2021-2022 Phoenix Suns Preview
The Phoenix Suns exceeded the majority of expectations in 2020-21. However, the same cannot be said for the team’s starting five from a fantasy perspective. The addition of Chris Paul and strong coaching from Monty Williams resulted in a team-first approach that spread contributions thin. Devin Booker’s assists dried up, Mikal Bridges’ steal rate took a dive, and Deandre Ayton seemed to forget that he was seven feet tall. Newcomer Paul, meanwhile, surged. With the Suns’ lineup remaining relatively stagnant during the flurry of off-season moves, what fantasy outlook should we have for their starting five this coming season?
Deandre Ayton: The Elephant in the Room
The former first-round pick was routinely bullied on the glass last season. He often looked timid and somewhat unsure of his place in this team’s revamped offense. His hyper-efficiency from the field kept his value somewhat afloat, but he fell way short of what many expected to be a breakout season alongside the newly signed point God.
Ayton took a step back in points, rebounds, and blocks per game. While he did make the most of the shots he was afforded—posting a massive 64% from the field—his attempts per game fell off a cliff. He also posted a career-high FT% from the strip. But the song remained the same, as his lack of aggressiveness around the basket failed to put him there. What is perhaps most concerning when reviewing Ayton’s forgettable year is how Monty Williams inserted Dario Saric at the five for many instances as the season progressed.
Yet even with all this considered, the fantasy gurus at Yahoo seem to believe the giant will find his footing. Perhaps there is some recency bias given the Suns’ run to the Finals, during which we saw Ayton finally pick up the pace. Even so, he is currently ranked 31st overall in 9-cat on Yahoo, and his ADP is not far off.
Are we to believe that with the same starting five from last year Ayton will see an uptick in usage or that he will gobble up rebounds at a rate similar to his sophomore campaign? Even if his efficiency from the field remains sky-high, his lack of touches should temper the excitement of those looking to solidify FG% in the earlier rounds. Not only this, but the strong rumors surrounding Phoenix’s interest in Thaddeus Young indicate they may be looking to bolster frontcourt versatility, which should further hamper expectations for the fourth-year rim runner.
Fade Ayton for a lock at center such as Gobert, unless he tumbles in your draft and you want to take a big-upside swing on the potential he showed when the Suns were still bottom feeders. Enormous efficiency from the field should be of no concern. Reliable points, boards, and blocks, however, are anybody’s guess.
Devin Booker: The Most Deceptive Talent in Fantasy Basketball?
Book saw uncharacteristic fluctuations in his free-throw efficiency last year and gave owners a new definition of “the valley” for a time. With Chris Paul in town, the assists that made him such a fun player to own the season prior quickly dissipated. This trend gives us an elite scorer who leaves much to be desired, especially when one considers his Yahoo rank of 36 heading into this year.
His lofty reputation seems to be leading managers further astray, as his current ADP sits at 29.2. He doesn’t grab boards. He won’t get you stocks. And he is unique amongst his fellow high-volume scorers in that he won’t rack up triples despite what the uninitiated manager may be led to believe.
He does do his scoring relatively efficiently, but if points are the focal point of one’s build, it’s difficult to believe that high FG% is also a priority. At the backend of round three, should a prolific scorer really be taken in lieu of easy assists and monster boards? Meanwhile, other bucket-getters such as second-year breakout candidate Anthony Edwards and Cavs pseudo-star Collin Sexton await many rounds back and are more than capable of filling this role.
Unless you’re banking on Father Time turning his attention to CP3, there is probably more value to be reaped in other players going in the same range as Book. But if you’re into burning a third-round pick based on an assumption, then fire away.
Chris Paul: The $120 Million Man
Amidst the deluge of injuries last season, one player surprisingly remained upright for the duration. CP3 was incredible last year from a fantasy perspective, but the objective of this piece is not meant to extol or denigrate his abilities. Even now, despite his age, Paul has to convince no one that his transcendent basketball IQ will continue to generate production for owners in some of the game’s most valuable categories. But this is all assuming he is on the court.
Before last season and his one-year stint in OKC, Paul failed to play more than 61 games for three straight seasons. He simply is not a glowing example of durability, and at age 36, should he really be relied upon as a fantasy team’s cornerstone point guard? The numbers Paul will put up when on the court absolutely cannot be knocked, and on a per-game basis, there could be tremendous value even at his current Yahoo ADP of 30. Just be prepared for the season totals to tell a different tale. Set your eyes on the resurgent Cameron Payne should the slightest bit of news regarding Paul’s hamstring begin to circulate.
Mikal Bridges: A High Floor or Low Ceiling?
Bridges was a steady glue guy in 2020-21 who is quickly proving to be one of the foremost defensive wings in the NBA. Even so, his third year saw a dip in steals that hovered under one per game for much of the season. He finished strong, averaging 1.1 per, but after posting 1.6 and 1.4 per game in his rookie and sophomore seasons respectively, it is a bit concerning. Both of his percentages were rock solid, but much like Ayton, he just does not possess the volume in either to do much more than reinforce what a manager has constructed with earlier picks. Further, his production was also inflated due to his low turnover rate, an area that managers seldom analyze when building.
Heading into this season, his Yahoo rank of 51 and current ADP of 54.5 do not leave much room for value. The problem with taking Bridges inside the top 60 is that if the steals are not elite, what exactly is he offering you aside from the benefit of not hurting you? He displayed flashes of offensive upside last year but again, as is the theme with this preview, balance is perhaps this team’s greatest detriment as it pertains to fantasy production.
Bridges is a very likable player, but should he really be considered over the likes of other defensive dynamos such as OG or Dejounte, both of whom offer league-winning upside? The Suns’ wing is a safe if unsexy midround player, but do not convince yourself that you are drafting for upside given his current ADP.
Jae Crowder: It’s Too Bad Toughness Does Not Translate
This man just always seems to be on a competitive team since carving out a role with the Celtics. Unfortunately, his most valued asset is not one of the divine nine categories that rule all our lives. It’s no profound insight to assert that he’ll likely be on and off the wire again this year in 12 team leagues—barring some incredible stretch of shooting or rebounding numbers—but he’s worth mentioning as we preview the Suns, if only because he was a versatile anchor on an NBA Finals Team for the second straight year. Perhaps he does begin to shed some minutes to be picked up by Cam Johnson, but it’s unlikely either will be viable fantasy assets outside of streaming options.
In Conclusion
All things considered, the pummeling the Suns gave the West to emerge from the conference may have inflated their starters’ rankings this fantasy season. The lack of off-season intrigue may bode well for their chances to make another run, but that means it’s also possible more lukewarm fantasy performances follow. For better or worse, these are no longer the Suns of old, and their stars need to be evaluated as such heading into drafts. It’s unfortunate that in this case, real-world NBA success means more volatile fantasy production, but fantasy basketball is a strange mistress.
