I’ve had a lot of success in my regular home leagues. This success has not followed me into my first foray in a higher-level league. Like, wow. This is so bad, 10th out of 12 in my group. I’m embarrassed and going to publicly figure out who I took, why I did it, and why I was clearly an idiot to do so.
In the process, I’m going to be highlighting some of the bigger disappointments this year and highlighting guys who have elevated to their level…
Round 1: Damion Lillard
| Season | Age | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | GS | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | eFG% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 32 | POR | NBA | PG | 58 | 58 | 36.3 | 9.6 | 20.7 | .463 | 4.2 | 11.3 | .371 | 5.4 | 9.4 | .574 | .564 | 8.8 | 9.6 | .914 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 32.2 |
| 2023-24 | 33 | MIL | NBA | PG | 18 | 18 | 35.0 | 7.3 | 17.1 | .429 | 2.8 | 8.4 | .336 | 4.5 | 8.7 | .519 | .511 | 8.0 | 8.7 | .923 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 25. |
Fallacy: I took him because he was going to bust out on a new team.
Reality: Don’t take guys over 30 in the first round.
Who I should have taken: Anthony Edwards
I didn’t really want to write this, but I thought it would be fun to own Lillard. So dumb. Well, not particularly dumb, but short sighted. If you look at the above table, Lillard is lower in like all the categories. He’s shooting worse, making fewer threes on a lower percentage, getting to the line less, rebounding slightly less, lower assists, and less turnovers. Fine, fine, fine, the turnovers are a good thing. He’s 33 and I don’t know why I expected similar numbers on a better team with a better player next to him. Terrible first round pick.
Round 2: Jaren Jackson, Jr.
Fallacy: Thinking his numbers would bump up without Ja Morant, chasing elite shot blocking
Reality: He is what he is except for the blocks have cratered
Who I should have taken: Bam Adebayo
JJJ points, rebounds, and assists have not meaningfully changed since last year. This is all great because he’s an elite shot blocker, right? Alas, he’s down to only 1.8 blocks per season, good enough for tenth in the league. Tenth is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s not worth getting a hit in rebounds from your center like this if the blocks aren’t at or near the top. (Walker Kessler is another example of this to my eye) I should have found a more all around contributor for the second round pick. And to add injury to injury, but not a literal injury, his shooting is down to 42%. Darn bigs are supposed to help, not hurt that percentage in 16 shots per game.
| BLOCKS | BLK |
|---|---|
| 2.8 | |
| 2.8 | |
| 2.7 | |
| 2.5 | |
| 2.4 | |
Do you guys notice the complete lack of Jaren Jackson Jr. in here?
Bam was available and I whiffed on this pick completely.
Fourth Round: Zach LaVine
Fallacy: Buying into end of season narrative
Reality: He’s injured again and a low effort player who wants to be traded
Who I Should Have Taken: Anyone. It’s a miserable experience.
Oh, Zachary, you have been quite lackary. I had hopes and optimism about the guy. The thought was that he was finally healthy, coming off a good end of season stretch, and ready to rumble and hit that 50-40-90 number. Well, of course, he hasn’t been able to do that. Numbers in a 23 game sample don’t often translate, do they?
There’s really nothing much worse than drafting a guy with a bad attitude who you never know what kind of energy or effort they will play with. Adding on to this, you never know if LaVine is gonna suit up in a given game. I’ve never even been a LaVine guy; this seals it. I was right until I took him which now makes me wrong.
Round 5: Zion Williamson
Fallacy: He’s going to carry my FG% to ultimate victory
Reality: He’s going to tank my FT to ultimate defeate
At this point, I’m not going to talk about who I should have taken since there’s too many options to choose from. I also could be wrong on this one as Zion seems to be rounding into form (LOL). Maybe he can carry the stats like I had hoped.
Round 7: Markelle Fultz
Fallacy: He would play big minutes in a contract year
Reality: He is not playing big minutes in a contract year
Health is a skill that Markell doesn’t have.
The old adage is that you can’t win your league in the first rounds, but you can lose it. It seems to me that my first 5 picks killed me. I will finish out this year and strive for a sweet redemption tour in the future.
Here’s some breakout guys that I should have drafted.
Scottie Barnes: Number 1 rated overall, 19-9-6 with 2 steals and a block per game. I took him too early last year and overcorrected. I was right! Just early.
Alperen Sengun: Wow. 21-9-6 and I though the hype was going too far. Similar thoughts for Chet Holmgren.
My process needs to incorporate upside much more often, doesn’t it? That’s the hardest part in this silly game we all play. Oh well.
Until next time…..
