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I’ve got to say, growing up a huge Charlotte Hornets fan, I am going to finally have a favorite team again next year.  I mean, the Bobcats is such a horrific name for a professional sports team that it actually made me not cheer for them.  If they follow my logic – citizens of New Orleans, I’m sorry, you’re no longer cheering for your NBA team.

If you missed it the other night, the 2013 NBA Draft Lottery was selected (coincidentally right when a huge Powerball was built up and won – conspiracy?!) with the Cleveland Cavaliers winning another #1 pick.  Nerlens Noel, or Captain N as I’m going to call him, looks like he’s heading to one of basketball’s friendliest cities.  Just don’t leave for another team in a televised special.  Honestly, my first thought was, “great, another talented player I have to navigate through injury estimates with.”

Anyway, I doubt any NBA rookies will crack the top 100 for fantasy this year, it’s a pretty weak draft class, but that’s why these way too early rankings will be capped at 100 before readdressed closer to the season when they’ll expand to 200.  As always with rankings this early, it’s May, the Finals haven’t even started yet, and there will be a lot of revisions.  But here’s how I see things shaking out as of right now:

 

51. Kemba Walker - Go Hornets!  I’m sure Walker will have more buzz (see what I did there) in a lot of other rankings, but he’s just not that caliber of player.  The 2.0 Stls a game were awesome, but he shot under 30% from 3 in the 2nd half and had a lot of struggling games.  I see him being a bust if picked in the top 50.

52. Greg Monroe – Man, the hate I’ve been getting from a few commenters not having Monroe in the top 50. Random fact, 52 is my lucky number!  Wait, so does that mean this pick will be right, or Monroe will be awesome?  That’s up to you to decide, but I see a guy that has to vie for the rock with the emergence of Andre Drummond (who I’m not the biggest fan of either but he is going to get a lot of front court minutes) and had a lot of red flags last year.  A FG% that dropped 3.5% (and he only made 0.1 more FG a game, so it’s not like it was due to taking a ton more shots being an offensive focal point), a FT% dropping 5%, 2.9 TOs a game and a microscopic block total for a big.  I watched 5-6 Pistons games last year and Monroe seemed to always pull a disappearing act.  I’m avoiding.

53. George Hill - A solid season for Hill, just wish he could dime a bit more.  But he turns the ball over so friggin’ little!

54. Tobias Harris – Since taking over Razzball Basketball, I’ve written ad nauseum on Harris.  I like the kid a lot.  His ranking is going to be one of the most volatile this preseason, but right now, I think Harris has won himself a starting SF gig.  His numbers with the Magic were obviously mind-boggling, but that was on an injury ravaged lost team.  However, he is an across the board, rainbow line gold mine, and I think even with 4-5 fewer minutes can finish the year around here.  Playing with fire, but I love the upside.

55. Chandler Parsons - Continues to improve in all categories in one of the best success rates from a 2nd-round pick in his first two seasons.  I love the Rockets to continue improving across the board, and Parsons to be an excellent mid-round, across the board selection.

56. Chris Bosh - Like Parsons, does a little bit of it all but from the 5 spot, however declining rebounds keeps him from being a higher pick from me.  Tough to get many more boards when LeBron and Wade are hitting everything though!

57. Ryan Anderson - While he is better than your run-of-a-mill ThrAGNOF, Anderson still for some reason didn’t start over Robin Lopez, but was in that off the bench, more minutes role.  Just doesn’t do enough of anything else to justify a higher ranking even though he hits so many 3′s out of position.

58. Bradley Beal - A huge rookie season for Beal, but unfortunately, only while he was on the court for 56 games.  Still, the upside is huge for a sophomore breakout, especially with John Wall, who I love, driving and dishing.  Showed promise that he might be able to be a rainbow line aficionado as well.

59. Pau Gasol – Howard’s return plays a huge factor in this ranking, and right now I’m guessing he does, knocking Gasol down a bit.  Listen, I think he still does have gas left in the tank (see what I did there?), but injury concerns still linger.  Plus declining FG% and Rebs aren’t inspiring.  Will move way up if Howard moves on, especially with no Kobe for a while either.

60. Klay Thompson – The end of year shooting slump has me scared, which is why he’s lower than a few rankings I’ve seen by comparison.  He destroyed a lot of playoff pushes and was borderline droppable at the end of the year.  ThrAGNOF!

61. Goran Dragic – The Phoenix Suns were a joke last year.  After playing well, he got arbitrarily benched for a couple of games, but there’s tons of optimism from (thank god) new GM Ryan McDonough and current interim coach Lindsey Hunter.  The big breakout didn’t happen last year, but I think it could be coming this year.  May move up depending on some of the Suns’ offseason moves.

62. Paul Millsap – Millsap looks like he’s changing homes, so tough to rank him higher or lower than here.  Still a quality player, but if moved to the right location, could move up. 

63. Jeff Green - If Garnett retires, Green may very well move into the top 50.  Flashed some absolutely unbelievable games when he started, and I think everyone that is involved with the Celtics knows he needs to become a focal point.  Will be even more paramount while Rondo is out.  Loving the hype.

64. David West - West thrived his second year with the Pacers, dramatically improving every major stat and still able to deliver across all categories.  Safe and reliable as it comes.

65. Zach Randolph - A guy that seems to be on my team a lot of seasons as a value pick, continues to be a steady scoring/boarding option, despite getting up there in age.

66. Monta Ellis – A nice bounce back year for Ellis, who returned to over 2 Stls a game, tied a career-high in assists a game, and continues to be one of the most electric guards in the game.  However, as of right now, it’s uncertain where he’s going and at this point I think it’s out of Milwaukee and somewhere where he’s going to get a tad less rock.  That’s obviously speculation, and Ellis’ ranking will surely alter once we know where he’s headed.

67. DeMar DeRozan - Rudy Gay obviously becomes the #1 scoring option, but DeRozan actually thrived with another star in the fold.  Struggling out of the gate, DeRozan actually averaged 1.5 more Pts and 0.5 Asts after the All-Star break once Gay arrived, plus shot 3% better from the field and 2% better from deep.  I have a lot of faith in the Raptors to be a surprise team next year (see Luminescent Lithuanian), with DeRozan banking on that contract without the pressure of having to be the go-to guy.

68. Derrick Favors - Still a bit raw, Favors has all the potential in the world and may be looking at a starting gig in Utah.  In only 23 minutes a game last year he was 9.4/7.1 with 1.7 blocks a game.  He’s uber-athletic, a real force down low, and I think could be a 13/11 guy with 2.5 blocks a game, which would be a huge value in the middle rounds.  Very high on him.

69. Gerald Henderson - Listen, with my admitted Charlotte (re)Hornets fandom, I might be buying a little too steep, but Henderson’s run down the stretch was pretty unreal.  His second half of 18.9/4.0/3.4/1.0/0.6 should have a lot of people interested.  All he needs is consistent starting minutes, which I think he’s earned despite a high draft pick coming into the mix.

70. Jimmy Butler – After the Bulls virtually set up a triage in their locker room for players dropping like flies, Butler became a solid constant, playing 48 minutes virtually every playoff game.  There is a logjam with Luol Deng still in the fold, but I have a feeling he gets moved and/or the find a way to give the uber-durable Butler a starting gig.

71. Tristan Thompson – There is a big concern that his numbers across the final four months were much improved (aka Anderson Varejao was out), but every time I watched TT I thought he looked better and better.  A conservative double-double a night plus at least 2 Asts, 1 Stl and 1 Blk on the low end has me seeing a ton of upside (11.7/9.4/1.3/0.7/0.9 last year).

72. Andre Iguodala - Love Iguodala as a player, and his defensive prowess and fast break acumen make him a better real-life player than in fantasy.  However, he’s still a big-time contributor to your squad and should have another solid season.

73. Anderson Varejao - The league’s leading rebounder in the first quarter unfortunately went down with injuries, which is why I can’t bear to take him any higher than this.  That said, he was averaging 3.4 Asts a game, absurd in that it would’ve doubled his career-high, along with 14/14 a game.  Even though I will probably be passing, there is tons of upside here.

74. Wilson Chandler - It all comes down to the Danilo Gallinari ACL tear, which depending on his recovery time, will give Chandler 2-4 months of starting time.  Like Jeff Green, we saw tons of upside with big minutes, and in a starting gig, could be a monster in the first half.

75. Kyle Lowry - Have I mentioned I’m all in on the Raptors?  Four guys in the top 75?!  What is this, Podcast Host Nick’s rankings?  I know the points were down, but he’s going to have so many wide open 3′s with Gay and DeRozan slashing to the lane, he’s gonna top 6 Asts a game again, nab 1.5 Stls and get a block here and there (averaged 0.4 Blks a game last year) which helps at PG.  The back issues are a concern though.

76. JR Smith - I’m probably going to get yelled at for this ranking, but despite setting a career-high in scoring and thriving in the Knicks offense, I see a wildly inconsistent player on a team that I think will be dysfunctional next year.  We saw it in the playoffs.

77. Eric Bledsoe - This obviously assumes Bledsoe gets traded and nabs a starting job.  Which I think he does.  That run he had when Chris Paul got hurt was absolutely unreal, in 9 starts from January 22 to February 4 he scored double-digits in every single game, 3+ assists every game (averaged 5.8), a block in every single game (1.6/game) and 2.4 steals a game.  If the starting gig in the right place is set up before I adjust the rankings before the season, expect there to be a lot of Bledsoe love, and I’ll be in the wave.

78. O.J. Mayo - An absolute resurrection moving to Dallas, Mayo returned to his rookie and sophomore year form and averaged a career-high assists.  If the Mavs bring in a few big-ticket free agents, he’ll move down though.

79. Andre Drummond – I must hate the Pistons, as I believe I’ll be lower on both their bigs than most rankers.  You love the blocks and boards, I could see 2 and 10 a game respectively, but the offense is so raw and the playing time so ungaurenteed that I won’t pick Drummond before here.

80. Kenneth Faried - I love Faried. Love, love, love him.  Hard to believe this guy didn’t average 10 boards a game last year but was close and a steal and a block a game were nice.  But he gets virtually no assists, doesn’t shoot threes, and shoots only 61% from the stripe, keeping him from vaulting higher for me.

81. Glen Davis - Injuries have been tough on Big Baby, but before breaking his foot, Davis was well on his way to a breakout season.  Can hit on every stat category, will be one of the Magic’s go-to scorer (still think Tobias will be right there with him though) and will be overlooked by a lot of owners on draft day.

82. Marcin Gortat - The Ten Foot Pole – my new nickname for the Polish (not Latvian!) center – had a disappointing season last year, culminating in injuries keeping him out of almost the entire last two months.  That said, I think there’s still something here.  Another season to gel with Goran Dragic (tough to lose Steve Nash as your table-setter) and an additional year for this dysfunctional team to actually try and win games and I think Gortat can bounce back to 2011-12 numbers.  There is a possibility he’ll be shopped, so stay tuned. 

83. Luol Deng –  While technically still the starter over Jimmy Butler, this mysterious illness during the playoffs is concerning to me, along with other injury concerns and the fact the Bulls will probably shop him.  Nothing really impresses me too much, but can contribute across the board.  Will readdress once we know if he’s back in the Windy City or elsewhere.

84. Thaddeus Young - Not a big fan of the Sixers, their offense was a mess most of the time last year, but Young set career highs in Rebs, Asts and Stls and tied it in Blks.  A solid, safe pick that a lot of people may not want to make, but I like the value.

85. Joe Johnson - Johnson’s numbers came down across the board moving to Brooklyn, but were still very serviceable.   Nothing really sticks out for me though to want to reach any higher.  I don’t see any improvements on last years’ stats.

86. Eric Gordon – The injury bug did more than bite Gordon the past few season, they implanted in his knees and have kept him from bouncing back.  That said, when on the court he was solid last year.  Yea he shot worse from the field and won’t get virtually any boards, but I think will hit some threes, he showed he can still drive in the NO games I watched last year, and I think if he can get past getting benched on back-to-back games will return this kind of value.

87. Gordon Hayward - A solid season for the esteemed Butler grad, who at times became the Jazz’s go-to player last season.  Another year of improvements, including a drastic improvement in 3-point shooting, has me excited.

88. Jeremy Lin - Anyone who reached for the Linsanity probably isn’t going to revisit having him on their team, but Lin was still a usable player and I think improves with a full offseason with running mate James Harden.  I won’t break the bank for him, but slight improvements across most categories and a high Stls tally has me liking him here.

89. Wesley Matthews - A little bit of a ThrAGNOF, but before last season’s ankle injury, played in every single game his team had taken the floor.

90. Carlos Boozer -  Prerequisite - hate Boozer as a player.  Always yelling, if not at other players then at the refs, if not at the refs then just out loud to no one.  Very FRUSTRATING AHHHHH!  Just kidding, but Boozer won’t end up on any of my teams unless he falls about this far down.  Yeah the scoring and boards are nice, but doesn’t do virtually anything else and shot 5.5% worse from the field last year compared to 2011-12.  Injury concerns and his old age have me cashing out.

91. Raymond Felton - After starting the season hot, Felton broke his hand and never returned to early season form whence returning.  The scoring overall was up a smidge compared to the last few season for him, but the assists were down and I wouldn’t spend more than a 10th-round pick on him.

92. Andrew Bogut - You’re crossing your fingers for a healthy season, because if you get that, you’re loving the value here.  Yeah he didn’t score – like at all – last year, but can do everything else – and exceedingly well for a big man.  And if his minutes go up from 24 a game like last season to 30, it’ll be a huge boost.

93. Tyreke Evans - Dude has all the talent in the world, but just can’t seem to get it all together like he did in his rookie season.  Before looking at his year end stats I had thought he bounced back a little, but the opposite was the case.  Sure a good amount of that can be attributed to losing over 3 minutes a game, partially due to some injuries, but I don’t see him bouncing back to those earlier years.

94. Omer Asik - Asik was solid, even if a tad underwhelming in his first season as starter, averaging a double-double a game but doing nothing else special and sinking your FT%.

95. Kevin Garnett - Possible retirement looming, if I had to draft today I wouldn’t touch KG.  Another ranking that will be readdressed when we’re closer to the preseason.

96. J.J. Hickson - A really underrated player for what he does, I was able to nab Hickson with my last pick in virtually all 10-team leagues last year and he delivered.  Got a double-double a night, shot over 56% from the floor and surprised a lot of people.  The question is where he lands and if he’ll still have a starting gig.  If Portland and yes, then right around here is where I’ll have him, if anywhere else and no, it’s obviously bye bye top 100.

97. Jameer Nelson - The injury risk is always gonna be there, but when he was on the floor Nelson was pretty solid.  Given a lot of that time was without Glen Davis vying for shots late and without Tobias Harris early, but Nelson set career-highs in 3s a game, Asts and Stls.  There’s a tad of upside here, but I don’t want to invest too much.

98. Mo Williams - Like Nelson, injuries have been abound for Mo-Will the past few seasons, but still is a top 100 player for me.  What he’s lost with his 3-point stroke he’s gained in assists.

99. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - It was an up and down rookie season for the young now-Hornet, but he’s only 19 (he’ll turn 20 right before next season starts) and oozes potential.  A lot will be factored in with the Hornets’ draft and off-season moves, but he has the upside to really deliver a solid multi-cat season.

100. Jamal Crawford - Faded in the 2nd half with a few nagging injuries, but still a big scorer and a glorified enough ThrAGNOF to round out the top 100.

 

I could write a whole another 1,000 words on guys just out of these rankings, but I’ll let the comments flow with the players who are out.  As mentioned above, I won’t be going back to the rankings until about two months before opening night, and they will expand to 200 – along with breakdowns by position.  Enjoy the summer and the offseason Razzball Nation!

17 Responses

  1. James Redacted

    James Redacted says:
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    Bosh – I think you’re underselling Bosh’s efficiency. Shot 54% from the floor and 80% from the line. Yeah, it’d be nice to have a couple more rebounds but I usually find boards easy to come by. I think I’d slot him around the 30-40 range.

    Iggy – He’s one of those guys where if I drafted someone like Josh Smith I’d want on my team (and would draft higher than the slot you gave him) but if my team didnt fit him I’d avoid completely.

    DeRozan – I hate this guy. Points and FT% help. Awful 3 pt shooter and yeah 45% FG isn’t terrible but with the amount of shots he takes it’ll drag it down (and he doesnt even make 3′s to make up for the hit in FG). Maybe if he stopped shooting 3′s and turned into the Golden State Corey Maggette then I’d find him more useful. What an awful contract.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @James Redacted: First of all, turn into Corey Maggette? Haha no one wants that! I keed, I keed, I just hate them Dookies. I just think the Raptors have something cooking and really impressed by his numbers with Gay there. Bosh definitely is uber consistent, but also I think he’s closer to the 0.6-0.8 Blks a game (2 and 3 years ago) instead of 1.4 from last year, which I want from my bigs. Definitely will take those into advisory when re-ranking!

  2. Fenris-77 says:
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    Glen Davis seems mighty high at 81. Dude’s really not that good and the chances are decent that the Wiz draft a rook who’s going to steal some of his sunshine. I don’t like his peripherals enough to pick him this high, even if I though he was going to play more or less starter’s minutes (and I don’t, so…).

    @James – DeRozan is a tough call for next year. He did improve playing next to Gay, but he’s going to have to add a corner three to be of any fantasy use IMO.

    • James Redacted

      James Redacted says:
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      @Fenris-77: I assume you mean the Magic and not the Wiz. Agree on Davis.

      • Fenris-77 says:
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        @James Redacted: Exactly as you say. I got all Gandalfed up there, with Wizards using magic and whatnot, and zigged when I should have zagged.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Fenris-77: Tough to know when to zig rather than zag, imagine zigging and zagging for 100 picks! Haha, then it’ll grow to 200 with rookies and some serious scrubs rounding it out. Seems I am high on DeRozan, just like I said above, see him being undervalued. Agree on the Magic situation, a lot will depend on who they draft, plus they’ll have Afflalo and Harkless who didn’t break my top 100 who will get time. I still think either way Davis & Vucevic will get some of the bigger minutes, leaving Tobias Harris who I love probably losing a lot of love. Thanks for the feedback guys and thanks for reading!

      • Fenris-77 says:
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        @JB Gilpin: I’d agree that DeRozan will be undervalued. He had the scoring going already heading into drafts last season and went hella’ late in lot of respectable drafts. I think the real question is by how much will he be undervalued? You have to be positing some sort of major bump in a category he’s lousy in now IMO. His stats, both counting and advanced, were nearly identical from last year and the year before, and I think it’s maybe too much to expect different results unless he becomes a more well-rounded fantasy player. A small bump in the %s is helpful, but I think he needs a real bump in 3′s or Stl to make a major value leap.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Fenris-77: Well first off, I disagree that they were nearly identical, shot 2.2% better from three (still 28.3% which blows though haha) 2.3% better from the field (while taking a few more and making a few more shots) .6 more boards, .5 more asts, and yes, he played a minute and a half more a game boosting those last few, but the percentages were nice, including less turnovers so a nice Ast/TO boost. Then the second half, when Gay was there, 3 PT % up to 29.7, 2.9% better from the field than the first half, and I think can even improve on those second half numbers getting used to playing with Gay and he is younger. But I hear ya, maybe he’s a shade too high, will definitely reassess on reranking, thanks for reading!

  3. Don O. says:
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    Thank you for some much needed fantasy bball material during these slowest of times for new articles and rankings! I agree with many of your rankings but don’t think I could ever bring myself to pick Big Baby over KG until the latter officially signs his retirement papers. My question is of the keeper variety. $200 budget, 5 keepers, 3 of which are no-brainers. My last 2 spots come down to Jrue Holiday ($11), Bledsoe ($1), Green ($1), Sanders ($1), or Tristan Thompson ($1). Any input would be much appreciated!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Don O.: Thanks man! Why I wanted to put out some early rankings for food for thought. Agree, I will probably move KG up once we know he’s playing and indeed in Boston. But until them I’m hedging a bit since we’re this far out. When is your deadline? I think in the right situation, Bledsoe is a good choice. I’m down a bit on Holiday, so I go Green and Sanders. I know I have Bledsoe behind Thompson right now, but that’s another hedge until we know where Bledsoe ends up. I’ll be reranking ~2 months before the season with all those factored as well, thanks again for stopping by!

      • Don O. says:
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        @JB Gilpin: The deadline is just prior to the season, so I certainly have plenty of time to mull it over. My 3 definite keepers are Rose, Wall, and Batum for a combined $18, which might make one lean towards keeping at least 1 big since my backcourt looks to be solid, but I kind of think best value should take precedence since there figure to be about 20 of your top 30 available at auction based on our keeper rules, so finding quality big men shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Not going to lie though, my heart still says Holiday even if my head is warning otherwise.

        Also had a question about the rookie class. Hard to say right now since we’re pre-draft, but do you think MKG is a markedly better option than any of the top wings entering the league (McLemore, Porter, Burke, Oladipo), or is experience his main asset when compared to them? I was super high on MKG last year and am hoping for improvement across the board, but it was mighty tough to roster him at times last year.

        Lastly, any thoughts on Kanter? If one of Utah’s big men leaves could he be close to a double double with 1.5 blocks as soon as next year?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Don O.: With the increased money, I buy that strategy getting Holiday. Although I definitely will say don’t do it if Bynum is in Philly and looks primed for a solid season as he’ll take a lot of scoring. I would definitely take MKG over all the rookies barring some sort of weird situation where a rook will get all the offensive love. I like Kanter, but I love Favors. He’ll take the starters’ role if one leaves. Favors will be double-double with 2.5-3 blks.

  4. Fenris-77 says:
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    Really? The best Favors have ever managed even rated out to per36 stats is last season’s 2.6Blk/36. Since he only averaged 23.2mpg last year the smart money is on that number shrinking slightly, not jumping by a pretty substantial margin if he gets more minutes (because that’s normally how that shizz goes). Only five guys managed 2+ Blk per in the NBA last year and I think it’s pretty optimistic to think Favors will in that club next year, even if he does see a minutes boost. I think it makes more sense to pencil him in for 2 Blk per or a little less, and go home very happy if he manages anything beyond that.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Fenris-77: Sounds like I’m going home happy and you’re going home snarky again :)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Fenris-77: But seriously he was a raw player coming into the league and I saw big improvements as the season went on at the eye level.

      • Fenris-77 says:
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        @JB Gilpin: I’ll give you that, but it still doesn’t change his chances of blocking quite that many shots. Even if you have him valued for full time minutes and 2 blocks per you’ll probably still draft him ahead of most people, which is the whole point right? I don’t think I want to pump his draft stock up any higher than it needs to be for me to land him more often than not in a competitive league (for those targeting him at all of course).

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Fenris-77: Yup sounds like we both like him!

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