Hello hoops fans and welcome to the 2024-2025 NBA season! I’m Maks and I’m excited to share my fantasy hoops insights with you this season here at Razzball.
As with the start of every season, hope springs eternal. Every player — and their trainer — has spent the summer indoctrinating you with countless videos showcasing all the work they put in to prepare for the new season. You’ve seen the improved handle, the improved shot. That’s right, it’s breakout season!
🚨 BEN SIMMONS IN THE LAB 🚨
(🎥 @Cbrickley603 ) pic.twitter.com/dnb1kxofO3
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) September 17, 2024
Well, maybe.
Reality is, pretty much every NBA player has spent the summer in the gym trying to improve their craft. And some guys will undoubtedly improve, while others will not.
This article will shed some light on 4 players I expect to make a big leap this season, based not on training session video — tempting as they may be — but on two prevailing factors:
- Expected increase in role and usage
- Strong shooting indicators from last season
Here’s the formula for you math people out there – EXPANDED ROLE + STRONG SHOOTING INDICATORS = BIG LEAP CANDIDATE.
By big leap, I don’t necessarily mean a jump from obscurity to superstar status or even all-star. I’m talking meaningful improvements that would vault a player from a top 100-200 player ranking to something closer to top 50.
Additionally, here are a couple terms you’ll see me reference frequently in this article:
- Usage – how much offense runs through a player as measured by shots, assists, turnovers, and free throws (ROLE)
- Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) – basically a measure of shooting percentage where three point shooting gets weighted higher to account for the value of 3 points vs 2 (STRONG SHOOTING)
Without further ado, here are 4 players I think are poised for a big leap in the 2024 season:
Player #1 – Andrew Nembhard, Pacers PG/SG (146.14 ADP on Fantrax)
I’m a big believer in the third year leap for young players and Nembhard is entering his third year. One could easily argue Nembhard experienced his leap during last year’s NBA playoffs, particularly in the Eastern Conference finals against the Celtics when the Pacers had to play without star PG Tyrese Halliburton. In the EC finals Nembhard averaged 21 points, 3.8 boards, and 7.8 assists per game. Even prior to that he saw a big uptick in minutes and production during playoff rounds 1 and 2, demonstrating what he is capable of in an expanded role.
Statistically, Nembhard is an excellent shooter, ranking 77th percentile in eFG% last season. His shooting numbers actually improved in the playoffs despite a higher usage, going from 55 percent eFG% to 63 percent eFG% (89th percentile!).
Indiana also invested heavily in Nembhard this off-season, handing him a 3-year, $59M contract extension this past summer, demonstrating a strong commitment to him as one of their key players moving forward. I would certainly expect him to see his minutes increase from 27 mpg to at least 30-31 mpg.
Season Outlook: This all portends to better days for Nembhard and I think he can easily come close to matching his playoff production last season with a projected stat line of 16 points, 1.5 threes, 3 boards, 5 assists, 1.5 steals per game. Those are excellent across the board numbers that would make him an absolute steal at his current ADP.
Player #2 – Jalen Suggs, Magic PG/SG (97.62 ADP)
The general thinking about young players in the league is if they haven’t shown you anything by year three, odds are low they ever will. Fortunately for the Magic and fans of Jalen Suggs, he showed us quite a bit in year three. He was able to shake a considerable amount of bust talk to post a very promising season, taking what can only be considered a meaningful third year leap. There, I mentioned it again. He didn’t experience a massive leap in fantasy terms, but he certainly demonstrated himself to be a relevant fantasy player and at times an impactful one at that. We see that in his current ADP.
Part of Suggs’ leap last season was how much he improved as a shooter. In that regard, his leap was massive. His first two years his average FG and three point percentages were a dreadful sub 40% and sub 30%, respectively. That flipped completely last season when he shot 47% and 39% from the field and from three. His eFG% ranked in the 87th percentile! Suggs now appears to be one of the better shooters in the game. If that trend continues, watch out.
Suggs averaged 27 minutes per game last season. Coming off two years of injuries and poor production, I understand the Magic’s desire to manage his minutes. Last year, Suggs’ per 36 minutes averages were roughly 17 points, 4 boards, 3 assists, 2 steal, and nearly 3 threes per game. That would make him easily a top 50 player for fantasy purposes. I fully expect Suggs’ minutes to increase this season. He played 33 mpg in the playoffs last season and while the Magic did improve at the guard position signing KCP, I fully expect more minutes and an expanded role for Suggs this year.
Season Outlook: With an uptick in minutes and possibly usage, I expect Suggs to post numbers in the range of 17 points, 4 boards, 4 assists, 1.7 steals, and 2.5 threes per game. Those are meaningful improvements on last season which could see him rank within the top 50.
Player #3 – Noah Clowney, Nets PF (152.28 ADP)
Brooklyn is going to stink this year, but that doesn’t mean it won’t make its presence known in fantasy circles. Gone are pretty much all the pieces from two failed attempts to build a contender that could steal the spotlight away from the crosstown Knicks. What’s left is a collection of young players and draft picks who will usher in a new era and yet another rebuild in Brooklyn. Clowney, at the tender age of just 20, stands to be one of the keys to that rebuild, and I fully expect the franchise to give him every opportunity to succeed, starting as early as this season.
Despite playing sparingly (16 mpg in just 23 games) as a rookie, there are a lot of positives for Clowney to build upon in year two. First, Clowney posted an excellent shooting season, not just for a 19 year old, but for anyone on this planet. His eFG% was 91st percentile, shooting 63% from two and a very respectable 37.9% from three. You’d expect the first number from a lanky, young PF prospect, but not the second. His rebounding rates are excellent as well, ranking in the 75th percentile and up. And lastly, his block percentage is off the charts, in the 98th percentile.
Those numbers bode very well for Clowney in year two, especially since there’s no reason for Brooklyn not to increase his playing significantly. With Nic Clayton, Day’Ron Sharpe, and Dorian Finney-Smith all vying for frontline minutes, Brooklyn has other pieces in place that will contend for playing time. But Clowney simply has to play more. Odds are Brooklyn will look to move DFS at some point this season and even with him there developing Clowney will be a huge priority.
Season Outlook: With very strong shooting, rebounding, and blocks rates, Clowney has the chance to be a huge breakout star this year. I probably wouldn’t bet on it all coming together for him given his age and the natural development curve of most young players. However, I expect to see his minutes increase from 16 mpg to roughly 25 mpg and for his numbers to jump to 12 points, 7 boards, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 threes per game, which would give him in easy top 100 status with the potential for more.
In dynasty formats, I expect the big Clowney breakout to come — you guessed it — in year three, so get in early if you can.
Player #4 – Ayo Dosunmu, Bulls SG (155.29 ADP)
Dosunmu was in some ways a third year leap guy last season, making steady progress on a month to month basis. He went from averaging 6.5 ppg in limited playing time at the start of the season to roughly 17 points, 2 threes, 4 boards, 4 assists, and over 1 steal per game in the final month plus. Somehow he’s still flying under the radar. Those are fringe Jalen Williams numbers.
Whether or not he can continue to produce at that level is yet to be seen, but there are two things to keep in mind, and they will sound repetitive because they are:
First, the Bulls are rebuilding, DeMar DeRozen is gone, Zach LaVine is in the doghouse, and there’s really nobody standing in the way of Dosunmu carving out a huge role this season. His usage should be as high if not higher than it was at the end of last season.
Second, Dosunmu can really shoot it. Last season he was 91st percentile in eFG%. He shoots both 2’s and 3’s at very high percentages and has shot it well since entering the league.
Season Outlook: Dosunmu is more than a young player on a bad team benefitting from a coach’s green light and zero accountability. There’s real skill and ability here. Coming into his fourth season at age 24, he has the potential to surpass last year’s end of season numbers. I expect him to have a huge year and wouldn’t be surprised if he averaged 18-20 points, 2.5 threes, 5 boards, 4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Again, those are borderline Jalen Williams numbers that could push him near top 50 status depending on his ability to keep his turnovers in check with the ball in his hands so often.
Those are my picks for players who are poised for a big leap in the 2024-2025 season. Comment below if you agree or disagree.
Next time I will share my deep sleepers list. Thanks for reading!
