The New Orleans Pelicans swung and missed (wait, wrong sport); they fumbled (still not there); they air-balled in their attempt to land an elite point guard in this year’s free agency period, so they now go into the season fully relying on their young and athletic forward combo of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson to get the Big Easy back into the playoffs for just the second time since 2015.
After restricted free agent Lonzo Ball was traded to Chicago for Tomas Satoransky, Garrett Temple, and a pick, New Orleans put bids in for Kyle Lowry and Chris Paul. They were unable to sign either. They eventually settled for a sign-and-trade, bringing in Devonte’ Graham, Jonas Valanciunas, and the draft rights to 2021 17th pick Trey Murphy. What the Pelicans now hope is that Graham can rebound to his 2019-20 production when he finished as a top-75 player despite shooting 38% from the floor.
But this team will only go as far as Ingram and Williamson can take them. Both finished as top-70 fantasy assets last year, and both fantasy and real-life NBA fans will be looking for each of them to take another leap in 2021-22. Let’s dive into New Orleans and see what kind of fantasy value they bring.
2020-2021 record: 31-41, 11th in the Western Conference
Preseason odds: O/U 36.5 wins
Key Additions: Devonte’ Graham, Jonas Valanciunas, Tomas Satoransky
Key Departures: Lonzo Ball, Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe
Point Guard
After one year of the Ball/Bledsoe experiment, the starting backcourt for the Pelicans has been completely renovated. Devonte’ Graham arrives in the Big Easy from the Charlotte Hornets as a stark contrast to pass-first Lonzo Ball. Much to fantasy managers’ dismay, Graham never met a shot he didn’t like. The past two years, however, that has meant shooting 38% on 15 field goals per game in 2019 and 37% on 12 per game last year. The scoring is going to have to take a backseat to Ingram and Zion this season, and New Orleans will need Graham to be much more of a distributor when the three share the floor. Graham has shown he can play that role, averaging 7.5 assists per game in 2019-20. His 35.3% assist rate that year ranked 10th in the NBA, so expect him to play much more of that role this season. Graham remains a captain on the punt-field goal% teams, but hopefully, with fewer shots, he does less damage to fantasy squads this year. Graham could be a value in the eighth round (PG32) as a source of assists and three-pointers (career 36% from distance).
Tomas Satoransky was brought in the same day as Graham to serve as the backup point guard. He has proven to be an adequate fantasy fill-in during his time in Washington and Chicago when either John Wall, Coby White, or Zach LaVine were unable to play. But there is no need to draft Satoransky and he can remain on your waiver wire unless Graham suffers a serious injury.
Shooting Guard
Nickeil Alexander-Walker was a late-season fantasy and DFS darling for many at the end of 2021. Thrust into a starting role with the combination of Pelicans’ injuries and tanking tendencies, NAW averaged 19 points, five rebounds, three assists, and three triples per game. He comes in this season as the incumbent starter at the shooting guard position, but with three usage monsters around him, it would more debilitating injuries for a major offensive role to open up again. His defensive numbers (one steal and five rebounds per game as a starter) offer some value in very deep leagues, but he is being drafted as SG49 for a reason.
Nominal backup Kira Lewis Jr. won’t make a significant impact on this team – likely ceding time to Josh Hart – and is best left on the waiver wire.
Small Forward
After a copy-and-paste 2020-21 season for New Orleans, we may have a clear picture of exactly who Brandon Ingram is at this stage of his career. Here are the past two seasons for the talented wingman:
| Season | Age | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | eFG% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
| 2019-20 | 22 | 33.9 | 8.2 | 17.7 | 0.463 | 2.4 | 6.2 | 0.391 | 0.531 | 0.851 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1 | 0.6 | 3 | 23.8 |
| 2020-21 | 23 | 34.3 | 8.4 | 18 | 0.466 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 0.381 | 0.531 | 0.878 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 23.8 |
Copy. Paste. Both of these seasons were in tandem with Zion as well, so unless we see significant signs of growth in any of these areas in 2021-22, this should be our expectation for a stat line. Of course, this puts Ingram among the most talented small forwards in the game. He is being drafted as SF9 in the fourth round, and that seems to be the ideal spot for him. There are guys with legitimate upside ahead of him (Michael Porter, Jr., Jaylen Brown), and guys who have capped ceilings like Tobias Harris and DeMar DeRozan directly behind. Draft Ingram with confidence in the fourth round and hope he makes a leap this year.
Josh Hart is the de facto sixth-man for New Orleans and will spell Ingram and Alexander-Walker as necessary. He is coming off a torn UCL in his right thumb but is expected to be ready to roll for the start of the season. If you are desperate for threes or rebounds, he makes sense as a last-round dart. Currently, Hart is going after pick 170 and can slot in at both wing spots.
Power Forward
In terms of fantasy categories, it looks like it’s going to be all or nothing for Zion Williamson. If you draft Zion in the second round (PF5), you are getting boatloads of production in points, FG%, rebounds, and assists (3.7 last year as a power forward). But you will not get anything in three-pointers (0.2 per game), and disappointingly low production in FT% (.683 for career), blocks (0.6), and steals (0.9). However, at just barely 21 years old, there is clearly an opportunity for Zion to take a huge step up in free throws, blocks, and steals. As he learns more about spacing, switching, defensive assignments, and rotations, there should be more opportunities for increased defensive statistics. He is what he is at the free-throw line and makes for an elite producer on teams that punt that category, but if things fall right for him, he could add enough value to be a late-first/early-second round pick next season.
Zion’s minutes jumped from 27.2 in his rookie year to 33.2 last season. Expect another marginal bump up there, which means if backup Naji Marshall is playing significant minutes, something has gone horribly wrong in New Orleans. No thanks.
Center
If there is one variable that eats into another jump in production for Zion in 2021-22, it would be new center Jonas Valanciunas and his ability to dominate a game defensively from the paint. J-Val finished with 12.5 rebounds per game last season and shot 59% from the field (17 points per game), primarily because he was third in the NBA in touches in the paint. Valanciunas will surely be asked to play more outside the paint so that Zion has more room to operate, but it is certainly something to monitor. Any shift of J-Val to more of a perimeter role would surely knock down his rebounds, field goal percentage, points, and blocks. Knowing this, it’s risky to draft him as the 11th center off the board (5th/6th round). With more mouths to feed in New Orleans, that is likely his absolute ceiling and I would be avoiding at that point in the draft.
Jaxson Hayes has some really nice per-36 minute stats, but he is not likely to play more than 15 minutes per night. The Pelicans can go big with Valanciunas at center or go small with Ingram at the four and Zion at the five. That leaves little room for someone like Hayes to make an impact.
