Every season, fantasy managers enter their respective drafts largely focused on the very top. They enter their draft rooms, real or virtual, hoping to land the top pick. They argue both internally and with other league members who they think should go first, second, third, etc. They learn their draft position and rejoice or complain about where they will pick and who will be available at that position. It’s hard not to fixate on the top of the draft as you enter it. It’s where you take the player your team will largely be built around and where your title hopes begin.
I would argue that the NBA is so stacked with superstar talent right now that fantasy leagues aren’t really won at the very top of the draft. Yes, there is a bit of an advantage to having one of the top 4-5 players — and based on the flashes we saw from Wemby last season, he could turn this argument on its head to become the biggest league balance shifter since the days of Shaq — but at the time of writing this article, as long as you don’t totally botch your first pick in a pretty standard 10-12 team league, you’re likely coming out of the draft with at least one superstar caliber player who fills the stat sheet and gives you a chance to win your league.
That means the real work for fantasy managers largely begins outside of the first ten or so picks and it’s the managers who most deftly navigate that terrain who will best position themselves for contention during the fantasy season.
This is the first of a two-part deep dive that focuses on players I think are undervalued, underrated, and have the potential to tilt the scales in fantasy leagues for managers looking for a competitive advantage this season.
Of course, if you read my previous article about the four players I think are likely to make a big leap this season, then you’ll know the players featured here aren’t the only ones who represent value propositions for fantasy managers this season. There is value to be found at the top, middle, and back end of the draft. That article focused on the mid to back end of drafts. This article will focus more on the top.
Here are three highly rated players I think are undervalued, underrated and likely to be massive difference-makers for fantasy teams during the 2024-2025 fantasy hoops season (based on Fantrax ADP):
LaMelo Ball, Hornets PG (20.27 ADP)
Who better to elevate fantasy teams than the guy who claims he’s “not from here” and consistently refers to himself as an extra-terrestrial from outer space? Melo seemed poised to make a giant leap into first round value status each of the previous two seasons, but pesky, reoccurring ankle injuries continued to get in the way.
Part of the blame here likely sits with the Hornets’ health and performance staff, which received a complete overhaul by new team management in the off-season. There have already been reports that players are receiving different treatment plans, including Melo finally wearing braces, which raises hope that he can finally get and stay healthy.
Remember when Steph Curry spent the early part of his career dealing with ankle injuries only to finally get the treatment and management plan needed for him to go on to becoming one of the greatest players we’ve ever seen? Melo is still only 24 years old and there’s plenty of reason to think he can finally shake the dreaded injury bug and maximize his potential to become one of the league’s premier offensive players.
No doubt, the lingering injuries have hurt Melo’s draft standing, but it’s hard to ignore what we’ve seen from him the previous two seasons when he’s been reasonably healthy. Over a 12 game stretch last November, presumably the only time he was remotely healthy all season, Melo averaged 27.3 points, 3.8 threes, 5.3 boards, 8.0 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Those are elite numbers to say the least. He had an amazing three month stretch in 2022-2023 as well, which gives hope and credence to the notion that a healthy Melo is one of the best players in fantasy.
But can he stay healthy? And what impact will a deeper Hornets squad with running mates Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges have on Melo’s production?
I don’t have a magic 8 ball that can predict player health, but I do think the new health and performance staff in Charlotte will give Melo his best chance to finally get and stay healthy. There’s a meaningful change there that supports meaningful optimism.
With regards to his role, this is still Melo’s team. There is no question who the dominant voice and personality is in the Hornets locker room. He has the keys to the franchise and despite a very impressive rookie debut by Brandon Miller, this is still Melo’s show. The ball will start in his hands every possession, he will orchestrate the offense, and the offense will continue to center around him, much in the same way that it does on other NBA rosters where a superstar is surrounded by a good to great supporting cast (not that the Hornets are anywhere close to good or great). Melo will continue to score at a high level and if anything he could and should finish the year with a career high in assists given the improved supporting cast around him.
I think Melo has a chance to produce first round value at a second or perhaps even third round cost, putting him in the same class as Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Halliburton, and the guy who is next on this list, Trae Young.
Needless to say, I’m expecting a massive year out of Melo. No player has the potential to make or break fantasy teams like him. Pairing him with a first round superstar has the potential to give fantasy teams a huge leg up on the competition. It might be a gamble, but it’s a gamble I intend to take this season knowing that the payoff could be league altering.
Trae Young, Hawks PG (11.47 ADP)
I’m putting Trae second here because I think Melo is the biggest wildcard in fantasy basketball this season and he is the player who inspired this article. I’m not ranking players in terms of their bargain potential, so the players below Trae could prove to be bigger bargains based on their current ADP.
Trae is already a late first round pick based on his current ADP, so one could easily argue that there’s not much space between where he projects to be picked and where he reasonably projects to finish at the end of the season. However, the stage appears to be set for Trae to have a career year in 2024-2025 after the team traded DeJounte Murray to the Pelicans for a package centered around Dyson Daniels and a couple first round draft picks during the off-season.
Gone are the days when Trae will have to share the ball with his backcourt mate, or anyone really. The retooling Hawks do have some talented young players on the roster, including Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, Dyson Daniels, and 2024 number one overall pick Zaccherie Risacher. However, none of those players projects to be high volume, high usage shooters or scorers, at least not as soon as this season.
The players most likely to contend with Trae for shots are Johnson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and De’Andre Hunter, but none of those players stand to challenge Trae for shots or usage in the way that Murray did during his time with the Hawks.
It’s no secret that Trae and Murray weren’t a great fit together. If anything, the players on the current roster are very well suited to play with a high usage gunner like Trae. They don’t need the ball in the hands at all times to be happy and effective.
After signing a 5-year, $215M extension his off-season, Trae now clearly holds the keys to the Hawks franchise. After seeing his scoring totals dip the past couple of seasons, it would not surprise me one bit if he eclipsed 30 points per game on average for the first time in his career this season. He’s entering his prime at age 26 and likely to enjoy a career high usage rate given his supporting cast.
As his scoring dipped the past couple of seasons, his assists increased to over 10 a game. If by chance he could maintain his high assist totals while also scoring upwards of 30 points a game — seems counterintuitive, I know, but with a usage this massive, anything is possible; think James Harden with the Rockets — with tons of threes, and over a steal per game, Trae could find himself among the game’s fantasy elite. He’s already so close.
Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers PG/SG (14.58 ADP)
Mitchell might be the most unheralded, under-appreciated superstar in the league. I put him on this list largely because he represents perhaps the biggest bargain in the second round and an opportunity for a fantasy manager to come out of the draft with not just one but two bonafide monsters.
Seriously, stack Mitchell’s 2023-2024 numbers up against everyone above him on virtually any player rater. Of the players consistently going ahead of him in drafts, I would seriously take Mitchell’s stat line over the likes of KD, Sabonis, Curry, Ant, and Halliburton. I also think he and Tatum are much closer statistically than most people realize.
In fact, I would argue that prior to the bone bruise he suffered last March that Mitchell was clearly one of the 7-8 best fantasy players in basketball — averaging roughly 28 points, 3.5 threes, 5.5 boards, 6 assists, and nearly 2 steals per game. Again, stack him up against many of the players ranked ahead of him and his production exceeds or matches many of them across the board.
Now, before you say I’m crazy, let me be clear: I’m not here to convince you to take Mitchell over Jayson Tatum. I’m also not here to convince you to take him in the middle of the first round or in the first round at all. I’m just here to tell you that Mitchell presents managers with a unique opportunity early in the second round of drafts and if he’s available when you’re picking you should absolutely jump at the opportunity to do so. Nobody in the second round offers this level of production, unless Trae somehow slips.
Mitchell is 28, just signed a massive three-year, $150M extension, and is the undisputed leader of the Cavs. It is clear now that Darius Garland will play second fiddle to Mitchell going forward. Yes, Garland was banged up most of last season, but Mitchell has now averaged 28 and nearly 27 points per game each of the past two seasons. It seems clear now that nobody in Cleveland is going to eat into his scoring production, though he could stand to trim 2-3 points from his stat line — in the event someone like Evan Mobley (featured in part 2) takes a step forward — and still produce at an elite level because he does so much across the board, including being one of the league’s best in 3 pointers made and steals.
Again, this the best player regularly getting drafted outside of the first round. This is also one of the few players who is a safe bet to provide first round production outside of the first round. Pass on him at your own peril!
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That’s it for part one. Keep an eye out for part two of this deep dive coming soon!
