We’re nearly two full weeks into the NBA season, which can only mean two things:
1. We now have more data with which to evaluate players than we did just a week ago.
2. We still don’t have enough data to form sound judgements on players based on what we’ve seen to date.
This creates a fun and interesting dynamic in leagues, where manages have used the first few games of the season to form strong judgements about players, many of which will shape league altering trades, waiver claims, and more.
The phrase “cooler heads prevail” has a special meaning this time of year in the fantasy basketball season. This is all the more disconcerting because I currently find myself incredibly, irrationally high on a few players who are off to promising starts, and I’m dying to share.
Coincidently, there are also some players about whom I remain rationally low or skeptical of based on their current levels of production. For these players, while their start the season has been great, for one reason or another I am highly doubt they can sustain it. It is important to clarify that does NOT mean I’m out on all of them entirely.
Here we go…
Irrationally High
Nikola Jokic – I don’t care that everyone knows he’s great, I just want to bring attention to the fact that the Joker is currently off to the best start of his career. Not just that, he’s likely off to the best start in the history of fantasy basketball. No, there was no fantasy basketball back when Wilt was scoring 100. We’ll just have to settle for Joker averaging a triple double while shooting at high percentages and accumulating decent stocks (steals + blocks). This is your fantasy GOAT in case anyone thought Wemby was going to steal the torch anytime soon.
Bilal Coulibaly – Coulibaly is all the rage right now. With every passing game and every great performance, the legend grows and the price gets steeper. His leap has been truly awesome to watch, and in dynasty leagues he’s probably just getting started. Buy high in dynasty, enjoy from afar in redrafts. This was the best bargain fantasy drafts this season, assuming he was drafted in your league at all!
Jalen Suggs – I liked Suggs before the Paolo injury. I LOVE him now. Health is always a concern given the scrappy nature of his play, but Suggs is making the leap this season and I’m here for it. You should be too. Suggs has Jalen Williams upside. How’s that for irrationally high?
Jalen Green – I am beyond irrational about Green at this point. To an unhealthy, come exploit me if I’m in your league, kind of level. I’m here for the underpay, the fair pay, AND the overpay. I want to project top 50 value at this point but I’m a bit concerned the shooting percentages won’t be there and am well aware I could just get burned by a hot week of shooting and a tantalizing highlight reel. I don’t even care. Just send me the offer and I’ll accept.
Ivica Zubac – I wasn’t the only one high on Zubac this season and I still think he’s a solid sell high candidate depending on what you can get for him, but it’s clear he’s making a leap. Zubac is doing his best prime Jonas Valenciunas impersonation.
Tyler Herro – Herro ball is here(o) to stay! With Jimmy Butler likely starting his decline, shots and the team will continue to shift towards Herro. Speaking of stay, Herro just needs to finally stay healthy to make the all-star team this year.
Tari Eason – As long as Eason continues to play all-NBA caliber defense and be among the team’s most valuable on-off contributors, he’s going to play for a pretty loaded Rockets team. I think we’re only scratching the surface of what Eason can become as a player, especially if he can stay healthy and continue to log consistent minutes. This is Alex Caruso and Herb Jones level defensive stats with some actual offensive ability and upside.
Alex Sarr– Another defensive dandy! The offense will come and go, but the blocks and steals should be there all year. Sarr is so much better than I ever expected as a rookie. I love his teammates Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George too!
Julian Strawther – Time is running out on one of the absolute best buy-low opportunities in the league. Don’t say I didn’t tell you so! He can flat out shoot it and the Nuggets are desperate for shooting. This kid is gonna be good!
Rationally Low
Victor Wembanyama – Wemby will be the only player on the “rationally low” list who is here not because his production has been unsustainable, but instead because it likely is. Not that Wemby has been bad by any means. In fact, at the time of writing this article he ranks 6th overall on Yahoo’s player rater. However, if you drafted him first overall, as many did, there is no doubt you expected more, particularly in the points category. One only has to watch a couple quarters of Spurs basketball to know that the culprit here is the team’s clunky offense, which does a terrible job of creating space and opportunities for Wemby on that end. That won’t be a forever problem, but it’s likely to remain one this season.
Tyrese Maxey – Maxey currently ranks 3rd in the league in scoring with just over 30 ppg. He is basically carrying fantasy teams and his own team, the 76ers. Unfortunately, I don’t think his current run is sustainable. Not the 30 points or 40 minutes or 25 shots per game. Part of that is for pure basketball reasons (have we seen that kind of load in recent history?) and part has to do with the team getting healthier. Paul George should lessen the load on Maxey a bit and hopefully at some point we’ll see Embiid in games as well. Maxey is awesome, but this current level of awesome is likely unsustainable.
Nikola Vucevic – Vuc is shooting a career high from the field (.552%) and from 3 point range (50%!). At 34 — hell, even at 24 — there’s no way that’s going to last.
Norman Powell – Powell is another guy playing and shooting out of his mind. He will continue to have limitless scoring opportunities as long as Kawhi is out, but that doesn’t mean he’ll always make the most of them. I expect a downturn — especially in efficiency — in the very near future.
R.J. Barrett – Much has always been expected of R.J. He has shown flashes at times of reaching the potential many assumed of him after getting drafted 3rd overall in the 2019 draft. The big question for fantasy owners right now is, are we witnessing another flash or has peak R.J. Barrett finally, fully, arrived? There is definitely a chance he has improved, but what is also certain is his numbers will take a hit when Quickley and Barnes return from injury. I expect some regression AND a reduced role when the Raps are fully healthy, which still leaves room for peak R.J., but just not this version of R.J.
Jordan Poole – Currently ranked 9th on Yahoo, I just can’t get behind a full-fledged Poole breakout. He is shooting the lights out and playing great ball, but he has teased us before. It will take more than a couple weeks for me to buy Poole as anything more than an inconsistent shot-maker, especially after the disasterous season he had last year.
Dennis Schröder – Schröder is another guy who has teased use before. While this might be the year he sticks with a team and keeps his role for the entire season, I remain skeptical that his final numbers will be anywhere close to where they are right now. I drafted him in one league expecting 12-13 ppg and 6-7 assists and nothing about that has changed.
Buddy Hield – He’s off to an incredible start with the Warriors, but he’s also shooting so much better than he ever has — which is saying something considering his prolific shooting career — that you have to believe a big regression is coming. The Klay Thompson role is a proven one in Golden State, but not even prime Klay can shoot the ball like Hield is shooting to start the season.
