We looked at the top 20 point guards for 2010 last week and decided that injuries wreaked havoc on most fantasy teams. Today, we decide that the shooting guard position is even weaker than I predicted in the preseason. Yes we will learn that. Yes. Don’t argue with me. That is exactly what we’re going to learn. That, and that maybe next season either reach for a premium two-guard or punt it until later rounds. Here’s my preseason Top 20 Shooting Guards for 2010. Take it in with a fine wine. Also, to recap, we’re using the season totals from ESPN’s Player Rater to determine each guy’s final rank. We’re listing averages, but we took totals into account because Games Played weighs heavily on his value – natch. Anyway, here’s the top 20 shooting guards for 2010 fantasy basketball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Dwyane Wade – He is what he is and he do what he do, I just wasn’t sure he’d be able to do it at the same level alongside James and Bosh. He could and did. There just aren’t any surprises with this guy … except maybe that the “a” comes after the “y” in his name. That’s pretty surprising. Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections: .490/.770/0.5 3pt/23 pts/5 rbd/5 ast/2 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov, Final Numbers: .500/.758/0.8 3ptm/25.5 pts/6.4 rbd/4.6 ast/1.5 stl/1.1 blk/3.1 tov, 76 games
2. Monta Ellis – He averaged one more three each game than I thought he would and averaged 3.1 points more than I thought he would. Coincidence? Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections: .458/.770/0.5 3pt/21 pts/4.5 rbd/5 ast/2 stl/0 blk/3 tov, Final Numbers: .451/.789/1.7 3ptm/24.1 pts/3.5 rbd/5.6 ast/2.1 stl/0.3 blk/3.2 tov, 80 games
3. Kobe Bryant – I had low expectations (relatively speaking) for Bryant and he fell just below those expectations. Last year was the beginning of Mamba’s long slow decline. This year was a continuation of it. And while logic tells me next year will be slightly worse than this year, I also anticipate seeing a resurgence for one season sometime in the next four years. So there’s that. Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections: .453/.839/1.5 3ptm/26 pts/5.5 rbd/5.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/3.5 tov, Final Numbers: .451/.828/1.4 3ptm/25.3 pts/5.1 rbd/4.7 ast/1.2 stl/0.1 blk/3 tov, 82 games
4. Manu Ginobili – Turns out Manu’s health wasn’t a factor at all. Or it was a total factor. I guess it depends on whether you owned him or not. I’m still gonna sell high on him next season. Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections: .444/.865/2 3pt/15.5 pts/4.5 rbd/4.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov, Final Numbers: .433/.871/1.9 3ptm/17.4 pts/3.7 rbd/4.9 ast/1.5 stl/0.4 blk/2.2 tov, 80 games
5. Kevin Martin – The guards I expected to miss 15 games didn’t and the ones I assume wouldn’t, did. Martin was an unsung hero of many teams’ FT% this season. He also silently creamed your FG%. I owned Speed Racer on two teams and never felt like I owned a top 5 SG. Not once. That says just as much about shooting guards 6-30 as it does about Martin. Preseason Rank #9, Final Numbers: .436/.888/2.2 3ptm/23.5 pts/3.2 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.2 blk/2.3 tov, 80 games
6. Ray Allen – I can see Allen averaging at least 12/2/2, with a pair of threes until he’s 40. Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections: .465/.920/2 3pt/15 pts/3.5 rbd/3.5 ast/0.5 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov, Final Numbers: .491/.881/2.1 3ptm/16.5 pts/3.4 rbd/2.7 ast/1 stl/0.2 blk/1.5 tov, 80 games
7. Wesley Matthews – You picked him up in late November, he carried you through the All-Star break then kinda fizzled. Assume the playing time Brandon Roy lost cancels out the minutes Gerald Wallace’s arrival cost Matthews and assume he makes slight improvements to his shot next season. I assume he’ll be ranked right around him this time next year. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: .449/.844/1.9 3ptm/15.9 pts/3.1 rbd/2 ast/1.2 stl/0.1 blk/1.7 tov, 82 games
8. Jason Terry – I ranked JET 20th on this list in the preseason. I was also pretty durn close with my predictions. So yeah, the shooting guard category is more shallow than all three Kardashian sisters. Preseason Rank #20, 2010 Projections: .449/.860/1.5 3pt/14.5 pts/2 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1 tov, Final Numbers: .451/.850/1.5 3ptm/15.8 pts/1.9 rbd/4.1 ast/1.1 stl/0.2 blk/2.0 tov, 82 games
9. Jason Richardson – The difference between Phoenix Richardson and Orlando Richardson is the difference between where I ranked him in 2010 (high) and where I’ll rank him in 2011 (low). Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections: .444/.715/2.5 3pt/23 pts/5.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov, Final Numbers: .447/.730/2.4 3ptm/15.6 pts/4.1 rbd/1.8 ast/1.2 stl/0.2 blk/1.2 tov, 80 games
10. James Harden – I was big on George Hill and Rodrigue Beaubois coming into this season. Harden will serve that purpose for me next season. That means you’ll probably want to draft him two rounds later than I tell you to. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: .436/.843/1.4 3ptm/12.2 pts/3.1 rbd/2.1 ast/1.1 stl/0.3 blk/1.3 tov, 82 games
11. Landry Fields – The season went something like this: 1) I don’t know who this Fields dude is, but he’s starting so give him a look, 2) Fields is surprisingly effective, grab him now, 3) Well, maybe not quite as effective as I thought, but could be a huge keeper, 4) I haven’t thought about Landry Fields in three months. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: .497/.769/1 3ptm/9.7 pts/6.4 rbd/1.9 ast/1 stl/0.2 blk/1.3 tov, 82 games
12. Eric Gordon – What’s the significance of 78-62-56? No, it’s not the measurements Tyler Perry in the Madea makeup. It’s the number of games Gordon has played in each of his first three seasons in the league. His improvement was big enough this season while he was on the court that I’m willing to risk a high draft pick on him next season, but if he misses more than six games next season, I’m not touching him. Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections: .450/.800/2 3pt/19 pts/2.5 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov, Final Numbers: .450/.825/1.9 3ptm/22.3 pts/2.9 rbd/4.4 ast/1.3 stl/0.3 blk/2.7 tov, 56 games
13. Stephen Jackson – Cap’n Jack has a clause in his contract stipulating that if he doesn’t average 36+ mpgs he gets to skip 15 games like they were floating holidays. Frankly, it’s a pretty sweet clause. Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections: .419/.800/1.5 3pt/22 pts/5 rbd/4.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/3 tov, Final Numbers: .411/.816/1.8 3ptm/18.5 pts/4.5 rbd/3.6 ast/1.2 stl/0.4 blk/3.1 tov, 67 games
14. DeMar DeRozan – I know Bargnani is considered Toronto’s leader, but I’m predicting DeRozan pulls even with Bargnani next season and is handed the keys to the kingdom in Toronto in 2012. But this is the Raptors we’re talking about so let’s hope DeDer doesn’t confuse the kingdom with the King Dome. Shizz was demolished years ago and he’ll have no idea what to do with King Dome keys. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: .467/.813/0.1 3ptm/17.2 pts/3.8 rbd/1.8 ast/1 stl/0.4 blk/1.8 tov, 82 games
15. Arron Afflalo – Please don’t make me say anything about Afflalo. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: .498/.847/1.5 3ptm/12.6 pts/3.6 rbd/2.4 ast/0.5 stl/0.4 blk/1 tov, 69 games
16. Joe Johnson – Here’s what I said about Joe Johnson at the end of last season, “I wanted better things for Johnson this year … Instead I got a digression in every stat except field-goal percentage, rebounds and turnovers.” He regressed in every stat from last season to this one. The Elite Joe Johnson Era is officially over. Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections: .440/.810/1.5 3pt/22 pts/4.5 rbd/4.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov, Final Numbers: .443/.802/1.2 3ptm/18.2 pts/4 rbd/4.7 ast/0.7 stl/0.1 blk/2 tov, 72 games
17. Jared Dudley – Just don’t get hurt and *poof* you’re an elite shooting guard. Woof. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: .477/.743/1.3 3ptm/10.6 pts/3.9 rbd/1.3 ast/1.1 stl/0.2 blk/0.9 tov, 82 games
18. J.R. Smith – The problem with Smith is he only made this list because he had about seven huge games. Chances are, if you owned him, he was on your bench for those huge games, which only made you angry. So really, even when you win with Earl, you still lose. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: .435/.738/1.6 3ptm/12.3 pts/4.1 rbd/2.2 ast/1.2 stl/0.2 blk/1.3 tov, 79 games
19. Toney Douglas – Combine Douglas’ year-end stats with Fields and … you would still rather own Monta Ellis. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: .416/.794/1.8 3ptm/10.6 pts/3 rbd/3 ast/1.1 stl/0 blk/1.1 tov, 81 games
20. John Salmons – He didn’t end far from last year’s stats or this year’s predictions and yet you could have had Douglas or Dudley or Afflalo five rounds later. Next season, if you don’t get one of the six best SGs, punt the position and load up on shooting guards late in the draft. Preseason Rank #19, 2010 Projections: .460/.815/1 3pt/16 pts/3 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov, Final Numbers: .415/.813/1.1 3ptm/14 pts/3.6 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0.4 blk/1.9 tov, 73 games
