PF too. If George starts at PF then Turner wont get PF irregardless of who he plays next to. I think we should plan on him being center only. Like Nurkic and Steven Adams, even Gobert plays next to a big that could be considered a PF or C and he still only gets center. I get that he shoots 3s but I don’t think that means he’s inherently a PF. Oh and it doesn’t have to make any sense either… Olynyk is center only which I disagree with.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Slim: Oh yeah I don’t know the minutia of how they give positions during the season. I thought it was based on minutes not starts, but I’d have to look it up again.

  8. Crusty says:
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    With these settings what players do you think I should target in my upcoming draft? Thank you very much for your time.

    Pg Sg G G Sf Pf F F C Util Util B B B – 14 man roster

    Category, value
    FGA, -.75
    FGM, 1
    FTA, -.5
    FTM, .75
    3PTM, 2
    PTS, .5
    REB, 1.5
    AST, 2.5
    BLK, 3
    TO, -2
    PF, -1
    EJCT, -5

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Crusty: Wow, ejections is a scoring cat??!?! No scoring for steals? If so, the -2 for TO makes PG way way less valuable. Especially with FG% a cat like that, guards are less valuable. I would draft soooooo many big men. Might avoid Cousins for the ejections 🙂

      • Crusty says:
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        @JB Gilpin:
        sorry ast 2 and steals 2.5 thanks for the reply any input is appreciated. i had vuc last year and he was fun, especially early on.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Crusty: No worries! Yeah so PG then would be OK, but yeah the high-volume good FG% guys are gonna be dynamite. I think Wiggins would be fantastic. Horford seems like a great pick, given low TO rate

  9. Eric says:
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    I could have just missed it in the fray of the excellent information you guys are constantly throwing out, but do you guys have any dynasty related rankings or information? I think it would be awesome for even a primer of sorts highlighting the top guys, rankings, and some late cheap guys to acquire for the future. You guys are the best

  10. I'm Harden for your love says:
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    I have P-13 & Wiggins as my keepers and I have the first overall pick in this years draft. With your talk about Paul Georges “DeAndre Jordaning” your fg% I’m struggling with who to select with my first pick, either AD or Curry. I feel like if I select A.Davis having P-13s negative fg% impact and the eventful poor shooting slumps Wiggins will have thought the year totally washes away any FG% advantage AD gives you.

    Unlike you I’m ok with punting and makes me wonder if Curry would then be a better fit on my team. If you were in my position and you had PG-13 and Wiggins already set on your team what would your game plan be to assembling a winning squad?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @I’m Harden for your love: Oh I’m fine with punting, I just strongly disagree that it’s something you HAVE to do, which many recommend.

      I’m still going to take AD though, I just like his upside a lot more than Curry’s. I actually don’t think Wiggins will hurt FG% all that much, and George will be rough at times, but not horrific. I used “DeAndre Jordan-ed” above just because he was so awful for a long stretch, I doubt he shoots 37% again over a long span.

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