Another NBA season is beginning and as usual, for the ninth year in a row, I am here at Razzball to talk fantasy with you fine folks. Keeping up with traditions and as the first article of the year to kick off the draft season, I’ve been doing a review of last year’s projections in order to make this year’s projections better, as well as to identify potential opportunities and hazards in the upcoming draft. If you are interested to learn about the math behind the process and how I calculate the accuracy of the projections, check the initial article and I’d be happy to answer questions in the comments.
Missed Players
Every year in this portion of the article we summarize the players that are categorized as “misses.” These are the players that have a value difference between the projected and the actual value that is above the standard deviation. Again, if you are interested to learn more, check the first article of the review series here. The first line for each player is my projection from last year, while the second is their actual stats for the 2023-24 season, the third is the difference, and finally the fourth is the difference expressed as a percentage of the respective standard deviation.
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 0.80 | 26.34 | 1.1 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 58% | 82% | 3.2 |
| 2024-25 | 1.12 | 29.6 | 2.0 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 58% | 80% | 3.3 |
| Diff | 0.32 | 3.25 | 0.87 | 0.14 | 1.13 | 0.51 | -0.16 | 0% | -2% | 0.09 |
| SD% | 0.12 | -0.47 | -0.15 | -0.95 | -0.46 | 0.36 | -0.70 | -0.94 | -0.78 | -0.90 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 0.64 | 30.874 | 1.3 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1 | 1.6 | 53% | 87% | 3.5 |
| 2024-25 | 0.15 | 23.8 | 1.2 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 44% | 88% | 3.3 |
| Diff | -0.49 | -7.08 | -0.09 | -2.34 | 0.17 | -0.26 | -0.65 | -9% | 1% | -0.24 |
| SD% | 0.74 | 0.17 | -0.91 | -0.10 | -0.92 | -0.31 | 0.24 | 0.26 | -0.87 | -0.72 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous | 0.62 | 29.843 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 52% | 87% | 2.6 |
| 2024-25 | 0.97 | 32.7 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 52% | 90% | 2.4 |
| Diff | 0.35 | 2.84 | 0.84 | -0.11 | -0.21 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0% | 3% | -0.19 |
| SD% | 0.23 | -0.53 | -0.18 | -0.96 | -0.90 | -0.67 | -0.78 | -0.99 | -0.68 | -0.78 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 0.61 | 23.582 | 2.1 | 11.8 | 4 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 47% | 81% | 3.5 |
| 2024-25 | 0.96 | 24.3 | 3.1 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 48% | 84% | 3.2 |
| Diff | 0.35 | 0.68 | 0.99 | -0.80 | -0.35 | -0.27 | 0.13 | 1% | 3% | -0.26 |
| SD% | 0.23 | -0.89 | -0.04 | -0.69 | -0.83 | -0.29 | -0.76 | -0.91 | -0.70 | -0.70 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen | 0.33 | 23.944 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 49% | 88% | 1.6 |
| 2024-25 | -0.06 | 19.0 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 42% | 88% | 1.4 |
| Diff | -0.39 | -4.97 | -0.16 | -2.49 | -0.51 | -0.10 | -0.14 | -7% | 0% | -0.20 |
| SD% | 0.39 | -0.18 | -0.84 | -0.04 | -0.76 | -0.74 | -0.74 | -0.01 | -0.95 | -0.77 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | -0.06 | 17.225 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 43% | 85% | 1.5 |
| 2024-25 | -0.49 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 39% | 85% | 1.2 |
| Diff | -0.42 | -6.62 | -0.78 | -0.38 | -2.19 | -0.52 | -0.08 | -4% | 0% | -0.28 |
| SD% | 0.50 | 0.09 | -0.24 | -0.85 | 0.05 | 0.38 | -0.85 | -0.42 | -0.98 | -0.67 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trayce Jackson-Davis | -0.08 | 11.074 | 0 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 67% | 60% | 1.2 |
| 2024-25 | -0.55 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 58% | 58% | 0.7 |
| Diff | -0.47 | -4.51 | 0.00 | -2.08 | -0.22 | -0.33 | -1.09 | -9% | -2% | -0.47 |
| SD% | 0.68 | -0.26 | -1.00 | -0.20 | -0.89 | -0.13 | 1.07 | 0.38 | -0.75 | -0.45 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kuminga | -0.16 | 16.452 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 52% | 76% | 1.8 |
| 2024-25 | -0.50 | 15.3 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 45% | 67% | 1.5 |
| Diff | -0.34 | -1.15 | 0.18 | -0.68 | -0.59 | -0.09 | -0.15 | -7% | -9% | -0.29 |
| SD% | 0.20 | -0.81 | -0.83 | -0.74 | -0.72 | -0.76 | -0.71 | -0.03 | 0.05 | -0.66 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyson Daniels | -0.17 | 7.74 | 1.1 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 43% | 66% | 1.3 |
| 2024-25 | 0.35 | 14.1 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 49% | 59% | 2.0 |
| Diff | 0.52 | 6.38 | -0.05 | 0.51 | 1.08 | 1.41 | 0.22 | 6% | -7% | 0.74 |
| SD% | 0.84 | 0.05 | -0.95 | -0.80 | -0.48 | 2.73 | -0.57 | -0.07 | -0.23 | -0.14 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | -0.18 | 9.255 | 0.9 | 8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 45% | 77% | 1.4 |
| 2024-25 | 0.24 | 13.6 | 1.1 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 52% | 78% | 2.1 |
| Diff | 0.42 | 4.39 | 0.19 | 1.57 | 1.98 | 0.65 | 0.05 | 7% | 1% | 0.65 |
| SD% | 0.49 | -0.28 | -0.81 | -0.40 | -0.05 | 0.70 | -0.90 | 0.10 | -0.94 | -0.24 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | -0.19 | 21.245 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 45% | 75% | 2.6 |
| 2024-25 | -0.59 | 14.8 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 44% | 63% | 2.2 |
| Diff | -0.40 | -6.41 | -0.82 | -1.11 | -1.66 | -0.05 | -0.31 | -1% | -12% | -0.35 |
| SD% | 0.42 | 0.06 | -0.20 | -0.57 | -0.21 | -0.88 | -0.41 | -0.80 | 0.33 | -0.59 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Fontecchio | -0.20 | 12.753 | 2.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 46% | 81% | 0.9 |
| 2024-25 | -0.66 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 40% | 83% | 0.7 |
| Diff | -0.46 | -6.81 | -1.49 | -1.13 | -0.63 | -0.39 | -0.14 | -6% | 2% | -0.18 |
| SD% | 0.63 | 0.12 | 0.45 | -0.56 | -0.70 | 0.02 | -0.73 | -0.15 | -0.73 | -0.79 |
The percentages highlighted in red represent the stats that I missed on and were greater than the standard deviation. The closer the percentage is to 100, the greater my miss, whereas negative percentages indicate that I succeeded in the prediction. If you see a -100%, you are legally obliged to buy me an authentic Stromile Swift jersey from the 2000s Memphis Grizzles era and send it to my last known address, as this indicates a bullseye prediction with no error. Obviously, I only included in the above array the “missed” players, but I can assure you I did the exact same procedure for the remaining players projected that were classified as “hits”. Some players that stand out from the misses are:
The top dogs: It was a crazy year for the top projected fantasy players as the top 3 guys in Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous and Victor Wembanyama vastly outperformed everyone else. Their difference from the 4th ranked guy (Anthony Davis) was historically large and it is debatable if they can reach the same heights in 2025-26.
Joel Embiid: What a disappointing season to Trust the Process, as big Joel played only 19 games, after playing 39 games the season before. This is a clear trend and he has not looked healthy in ages, so approach him very cautiously in drafts.
Lauri Markkanen: After two excellent seasons in Utah, Lauri had a down year across the board, mainly due to a minutes reduction. He is not a perfect fit in Utah’s rebuild, but a bounce-back is on the cards so there is value in pursuing him in this year’s drafts.
Dyson Daniels: Daniels started the season as a potential starter in Atlanta and ended up as the most improved player in the league, with a terrifying steals average of 3 steals per game, while skyrocketing his usage as a secondary ball handler. His value in the rankings is boosted a lot by the steals, so I wouldn’t reach for him very high in drafts, but he was a league winner last year with an average ADP of 140.
Kyle Kuzma: His trade to Milwaukee midseason was at the time a very questionable move and as it often happens the “If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck.” proverb was confirmed. The above proverb works with “shit” as well.
Conclusions
The whole process concludes with the calculation of the absolute mean difference in value between my projection and the actual stats of the 2024-25 season. As a reminder, the smaller this number, the more accurate the projections. This number by itself does not mean much, but it can be used as a comparison with the accuracy of my projections from the previous years. For reference, this number was 0.156 in 2018, 0.16 in 2019, 0.162 in 2020, 0.149 in 2021, 0.155 in 2022 and 0.133 in both 2023 and 2024.
This year, the magic number is 0.135, a slight but almost insignificant decline compared to 2023 and 2024. Still it is way better than my prediction from the earlier years, so I’m happy overall.
Stay tuned in Razzball for more offseason content and my yearly top156 projections, which should be ready in the coming days !
