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The end of each year is now deemed “Silly Season,” when resting vets on contenders and breakout youngsters on tanking teams play havoc with lineup decisions.  Three weeks into the season, I now declare this time of the year “Wacky Season,” with Wednesday night a perfect example. There are players who started injured coming back, […]

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The Bergens are coming, AHHH. The Bergens are coming, AHHH. The Bergens are coming, AHHH. The Bergens are coming, AHHH. 

For those without kids, that’s Branch in “Trolls” overreacting because he’s scared of success (and friendship), just like so many fantasy basketball players will overreact to the first couple games, when regular bench rotations guys will be proclaimed breakouts of the season, and busts will be said to abound as the rust gets knocked off the boots. 

However, while we definitely don’t want to overreact, let’s remember: Branch ended up being right. You don’t want to be caught with that average penny stock and telling yourself, “any day now, it’s gunna go crazy!” [Checks portfolio, sighs with depression, gets back to basketball.] Keep an eye on minutes, rotations and usage more than the general stat lines in these early going. 

And with that piece of nonsensical advice, let’s get on with the show! Here’s what caught my eye in the 12 games of the unofficial official opening night in The Association.

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Drafting rookies in fantasy basketball can be a lot like the fishing game at carnivals. The unknown of what’s going to happen is kinda fun and whimsical, you know you’re going to walk away with some sort of “prize,” but whatever rinky-dink toy or stuffed animal you get probably will depreciate in your mind faster than a new car off the lot. 

Long before I was the expert Razzball analyst you’re reading now [“psshh above-average amateur at best”; “Shut up voice in my head, too early for you!”] I never trusted rookies much. The more I read, it was nice to learn this was the correct take to have in this realm. 

Rookies traditionally underwhelm because they’re, well, rookies [DUH!]. They struggle with efficiency, which doubles in leagues counting turnovers, and lack the experience and game knowledge at the NBA pace that leads to an extra rebound here or assist there, or what have you that creates a reliable fantasy asset. 

Last season was a classic example. There was a Rookie of the Year in Paolo Banchero putting up headline-earning stats, yet finished ranked 211 per game in 9-cat. There were studs who started hot and heavy like Benedict Mathurin but never improved on average-to-weak counting stats. Per usual, the big guys fared the best, with a fun breakout campaign by Walker Kessler (57) and some usable players at the end of the season in guys like Mark Williams (128), Jalen Duren (135)  and Jabari Smith Jr. (144) – sniffing a double-double with a block can go a long way for guys on rebuilding teams. And then we had the surprise breakout of an older, more seasoned rookie in Jalen Williams, who finished ranked 73 in 9-cat, and was a top 20 player in the last two months of the season.

As the headline attempts to wittingly suggest, no matter how good the rookie, the general rule is to expect inconsistent fantasy production day-in and day-out. There will be some exciting bit lines and inevitable mistake-laden stinkers.

So let’s take a look at some of the class of 2023-24, as I’ve compiled a list of sure-fire analysis of steady that I’m 100% certain of….

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Most things in life have an ebb and flow to them. Some have steady drumbeats while others are volatile like an illiquid capital market. In order to get to the top of any venture, there is usually a combination of both. At some point, there are breakthroughs and jumps of multiple levels. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was selected by the Clippers with the 11th overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. He averaged 26.5 minutes per game as a rookie and showed that he belonged, putting up 10.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks while shooting 47% from the field and 80% from the line. He was the 141st player for fantasy on a per-game basis. He was then traded to the Thunder in the Paul George deal and immediately played 34.7 minutes per contest. He finished as the 53rd player for fantasy, the first significant jump in his career. He improved in each of the next two seasons, but at a pace akin to the sink filling up, drip by drip, finishing 44th then 32nd. Then 2022 happened, and Shai rocketed up to where he is now, as a top 5 player. Yesterday, he continued to show that he is now one of the best and most well-rounded players in the NBA:

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Razzball Nation, welcome to the fourth quarter of the NBA season. Most of you playing in points leagues are in your fantasy playoffs with hopes of being crowned champion in the next few weeks. For those of you in rotisserie formats, you are here until the bitter end, which will surely include some silly season heroics, and I will be with you for all of it.

Trade deadlines have come and gone for a vast majority of leagues, which left me contemplating how to pivot this post for the final stretch of the season. The answer is and always will be in finding value and making that value work best for you. That is why this week, I am looking at an entire team and leaving it up to you to roll the dice on a few options that may be readily available on your wire or perhaps sitting on your bench in deeper leagues waiting to be deployed.

Get your motor running…?

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