[Reposting to the top with Updating Rankings as of October 22nd!
This will be the final ranks we put out before the season starts, so cross your fingers these look good when we reflect on them at the end of the year!]
Here it is, folks! Below is our official Razzball Basketball top 200, which we’ll be updating through the preseason, listed with Yahoo position eligibility and accompanied by a small blurb for my reasonings. Which isn’t a word?! What if I have more than one reasoning!?
And as an extra step up from last year, Slim has included his projection for each player. All in this one, easy to use list! Slim and I see eye-to-eye on most things fantasy hoops, but he’ll of course have some differences of opinion. So if you see a Slim projection that looks variant from my rank, you’ll know why! And as always, we’re both always hitting up the comments and can [attempt to] explain our reasonings… There it is again! I want it plural, dammit! Here’s our one stop shop for our 2014-15 Fantasy Basketball Rankings:
2014-2015 Fantasy Basketball Rankings
(updated Oct. 22)
(rankings geared for H2H Leagues)
(stats by FT%/FG%/3PTM/PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO :MPG)
|1||Anthony Davis, NOP||PF, C||Durant injury puts the Brow to numero uno. Viva El Brow!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.510/.780/0.4/23.5/9.8/1.8/1.5/3.0/1.9 :38|
|↑ 2||Stephen Curry, GSW||PG, SG||Steady as she blows, big threes and big dimes, with a vault in the latter in 13-14. Kerr as the new coach shouldn’t change anything and Curry still has ThrAGNOF king Klay Thompson to camp for treys.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.465/.900/3.5/24.0/4.1/8.7/1.7/0.2/3.6 :38|
|↓ 3||Kevin Durant, OKC||SF, PF||The surgery actually makes me a little confident. I’m of course just out of medical school, but surgeries are more and more effective these days, and I think he’ll be back and at full strength mid-December. Ride the storm until then, make the playoffs, and you have fantasy’s best per-game player to win your league title.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.505/.880/2.2/31.0/7.6/5.0/1.3/0.8/3.5 :38|
|4||LeBron James, CLE||SF, PF||Disappearing blocks, regressing boards – especially with Love joining – and arguably the best supporting cast with the best PG he’s played with. Less rock for King!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.550/.750/1.3/25.0/6.4/5.9/1.6/0.4/3.2 :38|
|5||James Harden, HOU||SG, SF||Considering the unbelievable post-ASB slash of 27.7/4.7/7.4/1.9/0.3 shooting 47% from the field with three treys a game – and no Jeremy Lin – I see a new career-high in assists for an out-of-position option that should surpass Paul’s output. And you can’t discount the high-volume FT shooting that can win your weekly FTs.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.860/2.5/26.0/4.9/6.4/1.7/0.4/3.7 :38|
|6||Chris Paul, LAC||PG||Paul’s category-killing dimes are awesome, but Harden brings slightly more to the table. Including facial hair.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.460/.860/1.2/18.0/4.1/10.6/2.3/0.1/2.2 :36|
|7||Serge Ibaka, OKC||PF, C||Iblocka! Plus he should take another baby step forward in FG%, Pts, treys… There’s really nothing not to like.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.525/.770/0.6/17.0/9.3/1.2/0.5/3.0/1.5 :34|
|8||Russell Westbrook, OKC||PG||While he should be beastly, these ranks are still for 9-cat H2H, and his FG% and TO are going to be brutal while running the team. Very good chance he goes bonkers though. But remember, you’re drafting for the whole season, not the first month or two.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.820/1.4/23.0/5.2/7.2/1.8/0.2/3.8 :34|
|9||John Wall, WAS||PG||If Westbrook goes up, so must Wall! Still think these two are a coin flip, the missed time of Durant vaulting Westy.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.810/1.3/20.5/4.1/9.2/1.8/0.7/3.6 :38|
|10||DeMarcus Cousins, SAC||PF, C||There’s just something about his preseason giving me the Anthony Davis vibe from last year. I know it’s preseason and it’s not much of a sample, but edging him up a couple spots from my original rank.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.740/0/24.0/12.0/3.0/1.6/1.3/3.5 :34|
|11||Kevin Love, CLE||PF, C||Slim hath swooned me. I wanted Westbrook above Love (alliteration!) now, and still think he and Wall are a coin flip. Plus I’m woogie for Boogie. So had to move Love down.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.465/.820/2.3/21.0/11.2/2.6/0.7/0.4/2.1 :36|
|12||Carmelo Anthony, NYK||SF, PF||I don’t expect the career highs in boards and blocks to carry over to 14-15, but will be the same elite scorer for Phil J’s triangle.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.455/.830/2.2/27.0/6.8/3.5/1.0/0.5/2.6 :38|
|13||Paul Millsap, ATL||PF, C||A bit of a reach, but his best month of scoring/treys in 13-14 was with Horford on the court, and will continue to develop the perimeter game with Horford establishing the paint.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.465/.740/1.0/19.0/8.7/3.1/1.8/1.0/2.5 :36|
|↑ 14||Al Jefferson, CHA||PF, C||I just seem to trust him more with the clock against me in the early 2nd round. Had an unreal run in the second half of 13-14, going 25.2/11.4/2.3/1/1 from Jan. 14 to the end of the year.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.730/0/20.0/10.0/2.0/1.0/1.0/1.7 :34|
|15||Al Horford, ATL||PF, C||Was having a career season until the pec injury. Same argument as Millsap – another perimeter threat will help Horford down low.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.540/.720/0/18.0/8.9/3.0/1.0/1.3/2.2 :34|
|16||LaMarcus Aldridge, POR||PF, C||The FG% from a big is no fun, but a sneaky multi-cat contributor.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.455/.810/0/22.0/9.8/2.5/0.9/0.9/1.9 :36|
|17||Kawhi Leonard, SAS||SG, SF||The risk is only in usage both in role and minutes, but Pop had an encouraging quote citing he will be coaching Kawhi consistency to be in the upper echelon of players. But even his floor is a pretty nasty multi-cat game.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.810/1.4/15.0/6.8/2.2/1.9/0.8/1.5 :34|
|18||Dirk Nowitzki, DAL||PF, C||The age is the question, but I don’t see much of a fall off. That said, boards are trending down.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.475/.880/1.4/21.0/6.2/2.6/0.9/0.6/1.5 :34|
|19||Blake Griffin, LAC||PF, C||A breakout last year, I think he replicates his 13-14. But why in the name of Mutumbo can this guy not block more shots?!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.530/.720/0/24.0/9.4/4.0/1.2/0.6/2.7 :36|
|20||Damian Lillard, POR||PG||Opening the run on PGs, Lillard gives you elite 3s/FT%/consistency. Should be third straight season of solid-ness.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.870/2.8/22.0/3.5/6.5/1.0/0.2/2.4 :36|
|21||Goran Dragic, PHO||PG, SG||One of my big crushes this year, the FG% from a PG is elite. I see dimes going up and an even better follow-up after his 13-14 breakout, despite IT2 joining the G party in Phoenix.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.480/.770/1.4/18.0/3.1/6.2/1.4/0.3/2.7 :34|
|22||Kyle Lowry, TOR||PG||A monster breakout last year, I think he can do it again. Injury-risk after having career-long issues are still a concern.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.420/.800/2.1/17.0/4.4/7.2/1.5/0.2/2.4 :34|
|23||Kyrie Irving, CLE||PG, SG||It’s all postulation, but I think Kyrie can surprise with ratios, get more assists than most (Slim!) expects, but at the expense of a few points.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.860/1.6/18.0/3.4/5.2/1.5/0.3/2.4 :34|
|24||Chris Bosh, MIA||PF, C||No LeBron, time to own! I’m still not reaching too too hard, but I’ve moved him up a few spots from his original 30ish rank.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.495/.820/0.7/18.0/7.4/2.2/0.9/1.0/1.9 :34|
|25||Nicolas Batum, POR||SG, SF||Safe, reliable, multi-cat goodness. Should replicate 13-14 with relative ease.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.465/.820/2.0/13.5/7.2/5.0/1.0/0.8/2.4 :36|
|26||Nikola Vucevic, ORL||PF, C||Has always been underrated, should have another 1+ 5-cat line with his minutes bouncing back up and terrific %s.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.510/.770/0/16.0/11.8/1.9/1.0/1.0/2.0 :34|
|27||Ricky Rubio, MIN||PG||The offense continues to be muy mal, but another elite ast/stl season is worth the price of admission.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.390/.800/0.8/12.0/4.2/8.9/2.4/0.1/3.0 :34|
|28||Mike Conley, MEM||PG||Is the anti-Rubio, safer on all fronts, but without the category-killing upside.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.820/1.4/17.0/2.8/6.1/1.7/0.2/2.1 :34|
|↓ 29||Ty Lawson, DEN||PG||Injury concerns just continue to mount… Bad ankle and now a bum hammy. I know a special product in Denver that might help though!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.790/1.2/18.0/3.4/8.8/1.5/0.2/3.2 :36|
|30||Andre Drummond, DET||PF, C||A lot of people are still reaching, but while I’m not getting him close to top 20, I needed to move him up a smidge from where I had him at first. Probably not ending up on a lot of my teams, but if he’s there in my third round when I had the 6th or 7th pick, definitely taking him.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.600/.440/0/14.5/12.9/0.5/1.4/1.7/1.5 :34|
|31||Marc Gasol, MEM||C||19th overall player final two months, and that’s after recovering from a bad MCL sprain. Started slow under the Joerger regime, I’m stoked if Gasol falls to me here.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.480/.780/0/15.0/7.8/3.8/1.0/1.4/1.9 :34|
|32||Joakim Noah, CHI||PF, C||Had a career season without Rose, obvious regression to hit and lengthy track record of lingering injuries scares me.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.740/0/12.0/10.4/3.8/1.2/1.6/2.1 :34|
|33||Jrue Holiday, NOP||PG||The Pelicans are turning into a really interesting team if they can stay healthy, with Jrue the true PG running the show. December slash of 16.3/4.6/9/1.4/0.4 while finally gelling with the offense pre-injury shows you the upside.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.780/1.0/15.0/4.2/7.8/1.6/0.4/3.3 :34|
|↑ 34||Monta Ellis, DAL||PG, SG||A rock-solid safety pick, and he should have no problem duplicating 13-14 with maybe even a tad more upside with Dallas’ downgrade at PG. Finding myself very happy with him on teams with big men that aren’t huge scorers.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/775/0.8/19.0/3.7/5.9/1.5/0.2/3.1 :36|
||Victor Oladipo, ORL||PG, SG||Edit: Broke his face. Literally! Rough Rough offseason for RainbOladipo. I’ll give an estimate on his rank when there’s a little more news, but if I were drafting this second, I’d avoid.
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.790/1.2/17.5/4.7/4.8/1.8/0.6/3.2 :34|
|36||Kemba Walker, CHA||PG||Late-January ankle sprain lingered through the end of the season, improving AST:TO ratio while shooting tremendously pre-injury could make a draft day steal.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.820/1.6/18.0/4.2/6.4/1.4/0.4/2.4 :36|
|37||Chandler Parsons, DAL||SF, PF||Immediately makes me a Mavs fan, and he’s still in a high-powered offense.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.470/.750/1.7/15.5/5.6/3.9/1.2/0.4/1.8 :36|
|38||Derrick Favors, UTA||PF, C||So, so underrated. Shot 52.2% from the field last year, and with a terrible supporting cast, was creating his own post opportunities. Played only 30 MPG in 13-14, will get expanded if he can cut down the fouls and boost the board and blocks.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.505/.690/0/16.0/9.6/1.4/1.1/1.8/2.0 :34|
|↓ 39||Michael Carter-Williams, PHI||PG||Still really like him, but shoulder issue seems to keep lingering and lingering… It’s not going to be that long though!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.710/1.0/18.0/6.4/6.7/2.0/0.7/3.6 :36|
|40||Rudy Gay, SAC||SF, PF||Through mocks and a few drafts, he just isn’t appealing to me in the 30s. Serviceable, but boring.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.445/.790/0.7/19.0/5.5/2.8/1.3/0.6/2.8 :34|
|41||DeAndre Jordan, LAC||C||Played 3 minutes less a game post-ASB, and getting benched late is a worry for me. No way he plays 35 per in 14-15. I think we see more hack-a-Dre.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.650/.440/0/9.5/11.7/0.8/0.9/2.1/1.3 :32|
|42||Eric Bledsoe, PHX||PG, SG||I expect to be one of the lowest rankers on E Bled, finished only 52nd in per-game last year. While contract is hammered out, injury-risk still there, and he turned the ball over way too much in his first season as a full-time starter.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.465/.780/1.2/17.5/4.8/5.6/1.6/0.4/3.4 :34|
|43||Kobe Bryant, LAL||PG, SG||Incredibly polarizing – upside is huge, downside is he gets hurt again early on. I feel good with the risk here.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.840/1.3/19.0/4.6/5.0/1.1/0.2/2.0 :34|
|44||Derrick Rose, CHI||PG||I’m likely passing on D-Rose in all leagues, I think he’s lost too much with the knee injuries and I don’t like the risk.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.420/.820/1.6/18.0/3.2/6.3/0.8/0.4/3.4 :32|
|45||Wesley Matthews, POR||SG, SF||Definition of a safe pick, has played in every game in 4 of his 5 seasons, microscopic TOs, a perfect compliment to a high volume TO PG who doesn’t make enough 3s.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.830/2.4/16.0/3.4/2.4/1.1/0.2/1.4 :34|
|46||Gordon Hayward, UTA||SG, SF||His shooting from the field has consistently gone down in more minutes, Exum/Burke are not going to help FG% and TOs. Some slumps are going to be tough to bear, but overall slash should be solid.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.820/1.4/18.0/5.2/5.3/1.4/0.5/2.6 :36|
|47||Nerlens Noel, PHI||PF, C||This should put him on nearly all of my teams. Immense upside, more polished offensive game than he gets credit for – the probable minutes limitation does make it a gamble.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.510/.680/0/10.5/7.4/1.3/1.5/2.6/1.9 :28|
|48||Thaddeus Young, MIN||SF, PF||Succumbing a little bit to the consensus and to comments, I think I had him an iota too low earlier in the offseason. The steals are coming a little down, and I don’t think the perimeter game is going to carry over as much (K-Mart can only shoot 3s!), but solid here.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.460/.710/0.9/16.5/6.0/2.1/1.7/0.5/2.0 :34|
|49||Marcin Gortat, WAS||C||Huge season in Wizards debut, should have no problem having a comparable encore.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.545/.680/0/13.0/9.4/1.5/0.5/1.4/1.5 :32|
|50||DeMar DeRozan, TOR||SG, SF||As I mentioned before, for as high-volume a scorer he is, TOs very manageable. Solid FT shooter, assists have consistently gone up for his career, he can plug a lot of holes for roster comp early in the mid-rounds.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.820/0.5/23.0/4.1/3.9/0.9/0.3/2.1 :36|
|51||Pau Gasol, CHI||PF, C||While my original blurb before holds true (FG% should jump back up on a better team, out-of-position dimes are huge, chips in blocks still as well… Not much to not like other than injury risk), like Gay, I just never end up getting him so moved him down a little. I don’t want no boring! Is looking great in preseason though…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.500/.750/0/16.0/8.4/2.9/0.4/1.3/1.8 :30|
|↓ 52||Jabari Parker, MIL||SF||I think I had him too high, but I’m still reaching for the rookie – I think counting stats will be reliable and have a pretty consistent 34ish minute role.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.460/.760/0.7/14.5/7.8/1.0/0.9/0.7/2.8 :30|
|53||Tim Duncan, SAS||PF, C||Despite losing minutes and a racking up a couple DNPs, finished top-40 last year.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.480/.740/0/14.0/8.9/2.5/0.5/1.5/1.8 :28|
|54||Rajon Rondo, BOS||PG||A broken hand originally was set to cost him 10ish games, but looking like he’ll beat that timetable.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.445/.630/0.7/12.0/5.3/9.6/1.5/0.1/3.2 :32|
|55||Dwight Howard, HOU||PF, C||FT shooting kills him in 9-cat, would be near elite in non-FT/non-TO leagues. Ultimate league settings-variable pick.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.580/.550/0/18.0/11.9/1.6/0.9/1.9/2.9 :34|
|56||Trevor Ariza, HOU||SG, SF||Big breakout in 13-14 minimized with move to Houston, but 3s with low-TOs should yield another solid season.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.770/1.9/13.0/6.1/2.4/1.6/0.3/1.7 :34|
|↑ 57||Jose Calderon, NYK||PG||PG depth issues move the next two guys up a smidge. I’m buying a decent Ast resurgence in the triangle O, with similar 3s output and low TOs. Was a surprising value last year.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.840/2.3/11.0/2.4/6.1/0.9/0.1/1.6 :32|
|↑ 58||Jeff Teague, ATL||PG||Was so brutal in January last year, I’m worried by his streakiness. But PG is running thin by this point and should be solid if Horford and Millsap stay healthy.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.455/.840/1.0/17.0/2.7/6.6/1.3/0.3/2.8 :34|
|↑ 59||Kenneth Faried, DEN||PF||If he’s here this late, yeah I’m all-in now.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.540/.700/0/19.0/10.4/1.6/1.1/0.9/2.3 :32|
|60||David Lee, GSW||PF, C||Boring Pts/Reb guy, solid %s and high-floor keep him top-60.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.510/.780/0/17.0/8.9/2.4/0.7/0.3/2.1 :30|
|61||Klay Thompson, GSW||SG, SF||Poster boy of ThrAGNOF – don’t overpay for high-volume threes and low TOs while he does nothing else special.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.445/.800/2.7/18.0/3.1/2.1/0.9/0.4/1.6 :36|
|62||Andrew Wiggins, MIN||SF||Uncertain role that seems likely to begin off the bench, upside of the second half keeps him a mid-round reach.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.770/0.9/13.5/4.7/1.2/1.2/0.9/2.4 :30|
|63||Ryan Anderson, NOP||PF, C||Out-of-position treys with virtually no TOs makes him a good pair with the bigger name PGs. While spinal injury last year is scary, I think he’ll bounce back and be healthy.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.850/2.4/15.0/6.2/1.0/0.4/0.3/0.9 :28|
|↓ 64||Deron Williams, BKN||PG||I just never seem to want him at all… Minutes will be down again and injuries always seem to derail him, but still has some upside. Worth the gamble on his ankles at this point.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.810/1.4/15.0/2.6/6.6/1.1/0.2/2.5 :32|
|65||Darren Collison, SAC||PG||The Kings gave Colly starting money and he’ll have the keys. He and Sessions can play together; should facilitate well with low TOs. Extraordinarily under-ranked in several places.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.460/.840/1.3/14.0/2.8/5.9/1.4/0.2/2.1 :32|
|66||Brandon Knight, MIL||PG, SG||Numbers were stellar once he was fully back from the early hammy issues, playmakers like Parker and Giannis along with Kidd at the helm give him further breakout upside.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.425/.790/1.6/19.0/3.6/5.1/1.0/0.2/2.7 :34|
|67||Jimmy Butler, CHI||SG, SF||Fantastic preseason, and the thumb injury is OK so we can breath a sigh of relief. Some cold water though – shot under 40% last year and should see lower scoring with Rose back. Love his real-life game; 13-14 numbers slightly inflated by 38:39 MPG which is likely to go down a bit.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.420/.770/1.3/14.0/5.2/2.7/2.0/0.6/1.5 :36|
|68||Luol Deng, MIA||SF, PF||I see a good resurgence in Miami, was having a really big year in Chicago before being awful post-trade. He fits better in South Beach.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.770/0.9/16.0/5.4/2.6/1.0/0.2/1.5 :34|
|69||Tony Parker, SAS||PG||DNPs, injuries, minutes restrictions, oh my! Wicked witch of the Alamo…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.810/0.4/16.0/2.3/5.8/0.6/0.1/2.2 :30|
|70||Dwyane Wade, MIA||PG, SG||DNPs, injuries, minutes restrictions, oh my! Wicked witch of having bad knees…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.495/.740/0.3/20.0/4.5/4.8/1.4/0.5/2.9 :32|
|71||Robin Lopez, POR||C||Played 82 games past two years, and low TOs help the overall seasonal-ranking. I probably should be higher, but just can’t get over how not great at basketball he is…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.540/.810/0/11.0/8.6/0.8/0.4/1.6/1.0 :32|
|72||Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL||SG, SF||1.7:1.7 AST:TO pre-ASB to 2.3:1.5 post showed huge improvement with the ball, going to get a starting role, offers upside in all 9 cats. A huge Razzball favorite.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.460/.740/1.0/13.5/6.2/2.4/1.0/1.0/2.2 :32|
|73||Isaiah Thomas, PHO||PG||“I thought IT2 was going to be an interesting sleeper, but he’s getting ranked obscenely high.” That was when Yahoo had him 48. Now rankers have him closer to 100 making him a value (99 in Y!). Nice dimes/Pts/3s later in the draft.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.850/1.5/16.0/2.4/5.3/1.0/0.1/2.4 :28|
|74||Markieff Morris, PHO||PF, C||Per-36 26/11.3/3.4/1.6/1.4 with 0.8 treys a game last year, and looking at a role close to those minutes. Hype the past few weeks has caught up to him, as opposed to when we had 50 spots ahead of several rankers/ADPs.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.480/.790/0.8/17.0/6.8/2.2/1.0/0.9/2.2 :34|
|75||Terrence Jones, HOU||SF, PF||See second sentence of Morris, Markieff.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.520/.630/0.6/14.0/7.6/1.3/0.9/1.4/1.1 :30|
|76||Jonas Valanciunas, TOR||C||Vastly improved post-ASB, especially with FG% from 50 to 58, and maybe had some sophomore-slump-itis or an injury most of last year. Upside to bounce back, but I can’t reach after being burnt last year.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.540/.780/0/13.5/9.0/0.8/0.4/1.1/1.8 :30|
|↑ 77||Greg Monroe, DET||PF, C||Maintaining some ridiculously strong play through preseason. Is suspended the first two for wetting his pants (did he get a public urination charge?), but all we care about is fantasy stats and a golden shower. I mean golden trophy.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.680/0/16.5/9.6/2.4/1.2/0.7/1.8 :34|
|78||Kyle Korver, ATL||SG, SF||Not reaching for the ThrAGNOF, but another year of big minutes, big treys, and no TOs are in store. Plus he’s got sharp, oh so sharp talons.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.470/.920/2.6/12.0/4.0/3.0/0.9/0.3/1.5 :34|
|79||Kevin Martin, MIN||SG, SF||No more Love makes K-Mart the main offensive threat and should hit a bajillion treys. And don’t forget that purdy FT%.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.890/1.7/19.0/3.0/1.8/1.0/0.1/1.7 :32|
|80||Elfrid Payton, ORL||PG||Nothing’s changed with him being a horrible FT shooter for a PG and he’s going to turn the ball over way too much, but as I’ve found in drafts, PG dries up ridiculously fast. He’s the last option for assists upside.|
|81||Jeremy Lin, LAL||PG, SG||Low-upside, but Kobe to take the pressure off and a change of scenery could make him sneaky value. Don’t discount those steals!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.790/1.2/14.0/2.8/6.2/1.3/0.4/2.7 :30|
||George Hill, IND||PG, SG||Knee injury to cost him at least 3 weeks to start the year. Letting someone else deal with that, I would move him way down into the 130-140 range.
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.800/1.3/12.0/3.7/4.4/1.0/0.3/1.5 :32|
||Reggie Jackson, OKC||PG, SG||Sprained his ankle in practice and looks pretty serious. Moving him down into the 100s.
|84||Tyreke Evans, NOP||SG, SF||While his post-ASB play was astounding, a lot had to do with Jrue Holiday being hurt. Lingering knee issues led to a hamstring strain that kept him out of some preseason action. Back now, but still a little scurred.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.770/0.5/17.0/4.8/4.4/1.3/0.4/2.6 :30|
|85||Larry Sanders, MIL||PF, C||So hard to rank, so hard to like as a person, but upside is still there and his contract means he’s going to at least get a shot. Henson might start, however Sanders was still a monster in 12-13 at 27 MPG. I’m not reaching; that said, not explicitly passing either.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.560/0/9.0/8.1/1.1/0.9/2.3/1.2 :28|
|↑ 86||Tobias Harris, ORL||SF, PF||Having a phenomenal preseason – if not a little under the radar. Frye is hurt with the MCL, Magic are saying they have plans for him long-term, I think I was just a little clouded with just how bad last year started with his original rank.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.475/.800/0.8/17.0/7.2/1.4/1.0/0.6/1.4 :30|
|87||Josh Smith, DET||SF, PF||This rank is hoping Stan Van Gundy gets through to him and Smith improves the terrible %s and TOs. If he becomes a sixth man, I think he can maintain big Stl/Blk numbers even in reduced minutes.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.560/0.7/15.0/6.6/3.1/1.2/1.4/2.4 :32|
|↓ 88||Brook Lopez, BKN||C||Was 12th overall in per-game value in a short 13-14 sample. Key part is “short”. Ailing with a foot sprain right now, and these foot issues keep cutting into any optimism you could have.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.510/.790/0/18.0/6.0/1.0/0.5/1.6/1.7 :30|
|89||Arron Afflalo, DEN||SG, SF||Never been a fan, but the Nuggets needed a more consistent wing last year and he’ll be playing with the best PG he’s ever been paired with.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.455/.820/1.7/16.5/3.4/3.3/0.6/0.2/1.9 :34|
|↑ 90||Jordan Hill, LAL||PF, C||13/8.9/0.8/0.5/1.1 in 32 starts last year, and still in under 25 minutes a game. Needs the role, but I find myself wanting him top 100 for the blocks and great boards. I think the role is going to be there.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.530/.720/0/14.0/8.3/0.9/0.7/1.4/1.6 :28|
|91||Taj Gibson, CHI||PF, C||Durable, and even as a 6th man should get to 30 minutes especially behind brittle bigs. Underrated blocker.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.730/0/14.0/7.2/1.2/0.5/1.5/1.8 :30|
|92||Patrick Beverley, HOU||PG, SG||More minutes with Lin gone, his metric-friendly 3s/low TOs should carry over with good steals. Nothing too exciting, but value will add up.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.810/1.8/12.5/3.8/3.1/1.5/0.5/1.4 :34|
|93||Draymond Green, GSW||SF||#OccupyDraymondGreen! A monster last year in a low-minutes role, has a shot to start the 3 with Iggy off the bench. Multi-cat upside all over the place! Like TJones and Kieff, our 50+ spots higher rank has gotten caught up with.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.740/0.9/10.0/6.2/2.7/1.7/0.9/1.4 :28|
|↓ 94||David West, IND||PF||Underrated last year with a 46th overall finish, but suffered a bad ankle sprain a few days ago putting some regular season time in jeopardy. He’s a big dude too. A little scary.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.480/.790/0/15.5/7.2/2.8/0.8/0.8/1.9 :30|
|95||John Henson, MIL||PF, C||Even if Sanders starts, we can be productive. Poor man’s FT-punt big! Give him the minutes or give me death!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.530/.530/0/12.0/7.9/1.7/ 0.7/1.7/1.7 :28|
|96||Lance Stephenson, CHA||SG, SF||TOs should go down, but so should the boards. Like PBev, nothing exciting. But the sheer volume should accrue value.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.475/.710/1.2/14.5/7.2/4.2/0.8/0.1/2.6 :36|
|97||Jameer Nelson, DAL||PG||Been saying all offseason he will end up the starter, and with Raymond Felton suffering a high ankle sprain that can linger (think Tobias Harris and Ersan Ilyasova last year), huge minutes should be there.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.830/2.1/11.0/3.2/5.8/0.7/0.1/2.1 :30|
|98||Bradley Beal, WAS||SG||Broken wrist will cost him at least the first few weeks of the season.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.420/.800/1.9/18.0/3.8/3.5/1.0/0.2/1.8 :36|
|↑ 99||Spencer Hawes, LAC||PF, C||Looking really, really good lately in preseason. A revelation last year, should still get must-own minutes as Clips’ backup PF/C.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.465/.770/1.4/11.5/7.4/2.3/0.4/1.0/1.7 :28|
|100||Zach Randolph, MEM||PF, C||Consistency! And Pts/Reb! And that’s it…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.465/.750/0/16.0/9.4/2.3/0.7/0.3/2.1 :32|
|101||Andrew Bogut, GSW||C||Always ends up finishing higher that you’d expect in value, but always ends up as hurt as you’d expect…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.570/.450/0/7.5/9.5/1.6/0.6/1.6/1.4 :26|
|102||Tyson Chandler, DAL||C||Return to Dallas will solidify a nice late Reb/Blk contribution.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.600/.660/0/8.0/9.4/1.0/0.6/1.1/1.2 :30|
|103||J.J. Redick, LAC||SG||In an injury-riddled campaign, was actually 67th in per-game last year. A great fit in the Clips O for sneaky value. Plus, this is an appropriate time to start ThrAGNOF!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.900/2.2/15.0/2.3/2.4/0.7/0.1/1.2 :30|
|104||Joe Johnson, BKN||SG, SF||Had some big spikes when D-Will got hurt, but D-Will will have some injury stretches again…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.820/1.8/14.5/3.3/2.9/0.6/0.1/1.6 :32|
|↑ 105||Jared Sullinger, BOS||PF, C||13.9/9/1.8/0.5/0.8 with 0.8 treys in 44 starts last year, in 29:33 a game. Markieff Morris-lite.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.780/1.0/15.0/8.4/1.8/0.6/0.7/1.9 :30|
|↑ 106||Mason Plumlee, BKN||PF, C||Lopez already having foot issues, Prof. Plum is having some ridiculous preseason lines. Gonna play some way or another…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.550/.650/0/13.5/8.3/1.3/1.0/1.2/2.1 :28|
|107||Gorgui Dieng, MIN||C||Pekovic is going to be limited to 26-27 minutes a game, which means gimme the Dieng train! If he’s routinely over 20 MPG, on top of the really realistic shot at numerous starts behind brittle Pek, he needs to be drafted aggressively. Last 18 games last year (15 starts) 12/11.3/1.5/1.1/1.5 shooting 53% FG 71% FT only 1.8 TO. Gimme the Dieng train!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.510/.680/0/8.5/8.6/ 1.1/0.7/1.1/1.1 :24|
|108||Brandon Jennings, DET||PG||Horrific last year, and Stan Van emphasizing rotations and defense isn’t going to help. But still upside; he’s a talented player.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.390/.780/1.8/15.0/2.9/7.4/1.3/0.1/2.6 :32|
|109||Rodney Stuckey, IND||PG, SG||George Hill isn’t a passer and Stuckey might be the main offensive catalyst. While on an offensively-challenged team, still think he can surprise.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.425/.830/0.5/15.5/3.2/3.8/0.9/0.2/2.1 :32|
|↑ 110||Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DET||SG||With Meeks out, should be a pretty big-minute starter. Some might overreach – I love him obviously – but 3s and steals and very low TOs are about all you get. Which is great as a last pick or two sleeper.|
|111||DeMarre Carroll, ATL||SF, PF||Was a much better player after Horford injury so I won’t reach for value he gave in 13-14.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.465/.770/1.3/11.0/5.6/1.8/1.4/0.3/1.1 :32|
|112||Paul Pierce, WAS||SF, PF||Age obviously up there, and the Wiz are loaded at SF. A healthy, big-minute season would make this way wrong, but I’m hedging against it.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.820/1.4/13.0/4.4/2.2/1.0/0.3/2.0 :28|
|113||Roy Hibbert, IND||C||I’m not touching Hibbert unless he falls way down and I need blocks.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.760/0/12.0/7.1/1.3/0.4/2.1/1.9 :28|
|114||Henry Sims, PHI||C||13.1/7.7/2/0.9/0.4 with only 1.4 TO in final 19 games last year, and should start for most of the year until Embiid is 100% ready. Nothing has sounded too optimistic for Embiid and Sims is ready to provide solid big man stats, but he’s not a blocker. You have to figure that in with your roster comp.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.500/.750/0/12.0/7.2/1.8/0.9/0.5/1.4 :28|
|115||Channing Frye, ORL||PF, C||MCL strain doesn’t sound too serious, but it doesn’t really bode well for his vibe. I’m all about a hippie approach to rankings this year. His aura is not cleansed.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.810/2.0/11.0/5.6/1.2/0.7/0.8/1.0 :30|
|116||Amir Johnson, TOR||PF, C||Lingering ankle issue and Raptors PF depth scare me.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.560/.680/0.3/12.0/7.6/1.6/0.9/1.4/1.7 :30|
|117||Andre Iguodala, GSW||SG, SF||I think he’s going to lead the second unit, which might not be the worst thing. Assists early until Livingston is full strength could come in bunches.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.460/.660/0.9/10.0/4.4/3.9/1.3/0.3/1.5 :30|
|118||Nikola Pekovic, MIN||C||Minutes reduction is an absolute killer. Gave you his previous output through volume, and really only scores and rebounds. Yikes.|
|119||Danny Green, SAS||SG, SF||Took off after the ASB, shooting 6% better and upping treys from 1.5 to 2.6. Pop will make him frustrating, but will end up a value.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.800/2.1/10.0/3.3/1.6/0.9/0.8/1.2 :26|
|120||Danilo Gallinari, DEN||SF||Will be a forgotten name in many draft rooms, still offers a pretty good fantasy line if he’s healthy.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.800/1.6/13.5/4.7/2.2/0.8/0.4/1.4 :28|
|121||Jamal Crawford, LAC||PG, SG||Spiked in dimes while CP3 was hurt, minutes and points to regress and late nagging injuries last year scare me.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.870/2.0/16.0/1.9/2.7/0.8/0.1/1.8 :28|
|122||Timofey Mozgov, DEN||C||I thought about moving him down, but McGee still won’t be play big minutes even if 100% healthy and who knows how effective Hickson will be….|
|123||Jeff Green, BOS||SG, SF||One of the “busts of the year” for 13-14, really nothing indicates he’ll be any better in 14-15.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.425/.800/1.4/15.0/4.5/1.5/0.6/0.6/1.9 :32|
|124||Anderson Varejao, CLE||PF, C||Big rebounds and not too much else in a sub-30 MPG role, does sneak in a steal a game for you from a big.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.500/.670/0/8.0/9.2/2.0/1.0/0.6/1.1 :26|
|125||Nene Hilario, WAS||PF, C||Worth a reach if punting FT or TO, would be higher if he wasn’t so old and injury prone.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.500/.660/0/13.0/5.8/2.6/1.1/0.8/1.9 :28|
|126||Enes Kanter, UTA||C||I maintain he’s terrible on defense and was much better against second units last year, but the move to PF with Favors to C fits his game so much better, and sheer volume of minutes will give him value.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.740/0/13.0/7.6/1.0/0.4/0.6/1.9 :28|
|127||Trey Burke, UTA||PG||Anemic steals, horrible FG%, but is the last big minute PG on the board if you need some upside.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.400/.870/1.7/13.5/3.1/5.9/0.8/0.1/2.0 :32|
|128||Josh McRoberts, MIA||PF, C||Recovery from toe surgery sounds like it will keep him out of the opener, shouldn’t miss too much time, but I haven’t wanted to draft him until this late, at best.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.730/1.3/10.0/5.6/3.9/0.8/0.6/1.1 :30|
|129||Manu Ginobili, SAS||SG, SF||Finished 98th in under 23 minutes a game last year, should come close to repeat but game-to-game will be maddening to own.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.840/1.4/12.5/3.1/4.1/0.9/0.2/2.0 :24|
|130||J.R. Smith, NYK||SG, SF||Career-high assists last year with horrible Felton at PG, those will go down, treys to regress, never been a JR fan.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.420/.720/2.5/15.5/3.8/2.6/1.0/0.2/1.5 :32|
|↑ 131||Otto Porter, WAS||SF||Washington SG dropping like flies, Rice out with an ankle, Beal for the first few weeks, and Otto P will get Pierce’s backup minutes. A rapid riser through preseason.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.750/0.9/10.0/3.6/0.5/0.5/0.3/1.0 :24|
|↓ 132||Corey Brewer, MIN||SG, SF||Yeah, I just had him too high… Awesome for steals, but Wiggins will cut into PT and you can wait to get him for those steals with your last pick most of the time in 12ers.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.710/0.6/11.5/2.6/1.6/1.7/0.4/1.3 :30|
|133||Ramon Sessions, SAC||PG, SG||The Kings are already flashing three-guard sets, and Collison and Sessions are going to play a lot of minutes together. Very solid value with your last pick or two for a few treys, assists, and nice FT shooting.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.810/0.5/12.0/2.8/4.2/0.6/0.1/1.8 :26|
|134||Omer Asik, NOP||PF, C||Beyond boards and a block a game, doesn’t do too much and won’t get huge minutes. FT drain a bugaboo too.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.540/.600/0/9.0/10.2/0.5/0.5/1.2/1.8 :28|
|135||Gerald Green, PHO||SG, SF||I just don’t see the minutes, and pre-ranks of him top 100 are outrageous. Should hit some treys for you, but not a guy you’ll have on your roster all year.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.830/1.8/12.0/2.4/0.8/0.6/0.2/1.4 :22|
|136||Mario Chalmers, MIA||PG||He’s the only guy of the 3 Heat PG I have ranked – avoiding all 3 most likely.|
|137||Andrea Bargnani, NYK||PF, C||13.7/5.3/1.1/0.3/1.3 with 0.7 treys and only 1.3 TOs in 23 starts last year, and a good fit for the Triangle offense. There’s upside there, even if it’s hard to believe…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.820/0.8/13.0/4.6/0.9/0.4/0.8/1.4 :28|
|138||Matt Barnes, LAC||SF||Like McBob, a low upside stat-stuffer late. Big 2nd half last year was aided by having no Redick on the court, who I think has a big year in 14-15.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.740/1.2/9.0/4.6/1.8/0.8/0.4/1.1 :26|
|139||Miles Plumlee, PHO||PF, C||Completely fell off when the calendar turned to 2014, but for a late source of blocks, Frye let go will open up more minutes.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.510/.580/0/9.0/8.0/ 0.6/0.6/1.2/1.4 :26|
|140||Terrence Ross, TOR||SG, SF||Young with upside like the ridiculous 51-pointer, but still raw and lacks in most cats right now. Worth the lottery pick at this point.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.810/2.3/13.0/3.4/1.2/1.0/0.4/1.4 :30|
|141||Mirza Teletovic, BKN||SF, PF||Kirilenko is already hurt with a back issue, Kevin Garnett is a walking back issue, Teletovic is primed for a breakout with a boatload of treys. ThrAGNOF!|
|↑ 142||Marcus Morris, PHO||PF||Some minutes are opened up with Frye gone, starting the first 3 with Tucker suspended, will be a surprising bottom-end contributor with treys from a PF.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.445/.750/1.5/11.0/4.3/1.3/1.0/0.3/1.3 :26|
|143||Eric Gordon, NOP||SG||Yet another offseason knee surgery, played in 115/246 games the past three years. Not touching him.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.800/1.4/15.0/2.2/3.1/1.0/0.2/1.9 :30|
|144||Brandan Wright, DAL||PF, C||Not too much depth behind Dirk and Tyson, and both are way up there in age giving Wright a shot at more than expected minutes.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.600/.700/0/10.5/4.9/0.7/0.7/1.1/0.8 :22|
|145||K.J. McDaniels, PHI||SF||The upside for a starting role is still there, and not many wings give you blocks. Worth the last pick flier. Two 4 block games this preseason.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.770/0.8/12.5/5.6/1.4/1.0/1.2/1.7 :30|
|↑ 146||JaVale McGee, DEN||C||Great to see him close to playing. A nice blocks gamble.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.530/.590/0/10.0/6.8/0.5/0.5/1.7/1.5 :24|
|147||Rudy Gobert, UTA||C||Playing like a monster in preseason. And there’s really no depth behind Kanter and Favors. Showing he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to be useful. FT concerns are definitely still there though…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.560/.580/0/5.0/7.2/0.3/0.3/1.5/1.3 :20|
|148||Alec Burks, UTA||PG, SG||Not big on treys, pretty bad TO, and might lose PT to groom Exum late in the year…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.460/.760/0.8/16.5/3.8/3.0/1.1/0.3/2.1 :32|
|↑ 149||Steven Adams, OKC||C||Showing some huge promise in preseason. Love him as a final pick – minutes and usage still a concern.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.540/.620/0/7.0/7.1/ 0.8/0.7/1.0/1.3 :24|
|150||Avery Bradley, BOS||PG, SG||Brings you some scoring and out-of-position boards, but not too much upside.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.790/1.6/15.5/3.7/1.6/1.1/0.1/1.8 :32|
|151||Ersan Ilyasova, MIL||SF, PF||Looked downright awful last year, but was top 50 in 12-13 and came into last year with a bum ankle. Won’t be me seeing if he can bounce back though…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.820/0.5/11.5/6.1/1.1/0.7/0.2/1.0 :24|
|↑ 152||Kelly Olynyk, BOS||C||I plain and simple had him too low, but still probably not getting him anywhere. A decent NBA player, but not a good starter and will be stuck in a minutes rut at times in Stevens’ system, methinks.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.480/.810/0.8/12.0/7.1/2.7/0.5/0.5/1.9 :28|
|153||D.J. Augustin, DET||PG||There’s been nothing but encouragement for D.J., and nothing optimistic about Jennings. A full split could happen quickly, if not a full changing of the guard. No pun intended!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.415/.880/1.3/10.5/1.7/3.9/0.7/0.1/1.6 :24|
|154||C.J. Miles, IND||SG, SF||Deep source of treys and steals, especially if he wins the starting 3 role over Solomon Hill.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.420/.810/1.5/12.5/2.7/1.9/1.0/0.3/1.2 :28|
|155||Wilson Chandler, DEN||SG, SF||Wasted a big opportunity last year, Gallinari to take a ton of minutes away.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.760/1.6/12.5/4.6/1.7/0.7/0.6/1.2 :28|
|156||Dion Waiters, CLE||SG||Super-duper ThrAGNOF with lower offensive volume with LeBron in town. Should find himself a lot of wide open treys though…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.720/1.5/13.5/2.6/2.8/0.9/0.2/1.9 :28|
|157||Jarrett Jack, BKN||PG, SG||Will fill in admirably in the Shaun Livingston role, doing nothing exceptional but being useful.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.840/0.9/11.5/3.1/4.3/0.7/0.2/1.8 :30|
|↓ 158||P.J. Tucker, PHO||SG, SF||I just don’t see myself getting him, losing the first 3 games to suspension – Marcus Morris who I think is pretty good and could really eat into Tucker’s minutes when he’s back.|
|159||Vince Carter, MEM||SG, SF||Three year deal shows commitment, easily could start and play 30 minutes at the 3.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.820/1.7/11.0/3.3/2.4/0.7/0.4/1.3 :24|
|160||Tim Hardaway Jr., NYK||SG||One of the many reasons you ThrAGNOF!|
|Slim’s Projection:||.420/.820/2.0/13.0/1.7/0.9/0.7/0.1/0.7 :28|
|161||Alex Len, PHO||C||With no one else behind Miles Plumlee, who really fell off last year, the former #5 pick could be a really interesting off-the-radar surprise. I still just have a gut feeling on this one.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.510/.660/0/5.5/5.1/ 0.6/0.2/0.8/1.2 :18|
|162||Wes Johnson, LAL||SG, SF||Still a little bit of a minutes crunch, and he’s not going to touch the ball much on O, but his value is in Stls/Blks.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.420/.780/1.1/8.5/4.1/1.4/0.9/0.8/1.0 :26|
|163||Chris Andersen, MIA||PF, C||The late availability of blocks with a pretty low-risk investment is worth a rank here, especially for deeper-leaguers needing da swats.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.560/.680/0/7.0/6.6/0.2/0.5/1.7/0.9 :22|
|164||Tony Wroten, PHI||PG||Looking more and more like he’s coming off the bench, as I was hoping he got a starting 2 role. He’s a big guy who could handle that position, but an off-the-bench guy with horrible FT numbers… Eh… Does get a mini-boost if MCW misses a lot of time, but I’m still optimistic MCW can make it on the court pretty soon.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.660/0.7/13.5/3.4/3.2/1.1/0.2/2.8 :26|
|165||Doug McDermott, CHI||SF||Told he’ll need to jack up treys and could start at the 3. Not going to do much besides 3s/Pts though…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.860/1.6/ 9.5/3.2/1.3/0.2/0.1/1.4 :20|
|166||James Ennis, MIA||SF||Playing fantastic this preaseson, playing aggressive getting FT opportunities, hitting treys, his explosiveness will mean a ton to the Heat 2nd unit. And if injuries arise (who are we kidding? With Wade, it’s WHEN injuries arise!), look out.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.770/1.0/7.0/3.2/0.9/0.7/0.5/1.1 :20|
|167||Marvin Williams, CHA||SF, PF||Off his best per-36 season, by far his best perimeter output, and should get big minutes.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.780/1.2/8.5/4.7/1.1/0.7/0.4/0.8 :28|
|168||C.J. McCollum, POR||PG, SG||Really if he was anywhere else he could be a major sleeper, still should see productive minutes as main backup G.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.810/1.6/13.5/3.6/2.7/1.2/0.2/1.9 :26|
|↓ 169||Nik Stauskas, SAC||SG||While I still see him taking a lot of McLemore’s minutes and being a surprise source of assists with low TOs (along with the given treys and good %s), Sessions is going to play a ton of minutes with Colly in that backcourt.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.830/1.6/11.0/2.2/2.3/0.4/0.1/1.0 :26|
|170||Boris Diaw, SAS||PF, C||Late source of out-of-position assists, giving you 2.8 a game last year from a center.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.510/.720/0.5/8.5/4.1/2.8/0.6/0.4/1.5 :24|
|↓ 171||Marcus Smart, BOS||PG||Rondo is ahead of schedule and Smart has been pretty awful in preseason. Some slight upside he can start in the second half if Rondo is moved, or play some dual-G minutes with him, albeit unlikely.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.760/1.1/11.0/4.1/3.2/1.2/0.3/1.8 :26|
|172||James Johnson, TOR||SF, PF||Listed as a SF reserve could make him really interesting since Terrence Ross is a question mark at best as a starter, per-36s last year were redonk.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.730/0.3/7.5/4.2/1.8/0.9/1.0/1.3 :20|
|↑ 173||Austin Rivers, NOP||PG, SG||I mentioned him late last year as a guy to target this year, but the Pelicans came out and said Russ Smith had won a backup PG role. LIARS! Rivers playing a lot of preseason minutes as the combo backup G.|
|174||Rodney Hood, UTA||SF||Sneaky ThrAGNOF upside, the Jazz have a serious lack of other perimeter shooters.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.810/1.2/7.5/3.0/1.2/0.5/0.1/0.9 :20|
|175||Khris Middleton, MIL||SF, PF||Finished 75th last year in total value, was durable for 82 games, is versatile enough to play backup to the 2, 3 and 4.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.830/0.7/8.0/2.9/1.3/0.9/0.2/0.9 :24|
|176||Samuel Dalembert, NYK||C||I think Jason Smith is going to steal more minutes than you’d expect, still some late blocks upside.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.560/.750/0/9.0/7.9/0.7/0.6/1.3/1.3 :24|
|177||Carlos Boozer, LAL||PF, C||Even though he only scores and boards, starting minutes should be there.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.480/.730/0/14.0/8.5/1.7/0.7/0.3/2.1 :28|
|↑ 178||Kyle O’Quinn, ORL||PF, C||Our favorite transplanted Irishman, while I love watching him beard it out in real life, the minutes are still a concern. But he’s playing fantastic this preseason following up a 9/7/1.6/0.8/1.8 second half last year.|
|179||Marco Belinelli, SAS||SG, SF||A roster filler with no upside, I think I had him too high considering he does nothing very well. Besides not turn the ball over. And, well, get the Spurs announcers all amped up with Italian cliches…|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.830/1.4/10.5/2.7/2.2/0.6/0.1/1.1 :24|
|180||Kris Humphries, WAS||PF, C||Backup PF/C minutes galore, with both guys ahead of him old and injury-prone. Solid when given run last year.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.500/.800/0/10.0/6.6/1.0/0.5/1.0/1.0 :24|
|181||Randy Foye, DEN||PG, SG||Had a huge year last year, but a greatly reduced role behind Lawson and Afflalo in 14-15.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.850/1.3/10.0/2.1/2.5/0.6/0.2/1.2 :22|
|↓ 182||Kendall Marshall, MIL||PG||Eh, I think I looked at him with too much D’Antoni’s-crappy-team/opportunity-colored glasses. This still has him higher than most since assists come at such a premium this year.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.410/.680/0.9/7.5/2.1/6.4/0.7/0.1/2.0 :24|
|183||Evan Turner, BOS||SG, SF||In a minutes crunch on a crowded rotations-based team, but could do something useful. Not buying any preseason action.|
|184||Bojan Bogdanovic, BKN||SG||Looks like he’s won himself a starting job, and he’s good for two things. Points and threes. ThrAGNOF!|
|↑ 185||Jeremy Lamb, OKC||SG, SF||His stats will be top heavy during this early run without KD, but as a late pick I really like him even in 12ers. Might catch lamb in a bottle. I mean lightning.|
|186||Cory Joseph, SAS||PG||A sleeper pick due to lack of roster depth, Patty Mills is coming off rotator cuff surgery and Tony Parker is always hurt. Could leave Joseph with a lot more minutes than people expect.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.460/.820/0.4/8.5/2.7/2.9/1.0/0.3/1.1 :20|
|187||Dante Exum, UTA||PG||Knew he would fall mightily after publishing the ranks the first time through, just too raw for the NBA to trust for anything right now. Second half chance for minutes keeps him top 200.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.400/.720/0.6/8.5/2.4/2.9/0.8/0.1/1.7 :24|
|188||Luis Scola, IND||PF, C||Hibbert could continue to be awful, and Scola is backing up West who has a bum ankle. There’s just no depth on that front line.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.470/.750/0/8.0/5.2/1.2/0.3/0.2/1.4 :20|
|189||Ryan Kelly, LAL||PF||Even though there’s a ton of depth at PF on the Lakers, he’s the only one that can stretch the floor.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.430/.820/0.7/7.5/3.4/1.5/0.5/0.6/0.8 :18|
|190||Tony Allen, MEM||SG, SF||A late source of steals and that’s about it, a no-upside deep league play.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.480/.720/0.2/9.5/3.9/1.6/1.4/0.4/1.3 :26|
|191||Jason Smith, NYK||PF, C||Late-round flyer for some boards and a block, should see some decent minutes behind Dalembert.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.460/.770/0/8.0/4.8/0.6/0.3/0.9/0.9 :20|
|192||Iman Shumpert, NYK||SG, SF||Offers you a steal and a trey, and that’s about it. Tough competition for minutes against emerging Timmay J.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.400/.760/1.1/9.0/3.8/2.3/1.4/0.2/1.1 :28|
|193||Mike Dunleavy, CHI||SG, SF||McDermott (maybe) stealing the starting role hurts, as does how good I think Snell is going to be down the road. A role player with no upside.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.820/1.4/10.5/4.1/2.0/0.7/0.4/1.2 :28|
|194||Tiago Splitter, SAS||C||No upside, but hits all cats for a roster-filler in deep leagues.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.540/.710/0/9.0/6.2/1.5/0.6/0.6/1.2 :22|
|195||Hollis Thompson, PHI||SF, PF||Treys and steals upside if he indeed starts, right now is lightly penciled in.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.450/.740/1.3/8.0/3.6/1.3/0.9/0.2/1.1 :28|
|196||Mike Scott, ATL||PF||Can back up the 3 and 4, might take some injuries to really hit on upside, but deep ball threat should keep him usable in deep leagues all year.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.470/.780/1.0/11.0/3.8/1.1/0.5/0.1/1.2 :22|
|Jeff Adrien, HOU||SF, PF||A rather bizarre waiving by the Rockets. Contract and role seemed pretty assuring to produce some value.
|Slim’s Projection:||.490/.660/0/9.5/7.1/ 0.8/0.6/0.7/1.1 :22|
|198||Shaun Livingston, GSW||PG, SG||The toe surgery continues to linger, and I’m getting increasingly worried for the vet.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.470/.820/0/7.5/2.6/3.1/0.8/0.3/1.2 :20|
|↑ 199||Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA||SF||He’s obviously a horrible scorer, but the counting stats in the minutes he should play make him barely sneak in at the least minute.|
|200||Donatas Motiejunas, HOU||SF, PF||Even though he’s not listed as a C on Yahoo, is the only C behind Dwight and could be a sneaky value for out-of-position treys.|
|Slim’s Projection:||.440/.620/0.5/8.0/4.9/0.8/0.5/0.4/1.2 :20|
Dropped Out: Jodie Meeks, Nick Young, Russ Smith, Tony Snell
We get to keep two players for two years (Yahoo, Auction). I kept Lillard for 17 and George for 33. After that gruesome injury, I obviously wont be keeping him next year.
My other options (No percentages league) –
Dwight Howard – 25
Paul Millsap – 21
Who would you take? I love me some Millsap, but with Horford back, I dont see him sustaining what he did last year.
@Bryce Krispie Treats: Ugh, yeah rough one for George… I think since no percentages, I indeed am keeping Dwight as well. Without that FT% drain, Dwight is a near-elite player, even though I love me some Millsap even with Horford back 🙂 Millsap will still be a second rounder for me, but yeah, Dwight should kill for ya
That was my thought as well. I just hope he can keep healthy during the playoff stretch.
Thoughts on Thad Young if he goes to the wolves? Im a wolves fan unfortunately, but what do you think about fantasy and real life? Im a huge fan of him coming up north! If everything goes down as planned, I dont know how we could have gotten anything better for Love.
@Bryce Krispie Treats: Me too, hopefully he can have a healthy offseason and be good to go.
Thad would be great on the Wolves. Rubio is a better facilitator than MCW and I think he could be about what he was on the Sixers. Yeah – Thad AND Wiggins?! Huge haul for a guy not staying anyway, good core building. I really like Dieng too, so you have a little depth too. I’ve always liked Rubio, so I think the Wolves will be one of my favorite teams to watch in 14-15.
Alright I’ve got a couple, 1st up I’m taking James Harden over Chris Paul.
Everything I could say about Harden you covered in the top 10 post so that parts done. Chris Paul is getting a little long in tooth for me. I still think he’s going to have a great year and all, I like Paul at #6, but between the 2 I’m taking Harden. I think injury wise Harden is a safer play and at this point in their respective careers I think my bearded brethren has a better chance of outperforming last years numbers. Also, you mentioned Lin and while Ariza should be just fine replacing Parsons defensively, offensively he doesn’t and that should put even more pressure on Harden. I think Harden could challenge Durant in a stat I couldn’t possibly explain but seems to matter, usage or USG%.
@Slim: Yeah I’m not well versed on USG%, it’s in the basketball reference glossary, but it seems like a meh advanced stat to me: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
I could see Harden indeed pushing Durant for it though, especially with Westbrook playing a full heatlhy season.
As I mentioned in the top 10, Harden was really close to 5 as well, just Paul’s category killing assists swung me. Plus leading the league in steals! You love steals! Per game, Paul was a little better and not much has changed there basketball wise, only owner wise. Very very very very close though for those 2.
@JB Gilpin: I actually have a counter for that… wait for it… Harden’s 6+ assists are out of position assists (Ideally I would start him at SF on my fantasy team). So if I start the same amount of PGs as my opponent I would have an advantage. I think it’s enough to negate Paul’s extra assists assuming equal numbers of PGs and their starting SF is your normal 2ish assists guy.
I know the steals and yeah I love steals but for me that’s a young mans category. I feel like as guys get older that category tends to come down. Just in general… It wouldn’t shock me if they actually finished pretty close in the category.
@Slim: That’s a really good point… Depends on your matchup week-to-week, but you’re starting to swoon me.
Wouldn’t shock me if the steals were close either, but I think Paul can still lead the league again.
@JB Gilpin: Yeah I’m with you. The difference is razor thin.
Next up… I’m taking Wall and Westbrook over Love. Ibaka too?
Elite PGs are irreplaceable and unless I’m willing to reach for one early in the 2nd round I think I would find it difficult to achieve my goal of 2 PGs in the 1st 4 rounds (3 in the 1st 6 rounds) unless I take Wall/Westy in the 1st. If we’re right about Love losing some points and boards then combined with his already low end steals and blocks his stats shouldn’t be difficult to find a round or 2 later. I think my projections have him in the same tier as like an Aldridge or Jefferson. Somewhere in the early-to-mid 2nd round. #12 feels about right to me. Someone to look for around the turn in a 12er when the top 4 PGs are off the board. I’m getting a little ahead of myself but I think I would take Melo and Cousins over Love too, and Cousins over Melo if you were wondering.
Wall/Westy vs Ibaka is a really tough one but ultimately the blocks win out for me too. I would be pretty stoked to get any of these three with my 1st round pick.
My favorite late pick combo would be Wall or Westy with Ibaka or Cousins but that might be asking a little too much. Pairing one of those PGs with either Millsap, Horford, Jefferson, or Aldridge is probably the way to go and I think I like them in that order. Aldridge last due to already poor FG% from the PG. Paired with Melo is just fine too but I don’t think Melo will make it out of the 1st round.
@Slim: Well comparing Love to Al and Jeff, I think Love’s 2+ treys a game put him slightly over those guys. Sure you lose a shade of a block too… But I think he can still be a first rounder.
Hmmm cousins over Melo??? I have then Melo 11 Cuz 12. So very close there too.
Both of those combos in a swing would be deadly. Melo’s ADP will probably be 7 or 8, I’m with ya there…
@JB Gilpin: You kinda ducked that one. So Love is higher than the 2nd round group of bigs. OK I agree, he at least leads the pack. But what about Love v Wall/Westy? If given that choice are you taking Love? I think Love screams Chris Bosh type of decline. That risk feels too great to me. Wall and Westy are nice and safe, well as safe as fantasy can be. Overall though I think the 1st round feels pretty safe (besides Love).
I’ll wait for my Cousins over Melo argument till the next list comes out. My Cousins projection looks kind of silly so I guess that means I’m buying Cousins in the top 10.
@Slim: I’m not a duck, you’re a duck!
Yeah I’d take Love and build up two PGs at pick 3/4 wrap around or pair him with Wall/Westbrook if one isn’t picked. I think I could still get PG depth.
Bosh’s rebounds were in decline a while, topping out at 10.8 to Love’s 14 or some odd. Bosh has never made more than a 3 a game. And Love is younger in the pairing, I think he’ll be a lot better.
Wow, yeah I could see Cuz going top 10 though, I mean at 12, not like I’m that different with him. Excited to see the projections when they’re out!
@JB Gilpin: By our rankings Love plus one of those 2 PGs won’t be possible in a 12er. Waiting for 2 late 3rd and early 4th PGs is interesting. The big run of PGs should be over in the early 30’s, but I imagine a few would still be around. So assuming that’s the plan, who do you like as a 2nd round pick to pair Love with plus round 3 and 4 PGs? You can’t pick anyone in your top 12 ranks, them be the rules.
I’m not saying he’s going to be Bosh. I still have him in the 1st round compared to Bosh who has been more 3rd/4th round since he left Toronto. But I think the decline in stats should be measurably comparable.
As we have theses conversations here’s what I’ve got so far as a working top 12… (RCL style) Durant, Brow, Curry, LeBron, Harden, Paul, Wall, Westy, Ibaka, Cousins, Melo, Love. This of course is without considering fantasy playoff schedule. You know how I feel about the importance of playoff schedules. We’ll get to that eventually.
@Slim: Damn, so no Love/Cousins? Maybe I’ll rank him 13 then! That would be a nasty start. Well I would follow my ranks (spoiler alert) and reach for Millsap. Love/Millsap to start… I kinda like that too.
Ohhhhh I’m pumped for the playoff schedule post. I’m gonna make that a category and something linked in the menu, I’ll be referencing that all year.
@JB Gilpin: I’m on board Millsap at 13. So sure Love/Millsap is a solid start but I’d rather go Cousins/Millsap. I’ve been trying to think who to draft if punting FT% and I’m starting to think Cousins/Millsap 1/2 could be the way to go for it. Then 3/4 going with either Drummond or Jordan, which ever is available and grabbing Howard a few rounds later. The other 3/4 has to be a PG but and I think the top assist man would be ideal. Rondo, Rubio type. Steals are gonna be big time with this build.
3. (Rondo or Rubio)
4. (Drummond or Jordan)
5/6. PG and Howard.
7 and on. 2 more PGS (I know you like Calderon and he should work here too.) Maybe Collison will still be around but I doubt it. 1 more big (lots of interesting options late). Gonna need some 3s from wings. Easy enough.
Mikey likes it! Turnovers are a little high but we can work with that.
@Slim: Yeah that would be a nasty team. Definitely fits the ThrAGNOF mold! I would love getting Rondo there at 3. I think he’s undervalued. I still like Love over Cuz and would balance some treys, but they’re not that important anyway 🙂
@JB Gilpin: It’s going to be difficult for me to go 2 non-PGs late in the 1st/ early in the 2nd. Waiting till the mid-30s for my 1st PG takes some cajones I’m not so sure I have. Then again from my rankings I might not have a choice. There are several PGs i’m very interested to see what their ADPs turn out to be. Collison, Jrue, Rondo, Elfrid (dont think I’ve forgotten), Lin, Calderon, and Beverley of course! are a few off the top of my head.
@Slim: Yeah I think all those guys you list except Lin/Elfird/Beverley I’ll have ranked above their ADPs and if I got 3 of em, I’d be fine at point.
The difference is that Bosh was never ranked top 10 overall at any point, so for him to slide to the 40’s wasn’t actually that terrible. Also interesting to point out that he didn’t have a 3pt shot at first, so that hurt him too. It’s worth mentioning that since he developed the 3pt shot he’s been ranked in the top 20s. I think Love’s 3ptm and possible FG% will jump a bit so that will help ameliorate the decline in pts/reb that we’re assuming he’ll see.
@Count Macula: I don’t know if that possible % jump will completely cover the decline, but it will help mask it so I’m semi-agreeing. Huzzah for semi-agreement!
Slim–I like your thought of 3 PG in the first 6 rounds. I might have to try it. Have you thought about Calderon late mid-rounds and possibly Collison even later? I think those are going to be 2 lower round PGs that could return top 50-60 value (Yahoo). I’ve seen some rankings that have Calderon in the 90’s–a steal IMO. I’ve been tossing around the idea of getting 2 top PGs in the first 5 rounds, then one of those 2 guys late, then spending an early round pick on a top SG like Monta, Kobe or Batum (who will get you plus dimes out of the SG spot). I just can’t decide whether to hold on a SG (assuming I don’t get one in the first round) or draft one early. I’ve been leaning towards taking a top SG early (round 3)–and maybe making sure I get Calderon in round 7, or either Collison or Beverley in round 8-10. Where do you see yourself taking a SG?
@Jim: Haha well I’ll let Slim answer too, but Collison and Calderon we’ve talked about a ton – both guys we really like. Totally agree Calderon there would be a steal, he’ll be mid 60s most likely for me with Collison a couple spots later. Beverley is someone I’m not drafting tho.
Oh yeah! I had typed that up a couple days ago and never posted it! Then I see the flood of Calderon/Collison talk. Can I try to sell you on my thoughts on Beverely?! I think he was absolutely overrated last year–I got torched by rolling the dice with him on multiple occasions–in fact, I dropped IT3 for him before the season started when I found out PB was starting and IT3 was the backup PG in SAC. By Christmas, I vowed to never say the name Patrick Beverely again. BUT…he’s another year more comfortable in the offense, motivated by being cut by Team USA, Lin is out of the picture and he might get a few of Parsons’ shots–and he’s a PG who qualifies for SG I believe. He also shot 44% after the break. If he could find a way to up his assists by even 1.5 a game, you’d have 2012-13 George Hill with twice the steals. Hill was top 50 that year I think?? Am I selling you!?
Who’s your top SG target, JB? Are you reaching for Kobe–because I’m going to have a tough time not doing that–maybe it’s just because I’m old school. If I’m crazy, call me on it. I just think Kobe is one of those warrior-minded guys who has it in his head to prove the doubters wrong. 20-5-5 is too good to not take a chance on in round 3 or 4. The consequence would be missing out on the Mass PG Exodus in the 3rd round. That’s a sizable risk!
@Jim: Ah gotcha! They’re definitely two buzzy guys for us here!
Haha, damn that sucks you missed on IT2! Although it def was not a shocking move at that time. Unfortunately, I don’t see the scoring or dimes really coming up, even with Lin gone. I think Harden is going to be an absolute ball hog. Maybe marginally in both, but not seeing 4 dimes. I have a feeling I’ll be lower on PBev than most, which is ironic after fighting for him so much last year…
I’ve got Kobe mid-40s. I totally agree with you he has a big season to prove it. But age, injury issues, I couldn’t quite get him that high. I think his ADP will be all over the place with some “newbie” skew who get him too early, but I bet mid-40s he falls to me in a lot of drafts. Other SG targets – Gordon Hayward I still like and Slim does too, I like Wesley Matthews who is underrated, DeRozan I’m still a fan of, and think Lance Stephenson could be pretty good. Oh, Rodney Stuckey should be really interesting late.
@Jim: Yeah we’ve gone back and forth a couple of times with Calderon. 90’s is where I would probably be looking to take him (8th round in a 12er just to make sure) but I do agree with everyone that he’s one of the top PGs after round 5. I like Collison a little more due to the steals and I might be on an island here but I like him to actually top Calderon in assists, or at least tie him. I’ve got Collison probably a round earlier than Calderon, late 70’s maybe.
Ideally I would use a PG at SG. Curry, Dragic, Bledsoe, Kyrie will take care of it early and we can still look for PGs later. JB and I both have Kobe and Monte somewhere in the 4th. I assume that means I won’t get Kobe cause someone will probably take him much earlier. I’m not projecting any more than 4th round value I think and there’s no shortage of risk. Monte is nice and safe. I don’t mind him in the 4th at all. Comparatively speaking though I would rather have Gordon Hayward at least a round later or maybe even another of my favorites Oladipo. 2 guys JB and I have in the 40’s that I think might be available into the 60’s. Batum is OK, leaving a fair amount of points on the table. Me and JB both have him after the main PG run which we both don’t want to miss. I would be surprised if Batum makes it on my team.
Beverley is one of my favorite players but he’s earned the moniker ‘better real life player than fantasy asset’. I can’t put him in the top 100 but I don’t think anyone else will either. I’m looking at maybe 125ish. Definitely in the top 150 but I’m with JB, I have a tough time seeing too much improvement offensively. Some for sure, especially if Harden constantly gets doubled (he should be). But still I see him more as a glue guy for a fantasy team lacking in steals or short on PGs.
@Slim: YOU’RE ALL ALONE ON AN ISLAND! Haha just kidding, I think dimes will be close too, I just like Calderon’s fluke/BS ones to put him over the edge. I think late 60s-early 70s I’ll have both.
Agree on everything SG. You like Hayward a little more than I do, I think Wesley Matthews is a really safe, underrated guy for the microscopic TOs.
Def on PBev – great in real life, not a guy I want in fantasy. He’ll chip in steals and threes, but so little and inconsistent it’ll be tough to consistently roster him even in 12ers.
Love the discussion. In an 8 CAT league, do you weight the CATs in helping you decide two players who play different positions and thus provide different CATS? If so, could you please prioritize the 8 CATS from 1-8 and explain the rationale for your order? Thanks.
Oh, and finding talk about fantasy hoops in AUGUST makes me feel like a li’l kitten with a new bag of catnip.
@Frank: Thanks for dropping by!
So I don’t really have a good 100% answer for you for all 8 cats. But I will say, in drafts, 3-pointers (assuming 8-cat is taking out TO) is by far the least important cat I pay attention to. Usually whomever I get will have enough treys, then I can stream threes week-to-week (also assuming H2H league – but even in roto you can stream a spot). There’s just so many three point specialists on the wire that you can pickup on light-schedule days. For example, I recommended C.J. Miles as a pickup for one game and he hit like 8 threes I think it was. Not to gloat! But that’s why I termed the word ThrAGNOF! Threes ain’t got no face.
Second lowest is probably rebounds, and tied for third points/FG%. But then all the other cats start having about equal importance – FT% (one bad apple screws you), AST, STL, BLK.
Glad we’re jumping the gun, we’re pumped here too man!
@Frank: There’s 2 categories I favor over all others… Assists and Blocks. The reasoning is that they tend to be the 2 hardest to find on waivers, and I think it isn’t close. Next up is Steals and FG%. High end steals are usually only a handful of guys so you tend to need one or two of them to have an advantage week to week. FG% is also tough to find on waivers. Mostly because waiver pickups don’t tend to be high volume shooters which is what you need to really improve FG%. Usually improving FG% is done with a trade. Next up for me is boards. Not too difficult to find but waiver guys that help a lot don’t tend to do much else (Reggie Evans). The last 3 categories are FT%, Points, and 3PTM. I consider all 3 to be the ThraGNoF categories. 3pt specialists tend to score decent points and tend to be good FT shooters, and since there tends to be plenty of these types I put less emphasis on those categories (Mmm… Timmy Hardaway Jr).
Thanks for the insight. Our league is 8 CAT roto and last season I decided to punt FT% and picked up both D12 and DeAndre Jordan.(Thinking my last place in FT% would be balanced with a good finish in FG%, REBs & BLKs). Unfortunately P.George’s late season swoon and a silly trade for Kemba W. cost me a couple of places in FG% and I ended in 2d place. The question is, does punting a CAT in roto ever make sense or is it a fool’s errand to think the pain you get in the one CAT can be made up by strengthening performance in the other seven CATS?
@Frank: It’s definitely not a fool’s errand, but I’m never a punter. And one thing that doesn’t help, is that in 8-cat, it’s even fewer categories to make it up. In say a 12 or 14 CAT, yeah I’ll punt a CAT because you don’t feel it as hard. At least with D12 or DJ, you’re gonna be low either way so might as well go all in.
@Slim: like your comment.
I’m on board with that + the “little” reach for Wall/Westbrook in the 1st round as a consequence, so as to be sure to get an elite PG, if you can’t secure a top6pick.
I would disagree slightly on the importance of the PTS category. I had bad experience in the past, when I drafted BPA (overall value BBM) in the first 3rounds, and I did not secure enough points… then I struggle (especially in roto) the rest of the season… you can find some Pts & 3s & FTs on the waiver, but hard to fight still with the leaders and no consistency usually on those WW pick ups.
@Pada: In roto every category gets much closer together for importance. I definitely tend to focus on H2H, I just find it more enjoyable to play, especially in March/April. So yeah, for Roto I’d rank em a little different and closer together.
@Slim: Do you have any roto rankings listed anywhere?
@kenny kelly: Nah I tend to focus far more on H2H for draft prep. I’m not sure I would rank things too differently though. During the draft I would just try to focus more on keeping each category as even as I could.
The biggest difference I think that would make a guy go up or down in ranking would be the 2 percents. In H2H those categories have far more volatility, tougher to predict, so I put less importance on them. Over the course of the entire year in roto they become easier to predict and I’m pretty sure far more difficult to make up ground in.
Hi, next question would be related to punting:
1. where/when do you consider going for a FT% punt in both ROTO & H2H in competitive leagues? I generally see the 1st team starting to punt in end round 1 in H2H…. and round 3 in ROTO…your call?
=> this year, in H2H I may be tempted to take Drummond maybe at the turn with a Ibaka pairing or redundant? I guess I would still start a team with the top6 (+Wall+Westy+Carmelo) and not sure about Cousins, Ibaka, Love… you?
2. would you target Dummond as n°1 for FT% punt or the lack of points would still lead you to Howard?
@Pada: In H2H I have a lot less of an issue with bad FT% since it only takes one category most of the time. In Roto, it sinks you so much harder. You only are playing one team in the other cats vs. playing the field in the other cats. I obviously still love the Ibaka, but a reach for Drummond I’m not too against. I have him mid-30s though – but that’s well above DeAnre and Dwight. Yeah I’d target Drummond first, he takes much fewer FTs – while Dwight takes such a high volume of FTs that it hurts you that much more.
@Pada: H2H. I’ve been looking for where to punt FT% and there’s 2 places I see. The 1st I mentioned a couple comments above this, Cousins/Millsap and Drummond or Jordan late 3rd/Early 4th. Then Howard not before the 6th… in a 12er. So 36ish for Drummond/DeAndre, I really shouldn’t be calling him just Jordan for multiple reasons. 60ish for Howard. This seems
The 2nd place I see is LeBron. Maybe Blake falls. A high end assist wing and big might make up for the lack of a PG cause early 3rd is gonna be Drummond/Jordan, dang it I did it again. 4th needs to be a PG and in this build I would love for that to be MCW! 5th can be Howard but we still need PGs. So LeBron. Griffin. Drummond/DeAndre. MCW. Howard. How about that build? Only gonna happen if Blake falls in your lap late in the 2nd. Gimme your thoughts too JB. I’m also debating Drummond as a late 2nd rounder with LeBron if deciding to punt FT%. Pairing Drummond with DeAndre so early is going to leave us short a fair amount of points.
I know we are a little worried about DeAndre and I do think he loses some minutes (and stats) but with punting FTs I think he’s still a 3rd rounder with 10 boards and 2 blocks still feeling like a floor.
@Slim: LeBron Blake would def be a good one. All of these play back into your worry about not having PG depth though. Drummond even punting FT in the 2nd seems high. And agree, DeAndre Drummond leaves pts on the table, but you can make those up.
So LeBron/Griffin (but probably would be taken earlier)/Drummond/DeAndre/MCW/Howard – then you’d def need like Collison then Calderon after that. I’ve never been a FT punter so I’m not loving it, but that’s just my opine since I’m not huge on DeAndre and def want a better guard in there earlier on.
Next up… the 14 through 18 bigs… and Dirk.
I’m leaving Millsap out because I think we are in agreement that he’s ahead of all of the 2nd round bigs. OK… there’s a lot going on so I’m going to take it in reverse draft order based off our 1st round grades.
#12 we’re picking Cousins. Who do we pair with Cousins? Millsap, moving right along.
#11 Melo, Unless we are punting FG% I would like to avoid Aldridge. Melo is high end points with low end stl/blk (for a 1st rounder). With him I like either Jefferson or Horford.
#10 Westbrook. Once again unless we plan on punting FG% I want to avoid Aldridge (Although this isn’t a bad option). Pretty much the same as Melo. I’d prefer Jefferson or Horford.
#9 Wall. See Westbrook
#8 Love. The biggest thing here is that we are lacking in FG% and blocks from a big. I think we could punt Blocks here and go with Dirk as the 1st option and Griffin as the 2nd. Griffin should make up the FG% and hopefully with Love the FT% should be OK. But… If Jefferson or Horford falls I like them better. If Aldridge falls we could punt FG% here too. Lots of options but they pretty much all favor punting a category.
#7 Ibaka. Tough one… Do I take whichever of these that are left? Yeah I think so. We’re looking for points and that’s about it. I like Dirk with Ibaka quite a bit but we will be seriously lacking in steals which I don’t like to punt. Not a big deal. We’ll find some steals with our wings later. I don’t mind Blake here either. Aldridge works too but I’m not thrilled about it.
Ok so based off that mess I’ve got it in this order…
#13 Millsap, Jefferson, Horford, Dirk, Griffin, Aldridge.
I’ll think about it some more but that’s where I’m at at 8:00 in the morning… Last thing. Melo, Wall, Westy with Dirk, Griffin? I’m not all that excited by the lack of blocks. These are definitely not my ideal pairings.
@Slim: Millsap Cousins! Man I’d love that start…
Agree with Melo pairing. And with the PG pairings, either big would be nice with both.
With Love, you could always get Dirk then take one of the non-FT guys (Drummond, DeAndre) since both Dirk and Love are fairly high volume FT. More LOve than Dirk, but ya know.
I just think Aldridge’s underrated multi-cat make him a higher pick. I think that’s really our main disagreement is where to slot him. I don’t think his FG% is that rough and it goes up a point or two even with his high-volume mid-range.
@JB Gilpin: hi guys, working on your ranks & projections, I agree with you on the turn with Cousins/Millsap or Ibaka/Millsap (I feel owners cautious with lack of points of Ibaka), but the more I think about it, the more I find it a mess to be competitive in AST….. by picking 10-12 this year, you can miss : Curry, Paul, Wall, Westy in 1st rd, then Lawson, Conley, Lillard, Irving, Dragic? in the PG run at the beginning of round 3, meaning you’re way fXXXX late in this category…. your FT% does not smell good either….
I’m gonna work on that simulation, but yes, your ideas are welcome for how to catch back, esp. in root, because maybe in H2H, it could be the year of a AST punt??.
@padara: Well I’m still standing by my Calderon as an AST boost late. Even if he is at 6 like everyone seems to think, that’s a good dimer late. Rubio should be there in the 30s too… Well Ibaka is a pretty good FT shooter, esp. compared to the other high volume blockers. By getting him early, you have a good shot to win FT% again the Drummond/Dwight/DeAndre teams while competing in blocks.
I’ve never been a punter in fantasy hoops, so if I did go that route, I’d get a lot of upside PGs later. Colly, Calderon, maybe even a flyer on Jameer Nelson with my last pick. Picks like that
@padara: I’ve never punted assists. I’m sure it’s possible and I would focus on a few low TO guys. If I’m going to lose assists I better win turnovers. The FT% for Cousins/Millsap is off to a bad start but it’s not impossible to work with. Especially since it’s essentially from 2 bigs and we should be up to 20+boards and 2.5+blocks per from the pair.
I think late 3rd/early 4th will have some PGs left on the board. They aren’t as reliable of course but Jrue, Kemba, Rubio, Rose (but I’m passing), MCW should still be around. Since the next pick isn’t until 60ish I would want to get 2 PGs before that point and hopefully one with high upside assist numbers. Good spot for Rubio I think. This is a tough build but I think it’s doable and the counting stats would be off to a great start.
@Slim: Jrue! I love Jrue this year, he’ll be a great value. If somehow all those PGs are gone, I still think Jrue is in that class and undervalued
@JB Gilpin: I think Jrue is a risky pick. Tyreke Evans came on pretty well last year. There’s definitely risk that Tyreke takes a fair amount of PG duties leaving Jrue without the good assist numbers we’re both hoping for. Brow is the #1 option, I think Gordon and Tyreke are offensive options 2 and 3 leaving Jrue as potentially an afterthought. I don’t want to believe it’s going to happen, just saying the potential is there.
@Slim: Ehhhh, I dunno, I like Tyreke a lot too and agree he can facilitate, but he really only took over point duties when Brian Roberts was starting. Because Brian Roberts is terrible. I agree he’s not a primary option, but he’ll be facilitating to those guys so could get a career high in dimes like we saw in his final full month last year.
@JB Gilpin: I think we’re higher on Jrue than most. I just think there’s a fair amount of risk. December was a good month for Jrue and you know Tyreke wasn’t too bad then either. They could coexist. So yeah the risk is worth the reward, I’m good with that.
@Slim: I CONVINCED SLIM, DROP THE CONFETTI, POP THE CHAMPAGNE, ITS PARTY TIMEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Hey guys, loving the early rankings! I followed your rankings and advice all the way from Australia last year and it led me to winning the league I’m a part of- so thanks Slim & JB.
We’ve got a keeper rule that’s a bit different, you can nominate a keeper but only after the 1st round. When your keeper is ‘drafted’ by another team, you forfeit your next pick to keep them. This really favours the last pick in the draft because if they take pick 12 and 13 and they have a player that is expected to go early 2nd- they only lose a late third rounder to keep them.
3 of my ’14 championship team will go in the top 6 picks so I’ve got Millsap, Drummo or Kobe to keep. My plan was always to keep Drummo, draft D12/Deandre/Rondo, and punt ft% as I have a little bit of a man crush on him.
My league will have 6-7 roster spots plus 4-5bench and 10 or 12 coaches.
Is there any draft position where you would consider keeping Drummo over (I assume your mancrush) Millsap? If I get pick 10-12 (assuming Wall and Westy are gone) in the lottery is it worth taking a Lillard with 13-15 so I don’t get three talls?
It’s late here so I may have carried on a fair bit. Keep up the good work! (Loving the podcast!)
*9 cat, weekly h2h, locked line-ups
*if I get pick 10-12 I would be hoping Millsap slips beyond my 2nd pick and I get Millsap as a keeper because it would only cost me a late third round pick which is great value.
If I were to have pick 6-8 though I would assume he would go just before my second rounder- meaning not great value for the pick and I could possibly get better ‘value’ in nabbing Drummo late. My fantasy bball mind is working way too hard for August.
@Richo: Awesome, thanks man!
Whew, this sounds like some Jedi mind tricks kind of draft! But I think I follow. I think if you got Drummond kept, I like the FT punt.
But yes, I would keep Millsap over Drummond. Both I have ahead of Kobe, but Millsap’s multi-cat is right there at elite. I have no problem with Lillard around 15 if you grabbed MIllsap and need a PG to start building around your backcourt. You’re passing on just a couple of bigs and not going too far off my ranks.
Yeah if Millsap gets past you and you get him with 3rd round value, that’s a huge steal. Well, I have a feeling we here at Razzball are going to be way high on Millsap, I could indeed see him slip behind you. Depends on your leaguemates and if they read us too 🙂
Thanks for droppin by, and we’ve got a Pod coming out tomo!
@JB Gilpin: Thanks, we got the idea for our keeper rule from the draft in Aussie rules football- that’s what they do when players in the draft have fathers who played for a club- the club can choose to forfeit their next pick and ‘keep’ the son.
Thanks, Millsap was never in my mind as a keeper until you had him so high. The only way I could see myself not keeping him now is if someone picks him 1-2 spots before my second round pick. If I can get him with a third or late 2nd I will. The keeper rule also means Millsap is more likely to be the first pick in the second round because most players that are chosen with pick 13 will be kept by other teams lowering the options.
I’m now dreaming of a Brow/LBJ/Harden to pair with Millsap.
@Richo: Hahaha, really?! That sounds ridiculous! And confusing! Crazy, you guys down under rock, love it.
Whewwwwww, Brow and Millsap?! That’s be a nasty start. Hope he makes it to ya!
Can we talk a little about Brandon Jennings or should we call him BJ because he suck ballz last year in Detroit.
Where do yo rank him this year and where would you rank him if you were punting his terruble .373FG%. If you punt his FG% in BBM he goes from finishing with 10rnd value to 4th value last year. Im thinking he would be a major steal in my draft if I dont reach for him ….. ESPN has him listed going 8th round but what do they know? lol
Last years stats
.373/.751/1.9/15.5/3.1/7.6/1.3/0.1/2.7 : 34
@Boom Shakalaka: Haha BJ indeed! Dude, for the longest time in middle school, morons thought it was so funny calling me BJ instead of JB. Sooooooooooooooooooo original.
I haven’t ranked him yet, and I’m into the 50s. If you’re punting FG%, yeah I’d reach for him a bit, but his FT % fell, had some absolutely horrific slumps… He won’t end up on any of my teams. I remember he was being considered near-droppable at points. Haha I disagree with a lot of ESPN, but 8th or 9th round sounds about right. I’m taking Collison and Calderon ahead of him for example.
Thanks for stoppin by!
I have Jennings in my team last year w/ Brow-my 1st rd pick(last pick),Dirk, Westbrook,Bledsoe,Beal, Drummond, Korver,Caroll, De andre, Howard(via trade for D Rose-my 2nd rd pick). Its a 10 team league H2H. Punt FT, TO. I ended up still winning always in FG(tnx w/ my great bigs). Jennings is a great assist,steals,3s-thats it for him. Ended up champs for that league. Thanks for de andre(last pick) howard trade, and injured westbrook who fells in 4th,ist pick.
@Marl: Yeah Westbrook was a great value last year. I worry Jennings isn’t going to get the big dimes this year though, especially since I don’t see 34 minutes either.
Agree! Can KJ Mcdaniels hit 1-1.5 3s a gm(upside)? with a 25 min. playing time .
Keep it up JB and Slim. Your far better than yahoo/espn. Great Job for all
your ranking analysis!
Can I drop Avery Bradley to get KJ Mcdaniels?
I have westbrook ,calderon, g hill and j nelson as PG with only Wesly Mathews, and Green(GS) as wings.
My Bigs are:
Favors (via J Parker trade)
What are my needs JB and Slim to win our Yahoo Winner League 1902.
@Boom Shakalaka: I’m pretty sure I’ll rank him so low he won’t make it on my team. I like to punt FG% but Jennings could very well lose some playing time and I don’t punt playing time! After listening to the Pistons guy (@JoeDexter) on the Pod I’m backing away even further. There’s just too great a chance Jennings struggles and Stan Van turns the PG spot into a timeshare with Augustin. I’m with JB. He’s after Collison, Calderon.
@Slim: Yeah the Pod was great, Van Gundy sounds like a big rotations guy and Augustin could get more run than we previously thought as Slim said:
He’s dangerously close to out of the top 100 now.
@JB Gilpin: Is Augustin a keeper in the REL for $1? If we assume 20 min then I’m starting to think yes.
@Slim: Yup I think he is now too. I’m keeping Cory Joseph haha. But Joseph can do this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiJCEB8_Beg
@JB Gilpin: Cory Joseph is awesome. I felt for a while there I was all alone in that thinking. Here’s to hoping he can get some minutes at the 2. I think he, like Reggie Jackson, could start for over half the teams in the league at PG.
@Slim: I like him a lot too and no Patty could give up some decent early season run. Will make my top 200, but a lot of iffy guys once you get past 150.
So we’re through 18… Next up I’m taking Kawhi Leonard with either Curry or Paul giving Kawhi a top 20 ranking.
Based off our rankings the run of bigs will be over at #18 and lets assume we drafted one of the top 2 PGs in Stephen Curry or Chris Paul. We’re about to have 2 picks pretty quickly and then a long wait till we get another in the mid-to-late 40’s. At that point there should be some bigs available, Favors, DeAndre, Pau, BroPez so missing a big in the top 3 picks shouldn’t set us back too much in their categories. However at that point the options at PG have all but dried up. Now I like Collison and Calderon to be solid #3 PGs, but if I have to make them #2 PGs then that’s going to leave us way behind in PG stats and digging through the Lins, Burkes, and Beverleys of the world hoping for a miracle. One of those would be fine, but if we need 2 to fill out our 4 PG minimum we’re probably never going to win assists even with a top guy like Chris Paul.
So now that we’ve decided we want a PG in either the late 2nd or early 3rd round which do we prefer? If we go with a PG in the 2nd then Kawhi probably disappears before our 3rd round pick leaving us choosing between Batum, Bosh, or Vucevic. It’s OK but for my money I’d rather take Kawhi in the 2nd and still be left with a few options for an early 3rd round PG. Like I said before this is going to leave us short on bigs but I feel like the options for bigs in the 4th/5th round is going to be vastly superior to the options for PGs.
Finally there is one more option… Skipping the wing player all together and going with 2 PGs and 2 Bigs in the 1st 4 rounds. This is probably going to be the ideal option. There are tons of good wings in the 5th/6th rounds and we would have no worries about position for the rest of the draft. Unfortunately without one of the bigs in our top 18 we are left with solid, yet unspectacular options in Bosh or Vucevic. Since I think Kawhi has a much greater chance of returning 1st round value I’m going to be willing to take the risk of not getting a big in the 1st 3 rounds to get him.
@Slim: Yeah and I really don’t think my rank is too far off then, you’re saying you’re reaching to be sure to secure Kawhi which I might do as well. Like I mentioned on the Pod, someone is gonna take someone weird early and throw off what drafts normally look like. What if Ibaka is still on the board?
Agree with bigs/pg thru 4. We both aren’t big on the wings. I agree Kawhi has a bigger chance for 1st round value and why I have him ranked higher, but say it was a 22 team draft and I would get those PGs first. I dunno if that logic works, but kinda how i felt v. Kyrie/Dragic
@JB Gilpin: Yeah I guess in a really deep league I would take the PGs ahead of Kawhi, well not Kyrie, but there are several PGs that would be more important.
There’s always outliers and if they fall that’s great but my draft day plan can’t take that into account. If someone throws me off my plan cause they are too good to pass up then I will make adjustments to the plan when the time comes. But I feel like going into the draft with some pairings I know I would like is still ideal. Pairings is the last thing I want to be thinking about on draft day. I want that to be predetermined, at least 95% predetermined. Oh and when I say pairings I’m strictly talking about the 1st 2 rounds. After that the plan turns into something resembling a flow chart, with multiple ‘branches’. It gets pretty complicated around the 5th/6th rounds.
So something like this…
3a. Dragic 3b. Lillard 3c Kyrie
4a1.Favors 4a2. Jordan 4a3. BroLo 4a4. Pau
4b1.Favors 4b2. BroLo 4b3. Pau
5a1a.Parsons 5a1b.Hayward 5a2c Thad
etc etc etc… Much easier with a pencil and paper. Confused yet? I’m not saying that’s right. I’m not to this point yet but this is what I like to go into a draft with. It’s a plan with many contingencies (less contingencies late because I know who I want). If I fall off my path its usually pretty easy to get back on.
@Slim: Haha all the branches off a flow chart sounds like how he explains time travel in Back to the Future! Which actually is kinda true in a way. Well I’d be throwing you off with my Noel rank! Hah! Glad we both love him.
I think just my overall immersion into ranks and everything makes me just wing it on draft day. I know my ranks, I know who I like, and I’ll know my needs after my first pairing. Ibaka+Millsap = filet mignon and a nice red. Talk about a pairing!
@JB Gilpin: Not bad… it’s no Locksley and Bagel. Now there’s a pairing that can’t miss! Ahh Mel Brooks. All other comedians wish they could be as funny as him.
Yeah, we’ll see if you take Noel in the 5th. I think the main thing here is that I don’t think anyone is considering him that high. I think. But umm, yeah I’m not high on winging drafts, or drafting wings high. Damn you Mel Brooks, you’ve got me speaking in puns. But yeah, you take your Noel in the 5th (assuming you need defensive stats) and I’ll take Faried (assuming I need everything else).
@Slim: Mel Brooks indeed, so many classics. Sounds good, I’m pumped I’m getting Noel in leagues v you!
@JB Gilpin: This one was supposed to be about Kawhi. Oh well, next up is the dozen or so PGs. Think that might get it’s own post though.
Hey guys loving the early ranks, you’re the only site kickin right now for the upcoming season.
My question is going back to the importance of categories in drafts: my league is an auction league with your regular 8 cat plus field goals missed and double doubles. Field goals missed kind of goes along with FG%, but I noticed last year the double doubles held way more value than I anticipated. With that being said, would it deter you from getting guys like BroLo and Marc Gasol and pay more attention to the Love’s of the world?
Appreciate the feedback.
@Ryan Perkins: Thanks man! That’s why we’re jumpong the gun, everyone else is lazy! But making it tough for comparisons haha 🙂
INteresting… Field goals missed… Played in a lot of different leagues but never that cat! Haha. But that combined with dubdubs means shoot up the bigs. Umm, I don’t think BroLo gets too much of a negative boost because his FG% should be so high that he’s a big plus (or well, not a negative haha) in FG missed. Gasol on the other hand, yeah I would probably avoid since he’s shooting a lot of mid range now and not boarding.
All the boring guys in 9-cat that are dubdub threats def shoot way up. Tristan Thompson, Zach Randolph… guys like that.
Any time man, thanks for dropping by!
@Ryan Perkins: Yeah, what he said. Except for Tristan. but Randolph I don’t know. Someone like David Lee is big time. Faried or Monroe. Guys who usually fall down draft boards for their lack of blocks don’t fall nearly as far with those categories. I don’t think there’s too much movement for PGs. Rubio looks scary from the FG front but he’s gonna give a ton of dub-dubs and the volume shouldn’t hurt too much.
BroPez and MGasol are interesting but with those categories they definitely both move down a bit in the rankings. Love is OK but honestly I think Jefferson might top him with those settings. It’s close. Love is a big that hurts FG% and should get more misses than big Al. Will he get more dub-dubs than Jefferson, probably but it should be pretty close. I think it’s really neck and neck between those 2 with those settings.
@Slim: @Ryan Perkins: Totally agree there, yeah move Big Al up. Since it’s now 10 cat, FT%has a little less importance and it favors those FT drainers a little more since the big 3 D’s are boarders too/good FG%. Move up Dwight, DeAndre and Drummond.
keep up the good work guys. loving the addition of the podcast as well, lots of info in the debates, bring more people in to discuss maybe? but it might get a bit messy, i dunno
one question: i don’t understand why lillard is at 19. i had him last year and although fun to watch, kind of killed me in fg%. also steals and assists low for a PG ranked that high. sort of 1 dimensional other than consistency.
also loving slim’s drafting strategies in the comments section btw, i hope razzball remains a secret
@Patrick: Thanks man! We did one with Pete Nice in too, but it’s mostly our crazy schedules keeping us from having a full house.
The metrics seem to like Lillard pretty well, with a 17 overall finish on BBMonster. The FG% was his worst cat, but with the low TOs (2.4) with the high-volume treys and decent assists always boost in their matric’s value. Seems like low TOs with 3s boosts your value a lot. I think he’s worth that kind of pick though with the safety.
Well, we don’t wanna be TOO much of a secret haha, but glad we’re starting early!
@JB Gilpin: yeah that’s a selfish hope. fair enough. looking forward to the complete list, discussions, shuffle arounds, and the beginning of the season
@Patrick: Me too man, we’ll see about having the full house on sometime soon!
@Patrick: Lillard isn’t the prototypical pass 1st PG but he’s probably going to be 2nd in points and 2nd in 3s for all PGs (behind Curry). He’s one of the best FT shooters in the game and the 5 attempts was a pretty good volume. The assists and steals bum me out too but I feel like he’s young enough that he should still be able to develop more to this part of his game. Not missing a single game for his 1st 2 years is definitely something I put value in too. If we were drafting based strictly off last years numbers then Lillard probably should be a few spots down but out of that big mess of 2nd/3rd round PGs I feel like Lillard has the most upside.
Usings your rankings I did my own personal Mock draft by myself… so sad. lol
Whats the good and the bad you see from this team? 10 team H2H 2 keepers. Mine are West and Lawson.
6 1 IBAKA
15 2 LILLARD
26 3 VUCEVIC
35 4 RWESTBROOK
46 5 NOEL
55 6 Ty Lawson
66 7 Teague
75 8 Calderon
77 9 WEST
86 10 T.HARRIS
95 11 M.MORRIS
106 12 SULLENGER
@DICK BAVETTA: Haha not sad at all! I’m loving every single thing about that team. Should destroy all cats and maybe you have a lot of TOs, but I think you should be favored in every other cat most weeks. I might pass on Tobias Harris, but other than that, yeah everyone you drafted are guys I like. Love the high Noel pick!
I just cant get enough of Tobias Harris I must just like saying the name…. say it with me “TOE-BY-ASSSS” awkware moment.
What dont you like about him? I had him last year and ya he flopped pretty hard but I think it all had something to do with his high ankle sprain. After the season news came out saying he was dealing with the injury even when he came back and that’s why his 3, STL and BLKS all went below than one a game. BUT his %’s both went up he was like 80% from the line and shot 5 a game i think.
Dont sleep on Tobias he gunna do what was expected of him and i would be suprised of he became a 1+ guy you always talk about. Final ADP for the year im saying TOP 60 guy making him a steal.
I dont see him playing any less than 30 mins a game and
@DICK BAVETTA: Haha def love his name. And loved him last year! Agree a lot of his dud-ness came from the ankle sprain, but bringing in Frye and then drafting Aaron Gordon just shows a non-commitment to Tobias. I think the minutes crunch will be rough. I think he is actually under 30
@DICK BAVETTA: Looks pretty solid. I don’t think the 5th PG is too necessary. A few more boards would be nice. So yeah if one of those PGs was a big I’d like it a little better. I lurve me some Markieff this year. I was begging JB to throw him in the top 75 but he wouldn’t do it. The projection I gave him just looks silly.
I remember him alway being in on the cusp of picking him off the wire last year and I’m in a 10 team league so he making some noise last year. Now that Channing Tatum is gone I see a nice bump in minutes and touchs for Marieff Morris.
In my league the only positions we have are G F C. Is the 5th point gaurd still too much. I grabbed Jose cause I thought id be getting crushed on 3pts with out him. Which PG would you want to change if and for what big?
@DICK BAVETTA: Nah with those settings I’m good with Calderon since he’s only your 5th guard.
I like Tobias this year too… at that price. I have him right on that top 75 border. If he’s around in the 80’s i’ll have a tough time passing. I like Markieff a little better. I feel like he has less competition for playing time.
Gonna be strange watching the NBA this year and not seeing Bavetta.
@Slim: Yeah I’ll def have Kieff over Tobias. Tobias might not make top 100, he’ll be at the end, I don’t like the minutes outlook
@JB Gilpin: Y! has plenty of funky pre-draft rankings but Markieff at 134 is just plain silly. Tobias at 96 feels about right.
And you’re going to love this one… Noel is up to 47! So… how come your so down on Noel this year? I kid but come on. That is way too high to call him any kind of sleeper. There’s no way I’m taking him in the 4th. Favors at 65 is laughable. Him I will take in the 4th…
@Slim: Yikes on both Kieff and Noel! Noel even ahead of Favors doesn’t make much sense, much less 20 picks?! Friggin Yahoo ruining our ranks!
JB & Slim…I’m back from my hiatus and have been catching up on all of your posts/comments. Great stuff per usual. I have a quick question for the two of you to chime in on. I’m in a keeper league where you get to keep 10/year and end up having a 15-man roster after the draft and cut-off date. Seeing that each team retains 2/3rd’s or their roster each year, there’s a premium on drafting rookies (i.e., all are in the draft pool in addition to each team’s cuts).
I lucked out and ended up getting the #4 overall pick in this years upcoming draft. Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins will undoubtedly go #1 and #2, but I would be able to select Dante Exum, Julius Randle or Marcus Smart (my next three favorites) at the 4th slot. My current ten keepers are young and legit (e.g., Walker, Oladipo, Jackson, Batum, DeRozan, Leonard, Drummond, Jordan, Sullinger and Sanders), but I’ve been getting hit up with offers for the 4th pick. Without getting into additional details involved in the aforementioned offers, what it boils down to is whether Nerlens Noel or Derrick Favors is worth swapping the 4th pick for? I like both players and wouldn’t mind keeping either instead of Reggie Jackson or Larry Sanders, but just wanted to see what you both thought.
Many thanks as always.
@Peter Nincompoop: Thanks so much man! Damn, good roster so far! Favors and Noel should be much better than who you’d be getting at pick 4, so I think I would trade that to get Favors, but then you’re so heavy on bigs that I think you can afford to trade one of em. Maybe flip Favors for a guard post draft. And yeah, I’ll be lower on R-Jax than most, I would let him go and maybe Sanders you can flip after a hot start too. I hope that somewhat helps! Haha
@Peter Nincompoop: Yep, I would take either for the 4th round pick. In a dynasty I think Reggie is untouchable, especially considering you’re already a little short on PGs. It looks like he won’t sign an extension with OKC which means he’ll be a RFA next year. I could certainly see him getting a nice payday and a starting PG job next year. For me this comes down to Sullinger vs Sanders. Jordan plus Drummond is a solid start to blocks but I don’t think it’s too much better than middle of the pack. I’m also not a big believer in Sullinger. I don’t see much more than an average talent. So I would take the trade for either (Favors 1st) and stick with the 4 bigs of Drummond, DeAndre, Sanders, Favors. I also don’t think Randle deserves to be in the conversation for 4th pick. For your team I think Elfrid Payton would be my top choice if the trade falls through. I wouldn’t be thinking anymore about rebuilding either. This team is definitely good enough to compete now.
@Slim: Thanks guys. I’ll let you know if the Favors deal ends up getting done.
@Peter Nincompoop: Yeah actually, I’m with @Slim: re: RJax. Big dynasty upside, and 10 keepers is big enough to hold. Sullinger seems the drop too. Semi-oversight. Good luck getting Favors man!
Haha greatest Always Sunny homage I’ve seen yet. Tip of the cap to you, sir
have you made some rankings simulations? if I plug Slim’s projections for J.Parker & A.Wiggins, I get roughly top80-85 for Wiggins, top90-95 only for Parker….?
I have not yet listened to the last podcast, but your rankings seem high reach for both with little hope for the value to beat the draft position.
@padara: A couple of things… 1st I made my projections having no idea where JB had these guys ranked. So the rankings compared to the projections are going to be off, also this is just a 1st iteration of the ranks and of the projections. Things will change. Also I think JB has these 2 ranked much higher than I do, I’m more in the 70’s for both. 2nd my projections don’t really take into account the upside for more. You’ll notice I only put 30 minutes for both, JB thinks 34 minutes for Parker. It doesn’t seem like a lot but if you prorate my numbers with the extra minutes I bet the increase in rank would be significant. And finally, I absolutely think taking Parker in the 4th round is a reach. I do not believe he comes in as the #1 option on that team. I think Knight is still the top outside threat, I think Antetok is going to be a monster, Henson and Ilyasova should see good minutes, Middleton should get some run. So conservatively 80’s/90s feels reasonable. But the upside for top 50ish is going to keep their draft day price tag really high.
I bet my numbers for Faried puts him in the 50’s and JB has him in the 70’s. These things will happen. As we discuss it though guys will go up and down, numbers will change. Like JB has already said he thinks he’s got Faried a touch too low.
@Slim: I’m with you here! I made some simulations and yes, they become top50 with 36minutes. it’s strange as they’re right in the same range with the same minutes but different stats!
where do you have the Greak ranked?
last question: would you trade in a keeper league (3/4yrs hold) Parker or Wiggins for Cousins? Where do you see these young guys in 3years for example? top20? top10?
@padara: Nice. That makes me feel all smart and stuff…
I currently have Antetok at 79. Y! predraft has him at 111. So I’m hoping to steal him in the 8th/9th round I think. I haven’t projected him yet, I’m interested in seeing how he does for the Greek team. I thought he looked like a different player in summer league. I was impressed with his aggression and ability to finish at the rim and of course his length for steals and blocks is amazing. His jumper is still a work in progress but looked much better already, especially from 3-pt range. 1/1/1 3s/stls/blks, absolutely. 12-14 points I think. 6 boards and 2 assists feel low. His numbers are going to look really really good.
Yes I would trade one of them for Cousins (assuming I get to keep Cousins for 3/4 years too). Next year I think they both are in the top 50. In 2 years I think Jabari is going to push for top 30 and Wiggins should be pushing top 20. I don’t think Jabari hits 1st round value due to a lack of defensive stats and I think Wiggins needs to improve his shooting a significant amount to be a 1st round pick. Both could and if I was betting on one or the other I would bet on Wiggins. Cousins should maintain his borderline top 10 value for the next 3 years, I wouldn’t be worried about that at all.
@padara: @Slim: Pssshhhh Slim you know you’re smart! I’m the dumb one with Parker too high 🙂
Wow, 79th for the Greek? I know he’ll be top 100 for me, so we actually aren’t as far off on him as I thought. For me re: Parker, I think Giannis doesn’t flourish offensively as much as Slim, but a ton of value in blocks/steals and overall multi-catness.
Totally agree, yeah I’d want Cousins. I think it’s a long way out to think either will be top 10 guys, I agree with Slim, Wiggins has a better shot but will take a while. Needs the team to fit around him in a few years.
Thanks for droppin by man!
I don’t really understand why Carmelo Anthony doesn’t get more love on the draft board. I have him ranked #7 on my list just after James Harden. I understand that last year Carmelo’s rebs and blocks got inflated by injuries to key front court players which resulted in an overall rank of 7 in 9 cat leagues last year, but everyone has to remember that even in 2012-13 with his rebs and blocks down, Carmelo still finished with an overall rank of 8. Both years he ranked higher than your MAN Serge Ibaka! This year, with the SF position kind of thin, and Carmelo’s huge out of position points/3ptm at the PF spot, he deserves a higher ranking! 11 is waaay too low for a proven top-8 commodity the last 2 years!
@cooler83: That’s a really good question with only minimal defense that I have haha. Big thing is exactly what you mention with the REB/BLK spike, and sometimes his value gets weighted differently according to however rankings are calculated. For example, basketball monster which I use a lot had Melo 21st with a 0.27 value (however their system works) in 12-13 and it hopped to 7th/0.69 last year, while Ibaka in 12-13 was 7th/0.47 and 9th/(0.59). That was in total-value which skewed Melo in 12-13, but still, Ibaka finished better then almost dead even last year. I indeed think the boards and blocks coming down brings him down to high teens in their rankings and Ibaka sometimes gets overlooked because he brings a scarcer stat. And he’s still developing and young which I like. I think both will bring in good stats, but I love starting my squads with Ibaka!
Ya I was looking at Melo’s per game rankings in 2012-13 9-cat and he was ranked 8th whereas Ibaka was ranked 11th. To be fair, I expect to see something around the 2012-13 Melo since I agree that his rebs/blks were inflated. Just hard to justify picking Ibaka over Melo since Melo outperformed Ibaka in per game rankings 2 straight years in both yahoo and bballmonster rankings.
Another thing with Ibaka is that by picking up a guy 1st round that is not a big scorer forces you to draft points in the later rounds, where it is more difficult to get a scorer other than a Derozan-like player in the 4th-5th rounds. In my experience with mock drafts this year, there are tons of big men in the later rounds that you can pick up for blocks if you miss out on Ibaka early (e.g. Rolo, Gortat, Duncan, Hibbert, Favors etc.). I just find that whenever I mock-draft Ibaka early, my teams are always low on points. That, combined with Melo’s historical per game value has me sold on Melo at #7. Although I like Ibaka at #8!! Lol….
@cooler83: Oh for sure, definitely falls into “you can make stats say anything you want” using per-game or total value to back up thoughts. While I like most of those later bigs too, Ibaka has youth and more upside on top of more blocks putting him worth the high pick for me. I typically put little weight on points and find I get those late in drafts or through early pickups. I don’t mind Melo 7 if Ibaka is 8 for you though! Haha thanks for droppin by
@cooler83: Yeah I find points to be much easier to find than blocks or assists (why I would take Wall/Westbrook over Melo) and JB and I both think there’s room for Ibaka to still improve on his numbers (ditto for Wall/Westy).
As for those later picks… RoLo’s value comes mostly from his low TOs and 2 percents. The 1.7 blocks were nice but I think represent the high end and it’s almost half of what Ibaka does. Gortat is OK but he has a lengthy injury history and huts FT%. Duncan is going to get the minutes crunch and probable rest late in the year. In H2H I don’t want him at all. Hibbert is impossible to trust. Someone will take him within the 1st 100 picks but it won’t be me. He lost minutes last year and that could absolutely be the case this year. Hibbert was droppable at the end of the year. I’m way off Hibbert unless I really fubar my bigs. We love Favors but I have a feeling we won’t be the only ones. I think there will be some serious competition to draft him.
I guess the big thing for me is that I feel like missing on a wing just isn’t that big of a deal, at least compared to missing on the 15 pts/ 2+ blocks bigs or the 20 Pts/8+ ast PGs. I have found that those are far more difficult to replace.
I have a question for you guys. This situation came up recently in one of my mock drafts and I was wondering what everyone’s thoughts were. I get 10th overall pick in a 12 man roto league. I get Ibaka in the 1st rd and Al Jefferson in the 2nd round. I was hoping to get Wall or Westbrook but they were already taken by the time it was my turn to pick in the 1st round. By the time it comes back to me in the 3rd round, I definitely want to draft a PG. Problem is, Millsap is still available and I know how much you guys love him. I end up drafting Conley since he was the best available. If it was up to you, would you draft a PG knowing that a high ranked big man was available? Also, by the time it came to me in the 4th rd, I was looking to draft another PG since I know Conley is not really a high assist guy comparatively. My best option was Jrue Holiday, but the problem was that Nikola Vucevic was still available. I ultimately decided that Vucevic’s value was too much to pass in the 4th round. Overall my draft went ok after. I ended up grabbing Teague in the 5th rd, and Calderon in the 7th rd to shore up my PGs. Wondering what your thoughts were and what you would do in my position!
@cooler83: Love the pair of bigs early! I think the answer is a little bit of feel and just how much someone you love falls down in drafts. If Millsap is there in the 3rd, I think I’m getting him no matter what. Even though he’s another PF to your Cs, he hits some 3s and at least is multi-cat. I probably woulda grabbed him instead of Conley. So say you did that and got MIllsap, I would’ve gotten Jrue in the 4th then. I think I have him about 10 spots later than Vuc, but a guy I like 13th avail in the third (like Millsap) I think I have to get, but mid-3rd to mid-4th I think I would’ve gotten Jrue for roster comp. But since you got Conley 3rd, I indeed think I woulda gotten Vuc there too. You still got nice PGs and I think I would love that team either way with the big twin towers!
Hey @jb Gilpin and @slim, I had a quick question: seeing that I’ll be playing in a 7-team 12 cat L, how much change would there be in your, say, top 20 list, taking into account the extra cats? Would someone like kawhi crack the list with his great a/to and %s?
@Lasandro: Whewwww, good question… Yeah I think Kawhi does move up since he’s going to rock all those cats. Maybe 17-18 or something? I still think I’d want most of those elite PF/C I have in the 2nd. Kawhi the multi-cat god!
how come it is until top 75? i thought updated to top 200 already 🙂
@poponuts: Haha unfortunately real life and opening RCL Leagues and all the hooplah slowed me down, 75 will be out today/tomorrow then rounding out top 200 by next week. Sorry for the delay!
@poponuts: I mean, 75-100 out tomorrow 🙂 Thanks for droppin by!
Hey JB, Slim
On what exact grounds do you put A. Davis above S. Curry? Not worried by his 60-sth-game seasons and/or the addition of Jrue/Asik/RAnderson to take the points/rebs/touches away from The Brow? Seems to me Steph is a safer bet for no2 as his stats may remain quite intact with a possibility to go up. I don’t see Davis being in such a beast mode as in March.
Also can’t see Vucevic being THAT high, as well as making it reasonable to draft any rookie before 50th pick. But maybe that’s me being burned at potential many times 😉 Keep up the work guys!
@dadilemma: Yo dude! Well, the main grounds is Davis was pretty far and away a better per-game player last year over Curry. Curry tied for 4th with LeBron, but there was a decent gap. Plus the Brow is so young and the offensive game continues to develop. Gonna be a monster. Not worried about the supporting cast taking any sort of value, I actually think Asik helps so the Brow isn’t banging with Cs as often.
I’m huge on Vuc, he’s pretty underrated as he gives you good %s, a steal and a block from a big, and great boards. Having a perimeter threat in Frye is gonna help him down low.
Parker… Yeah I got nothing haha. I’m usually not huge on rookies and don’t think I am on any others, as last year I think Oladipo was the only one to crack my top 100 in the late 90s. Everything looks great for Parker to have a big year on a crappy team. I think it’s gonna happen.
Thanks so much man, appreciate ya droppin’ by!
@dadilemma: I’m not too worried about the supporting cast either. They all know the Brow is the best player on the team and I agree about Asik. I think Brow playing more PF and less C is only going to help him stay healthy. As for health, we were saying very similar things about Curry a few years ago and my take on him is the same as my take on the Brow now. He’s too young to give him an ‘injury prone’ label. There’s 2 reports I’ve heard that I really like. 1) That he’s working on a corner 3-pointer. 2) That he’s put on 20 pounds. Added weight should help him get pushed around less and an added 3-pt shot would put his per-game ranking well ahead of Curry. Is Curry safer? 6 of 1, half a dozen of the other I think.
I like Vucevic too and I think he’s 1b to Chris Boshs’ 1a.
I don’t have either rookie top 50 either but I think both are going to get drafted in the 5th round in a 12er (top 60) so if I want Wiggins or Parker that bad then that’s where I’m going to need to take one. I’m up in the air about whether or not I would draft either in the 5th round in a 12er, it depends on a lot of different things.
Hey guys, any advice for auction drafts? It’s my first year doing one and I’m having a hard time valuing players. Do you think it’s worth paying up for top 5 players? (12 team $200 budget btw)
Did a mock draft and ended up with this team:
1. Anthony Davis (NO – PF,C) $77
2. Paul Millsap (Atl – PF,C) $30
3. Nikola Vucevic (Orl – PF,C) $24
4. Chandler Parsons (Dal – SF,PF) $19
5. Victor Oladipo (Orl – PG,SG) $13
6. DeMar DeRozan (Tor – SG,SF) $12
7. Pau Gasol (Chi – PF,C) $8
8. George Hill (Ind – PG,SG) $3
9. David Lee (GS – PF,C) $4
10. Kevin Martin (Min – SG,SF) $4
11. Darren Collison (Sac – PG) $2
12. Taj Gibson (Chi – PF,C) $1
13. Tyreke Evans (NO – SG,SF) $2
I feel like I waited too long for a PG. Any thoughts? Thanks!
@Henry: Hey man! My main advice is spend big on an elite guy, which you did. I usually wait until I’ve gotten through my top 200 to get my Auction values hammered out, but the elite guys tend to be undervalued. David Lee at $4?! Great value, but yeah if you were managing that team, I’d trade boards for a PG. Agree that team needs PG help in the worst way – even though I like Oladipo a ton, Hill is fine, and I love Collison, all 3 aren’t big volume dimers. Steals are also rough. I like the value you got everyone at, maybe a little pricey on Parsons even though I like him a lot, but nice work on the mock!
my league is starting soon! I need the top 200 (c’mon mates!) haha just kidding. make it happen though 😉
@poponuts: It’s happening right now! And not just saying that! And after doing some number crunching, John Henson is up to 101 and I wish I had him in the 90s haha. 150 will be either mostly done tomorrow or up tomorrow, and all done by this week for league domination!
@JB Gilpin: @JB Gilpin: thanks mate! glad to hear that. no pressure 😉
Can Sanders and Henson co-exist? With my extensive knowledge of Milwaukee (they wear green right?), they seem like the same player to me. I’m tempted to take a late flyer on Henson and just cross my fingers (read: wait) for Sanders to do something stupid.
@Richo: I actually think they can, and Henson is up to 101 and will keep moving up if this news holds he’ll start. As a starter last year he was baller! Just needs the minutes and if he gets em, will be a great late round flyer.
Henson was a steal last year, and will be this year. Hopefully word doesn’t get out till it’s too late lol
@Khang: Yup he’s shooting up my draft board and I regret not having him top 100!
Just wondering, are you going to post Slim’s projections for top 150?
Also, I’ve been trying to go with PGs as my strategy in mock drafts. I’m trying to win FT%, 3s, asts, stls and pts. This is one team I got using this strategy with the 4th pick (10 team H2H):
4. Monta Ellis
7. David West
8. Markieff Morris
9. Geroge Hill
10. T. Jones
11. Alec Burks
13. Jordan Hill
@Rob: Yup! Finishing that up now, just got 150 done in the full post form late last night, so putting it together this afternoon. We’ll have this pot with projections through top 200.
Love heavy PG strategy. Unreal Millsap value! Looks like you’ll lose blocks, but I think you actually got enough boards in there to fight for the rest of cats. Probably losing TO most weeks too, but I really like that team, a lot of guys I like late. I’d be scared facing them!
@Rob: There it is!
First of all, love the site and I appreciate the time you put into it.
Are these rankings based on head-to-head or rotisserie? Also, are you open to critiquing my current rotisserie rankings?
@kenny kelly: Thanks so much man! They’re on H2H. Which I know should make Dwight Howard higher, but he sucks! And I don’t punt haha. Sure, it might be hard to go through a whole rankings, maybe first few rounds and your big sleepers/busts past that?
I’m not expecting you to take a ton of time to look this over, but if you can just quickly identify the rotisserie rankings that are way off base that would be awesome.
1. Kevin Durant
2. Anthony Davis
3. LeBron James
4. Stephen Curry
5. Chris Paul
6. James Harden
7. Carmelo Anthony
8. John Wall
9. Russell Westbrook
10. DeMarcus Cousins
11. Serge Ibaka
12. Kevin Love
13. LaMarcus Aldridge
14. Al Jefferson
15. Damian Lillard
16. Dirk Nowitzki
17. Blake Griffin
18. Kyrie Irving
19. Kyle Lowry
20. Goran Dragic
21. Chris Bosh
22. Paul Millsap
23. Kawhi Leonard
24. Al Horford
25. Nicolas Batum
26. Ty Lawson
27. Joakim Noah
28. Mike Conley
29. Marc Gasol
30. Rajon Rondo
31. Andre Drummond
32. Rudy Gay
33. Nikola Vucevic
34. Brook Lopez
35. Jrue Holiday
36. Ricky Rubio
37. Kemba Walker
38. Derrick Rose
39. Kobe Bryant
40. Eric Bledsoe
41. Victor Oladipo
42. Deron Williams
43. DeAndre Jordan
44. Chandler Parsons
45. Wesley Matthews
46. Klay Thompson
47. Monta Ellis
48. Gordon Hayward
49. Thaddeus Young
50. Dwight Howard
@kenny kelly: I probably wouldn’t have Dwight top 50 unless the roto cats go deeper than 10 cats. That FT drain in roto means you have to be so good everywhere else to make up for it… Just not touching him. Love you have Dragic high too! Drummond I think should go up a little since his FT drain is so low volume, I think I need to move him up too, buzz is crazy on him. Probably would move Klay up above Matthews (I know only 1 spot) since roto 3s are more important than H2H. I’m not touching Deron Williams in almost any leagues, but that’s just me. Overall, looks pretty close to where I’d have everyone! Nice work!
Just to follow up. Here’s how I ended up after my draft. Anything good or bad stick out? Thanks.
1. (5) Stephen Curry PG,SG
2. (20) Blake Griffin PF,C
3. (29) Chris Bosh PF,C
4. (44) Eric Bledsoe PG,SG
5. (53) Chandler Parsons SF,PF
6. (68) Derrick Favors PF,C
7. (77) Kyle Korver SG,SF
8. (92) Darren Collison PG
9. (101) J.J. Redick SG
10. (116) Terrence Jones SF,PF
11. (125) Giannis Antetokounmpo SG,SF
12. (140) John Henson PF,C
13. (149) Rodney Stuckey PG,SG
Hey JB n Slim,
I’ve been doing some mocks and I’ve been seeing some real draft values based on you ADP’s and would your take on it. I’m in a 10 team keeper league drafting GGG FFF C UTL UTL UTL BNC BNC. My keepers are Westbrook in the 4th and Lawson in the 6th. Since I already have two elite PG’s Im wondering which of these value picks would you tareget if you already new ud have westbrook in the 4th and lawson in the 6th. I find myself jumping all over Millsap and M.Gasol but I feel like they dont mesh well with Lawson and Westbrook….. What would your strategy be?
101-110 Gina Anet…….???
@Boom Shakalaka: I think Millsap will be fine, btu yeah I’d rather Vuc with those PG for high volume boards. Def get Favors! MCW lasting as long as he is in drafts is crazy to me. He should fit well with ya. Markieff and Anteok look good, Terrence Jones is solid there late too. I’m with ya, target the upside bigs with one more PG like MCW, so loving your thoughts first two picks. Probably passing on Calderon and Collison since they’re a little less upside.
Lets say I have a late 1st round pick and grad Wall and couldnt get MCW. Who would look to taret in the 7th round?
@Boom Shakalaka: If Favors is somehow there he’s one, Gordon Hayward is lasting that long, I think I’ve got an interesting few guys in my top 70 that should be avail
@Boom Shakalaka: I think every one of those is a steal where you think you can get them. Since we never know in the real draft I’ll add another to your list. I’d like to add Faried in the 60s. Just as much potential as Favors and I like him a little more than Pau Gasol even just for this year. Faried in the 7th has keeper potential if he does live up to my lofty expectations.
The only other thing I’m thinking is trying to figure out the order of those last 3 picks. There’s a way to get all 3… I’m not sure what it is, yet.
Hi JB n Slim,
i was wondering why you put Terence Ross so low? Jodie Meeks is 98th while Ross is 140, but the two have incredibly similar stat line predictions. Plus Ross has more upside and doesn’t have KCP competing for minutes. if there’s a reason why u put Ross so low, plz tell me! just wondering if it’s okay for me to draft him a bit earlier.
@JungMin: Great question, I think it’s a mix of me not liking Ross and Slim like him above adp. He’s got Ross for a steal a game that sounds about right, but Meeks at only 1.1 after 1.4 last year and I think in a defensive centric team he can get to 1.7ish. That’s my big difference plus I think Meeks is guaranteed for 30 mins one way or another while Ross could really lose PT like he did in stretches last year.
@JungMin: Yeah I don’t think Meeks’ steals carry over. Could be an outlier and I think there’s a legitimate fight for minutes that Meeks could loose. That’s pretty easy to put a number on. Ross is turning 23 and is far more athletic than Meeks. He got his 1st taste of real minutes last year and if he takes the next step he could easily outproduce Meeks this year with the same amount of minutes. It’s tough to put a number on ‘upside’ for a projection.
I don’t mind Ross earlier than 140. It’s an upside gamble though. He could be your 1st drop or he could lead the league in 3s.
@Slim: Thanks guys! got ross a bit earlier, like i said and passed up on meeks……hope it pays!
@JungMin: While I don’t think he’ll lead the league in 3s 🙂 @Slim: , no question Ross has more upside. I just don’t see it translating this year yet on that team. Definitely see Meeks as safer, but for a last roster spot, no problem taking the lotto ticket.
Hey guys, had my draft today. Thanks heaps for your work over the last few months- hope the podcasts pick up again now that’s done 🙂 I had pick 5 in a 14 teamer.
4) Drummond (keeper)
I’m definitely short in big men but I just kept getting value guards and wings. Tried to make up with it reaching for Henson but I’ll be ok with the way our roster is organised.
Wanted Beard so bad but couldn’t turn down Curry at 5, he’ll definitely be PG/SG in ESPN yeah?
Can’t wait to send/receive stupid trade offers!
@Richo: It’s about 8 hours after the draft and I’ve just realised I can call my team ‘Kawhi U Jrue Dis?’ Hahaha, way too proud of myself.
@Richo: thanks man! Yeah we had a busy week with all the rankings def podding it up next week! NASTY value on Millsap and Drum, dirty team. Ummm Curry might only be PG only not sure, they use a completely different criteria. He should be but you never know, they’re stricter with dual elig. Hahaha nice team name better use that as your logo!
I’ll be real dirty on choosing Curry over the beard if Curry isn’t SG.. I wanted Beard heaps more, felt really sad when noone took Curry and I had to
@Richo: Really light on the boards, but Millsap and Drummond are good value picks. Good overall.
My league roster is:
I’ve got a lot of SG/SF players (Kawhi, Wiggins, Giannis, Draymond, KCP) which gives me flexibility. I need Millsap and Drummo to hold down the PF and C slots with only Henson as a back up.
I figure if I play those dual position wing players in the SG and G slots I will make up for rebounds. Giannis and Kawhi could get 6 each which is great for guards.
@Richo: Giannis is gonna pull a Big O and average a trip dub this year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@JB Gilpin: I’m not 100% sure but if we were doing an all-time fantasy draft I think I’m probably taking Oscar Robertson 1st overall.
But yeah I agree with these guys. Another big would be good. I think KCP is redundant since you’re already so high in steals. I’d drop him for an upside PF/C.
@Slim: I dunno, the Wilt Chamberlain years would be really tough to pass up. 50/25.7/2.4 hahahahahaha. Crazy thinking about those stats these days.
@JB Gilpin: Definitely Wilt! Didn’t he average a triple double for a season because he was sick of people calling him a ball hog? They didn’t take defensicve stats, but apparently he had 11 blocks in his debut game too
@Richo: I don’t think this is so obivous… this is before 3s, steals, blocks were kept track of but it’s obvious Oscar would win 3s and Steals, Wilt takes blocks.
Wilt Career – .540/.511/30.1/22.9/4.4
Oscar Career – .485/.838/25.7/7.5/9.5
Are you really punting FT% if there’s only 5 categories? Wilts FTs is on 11.4 attempts per game. It’s punted no matter who you add with him.
Wilt got up to 8.6 APG as a career high. Oscar averaged a triple double once and came really close 3 other times. Wilt played less than 40 games in a season 3 times. Oscar never.
@Richo: @Slim: Wow, I’m definitely not a hoops historian, I didn’t realize Wilt was that brutal at the FT line!
Haha, I had no idea fantasy basketball in our little game would only be 5 cats 🙂 But yeah, if it was you’d have to avoid Wilt probably.
Still, in today’s game with 9 cats and imagining crazy blocks, I’d probably take the upside of Wilt. Where’s George Mikan?! Did Jim Thorpe ever play basketball!?!?!?! Haha
I had a real nice draft, 4th pick in a 12 teamer and got
round1: KD(crazy value….nobody wanted him smh)
2: Chris Bosh
3: Al Horford
4: Jrue Holiday
5: Victor Oladipo
6: Derrick Favors
7: Jose Calderon
8: Roy Hibbert(for the blocks….)
9: Markieff Morris
10: Elfrid Payton
11: Mario Chalmers
12: Terrence Ross
13: Draymond Green
I’m a bit short on boards(hoping Bosh goes back to his toronto days), but the real problem is the lack of SG depth on my squad. Oladipo and Ross are the only players who are eligible. i should have picked more SGs but i just couldn’t pass on Payton with the 117th pick and Chalmers with the 124th…..too much value, especially with LeBron gone…. do you guys think any of these guys are going to become SG eligible? or should i try to trade one of my PGs for a SG? if so who should i target?
@JungMin: oh yeah, FYI it’s a 9-cat head to head league
@JungMin: Haha, wow – yeah I would have no worries about a team drafting 4th and getting KD. I actually think you’re gonna be fine on boards, I do agree on SG depth though. Rookies on Yahoo always start with one position, so I could see Elfird getting it since he and Victor run the combo guards there. Chalmers I don’t think will. I’d probably just roll with that line-up for now, def not dropping anyone, and keep an eye on the wire, a SG will emerge early on. I bet Stuckey went undrafted I like him a lot, Jarrett Jack could surprise in BKN for some undrafted names to maybe star
@JB Gilpin: defnitely will do! thanks for the fast reply!
@JungMin: That looks like a real good draft. 3 people really passed on Durant? That’s pretty stupid… Bosh there is OK, I don’t think his boards go up all that much. Of course Horford that late more than makes up for it. I like Jrue and Oladipo there. Favors in the 6th is unreal. I’ve seen it far too much. Calderon is just fine as a #3 PG plus Durant almost gives PG level assists. I’m not sure you needed a big shotblocker like Hibbert. But there’s some upside there and you should have a top 3/4 blocking team. Elfrid at 117 is unreal. Enjoy. I like Chalmers some too this year. I don’t mind that at all. Ross works just fine there and I think Draymond is the next Shawn Marion.
So the only ever so slight negatives would be Hibberts uncertainty, A few boards since Bosh/Hibbert can’t be relied on for 10+ a night, and a slight lack of SG depth. The SG is easy to find on waivers, you will have a choice between several decent ones if Ross doesn’t work out. I think losing a PG for some boards wouldn’t hurt you at all in assists/steals/3s. If you could package Hibbert and Rio/Elfrid for a top 50ish big with at least 1.0 Blocks then I think you would be way ahead of the curve (not a baseball reference). Faried would be my 1st target, especially since Durant makes up for his FT shooting.
If I had to give a number to your draft, it’s easily a 9 outta 10 draft.
@Slim: thanks for the great reply! okay, top 50 big it is!
yo please comment on my team, i think i got good value
7) Brandon Knight
9) Draymond green
13) Marcus Smart
@Patrick: Kinda weak on ast and blocks
@Patrick: Up until Monroe, I’m in love with every one of those picks and you’re gonna dominate. Love Frye late, I have a feeling you’ll be dropping Smart early on, think you got awesome value on Henson. Those top 5 picks are absolutely dirty. Agree, you’re gonna lose AST a lot of weeks, but if Wright and Henson pan out I think you’ll be set. If Monroe went before Favors, I would maybe offer that trade.
@JB Gilpin: ya ppl started to get smart after round 5, favors, markeif, jones, all my potential blockers were taken 🙁 i’ll send a trade offer for more blocks hopefully favors owner will bite
@JB Gilpin: considering im on a 14 team league i’m happy
@JB Gilpin: that do you think of oladipo for favors and terrence jones? the dude with favors drafted him 3rd :/
@Patrick: Ugh that sucks, people are smart drafting so far this year! Hmmm, in a 14 teamer that trade is pretty close… Would mean you’re fully punting Ast, but with a league that deep you get some really good value. But if Favors went in the 3rd round and Oldaipo the 5th, I don’t think he’ll do it!
Please help me with my team. just traded conley/lin/1st round pick for lillard/4th pick. Did I overpay for lillard?
Here’s my final team:
16 Team H2H 9 Cat Dynasty Basketball
PG Damian Lillard
SG Klay Thompson
G Reggie Jackson
SF Lance Stephenson
PF Anthony Davis
F Josh Smith
C Derrick Favors
C Jonas Valanciunas
Util Draymond Green
Util Jordan Hill
BN Nik Stauskas
BN Vince Carter
@Jon: How many keepers does your league allow? What sort of quality of player goes in your first round of the draft?
@Richo: this has been drafted already so most probably the pick is for next year. We have to keep 3(1 under 21) player.. Traded p-bev for my jordan hill. How’s my team now? Thanks
@Jon: Yeah this is a little tough to answer, all depends on what kind of pick that 1st round pick is gonna be. And since you have Stauskas, is it a first round pick next year? So I’ll compare Conley/Lin for Lillard and I like getting Lillard a lot for the youth. As long as the pick swap isn’t going to give the other team a huge value, I think I like it. Hope that helps!
@JB Gilpin: its a 3 keeper league(1 under 21 player). I think giving up first rounder for next year hurts since we only have to keep 3. Anyway, planning to keep lillard, davis and stauskas for nxt year.
Anyway, have traded jordan hill for patrick beverly. Any weakness on my final team? Thanks so much..
@Jon: Aight I got ya, so 3 keepers, meaning Lillard and Davis will be your keepers for next year..Stauskas as your under 21 seems a little light even though I like him… With that under 21 caveat, it’s only the best 32 kept (and maybe a few older guys filter in) so I think you may have slightly overpaid for Lillard, but at least he helps you win now.
Def don’t need the big man stats, like getting PBev a lot there! What I might do is try to buy low on some of the under 21 players like the big 2 rookies – if they start slow or try to get Embiid or Noel (I think he’s 20?) to upgrade that last keeper for next year. Any time!
Finally got a deal done. P Bev/Stauskas for elfrid Payton. Is that a good deal or have overpaid? getting payton will help my assist and steals . And I think Payton will not ruin my FG since he’s not a volume shooter. Any thoughts on this? Thanks.
@Jon: Love it! I know I only have Payton a few ahead of Pbev, but I like the upgrade. Another knock on Payton is back FT shooting too, but your team is very very solid there so I think you’re good!
@JB Gilpin: Thanks JB. You’re a great help. Cheers!
Good Day JB, been reading your posts a lot and it has really help me, especially in understanding/gauging the value of players.
Anyways, I am playing in a 12 CAT (the extra CATs are A/TO Ratio, and Minutes played) in a 10 team league. I would just like to ask your opinion on what I what i did (picked) wrong and what was right, and also what can I do to improve my team?
Here are my picks (in order/by round)
6th pick/1st round = Melo
2nd round = Ibaka
3rd round = Batum
4th round = Vucevic
5th round = MCW
6th round =Beal (might have reached a bit here?)
7th round = Hibbert (needed the blocks since Vucevic doesn’t BLK a lot)
8th round = David West
9th round = Calderon
10th round = Frye
11/12/13/14 = Terrence Jones, Corey Brewer, Miles Plumlee, Draymond Green
@ArchVince: Hello sir, and thanks for stopping by, glad to have ya!
Wow, Minutes played, that’s an interesting one… Safety of Melo def helps there. Unbelievable value on Ibaka too who plays a ton of minutes. Really the only pick I don’t like is Hibbert. The blocks def help, but he could be in a major minutes crunch if last year’s melt down carries over.
Really everyone else looks really good to me! You got great value on Calderon (esp for A/TO) and I love MCW. I think Brewer will get minutes early, but if he starts losing time to Wiggins he will be cuttable early, and same with Miles Plumlee is he struggles. Hope that helps!
I might have overvalued Hibbert a bit (hoping he steps up without George), I really wanted the block badly 😛 Should I have gone for Tyson Chandler instead? By the time I picked up Hibbert, the only available ‘decent’ big men who were starters were Hibbert, Chandler, and Bogut.
Also, are there any areas/CAT where my team seems weak in your opinion? I might consider trading some of players, if so which player should I consider expendable and which player should I be aiming to get?
Thanks for the help again, looks like i’ll be visiting your site very often from now on 🙂
@ArchVince: Yeah big ol Roy is out of my top 100, I’m just too scared. Hoping his time with Kareem this offseason works though! I think it was with Kareem… Anyway, yeah i mighta waited for Chandler or Bogut a few rounds later.
Let’s see, even though I love the Calderon and MCW picks, I think dimes will be a little light for you. Ibaka, Batum, Melo, Vuc – all good boarders so I think David West might be a good sell high if he starts really hot. He’s the Pacers best offense! Haha.
Awesome man, welcome to Razzball Nation!