Speed kills, kids. Unless you’re playing fantasy basketball. Then you want plenty of it.
Playing the pace game in fantasy hoops will help us gain extra possessions and stats for our box scores. Whether you’re playing head-to-head, roto, or points, those extra opportunities pile up over the course of a week and can give us an added edge in our matchups.
This weekly piece will look at interesting Pace trends and preview the teams with the best pace schedules in the upcoming NBA week.
Week 3 Pace Trends
The Week 2 Pace leaders, the Portland Trail Blazers, dropped all the way to 12th after a mediocre week that continues to raise questions about when is Damian Lillard going to get his game right. Once he is back on track, he and CJ McCollum should have the Blazers (currently 3-5) back in playoff contention in no time.
After their thrilling three-point game on Tuesday, the Rockets and Lakers take the top two spots in Pace, followed closely by the Warriors. If you could find odds on this type of thing, my money would be on one of these three teams leading at the end of the season.
In the latest sign that these are not your grandfather’s Spurs, San Antonio jumped from 15th last season all the way to fifth this year. Dejounte Murray and Derrick White look to be terrific fantasy options the rest of the way.
After about two and a half weeks, there are now just five of last season’s top-10 in Pace that kept up that habit in the first week and a half this year: Rockets (1st), Warriors (3rd), Bucks (6th), and Timberwolves (8th), and Kings (10th). I’ll continue to watch these teams to see if they remain and which others find themselves more consistently in the top ten.
The Philadelphia 76ers, mired in injuries and drama, continue to languish at 30th in Pace, a full 1.4 points behind 29th place Toronto. The 76ers were 12th last season, so this could be a Ben Simmons effect, but I think it’s more about a team that hasn’t been able to put their hopeful starting five on the floor together at all this season.
Positive Pace: Week 3
Below are some teams with the best Pace opportunities in the week ahead. Use this as a guide for players on the waiver wire or filling your bench from teams in good game environments. I will typically trend towards teams with four to five games per week on the positive side and three games on the negative. Each opponents’ Pace rank is in parentheses.
Memphis Grizzlies: MIN (8th), CHA (4th), PHX (9th), @NOP (14th)
I, for one, can not wait to see Ja Morant in this stretch of games next week. He has been playing out of his mind, averaging 27 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 1.9 steals. His usage is 31.7%, which is top-eight in the league. As of last week, Morant was a long-shot MVP candidate at +3300 odds. I bet by the end of next week, those odds look slightly better. His full-on breakout is upon us.
Minnesota Timberwolves: @MEM (19th), @GSW (3rd), @LAL (2nd), @LAC (7th)
Among guards who play at least 25 minutes per night, D’Angelo Russell has the seventh-fastest individual pace in the NBA. Russell is dealing with nagging injuries, so it remains to be seen how that will affect the Timberwolves offense as a whole, particularly their Pace. Patrick Beverley is a full 2.2 possessions per 100 slower than Russell this year, which means a slight hit to Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns if Russell misses significant time.
Negative Pace: Week 3
These are teams, all things being equal, you might want to avoid in the upcoming week. They only play three games and will have their possessions limited by lower-paced teams.
Indiana Pacers: @DEN (24th), @UTAH (15th), PHI (30th)
In addition to the injuries plaguing the Pacers, now they get three of the worst matchups of the week, two of them on the road. The Pacers are off to just a brutal start this year, allowing the second-most points to opponents in the Eastern Conference (111.6). So not only do these look like unappealing fantasy matchups, but they are all games where the Pacers will be heavy underdogs.
Detroit Pistons: @HOU (1st), @CLE (23rd), @TOR (29th)
The week starts out well enough in the Tank Bowl versus the Rockets, but then two more games on the road against two of the slowest teams in the league? No thanks. The Piston somehow play just one game before Friday next week, so in weekly leagues, this may be a team to avoid. Maybe if the games are slowed down a bit it will help Cade Cunningham remember how to shoot? One can only dream.
What To Watch For Next Week
The Washington Wizards finished each of the past three seasons top ten in Pace, including first overall last year. This year, they are sitting down at 17th through eight games. Losing the number one individual pace player in the NBA (Russell Westbrook) can do that do you, but there is a residual effect here. Last season, we used to count on the Wizards for both fast games and lousy defense. It was a fantasy manager’s and DFS player’s dream scenario.
Last year, the Wizards were bottom-10 in defensive efficiency but moved up to 14th so far this year. I’m sure that’s making the Wizards’ coaches and staff happy, but apparently, they do not care about our fantasy teams. It’s significantly impacting Bradley Beal, whose per-36 numbers are the lowest they have been since 2017-2018. There is plenty of time to turn it around, of course, but it’s a trend I will be monitoring moving forward.
