Don’t take Anthony Davis in the top 5. He’ll miss at least 25 games. Avoid Old Man LeBron James, because he rests all the time. Tyreke Evans has only played 65 games in the last two years combined. Not even worth drafting.

A few of the prevailing opinions going into the season that I thought had gotten a bit overblown. The risk of missing games is scary, but it’s not often very predictable. And yes, I’m cherry picking examples, but AD has played 54 of the first 60 games and is #4 on the ESPN Player Rater (#3 per game). LeBron hasn’t sat one game yet, is among the league leaders in minutes per game again, and is #1 (#5 per game). Tyreke  has played 49 of 59 games, sitting five of those when the team was holding him out before the trade deadline. He’s #58 (#44 per game). And sure, that’s partly due to Mike Conley missing almost the whole season. Yes, there are examples of injury fears being once again substantiated, like in the case of Danilo Gallinari. It’s all guesswork. It’s part of the fun, predicting what a season will bring. But, figuring out the puzzle can drive you mad.

Today, I thought we’d have a little fun revisiting some preseason predictions. Maybe we can learn a bit about what types of projections are more trustworthy than others. Maybe not. I also don’t think this would be a great way to figure out who’s great at predicting things like sleepers and breakouts, because this is a small sample size. Continue to look at the methodology behind the predictions to see if it’s backed up by reason. I just figured that we rarely actually go back to see what was right and what was way off. If it teaches us something for next preseason, great.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

We start the New Year off with disappointing news about one of the NBA’s and fantasy’s best players. The Cavs announced on New Year’s Day that LeBron James would miss the next two weeks with knee and back strains, an absence that could reach as many at 10 games. The Cavs are hopeful that the two weeks of treatment, which will include anti-inflammatories, will help get James back to 100% and prevent further injury. James has been a durable player his whole career, never missing more than five straight games so the news is definitely rare.

You’re not going to find a replacement for James off waivers and will just have to wait out the two weeks until your star player is hopefully healthy and back in the lineup. For the Cavs, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love will see upticks in fantasy value, as they are asked to carry more of the offensive load.

Love missed Wednesday’s game against the Bucks with back spasms, but is expected to return to the lineup on Friday against the Hornets. This could be a monster game for Love and Irving, as the Hornets won’t have Al Jefferson or Lance Stephenson (more on them later).

Please, blog, may I have some more?