The floodgates are open!  With salary caps expanded following the NBA’s most recent TV-megadeal, millions are being thrown out to anyone and everyone…  Ian Mahinmi?  Come on down!  Timofey Mozgov?  You’re the next contestant on The Price is Right!  Hey, Wiz and Lakers, you coulda just traded for one of Philly’s 10 centers!  On today’s show, Slim and I go through all 30 NBA teams and react to their biggest free agency moves and how it will impact the upcoming 2016-17 season.  We cover, like, 200 moves!  Well, maybe not that many, but we break down some of our favorite under-the-radar signees and how to value the 2016-17 Western Conference All-Star Team.  Aherm, I mean the Warriors…  Here’s our latest offseason edition of the Razzball Basketball Podcast:

Download in iTunes

  1. Jay says:
    (link)

    Love the podcast!

    You guys touched on it a little bit, but how do you rank Westbrook factoring in both his extreme upside (I’m guessing 28-30 PPG with about 8-9 rebounds and 9-10 assists and a sub-42 FG%) and knowledge of the fact that he’ll probably get traded? Is there any team he could possibly go to that would actually push him outside of top 5 value?

    And regarding GSW… I may very well be wrong, but my guess is that between Curry and KD, Curry takes the bigger overall hit in value. I think he’s obviously still super efficient, but I’m guessing he falls into more of a PG role (meaning probably 8+ assists) with about a rebound and a half less per game, and similar steal and 3PM numbers (although I think that even the threes take a hit), but falling from his 30 PPG to about 22-24. I also think he looks into feeding Durant a LOT, so I still anticipate KD probably averaging about 25-26 PPG with 7-8 boards and probably around the same number of assists (5) with excellent %’s… although I do agree that his FT volume goes down by probably 2-3 FT’s per game.

    With all of this considered… is it too crazy to put KD as the #1 or #2 pick? And how does Westbrook’s impending trade affect who you rank higher between him and Harden?

    I think as of right now, I have it…

    1. Kevin Durant
    2. Russell Westbrook (it’s the FG% and TO’s…)
    3. James Harden
    4. Steph Curry
    5. Karl-Anthony Towns

    That top four is hard to predict… but I think that Westbrook and Harden are both locked in at 2 and 3 – it’s just a matter of which Warrior takes the bigger hit that decides which of them is #1 and which is #4.

    Also… how far does Draymond Green fall?

    Keep up the good work!

    • Jay says:
      (link)

      @Jay: And on an unrelated note… does LeBron go up (I’m personally thinking #6 behind KAT and ahead of the Brow) after his performances in the playoffs, and how much higher does Millsap go with a seemingly greater load with Horford out of town and Dwight taking his spot?

      • Threekola says:
        (link)

        @Jay:

        Wow, didn’t except someone to agree with me so soon on Durant still being a fantasy god! Read by post below if you can. I’d like to see what you think. I go in-depth.

        Also, I think Dwight actually takes away from Millsap more than horford did as far as scoring and rebounding. Rebounding for sure will drop for Sap when Dwight is healthy. I say scoring will drop because Hawks will of course try to give Dwight all the confidenc they can and feed him a lot. Plus, Dwight clogs up the paint more than Horford. Not 100% on the scoring though, Sap is awesome. Owned him last year and he helped me get my championship 🙂 He can still get his 17 maybe.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Jay: @Threekola: Thanks for listening man! Whewwwww good question on Westbrook. It’s just SOOOOO hard to speculate on trades, giving him 29 variables, I imagine the Cavs maybe…? Lol. Spurs?

          I’m not steadfast in my stance yet, but I still think I’ll have Curry #1 and Durant to 3-5. I think KD takes the hit. He’s older, minutes started going down, etc etc. Def not crazy to put him #1. Not crazy to put any of those top 5 #1 I don’t think! But those are my clear top 5 as well.

          Nahhh, no big change for LeBron. He’s amazing and stepped up at the end, he’ll coast again in the reg season.

          I don’t think it’s a huge change for Sapper. Maybe he tries a few more 3s and yeah, less boards. But that’s about it

          • Jay says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin: Believe it or not… Steph is actually a year older than KD though. And maybe it’s just me (and of course all guesses and speculation at this point), but I almost see a sort of Wade and LeBron dynamic on the horizon, where Curry starts off as THE guy, but as the season goes on and KD gets more acclimated to his new teammates, I think Curry slides into more of a Wade role and sort of hands the keys to KD… and it becomes a 1A (KD) and 1B (Curry) situation.

            Also think I trust KD more health-wise after this postseason (which is something to think about on draft day), but that’s another issue for another day.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @Jay: Well, yes, but age is always a little relative to me, I meant more in NBA minutes/mileage…

              I dunno, I think Curry is still gonna be the guy. I don’t see keys being handed off, maybe split in half in shared!

              Agree on the injury thoughts. Curry has been pretty durable in a few straight reg seasons tho, but yes, I trust KD’s health a smidge more

  2. Threekola says:
    (link)

    At first I thought Durant would definitely drop a few spots back at least, but then I started taking it cat-by-cat. I don’t know if you guys have done that yet, but it’s actually really interesting.

    I think the clear ones are:

    Good:
    Fg% going UP – The guy is one of the most efficient scorers of all time. MVP year – 32 points on 50%, taking terrible contested shots. On the Warriors? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him hit 55% this year, like LeBron did on Heat.
    Threes going UP – At 2.6 last year. No reason his attempts should drop and his % should definitely increase to around the 40% range. I say he hits the 3.0 mark for threes.
    Turnovers going DOWN- Gonna have the luxury of playing off the ball much more. Probably will drop a full TO and be at around 2.5. If not, definitely less than 3.0

    Same:
    Ft% same (volume will probably take a hit, but don’t know why it should take a huge hit by any means cause it’s not like he’s not gonna get to the basket at the tempo they play at and used frequently on mismatches which happen pretty much every game.)

    Bad:
    Points going DOWN- This is Kevin Durant. He’s not going to just not take shots. His attempts are going to drop, but his efficiency will go up. I don’t think he drops under 24 points a game. Like we said before, Klay is the biggest loser here. He averaged 22. Durant will take all of Barnes 12 points while playing more minutes than he did, some of Draymonds 14, a good amount of Klay’s 22, plus play more minutes, and plus it’s KEVIN DURANT. This isn’t Love who had a couple great seasons on a bad team. Same with Bosh. He has performed consistently at the highest level. All-time-great scorer. You guys gotta realize the warriors are going to score a LOT of points. I’m starting to think he can match his 28 points from last year the more I go on. This is a guy who can score a quiet 40 points on OKC. I’m sure he can pour in a quiet 28 a night on Golden State. Still, though, there is good enough reason to believe that he will score less point on this team.

    NOWWW it gets reaallllllly interesting.

    As far as rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks…I am not so sure we can really sit here and be 100% certain about what happens to ANY of those categories. He is still going to get minutes of course. I’ll take the over on your guys’ projected 32 min. Draymond got 35 min. Curry got 34 min. Klay got over 33. You can’t tell me they’re gonna bring in Kevin freakin Durant in literally the prime of his career and play him a full 2 minutes less than those guys. Plus, we may see a good amount of KD playing with the second unit just like he did in OKC. Maybe not, but I see it happening. Either way, I say he gets at 34 minutes a game if not more and plays most of his minutes at the 4 spot, which is a GOOD thing for his fantasy value. A 1.5 minute dip in PT will go unnoticed at the tempo and level of basketball these guys play at.

    Let’s take it cat-by-cat:

    Rebounds – Durant averaged 8.2 rebounds last year on the #1 rebounding team in the league. Sure, he got a little under 36 minutes a game, but he was only the THIRD biggest player on the court almost all of the time. He played the 3. That is a testament to his rebounding ability. Now going to the Warriors, he’s going to be the TALLEST or SECOND tallest player on the court all the time. The only relevant player on the roster he is shorter than is Zaza who won’t even last long each night anyways. He is a full 3 inches taller than Draymond. So, for a good chunk of the time he’s gonna be the best rebounder out there. One can argue Draymond is better but I think his boards were boosted from how much he played the 5 with the next biggest guy on the floor being Iguodala or even Livingston. (Lol)

    Assists – Yes, this can very possibly go down from how much he’ll be used off the ball. However, SOOO many variables are changing from the switch to this team, and a lot of them scream “ASSISTS!” First of all, it’s not like he won’t be used as a ball handler in both transition and in half court sets. He’s a better ball handler than Draymond and although not as great as a passer, he’s about as good a passer as Iguodala, who averaged almost 4 ASSISTS last year on just 26.6 minutes a game and an incredibly low usage rate. You can’t tell me it’s IMPOSSIBLE Durant gets 1.5 more than Iggy did last year with his minutes and usage. He averaged 5.0 last year, but just look at the guys he’s going to be passing to now vs. who he used to pass to. Secondly, the offense is literally built around cuts and catching-and-shooting. The Warriors lead the league in assists at 27.9 (OKC got just 22.5) and by a good margin. I think Draymond’s assists go down and Durant is used in a high pick and roll with Curry very often. Draymond will not be relied on on offense NEARLY as much. He’ll literally never have a 30 point game again, maybe not even 25. When you put together the Warriors offense/system that is literally an assist machine with Durant passing out to shooters like Curry, Klay, Iggy etc. instead of OKC’s stagnant offense with passing to shooters like Westbrook, Waiters, and Roberson, Durant can very possibly get 5 assists a game. That being said, I’m not sure enough about assists going up or down. You just can’t for sure tell me they’ll drop.

    Steals – The logic is simple here. Better team defense, upside for more deflections. Like IT2/3, he can take a jump in steals because of the team he goes to. Golden State is great at forcing turnovers. Yes, OKC had a better defensive rating but much of that was BECAUSE of Durant. Golden State did what they did without his 7’2″ wingspan involved. Lol. Last year’s 1.0 steals isn’t hard to beat, either, as it ties a career low for him since his rookie year. It isn’t cause of age, he’s 28. Just a bad year for steals is all. Again, you can’t tell me his steals will drop and be sure about it.

    Blocks – Same thought process as for steals. Plus, him playing the 4 more will help. If Draymond can average a block and a half, why would Durant’s blocks drop below 1? He will get the same benefit as Draymond did from playing the big man role. He is a great shot blocker as he clearly displayed in the playoffs, except this time around Adams and Kanter or Ibaka aren’t both on the court. (all better big men than Zaza by the way). Anything can happen in the D stats category. His role on defense will be very different and he will be relied on more.

    If you guys are on board with this or at least most of it, let’s see what projected stat line we get from Durant next year. I’m going to go with my rough estimates for the categories I’m sure about (as to whether they’ll go up or down). As for the ones I’m not sure about(rebounds, assists, steals, blocks), I’ll just go with last year’s.

    54.2%/88%/3.0/24.4/8.2/5.0/1.0/1.2/2.6

    I would say that is pretty damn good…actually…I would say that is better than last year. Even if boards and assists do drop to 7 and 4 or something, that is still incredible. If any of those go up? The sky is the limit. His fg% was key and that’s gonna go UP. His only knock was his turnovers and they’re gonna drop SIGNIFICANTLY. This can be one of the most unique fantasy stat lines ever.

    Please take the time to really think about the things I’ve said and criticize/agree on whatever you guys can! I’ve been thinking about this for a while.

    – ya boy Threekola

    • Adam

      Adam says:
      (link)

      @Threekola: I’ll take a shot at this as a huge OKC fan, and notorious Warriors critic (Pretty sure I watched every game for both squads….). I see the logic, but a few variables are being left out. First, the turnovers will stay the same or go up, and it has nothing to do with Durant, but with the Warriors style of play. They make the risky passes and push the ball hard. Plus, Durant is still going to do a fair amount of handling – I assume his minutes will be a bit staggered with Curry, and Durant and Curry are the only true playmakers off the dribble on that team.

      In terms of rebounding, you have to factor in that Ibaka and Kanter really hate rebounding on defense… It was almost absurd. This is how Westy and Durant grabbed so many boards. I’m not sure his rebound numbers go down with the Warriors, but I highly doubt they go up. Durant doesn’t rebound because he’s a good rebounder or because he puts effort in. It’s a matter of balls bouncing to him because of his height.

      The steals point is just not a point… OKC had a better defensive rating because they’re a better defense. KD is a good defender, but Westbrook, Roberson, and Adams are still better. Plus Ibaka was a huge intimidating factor as well, although he wasn’t a fantastic post defender. The Warriors also don’t put a ton of energy into defense – they’re best at offense, so that’s what they save it for. Obviously, Draymond and Iggy are the exceptions, but during the season, you can see it a lot more.

      FG% is going to be interesting. I highly doubt it reaches 54%, just because his percentage of points in the paint will go down. 3s will get a major boost, but he’ll still hang around 40% in that category, with more attempts though. Durant got a LOT of easy inside buckets because of Westbrook, and most people don’t seem to get that. Just because Durant tried to force his offense in the playoffs, does not mean that that’s how the regular season was. Most of Durant’s scoring came easy in OKC. When it became more difficult in the playoffs, you could see just how inadequate he is at creating his own shot.

      Assists going up I’ll give ya haha. I’m sure Durant will trust these teammates a lot more, so that should naturally follow.

      I’m still taking Harden and Westbrook over KD/Curry, just because I know exactly what I’m getting. KD or Curry could finish higher, but there’s just very little risk with Russ and Harden.

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @Threekola: I’ll come back later but the biggest reason I see minutes going down is due to 4th quarter blowouts, which I imagine will be plentiful. If they are up by 20 going into the 4th does Durant even get off the bench? If they aren’t playing for the Wins record does Durant get days off late in the year?

      Top of my head for Durant I’ll go…

      .520, yes more efficient but not a big jump since he’s changing systems. LeBron didn’t see a major jump until his 2nd year with the Heat. (17.5 shots per game, so a bit less)
      .88, but as he gets older his FTs have gone down and since he can now trust his teamates and pass it out instead of driving so much I think attempts around 5-5.5 per game.
      I don’t think 3-pt attempts go up and I would argue they go down as he takes fewer shots overall, I’d say about 2.2 or so.
      Points are coming down. If I add up my previous numbers it comes to about 25 per game. Not a big dip but a dip non the less.
      I agree rebounding shouldn’t change too much, except I have him down for fewer minutes. Also he was playing with one of the worst rebounding PFs in Ibaka, vs Draymond who is one of the better ones. I’ll go with about… I’m no where near 8.2, esp with a career per36 of 6.7. I’ll say it’s better than carrer but at 32 min I’m closer to around 6.5-7.
      I don’t think Assists change at all. 4.5-5, better teamates offsets fewer minutes.
      Steals down as he’s getting older and playing more conservatively defensively. I’ll stick with 1.0 per game.
      Blocks should sneak down some more and I’m closer to the 1.0 number.
      I like your TO number. But maybe a smidge higher as he gets acclimated with new teamates. 2.8

      My number right now is…
      .520/.880/2.2/25.0/6.8/4.8/1.0/1.0/2.8 :32

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Threekola: @Adam: @Slim: So if anyone asks for a KD article the next few days, I’m pointing them here!

        I’m going only 24.0 PTS. I think Curry goes down too, but he’s still the high scorer and obviously high dimer. Agree on 3s going up, I DEF don’t see 55% shooting though, LeBron did that bc he doesn’t take a ton of 3s. Plus he scores in the paint a little more I think, although that’s anecdotal.

        Minutes – You’re forgetting this was a team that chased the wins record. They’re gonna get BLASTED if no one rests this year, given how GSW didn’t win the title. I don’t think Durant plays 2 minutes less than those guys, I think they all come down 1-2 mins.

        I disagree with Slim a little on the 3s. I think when they’re up by 20 in the 3rd some games, he’s gonna start trying to bang threes to be Three’s Company. New nickname for them? Hah!

        So for me:

        51%/FT high but lower volume/2.7/24.0/6.9/5.5(I like an aggressive AST proj. here)/1.0/1.0 :32

        So pretty close to Slim.

        • Threekola says:
          (link)

          @Adam: @Slim: @JB Gilpin:

          Just gonna mention you guys’ names as I go on. This is for all three of you!

          Adam, I just think you’re simply wrong on a few of these points. Firstly, you’re reasoning that his turnovers will stay or go up is: 1- They take risky passes and push the ball. 2- He and Curry are the only playmakers off the dribble.

          Well, their offense isn’t built on risky passes. It is Draymond and Curry who get flashy and make careless errors. Durant in OKC was just overwhelmed at times in that stagnant offense, and with how much he had to do off the dribble, he would mess up a few times. Also, Curry is definitely no the only playmaker off the dribble on the team right now. You said you watched every game so I’m sure you would agree that Draymond is a great drive and disher and Iguodala can give you a crossover and kick out too. Both can also pass in transition. Durant will just objectively have less pressure on offense so I still think his turnovers dropping are extremely likely. I think Slim agrees with me, though I don’t know you’re stance on it Slim.

          You guys all seem to be confident that his rebounds will dip. Slim, you didn’t really talk about it so I’m just going with your projection. So, this also applies to you 🙂

          For your rebounding point, Adam, I’m actually even more confident in my point after realizing Durant got his 8 rebounds with the best rebounding guard in the league as well. I’ll bring up your point after, Slim. You say Kanter and Ibaka hate rebounding on defense, but Kanter got 5 defensive and 3 offensive rebounds in 21 minutes. That is a lot of defensive rebounds for how much he played. The ratio also seems about right. Durant was also in most of the time Kanter was in since his playing time was staggered with the 2nd unit. Ibaka got the same amount of defensive boards this year as Kanter did, 5, while his offensive rebounds were 2 instead of 3. And then you have Adams with 8 boards and Westbrook with 8 boards. Analytically, Durant’s rebounding percentage will be higher in Warriors. I think you are also kind of descreditting his rebounding ability. Yes, he’s not tenacious by any means. I’m with you. But, let’s not compare him to Westbrook here. That guy’s just insane. He has average rebounding willingness, but above average height, ridiculous length even relative to his height, great athletic ability, and good timing. And when he is going to actually be relied on to rebound in Golden State, I think his drive to rebound increases.

          So Slim, the reasons you gave for Durants rebounding to go down are 1- Ibaka was one of the worst rebounding PF’s while Draymond is one of the better ones 2- Minutes.

          So, are we just going to ignore the other 4 positions? Draymond got under 10 rebounds, which I think will go down when Durant joins since he will get less rebounds in small lineups. Bogut got 7. Other than that, everyone was below 6.

          OKC had Adams, Kanter, Ibaka, Westbrook. They got 7 more a game as a team. Additionally, Durant was very frequently on the court with 2-3 great rebounders. Westbrook, and 2 bigs. That will literally NEVER happen in Golden State. He will be relied on to rebound more. He will play 1 or 2 less minutes, but will rebound better or maybe even a lot better Per Minute. I think there’s no chance he drops anywhere near 6.5. I’m predicting 7.8-8.2 to be safe and, if things go like I imagine they will, he could rise to 8.5 or above.

          (Slim and JB, if you guys don’t want to read my butthurt rant about how good Durant is, skip to the next paragraph that starts with “Slim and JB”. Adam you can to but it’s regarding what you said lol)

          Adam – “Durant got a LOT of easy inside buckets because of Westbrook, and most people don’t seem to get that. Just because Durant tried to force his offense in the playoffs, does not mean that that’s how the regular season was. Most of Durant’s scoring came easy in OKC. When it became more difficult in the playoffs, you could see just how inadequate he is at creating his own shot.”

          This is just shocking to me and the most disrespectful thing I’ve heard someone say to KD. You have me sounding like Stephen A. bro. A lot of easy inside shots because of Westbrook? That is just not true. The only consistent way Westbrook would actually assist to Durant in the paint is on the baseline cut alley oops, which was a designed play usually ran for Roberson. 80% of his assists were to bigs. Most of his scoring came easy?!?!?!?!!??!? AHHHHH it hurts. All the contested jumpers and no-calls from the refs because he was forcing drives?! Cmon man. That will not happen in the Warriors. He will get sooo many looks he never got and I’m sure most people agree. The only play they ran for him was a simple down screen which is like 6th grade level ball. If not that, they ran a high pick and pop into a post up on literally his heels on the three point line, which is a very hard position to score from but he STILL DID BECAUSE HE’S DURANT. Sorry. When you said he is inadequate at creating his own shot I lost my mind. He had what? Twelve 40 point games in a row WITHOUT Westbrook his MVP season on above 50% from the field? What was that record he set? Averaged 32 on 50% with being the only guy who would create any sort of offense on the team. He is better than ever now and is a top 2-3 overall scorer in the league, and he will be used heavily in the Warriors offense. He fits in sooo perfectly. Deadly off the ball and on the ball when needed. Perfect.

          Slim and JB, I can go down to 53% with my fg% but no lower. At least we’re close now. JB, I think he just deserves more the a 0.5% bump you gave him. Half a percent dude? He was simply just too amazingly efficient for the tough shots he took in OKC. With the incredibly open shots and cuts/layups he’ll get on this team, it’s too good of a situation for him not to frequently have games where he goes 10/16 fg and such. I think the worst case scenario is Slim’s projection of 52%. Best case a little above 54 probably. Just because he can have a season like that on this team.

          For threes, JB and Adam seem to agree with me that they’ll go up. Slim idk what you’re smoking my brother but he will get more than 2.2 threes a game. Yes, he will take less shots, but he and Curry will be the go to guys still. It’s not like he’s just going to be lurking in the shadows. This team thrives off of transition threes which Durant loves to do. He will have the green light to shoot whenever he wants and will actually have plays designed for him. His three point attempts shouldn’t drop. If they do, it should be very miniscule. I, like Adam, think his attempts should slightly go up. The warriors just take sooo manyyy threeees. His %, though, will definitely increase. I agree with Adam and JB that he will make more threes a game, but definitely more than JB’s bump of 0.1 threes. JB, I feel like you’re being hesitant for some reason. This is DURANT on the WARRIORS baby! Be free! I think he will shoot around 7 a game like he did in OKC and will increase his % by around 4-5 from the quality of the looks he’ll get. Just imagine a Curry Durant pick and pop. The defense has to double Curry. Durant will ALWAYS have that shot at the top of the key. I just checked and he averaged 39% in OKC with all those contested looks off of ISO, so 43% is very reasonable. 7 attempts at 43% means 3.01 threes per game. Pretty much exactly my prediction. Even with Adams projection, 40% with more attempts, say 7.5, still adds up to 3 threes a game.

          You guys all seem to agree assists will go up. This makes me very happy inside guys. It really does. 5.5 it is. Remember me in you guys’ projections for next season! 🙂

          Defensive stats. I’m with you guys, I don’t think we see a big change anywhere. Adam, I agree my point about team defense was probably my weakest in the whole comment, but I still think he stays 1.0 or above. I see Slim brought up his age. Your Oldaphobia is getting in the way here. Old lives matter! Many players have increased their defensive stats at the age of 30 to 31. Millsap just averaged by far a career high in blocks at 30. Durant is nowhere near a physical decline right now. Age will not factor into his stats going into his age 28 year. Name me a player that had an age-related decline in stats, WHO WAS HEALTHY, at age 28. It usually starts at around 30-31 and then sharply regresses after 33-34.

          Sorry, Slim, I know your projection for steals is exactly what mine was but I just want to clarify Durant is right in the middle of his prime. However, you just assumed blocks will drop without any reasoning or entertaining the possibility that they can go up.

          He will play the 4 a lot more and will have less shot blockers around him. He loves to block shots and will get a morale boost playing with these guys. Just look at Ibaka, the less morale he had, the lower his blocks got. I bet he gets a big boost in blocks on Magic next year. Durant has averaged 1.3 blocks before although he played a lot of minutes that year. I don’t see a decline in blocks really. I’d bet anything that he’ll stay above 1.0 and can go up to 1.4 in the case that all these variables work out in his favor. He’s never had to play as big as he will have to.

          We all see to be on the same boat for FT% and volume. I’m fine with 88% on 5.0-5.5 attempts. Points is the wild card here but we’re all at 24 or above and my prediction was 24.4, so we’re good.

          I think that’s every category…be right back.

          Yup.

          Wow, this is getting good. Bring it on boys. Or have you had enough?

          -ya boy Threekola

          • Threekola says:
            (link)

            @Threekola:

            When I said though I don’t know your stance on turnovers, Slim, I meant JB. JB didn’t talk about it or have it in his predictions. oops!

            -ya boy Threekola

            • Threekola says:
              (link)

              @Threekola:

              Also the same when I said Slim didn’t talk about rebounds. I meant JB didn’t talk about them. AKHHH.

              -ya boy Threekola

              • Dirk's Digglers says:
                (link)

                @Threekola: what’s your guys thoughts on impact on Draymond’s numbers?

                • Slim

                  Slim says:
                  (link)

                  @Dirk’s Digglers:

                  Boards…

                  So he’ll mostly be next to Pachulia (not Bogut – 12.9 per36 last year), Draymond (9.9), Curry (5.7) and Klay (4.1) or apx 32.6. Last year he mostly played next to Adams (9.5), Ibaka (7.7), Westbrook (8.2) and Waiters (3.4) or apx 28.8. So yes I think he is going to a team with better rebounders around him, a team that doesn’t need to play him nearly as many minutes to win games, and Durant is coming off a year in which he upped his previous career high per36 boards by 0.7. To me that all points to regression, although my 6.8 in 32 min would be 7.65 per36 so I’m saying he gets the 2nd highest rebounding per36 of his career. If he plays 34 min then my number is 7.2.

                  I could be wrong but I feel like Kanter got most of his minutes when Durant wasn’t on the floor so I’m not considering his 20 min per game vs 2nd units. Just the starters.

                  • Slim

                    Slim says:
                    (link)

                    @Slim:

                    Steals/Blocks peak…

                    So I believe each category has different ages at which it tends to peak. Of course there are outliers but from what I can tell a players steal peak is age 23-25. I know it seems crazy but at 26 it seems to fall off no matter how great a players offense improves. Blocks are a little different because there aren’t as many scorers to compare but anecdotally speaking LeBrons blocks peaked at 23-25, Michael Jordan 22-24, Kobe 21-22. So if I was a betting man I would take the under on 1.2 Blocks per for Durant, which would be what he was doing at 23-24, and that was in 38.5 min.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
                  (link)

                  @Dirk’s Digglers: Ummm, maybe less points, then shave off 5% of everything due to less touches and minutes. Still very good though, and definitely less TO

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
                (link)

                @Threekola: Wow, SOMEONE has KD #1 on their board, and is gonna try to make the world agree! 🙂

                I think less minutes and less aggressive/close games will impact the REB. OKC had 14 close game wins, 14 close game losses, while GSW had 13 and 2. http://www.nbaminer.com/margins-comebacks/

                Again, this is anecdotal, but seems like in blowout wins, REB go down and obviously mins will do.

                My FG% only barely going up is because I think he attempts more 3s, which naturally lowers FG%.

                3 treys would be aggressive, not outlandish though. Again my concern is for minutes here, not 3s per/48.

                Hah the high AST is alllll MIINNNNEEEE!

                Ummm Brandon Roy?! Hah yeah, that is ignoring your healthy caveat…

                Blocks – again aggression with not close games and minutes impact this for me. But 1.0 is still awesome for someone doing so much.

                TO – Meh. somewhere 2.5ish sounds about right, down a little since he’ll be playing less and won’t need to force much

          • Adam

            Adam says:
            (link)

            @Threekola: I’m thinking that this subject deserves a dedicated article haha. I’ll probably do one in the near future if JB and Slim don’t get to it first.

            I will say that most of my opinions on this signing have to do with the mental aspect of the game. I do think Durant will disrupt the flow of the offense. If Durant was unhappy with how Westbrook would hold the ball at times, I highly doubt he is going to be happy about Curry lobbing up 30 footers in critical situations. Now, this situation may not occur in the regular season, as they should dominate that, but the playoffs are a totally different ball game.

            Your predictions seem to be based on Durant being willing to be almost purely a spot up guy, which would elevate Curry’s value significantly, since nobody is going to come off Durant like they did with Barnes. If he were merely getting the Barnes treatment, then I’d have him down for 40 a game.

            This year, the majority of Durant’s shots came from within 0-3 feet of the basket and from outside the 3 point line. With a career high of those 2 point field goals being assisted on (he did take a higher amount of bad 3 point looks, but most of those were his own fault for not trusting teammates. Roberson on the wing didn’t help that). Now, some of those assists came from the bigs, but that was still from Russell creating the shot. I will say that Klay and Barnes have wayyyy more assisted shots, but to say that he was just taking contested jumpers is clearly coming from someone who is basing it purely on the playoffs, where Westbook was doubled the majority of the time, and Durant was clearly fouled with no calls being made.

            The assists will go up, and the the turnovers will at least hold. Golden state does not have the precise passing of the Spurs. Their goal is to move the ball quickly to find the open three, and this sometimes leads to TOs. Nothing wrong with the style, but TOs are built in to the system.

            Blocks and steals are going to be around 1 a game, I don’t think there’s any disagreement there. His career numbers are pretty level in those areas. Although, I’m not getting the whole “he loves to block shots,” comment… That seems rather subjective haha. He isn’t a shot blocker, but he occasionally blocks one because he gets that good of a contest.

            With the 3s, I would not be surprised if he launches over 8 a game. They should be the majority of his shots. That’s the only reason I’m not going to give him a major FG% boost. Even if he would shoot 45% from distance, this would still keep his FG% at close to 50, if those were approximately half his shot attempts. I don’t think you can have it both ways.

            Your predictions could pan out if Klay and Dray were to take a complete back seat, or if there were to be an injury to either of them. I just see his usage rate being longer than these stats would suggest. Plus, I think the Warriors would be foolish to play their stars much over 30 minutes in the regular season. They will be sitting in blowouts, and I think there will be a fair amount of those in the regular season as well. Westbrook and Harden will not have that issue with their fantasy value.

            • Slim

              Slim says:
              (link)

              @Adam: I’m starting to think Curry is the one that will see less of a dip in numbers. If for nothing else the reason you gave about guys not being able to come off Durant to double Curry. Driving lanes will be more open. Yeah right this second I might go with…

              Curry, Westbrook, Harden, Durant.

              Not that I think Curry will repeat last season but even at less he still almost lapped the field in value last year and efficiency from Harden and Westbrook could get nasty.

              • Adam

                Adam says:
                (link)

                @Slim: That sounds about right, but I’d still say Harden and Westy are the safest there. It’s tough to say what the psychological effect will be with Curry. Will he be a bit more hesitant shooting because he wants to get Durant involved? That’s going to be where the problems come in, particularly for Thompson and Green. Any second guessing will kill rhythm. It’ll be interesting to watch.

              • Jay says:
                (link)

                @Slim: Curry in a no punt build though or Westbrook/Harden in a punt FG% build?

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
                  (link)

                  @Adam: @Slim: Hah, yeah I don’t think there is gonna be much animosity when they win 69 games. Not quite 70 🙂

                  I’m still leaning Curry #1 too. Westbrook trade scares me right now. I’ll go Curry, Harden, Durant, Westbrook I think. But it’s 3 coin clips, it’s sooooo close

                  @Jay: I’ll take Curry and punt nothing. NOTHING I SAY!

                  • Ryan says:
                    (link)

                    @JB Gilpin: Yeah I also think Curry will still be the clear cut #1, but I’m beyond hyped to own Westbrook in two non-redrafts! PUNTING FTW!

                    Won’t even have to punt FG% in one league because my stable of bigs consists of Whiteside, Vucevic, Dieng, and Gortat.

                    I’m not too concerned about the Brodie getting traded tbh. I doubt he falls past mid-first rd value even if he gets dealt to any of the sensible trade destinations.

                    And oh man, if he can replicate that godly stretch without KD from 2014-15? He might just finish first overall if Curry regresses more than we think. I honestly don’t think Curry will take much of a step back though. I could see his efficiency rising to SCARY Hassan Whiteside levels with Durant on the floor.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
                      (link)

                      @Ryan: Yeah this is a fun time for Westbrook! In redraft though, I still do worry about where he lands, mostly if he’s not dealt pre-season. If he’s dealt in a deadline deal, that’s gonna hurrrrrt.

                      If he does somehow stay in OKC, there is that slight chance he finishes #1, but it’s unlikely he’s there all year, sadly… Gotta feel bad for OKC fans, they’re about to dissolve into a small market hell…

  3. Paul says:
    (link)

    @JB Gilpin what did you say? “mach schnell”? if yes, then good pronounced.
    I think Dennis can put up 17,5 ppg/7,5 apg/4,5 rpg/0,2 bpg/1,3 spg/1,2 3pg/3,4 to pg
    on 42/33/80

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Paul: Haha, yeah but I was hoping to say “Very Good” which I have no idea how to say…

      I love those projections. Nothing I will quibble with, mayyyybe I’d say 8.0-8..5 dimes. Thanks for helping with my German this year!

      • Paul says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: sehr gut!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Paul: Ja!

  4. Viz

    Viz says:
    (link)

    To give some clarification, Tyler Johnson is an Arenas rules free agent meaning that he can only get the mid level exception the first 2 years of an offer sheet being in the league only 2 years as a RFA, then they can make the big jump. The contract is structured that way because it simply has to be, it’s not Brooklyn’s design. Jordan clarkson would have been the same way if someone offer sheeted him and. he didn’t make a deal with the lakers first. There’s a lot of info on the subject with a quick Google search. Good stuff as always guys!

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @Viz: So my question is… do the Heat have to match the EXACT offer the Nets made or can they make it more like a standard contract, or even offer more?

      But yeah thankfully contract stuff doesn’t play into what we do.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Viz: @Slim: Bureaucracy is out of control! Thankfully his upside is about the same on either team now, but I kinda want him to stay in MIA with Crabbe signing that offer sheet in BKN now too

  5. Viz

    Viz says:
    (link)

    Also I disagree on the pacers; I think they’re taking a step back. Vogel to McMillan is a dropoff and I don’t know how they’re going to stop anybody with a Teague Ellis backcourt. It’s more reason why I can’t see big Al closing games, it’s too many atrocious defenders. The tempo will pick up so it could be OK fantasy wise but in real life I don’t see them taking a step forward.

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @Viz: On paper they seem to have improved, offensively. I could be wrong but I always felt like Teague was a better defender than Hill, and Thad always felt like a quality guy there too. Myles should be a solid rim protector and the year 1 to year 2 jump is usually the biggest. No more George at the 4. I don’t know… I guess the biggest question is that of chemistry.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Viz: @Slim: Well, the coaching change I’m not arguing is a “good” thing, but I wasn’t really lumping that in. I think Turner as a rim protector, Thad a good defender, and they’ll be happy to give up perimeter shots to keep the speed up. Agree on Big Al though, I’m not as bullish on his run that Slim is.

  6. A Hill O' Beans says:
    (link)

    Apparently Vogel says Aaron Gordon is gonna start at the 3, which if true is a big relief. I still don’t know if he’ll get as many minutes as he should but I’m slightly less panicked than I was before hearing that.

    I still think they end up trading Vuc, but if they do who the heck is gonna score on that team?

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @A Hill O’ Beans: I hope so… So where is Jeff Green and his $15 mil contract getting minutes from? Is Hezonja going to be a guard? If Gordon starts at the 3 then no one can question top-100. He’ll just be a risky target in the 70s, although he could easily return that. Definitely someone I’ll be watching in the preseason.

      I think Fournier is going to have alot on his plate and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pushes 20 PPG.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @A Hill O’ Beans: @Slim: Agree, we need this to happen Vogel! Hell, he isn’t a Skiles at least!

        Agree with Slim, I’m gonna be pretty huge on Fournier. Hezonja is prob backup 2/3 as the 6th man.

        • A Hill O' Beans says:
          (link)

          @Slim: @JB Gilpin: Yeah I’m really liking Fournier this year, have to agree there. He could be the number one scoring option on that team.

          I think Hezonja has to be the backup 2 with Green backing up Gordon/Ibaka. Orlando certainly has some depth this year, I think they may finally have a shot at making the playoffs, and Vogel is gonna be a big part of that.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @Slim: @A Hill O’ Beans: Yeah he’s gonna be awesome. Oh yeah, I guess Green has to play some SF minutes. So dumb… Isn’t this the team that signed Ben Gordon and Channing Frye the past few years?! Yeesh.

            Dat defense doe! Elfrid, then Gordon/Ibaka/Biyombo, sheesh!

  7. Jay says:
    (link)

    How does the departure of DWade affect Hassan Whiteside?

    No one to throw him those alley oops anymore (unless Dragic turns into that guy), but you’d think that with him getting such a large contract (and Bosh possibly not even being there), his usage rate has to be through the roof this season… right?

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @Jay: Yeah I’m thinking Whiteside is going to lose some FG% and the TOs are going to go up. But he might also average 20/15 and 3+ blocks. Bosh makes everything tough to predict but without Deng and Wade there’s like an extra 25 shots to be taken and even with a nudge to Whiteside’s efficiency he looks like a solid late 1st round buy. Assuming of course his 2nd half FT% is for real.

      Dragic has worked his way back into the top 50 discussion too. He’s going to have the ball in his hands a ton!

      We still have to see what the Heat do about Tyler Johnson but Josh Richardson is in my top 100 now and he looks like a stud so far in summer league, like he should… I know Winslow is going to start at SF and I’m sure he’ll be a hot name on draft day, but I like Richardson more.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Jay: @Slim: Ummmm, I dunno about his USG rate changing all that much. He’s not a creator in the least. I think 20 Pts will be realllly hard to get to. I’d go maybe 17/14. But luckily Slim is on my Whiteside in first round bandwagon now!

        Def in on Richardson too. We’ll have to see where Ty Jo lands, but it’s a pretty interesting open opportunity now for those Hear

        • Slim

          Slim says:
          (link)

          @JB Gilpin: Whiteside post ASB was 17.5/13.3 on 59%/ 75%/ 1.7 TOs in 30:31. And reports are he’s working hard on extending his range to about 15-ft which is completely reasonable and if he can successfully pick and pop then people can’t overplay the pick and roll and he will be an absolute monster statistically. So my projection, assuming nothing major changes, would look something like…

          .560/.730/0/19.5/14.5/0.5/0.6/3.2/2.0 :32 min

          In my ideal world I want to pair him with Wall at the 1st/2nd turn.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @Slim: Yeah, the boards seem appropriate, I still don’t think he scores quite that much though. Whiteside/Wall would be pretty dirty though, if stuck with a late pick

  8. Toni Vidal Ribes says:
    (link)

    Vucevic or Griffin?

    Maybe Griffin is a safest pick by now, not?

    Do you think Vucevic is going to go down if he is traded?

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @Toni Vidal Ribes: Yeah Blake was always ahead of Vucevic even before they added Biyombo. I think Vucevic will be his usual self wherever he goes. Although the injury concerns for Vucevic have become far too big to ignore, he’ll be a player I avoid on draftday.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Toni Vidal Ribes: @Slim: Yeah you have to take Griffin. But not like Griffin has been too healthy either lately 🙂 I actually think it’s more likely Vuc sees less ball on another team, but obviously we’d have to see where he would be traded. Agree, this is the year I definitely rank Vuc below ADP, unless he lands somewhere miraculous in a trade

  9. Slimcompoop says:
    (link)

    What’s good JB? Loving the podcast. I think I went cross-eyed reading the thread on KD’s projected numbers now that he’s in Golden State. Agree to disagree? He’s still top-three no matter what. The BIG question everyone should be debating is Victor Oladipo’s value now that he’s in the backcourt with Russell Westbrook in OKC? No doubt that Westbrook’s value goes through the roof now that he’ll be getting even more touches, but talk I don’t think Oladipo could of asked for a better situation to step into. I don’t know where you had him projected before, but I’m thinking early second round value if not even higher.

    Anythehoo, what the hell is going on with all these massive contracts for mediocre players? Didn’t Allan Crabbe just get a 4-year/$75M deal? That’s INSANE that ALLAN CRABBE is getting close to 19M/year. I gave up too early on my hoop dreams in college:( So, I have a keeper-question for you in my 10-team/H2H league where the scoring system is pretty simplistic (e.g., just counts points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals)…I have to choose eight of the following fifteen guys (in no order) to hold onto for 2016/2017:

    Kemba Walker
    Victor Oladipo
    Reggie Jackson
    Rajon Rondo
    Kawhi Leonard
    Rodney Hood
    Kent Bazemore
    Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
    Jae Crowder
    Marcus Morris
    Andre Drummond
    Anthony Davis
    Derrick Favors
    Al Jefferson
    Steven Adams

    So…Kemba, Oladipo, Kawhi, Drummond and Davis are all no-brainers. I would argue that Derrick Favors is as well, so that’s six. Now is where it gets tough. We can through out Bazemore, Hollis-Jefferson, Morris, Jefferson (now that he’s in IND), and even Adams (although I think he’s going to provide good value next year). That leaves needing to pick two between R-Jax, Rondo (3rd wheel in Chicago), Hood and Crowder. Based on how the season ended last year, at first blush I’m going with Crowder and Hood. You? Thanks for all the feedback…

    • Ryan says:
      (link)

      @Slimcompoop: I too would like to know why okay to below average players are getting paid so much. The obvious answer that is going to get spit back at us is “well the cap increased.” But seriously, the cap increased by 34%, and it seems like some players received a pay raise well above that percentage.

      Btw, with you 100% for the first six players. I’m also struggling with the last two. I know Hood is becoming a Razzball favorite, but my gut is leaning towards Crowder and R-Jax for this season, but maybe Crowder and Hood if long-term value is more of a concern.

      I’d actually give Rondo some serious consideration over one of these guys if there is any reason to believe he can come close to replicating last season’s production. You already have one half of the Brick Bros.. so Rondo can’t hurt you that badly from the FT line! He also helps to shore up your lack of assists. I’m thinking he just might be the most valuable player to your team build in this field of four if he can replicate last season, but I just don’t know what to expect from him in Chicago?

      I doubt Slim or JB will give a glowing recommendation for him though and I’d probably stay clear of him myself just to avoid the risk.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Slimcompoop: @Ryan: Thanks for listening man! Haha, yeah it was a long thread. I am leaning 3 for Durant right now, but it’s still unsure, I would say def top 4, no question vs. the field. I could see the argument for Curry/Harden/Westy though.

        I’m a little more worried than that tbh for Oladipo. Now, if Westbrook is gone, then you’re talking that value. But with Westbrook there, I dunno, not like he’s the shooter Durant is.

        Haha damn you’re right, I gave up too early too! I’ve had some big games in Y pickup ball lately, maybe I’ll be scouted!

        I think I would go Rjax and Crowder as well. Feel better on Crowder. Jackson is still signed for a while there too, so I think he’s just as good a long term play.

        Hah yeah, I’m not big on Rondo. I think he might be closer to the Dallas numbers than SAC numbers haha

        • Slimcompoop says:
          (link)

          @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the feedback. So it looks as if Crowder is a consensus seventh keeper.

          I agree with you on Rondo in Chicago. He needs to have the floor spread and the ball in his hands to put up the kind of stats that he did last year in Sacramento. That’s not happening in Chicago.

          R-Jax will put up better fantasy numbers than Hood in 2016/2017, but I just remember him being so inconsistent towards the end of last year (e.g., some nights he even got benched) that it worries me. Maybe I’ll look to move him for a pick?

          Thanks for the advice.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @Slimcompoop: Crowd-Sourcing! new team name idea??? Yeah I’m def good moving R-Jax, but he is pretty capable and signed a while. I thought his benchings were earlier in the year… can’t remember now though, hopefully they’re in the past! Signing Ish Smith doesn’t help tho…

  10. jay says:
    (link)

    Just some comments on 3 of those Warriors Big 4. They will all suit up for the Olympics (KD, Dray, KT). Dray and KT with long seasons incl playoffs. KD same minus the 7 games of the Finals. Gotta think if they don’t look for another regular record breaking season, could really affect minutes for them in the 2nd 1/2 of the season especially if the assumption that they blow out teams a lot more often than not. With how players seem to be benched for seemingly minor injuries nowadays, I always worry about those that play in international tournaments during the offseason. May not affect Dray and KT as they have less mileage on them but for KD, something to maybe take note of as well.

    NBA games played. stats from ESPN:
    KD: 641
    Dray: 321
    KT: 386

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @jay: Hmmmm very interesting. I def have been arguing for the KD minutes being low. I think we’re already seeing Curry at his low minutes, he didn’t play in the 4th a lot. I’m having trouble not going Curry 1 Harden 2. KD is def top 4. I’m flip flopping him and Westbrook every other thought haha

      • Jay says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Been redoing (and redoing, and redoing…) my top 4 ever since KD went to Oakland, and until proven otherwise, I think the safest assumption is…

        1. Curry (just too much efficiency and otherworldly goodness, even with a ~5-7 drop in PPG)
        2. Harden (as crazy as it sounds, I think he maintains or surpasses his averages from last year with D’Antoni as the coach)
        3. Westbrook (the real question here… but I think you start off better with Russ in a punt FG build than KD this season in a no punt build – and I doubt Westbrook gets traded to a talent-heavy roster where his stats take a drastic hit)
        4. Durant (just too many mouths to feed in GS… and Steph is still going to be on the ball the most)

        Additionally – and I know you and Slim are going to despise the pick – but I think that if I had the fifth pick, I’m going with LeBron over KAT. Sure, KAT is younger and has tremendous upside, but picking KAT means that one of your next two picks almost has to be a PG. With LeBron, ESPECIALLY in a FT% punt build, all your bases are covered from the start outside of maybe blocks and threes, but going with LeBron gives you the obvious out of position PG level assists from a SF AND gives you tremendous flexibility with your next two picks. Also wouldn’t be all that surprised to be honest if LeBron gets drafted before KD in some leagues.

        Am I too high on LeBron? Obviously he’s turning 32, but he’s still LeBron and still extremely durable, his averages from this past season were still super elite, and we all know the level he took them to in the playoffs. Not the sexiest first pick anymore by any means, but he’s still an extremely efficient and safe pick that makes it easier to build a winning roster around.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Jay: Definitely with you on 1 and 2. Def think it’s more like 3-4 Pts drop for Curry, but that’s quibbling. Agree on harden with D’Antoni!

          Thing for me is if Westbrook stay in OKC by opening night. If so, he drops to 4. If he’s traded, I might have him 3. I think a mid-season trade will REALLLLY hurt.

          LeBron – def feels like a pick that high would be someone overweighing the postseason. He was 9th in per-game on BBM. Sure KAT was 12, but he improved and was bigger down the stretch. Agree mostly on durability, he did freak everyone out with the back thing early last year though haha.

          I think there are PG to be had in the 2nd round (Lowry, Wall, Lillard) that would fit great with KAT, plus benchings in H2H playoffs……

  11. jay says:
    (link)

    Anthony Davis

    Just checking in to get a sentiment check. Anyone thinks this year might be the year that his health holds up? I mean it did take Steph Curry a few seasons to get that ankle problem sorted out.

    What pick in the 1st round does AD start to become a steal? 8th-9th?

Comments are closed.