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Bring the powah!  In one of the more shiftiest of positions in the NBA, we now embrace the stretch-4 as if small ball is the cure-all for everything in the NBA, and have thrown out the twin towers philosophy.  No more Monroe and Drummond and 800 pounds worth of NBA center clogging the paint!  The NBA is getting more versatile, and I think we’re seeing it more with all the ways a PF can help you in fantasy.  Dimes from LeBron, treys from like half of em, a lot of rainbow line threats…  It’s as variant as Johnny Depp’s characters in Tim Burton movies!  Oh wait, they’re all weird/bumbly/creepy, that’s completely wrong…  It’s as variant as nationalities in the NBA!  Love that FIBA had so many NBA players participating, so fun…  Anyway, the point is (if there ever was a point to this open), that PF can fit a lot of builds, and can band-aid some stats late, so it’s not a positional necessity.  I might have made up a completely new term there…  Here’s the top PF for the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball season:

The “Brow could bear my children” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
1 1 Anthony Davis, NO PF, C Fantasy’s unquestioned per-game titan, fantasy rightfully questions the durability.  He’s going to add in a few deep balls and Gentry wants him to have even more O touches.  Viva El Brow!
Slim’s Projection: .515/.810/0.2/26.0/10.5/2.4/1.4/3.0/1.6 :36

The “Former Fantasy MVPs” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
2 4 Kevin Durant, OKC SF, PF Upside for a return to fantasy’s top player, downside his foot issue hampers yet another season.  I’m obviously closer to the former, but he doesn’t get into the top-3.
Slim’s Projection: .500/.880/2.3/28.0/6.8/4.4/1.1/0.8/3.0 :34
3 5 LeBron James, CLE SF, PF A horrific start turning it over in Cleveland, LeBron also had a steep drop in FG%.  Both should imrpove, but he also has lost the blocks.  Solid #5.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.740/1.6/24.0/6.2/7.2/1.5/0.6/3.5 :36

The “Awesome multi-cat guys who you have to nab before Bledsoe and the PG plague” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
4 10 DeMarcus Cousins, SAC PF, C These last 3 are all razor thin, but Boogie takes a huge hit on your TO, and that’s without your team having a PG. That said, he was playing some of his best ball in the 2nd half last year. Now has Rondo to facilitate without stealing shots, along with Willie Cauley-Stein to take some defensive pressure off.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.770/0/25.0/12.5/3.2/1.5/1.7/4.0 :34
5 12 Paul Millsap, ATL PF, C Under appreciated for three seasons now, he should see another small step forward in the perimeter game with DeMarre Carroll out of town.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.755/1.2/18.0/8.0/3.2/1.8/1.0/2.3 :34
6 13 Draymond Green, GSW SF, PF Woooooo, #OccupyDraymondGreen!  Don’t worry about any sort of sharp regression, the multi-cat is here to stay!
Slim’s Projection: .455/.680/1.6/13.0/8.4/4.0/1.7/1.3/1.7 :34

The “Most of these guys are more traditional big men, except the huge risk that is Melo” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
7 17 Blake Griffin, LAC PF, C Nothing seems unrepeatable from last year, love the emerging dimes and improving FT stroke.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.740/0.3/22.5/7.9/5.3/1.0/0.5/2.3 :36
8 18 Serge Ibaka, OKC PF, C Blocks have fallen 4 straight years from 3.7 to 2.4, I don’t know how many treys he takes with Enes Kanter taking so many mid-range opportunities and Durant back. Swats should improve a tad, FG% certainly to go up from last year.
Slim’s Projection: .515/.810/0.7/15.0/8.0/0.9/0.5/2.7/1.5 :32
9 22 Carmelo Anthony, NYK SF, PF Only 30th in per-game last year, sure injuries factored in, but I don’t think there’s enough reliability here to draft him higher.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.820/1.7/23.0/6.4/3.2/0.9/0.4/2.4 :36
10 23 Andre Drummond, DET PF, C Obviously a full-blown punt-FT big, as we move through the ranks I’m treating each pick as a “best pick in a vacuum”.  Upside for monster post stats with no Monroe.
Slim’s Projection: .530/.380/0/16.0/13.5/1.2/0.9/2.0/1.6 :32
11 24 Al Horford, ATL PF, C Going to be very overlooked in 15-16, gives great value in high-volume FG% and microscopic TO that many drafters ignore for bigger counting stats.  MPG risk with some blowouts likely sink his value a tad.
Slim’s Projection: .540/.740/0.2/16.0/7.5/3.3/0.9/1.4/1.5 :32
12 25 Pau Gasol, CHI PF, C Of course he’s very unlikely to replicate 14-15, but he was 13th in per-game/7th in overall value.  This rank already builds in some regression, and he should have the minutes scaled down a tad with no Tibs to hopefully keep him healthy.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.780/0.1/17.0/9.8/2.8/0.3/1.5/1.9 :32
13 27 Nikola Vucevic, ORL PF, C Some look at his low steals and blocks for a big and dismiss him, but was 22nd in per-game last year due to high-volume FG% and a good FT% for a big,  Fits a lot of builds earlier than you would think.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.745/0/20.0/10.5/2.1/0.8/0.7/2.0 :34

The “Most variant range of guys within a tier of PF you’d love getting in the 4th/5th rounds” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
14 30 Rudy Gay, SAC SF, PF I imagine I’ll have several shares of Gay stock with this rank, as his inherent boring-ness is going to be overlooked. Career year in 14-15, big boost in AST, should see another boatload of O with Rondo not doing much shooting.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.825/1.1/19.5/5.6/3.1/1.1/0.7/2.2 :34
15 32 Chris Bosh, MIA PF, C A little risk as he comes off a major health scare, should score a ton of points and keep hitting treys to help his Stl+Blk going down.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.785/1.3/20.0/6.7/2.2/0.8/0.7/2.1 :34
16 35 LaMarcus Aldridge, SA PF, C Huge hit going to the Spurs – lower minutes, fewer shots, I don’t think we see an expanded 3PTM game…  I’m not risking any higher.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.835/0.4/18.5/9.2/2.1/0.7/1.0/1.5 :32
17 36 Derrick Favors, UTA PF, C FG% dropped after Kanter was dealt, will be playing a more mid-range game. Low FT% and blocks not developing into an elite stat keep him a little lower than Slim would like.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.690/0/17.0/8.4/1.5/0.9/1.8/1.8 :32
18 37 Kevin Love, CLE PF, C Shockingly was 33rd in per-game stats even though he was horrific, and FG%/Pts should rise a tad.  Injury risk/minutes limit early/the fact I don’t really want Love on any teams keep him this low.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.810/2.2/18.0/10.2/2.4/0.7/0.5/1.7 :34
19 39 Nerlens Noel, PHI PF, C From Jan 7 to the final 3 games – 42 game stretch of 11.8/9.0/1.7/2.0/2.3 at 49.7% FG.  If there was no Okafor clogging the paint, would be even higher.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.635/0/11.5/8.8/2.0/1.9/2.0/1.9 :32
20 42 Al Jefferson, CHA PF, C Fell down to 48th in per-game stats, but a lot had to do with missing 5 MPG with some easing in off injury mixed in there.  Still was able to maintain the blocks, and has a better playmaker in Batum on the wing.  Should have a nice bounce back, health concern keeps him from going higher
Slim’s Projection: .485/.680/0/17.5/8.6/1.7/0.7/1.3/1.2 :32

The “Hard to get overly excited for any of these guys except TJones as a sleeper” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
21 47 Greg Monroe, MIL PF, C Lack of blocks hurt, but has the whole post to himself for the first time in a while, and finally started making FT at 75% last year.  Should improve in FG% from last year as well.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.745/0/18.0/10.5/2.3/1.2/0.6/2.3 :34
22 50 Terrence Jones, HOU SF, PF 68th in per-game last year, starting only 24 of 33 games.  As a starter – 13.5/7.6/1.1/0.6/1.8 while shooting 55%, making 0.5 treys, and only 1.3 TO in 29 MPG. Only knock is FT%, but volume is low.  So much upside here.
Slim’s Projection: .515/.625/0.7/13.5/7.8/1.3/0.7/1.7/1.4 :30
23 54 Tobias Harris, ORL SF, PF True multi-cat contributor, maybe his best asset is the easy-to-find points, but hits all cats with low TO.  Plays a ton of minutes as well.  Just has to keep the ankles taped up.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.800/1.3/17.0/6.2/1.6/1.0/0.6/1.5 :34
24 55 Chandler Parsons, DAL SF, PF Primed for a bigger role in the O, but he’s off arthroscopic knee surgery and has had lingering back issues.  Even at this high feels a little risky, but there’s enough upside…
Slim’s Projection: .470/.735/2.1/16.5/5.3/3.4/1.2/0.4/1.9 :36
25 56 Kenneth Faried, DEN PF, C New regime seems to like him, improved the steals and blocks over the second half, and I think we finally see a high MPG for the Manimal.  Manimal unleashed!
Slim’s Projection: .500/.705/0/15.0/9.7/1.2/1.2/1.1/1.9 :30

The “Swiss Army knives of PF fitting all sorts of different builds harkening to the intro” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
26 64 DeMarre Carroll, TOR SF, PF Limited upside over last year for a few more shots and a few more treys, steals and blocks from the wing should translate.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.730/1.9/13.5/5.9/1.8/1.5/0.3/1.2 :34
27 67 Tim Duncan, SA PF, C The falling off a cliff hasn’t happened yet, even though everyone has predicted it the past 5 years.  21st in per-game last year, Aldridge and missed games drop him to this point.  I could actually see feeling pretty good lucking into him by the 6th.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.735/0/12.5/8.9/2.8/0.6/1.7/1.5 :28
28 68 Dirk Nowitzki, DAL PF, C Dirk probably has a little better upside than Timmay, but much greater downside.  The Germinator took his first step off that cliff, with career-lows virtually across the board when you throw out his rookie season.  Played under 30 MPG last year for the first time since his rookie season as well.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.880/1.2/17.0/5.7/1.8/0.5/0.4/1.1 :28
29 73 Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL SF, PF Athleticism and highlight-real Inspector Gadget plays seem to make him a tad overrated; treys didn’t develop last year, sub-2 STL+BLK, and 2.1 TO from a wing without doing much else isn’t worth a higher pick to me.  If he didn’t have any upside as a 20-year-old, he’d be even lower.  Upside is already baked in the baklava.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.755/0.3/13.5/6.6/2.9/1.1/1.2/2.1 :32
30 79 Gorgui Dieng, MIN PF, C As a starter – 10.8/8.8/2.3/1.1/2.0 hitting 50.8% from the field and 78.1% from the line last year.  But like Towns, the stable of big men is a huge concern, and he only played 28:43 MPG pre-ASB last year.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.770/0/10.0/8.3/2.1/0.9/1.7/1.7 :28
31 82 Markieff Morris, PHX? PF, C I had him 62 in the initial rankings post, internal strife with the Suns is really making him a scary pick, especially with a limited number of teams he could go to and produce a similar stat line to 14-15.  DOWN – Still no resolution here, with him still a whiny baby.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.770/0.8/16.0/6.3/2.5/1.2/0.5/2.1 :32
32 87 Thaddeus Young, BKN SF, PF Tough season for the Impaler in 14-15, and it looks like the treys are mostly gone and his FT% became catastrophic.  Come for the out-of-position steals, stay for the nickname.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.665/0.5/14.0/6.1/1.7/1.4/0.3/1.5 :30

The “Older boring rustier and shiny new unknown versions of said Swiss Army knives” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
33 94 Joakim Noah, CHI PF, C Rumors swirling he could be coming off the bench, and is off career-lows in both FG% and FT%.  But even with Rose back a good chunk of last year, kept the dimes up.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.690/0/9.5/9.8/4.4/0.8/1.2/1.8 :30
34 97 Nikola Mirotic, CHI SF, PF In an uncrowded rotation and a guaranteed 30+ MPG, he’d approach the 50s.  Per-36s 18.1/8.8/2.1/1.2/1.2 with 2.2 treys and only 1.9 TO in his rookie season, and even though he makes a great fit at the 4 next to aging centers, I don’t think you can approach him valued too much higher, although it’s very likely somone in your draft will reach to try to look like the smartest person in the room.  Bulls 5-game finals week gives him a bump, since it’d be easy to see one of Noah/Gasol hurt at that point.
Slim’s Projection: .410/.810/1.5/14.5/6.6/1.4/0.7/0.8/1.9 :28
35 99 Zach Randolph, MEM PF, C Boring, but 1.0 STL was his highest since 09-10 and 48.7 FG% highest since 10-11.  Those aren’t reasons to project upside, but indicate he’s not going to incrementally deteriorate trying to be the same exact player.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.765/0/16.0/10.1/2.0/0.8/0.2/2.2 :32
36 102 Aaron Gordon, ORL PF Summer Ball ultimate small-sample 3 games of 21.7/11.7/2.7/1.3/1.7 and hit 6-12 treys.  FT% is a concern, but upside for some great D-stats and a trey or two.  Off jaw surgery, he may have to start with a mask which hopefully doesn’t impact his game.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.580/0.8/11.5/7.5/1.5/0.9/0.9/1.6 :28
37 105 Patrick Patterson, TOR PF, C How the Raptors play their big men has been a big topic of discussion in the comments, and while I don’t see PIt-Pat playing huge minutes, I think he gets to 28-29 after 26:20 last year, and he finished top-100 in 9-cat metrics.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.760/1.3/9.0/5.8/2.1/0.8/0.5/0.8 :28
38 109 Ersan Ilyasova, DET SF, PF Out of position treys is nice, but I’m not overpaying for pedestrian boards and defensive stats.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.775/1.3/13.5/5.9/1.3/0.7/0.5/1.1 :30

The “Last rounds/last pick flier” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
39 119 Jabari Parker, MIL SF, PF The Bucks are making it sound like they’re going to be EXTREMELY cautious with bringing Jabari along from the torn ACL, and I don’t really blame em.  Worth a gamble especially in IL leagues – with only 2-3 bench spots and no IL, he’ll be a tough hold early on.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.730/0.3/11.5/5.4/1.8/0.9/0.3/1.8 :26
40 121 Ed Davis, POR PF, C He seems to be becoming the unpopular big in the Blazers’ mystery rotation, but over his last 54 games – most of last year after getting really inconsistent run early – 9.1/7.9/1.4/0.6/1.3 with virtually no TO and 60% from the field in only 23.7 MPG.  Will likely play more minutes in Portland, and scaling those numbers up will be really interesting.
Slim’s Projection: .565/.560/0/11.0/7.8/1.4/0.6/1.3/1.0 :28
41 122 Luol Deng, MIA SF, PF A full roster should help Deng be a boring last-roster-spot guy, as the battered up Heat saw Deng have a FG% drop in the second half.
Slim’s Projection: .460/.770/1.0/13.5/5.0/1.8/0.8/0.2/1.5 :32
42 123 Ryan Anderson, NO PF, C Injuries have taken their toll, but he can light up a ton of treys out-of-position and nab a couple boards.  If we knew he’d be healthy all year, he’d probably be in the top 100.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.860/2.2/14.0/4.9/1.0/0.5/0.3/1.0 :28
43 124 John Henson, MIL PF, C 2.0 blocks in only 18:20 MPG last year was crazy talk, and should easily play more this season especially with Jabari coming back slow – there aren’t any other PF options.
Slim’s Projection: .555/.575/0/9.5/6.6/1.3/0.5/2.0/1.6 :24
44 128 Mason Plumlee, POR PF, C Super-buzzy last year after making team USA and given a role, he nosedived horrifically…  And now he has an even bigger shot!  FT% issues and foul-trouble are still a concern, as is overall consistency.
Slim’s Projection: .610/.535/0/11.5/7.7/1.0/0.9/1.0/1.8 :26
45 132 Jordan Hill, IND PF, C Should be able to replicate what he did last year – minus a couple of points – in what was a useful season at times.  Not “speeding” to get him though!
Slim’s Projection: .475/.720/0/11.0/7.5/1.3/0.4/0.8/1.4 :24
46 138 Dwight Howard, HOU PF, C I’ve utterly ignored him for years now, and nothing changes this season. Off several injuries and a disappearance of blocks.
Slim’s Projection: .580/.535/0/15.5/10.2/1.2/0.7/1.4/2.8 :30
47 141 Omer Asik, NO PF, C Should give you another season of 25-26 minutes, 8/10 with almost a block.  Meh.
Slim’s Projection: .525/.595/0/7.5/10.0/0.8/0.4/0.7/1.3 :26
48 142 Marcus Morris, DET SF, PF Might be a better pick than StanJo in a deeper league, I think he’s the starter at SF out of the gate, then swings to some backup PF. Career-bests in Pts/Reb while tying his career mark in treys in 14-15.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.690/1.5/11.5/5.8/2.1/0.9/0.3/1.0 :30
49 143 Kyle O’Quinn, NYK PF, C He could find himself starting some games at the 4, but either way should pick up solid backup PF/C minutes as they ease Porzingis in.  Expanded 3PT game and a nice FT% has him a very solid per-36 player.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.740/0.4/7.5/4.4/1.6/0.7/1.1/1.1 :20

The “Undraftable in a 12er” Tier:

PF RANK TOTAL RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NOTE
50 148 David West, SA PF I think he gets more run than some (although Slim’s Proj looks right on), as he cleans up with the second unit.  Actually, Slim’s line would make him rank a bit higher than this rank.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.770/0/10.5/6.2/2.8/0.5/0.5/1.4 :26
51 150 Kristaps Porzingis, NYK PF Love Porzingis’s career upside, hate that Phil J has said repeatedly they’ll bring him along slow.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.750/0.9/10.0/4.1/0.9/0.6/0.9/1.5 :22
52 156 Kosta Koufos, SAC PF, C Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he’s a favorite of George Karl and should see 25+ minutes.  Will get plenty of boards and 1.5 blocks in that kind of run (Slim seems to sell the swats a tad short in his proj).
Slim’s Projection: .505/.650/0/8.5/7.8/0.7/0.5/1.2/1.2 :26
53 157 Jae Crowder, BOS SF, PF Boston Clam Crowder got to the Celtics and started with a bang, but ended up pretty ho-hum.  Can give you nice D stats, but Boston’s slim rotations will hurt.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.770/1.1/11.0/5.6/1.6/1.1/0.4/0.9 :28
54 158 Jared Sullinger, BOS PF, C Slim rotations hurt Sully too, even if he has a slim tummy.  Everyone loves a good weight loss, but I don’t see the minutes Slim does.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.760/0.9/14.0/8.0/2.3/0.8/0.7/1.4 :28
55 159 Dwight Powell, DAL PF A swing-for-the-fences pick, Powell took a bajillion treys in summer ball and looked great for Team Canada. They’re grooming him to be the next Dirk, and he figures to get a lot of rock when playing backup PF/C.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.750/0.7/9.0/5.5/0.9/0.8/0.6/1.1 :24
56 160 James Johnson, TOR SF, PF A nightly rainbow line threat even off the bench, we’re still going in with another undefined role.  Nice D stat streamer late in weeks.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.710/0.3/9.5/4.2/1.9/0.9/1.1/1.3 :24
57 161 Julius Randle, LAL PF On the outside looking in for a 12 team roster, but sounds like he’ll start.  Limits in FT%, blocks, and TO make him tough to project for big upside.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.675/0/13.5/6.8/1.4/0.6/0.4/2.2 :28
58 164 Clint Capela, HOU PF, C Any backup to Dwight is worth owning as a handcuff (deja vu!), and should play either way off the pine.  Even as a reserve, should get big swats.
Slim’s Projection: .575/.600/0/7.5/6.8/0.6/0.6/1.4/1.0 :20
59 170 Amir Johnson, BOS PF, C Awful rotation and B-Rad runs his bigs thin.  I’ll pass in 12ers.
Slim’s Projection: .565/.645/0.2/10.0/6.8/1.6/0.6/0.9/1.6 :28
60 175 Tristan Thompson, CLE? PF, C Contract isn’t quite settled, but his unusability in 12ers is.  Maybe a sign-and-trade with Phoenix!
Slim’s Projection: .495/.650/0/8.5/7.4/0.3/0.4/0.6/1.0 :26
61 177 Donatas Motiejunas, HOU SF, PF He’ll move up a couple if he looks really healthy in pre-season, I worry about the back and don’t think he plays starting C if Dwight gets hurt – I see that for Capela.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.620/0.6/10.0/5.1/1.6/0.6/0.4/1.5 :24
62 181 Meyers Leonard, POR PF, C Seems to be a popular sleeper candidate, his lack of blocks really hurt.  Nice for the out-of-position treys and boards, but I think his upside is capped by no AST/STL/BLK.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.825/1.3/10.5/7.4/1.0/0.3/0.4/1.1 :26
63 184 Nemanja Bjelica, MIN PF Played unreal ball in EuroBasket – expected to contribute right away, but is in a crowded mix of wings and bigs.
Slim’s Projection: .460/.745/0.9/8.5/5.8/1.6/0.6/0.3/0.8 :22
64 195 Josh Smith, LAC SF, PF Take his almost unusable %s and TO and then give him less minutes.  That’s how to tank a fantasy value, folks!
Slim’s Projection: .420/.545/0.6/11.5/5.7/2.5/0.8/1.6/2.1 :24
65 198 Noah Vonleh, POR PF Second half could be very interesting for the stretch 4, but it looks like it’ll be a good ways out until they unleash the youngun.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.745/0.9/10.5/6.1/0.4/0.4/0.6/1.4 :24