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Welcome to my second round.  The second round is on me!  That way I can buy all cheaper/low-shelf swill and not look like a cheapskate [underutilized word].  Seriously, try that next time you’re out.  Well, to be honest it only really works on the 8th or 9th round.  “What is in this snake juice?!” “It’s basically rat poison!”  “Baba Booey!”

So these guys are all still elite talents, just have those lingering question marks that would have me passing on them.  I know you’re all gonna yell at Paul George being a second rounder for me, I have comment ESP!  Here’s how I see the remainder of the top 20 with off-season adjustments (previous ranks from my Off-Season Rankings are in parentheses before this re-rank):

(11) 11. Kevin Love - Not much has changed for me with Love through the offseason, he has first-round ability but the long line of injury question marks keeps him in the 2nd-round for me.  As I said in the previous rankings early in Summer, if Love has a healthy preseason, he may hopscotch his way into the bottom end of the first round.

(12) 12. Derrick Rose - Copy-cat analysis from above, MVP talent but we haven’t seen him on the court except shoot arounds in his sweats since 2011-12.  I’m just thankful that there won’t be any requests for my projection when I think Rose will be back.  He better not get hurt again this year!

(14) ↑ 13. Paul George - Yup.  Go ahead.  I know it’s coming.  Listen, I don’t dislike Paul George all that much, I just still maintain he will be overrated and another owner will pull the trigger before I will.  It was an outstanding 2012-13 season, but for those of you that live and die on Basketball Monster’s rankings he was 18th in per-game value, narrowly below Russell Westbrook.  Boom – roasted!  He hops up to 12th in overall value, but that’s about right to me and where he is in my rankings.  There’s also the lingering questions around Danny Granger, who I have no faith in as a fantasy contributor individually, but he will be out there and siphon a smidgen of production as well.  Don’t overpay for the emerging star.

(9) ↓ 14. Deron Williams - With the huge Celtics deal bringing in Paul Pierce and KG, it’s as crowded an offense as we’ll see in the East.  Williams was brutal early last year, and still ended the season averaging only 7.7 Asts, the lowest since his rookie season and a full assist fewer a game than 2012-13.  I see that number plunging even deeper with all the playmakers on that team.  Sure he set a career-high in 3′s a game (2.2/per) as a positive takeaway from the plummeting assist figure, but there’s no way I see him making over 2 a game this year with Pierce and Garnett added to that lineup.

(16) ↑ 15. Ricky Rubio - Reports from Eurobasket 2013 are that Rubio’s jumper looks vastly improved and I think we’re going to see a breakout season from the Spaniard.  I already had him ranked pretty high, so not much has changed.

(21) ↑ 16. Al Horford – J Smoove moving to Detroit opens up even more scoring upside for Horford, who I think becomes an elite center this year.  He was already on that cusp after 17.4/10.2 last year – and you can easily argue he already is elite depending on your definition parameters – but what really impresses me is he took 2.3 more shots a game than his previous career high and his FG% remained nearly 55%.  Really excited for the Jeff Teague/Horford two-headed monster in ATL, with Paul Millsap helping more down low as opposed to Josh Smith’s frequent departures to the perimeter.  Smith is still the better fantasy asset, but I think Millsap will better fit the Hawks system.

(17) 17. Dwayne Wade - Not much changing on Wade, but as I mentioned in my original ranks, he set a career-high FG% and despite other categories sinking a tad, great mid-2nd value.

(26) ↑ 18. Al Jefferson - I was slightly down on Jefferson in my previous rankings, but the move the Charlotte was probably the best fantasy destination he could land.  The Bobcats have absolutely nothing else down low unless Cody Zeller can emerge in a big way (read: very unlikely), so I’m seeing hoards of boards and interior opportunities.  As I stated in the Central Division’s Movers & Shakers, I expect Big Al to get closer to his 2011-12 19.2/9.6 a game than his slightly down 2012-13 17.8/9.2.

(18) ↓ 19. Damian Lillard - Still a late 2nd-rounder, I think Lillard improves his FG% in his sophomore campaign and having another ball-handler on the court with him at times with the acquisition of Mo Williams will only help his offensive output.  Another big year is coming.

(19) ↓ 20. Carmelo Anthony - While his per-game numbers were first-round valuable, nagging injuries kept Carmelo to only 67 games dropping his overall value.  Sure he was the NBA’s leading scorer, but he just doesn’t do enough of anything else (6.9 Rebs 2.6 Asts 0.8 Stls 0.5 Blks) for me to rank him higher than the last 2nd-rounder off the board.

Dropped Out: Brook Lopez, Josh Smith

I’ll be rounding out the top 50 by mid-week, so feel free to give suggestions, comments, hate mail my way until then!

18 Responses

  1. John says:
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    No L.A. in the top 20? I thought he will be better than Al Horford. Anyway, you can do no wrong with either of them. Do you think Portland will eventually trade L.A.? By that, it will hurt his fantasy value. If Rubio can improve his %FG that will be great. I’m expecting Nicolas Batum somewhere 17-20. What do you think of Tristan Thompson? Will he still Cavs starting PF? Can he still crack his last year stats and play his last year minutes? Who is the better pick up Korver, Nate, Tristan, Marion or Harkless? Is Harkless a fantasy material after all? I heard he is moving to SG this year. Great read again. Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @John: I had Aldridge and Batum both just out of the top 20 in the last rankings and they will be right there again in the updated top 50 (http://basketball.razzball.com/way-too-early-rankings-top-50-for-2013-2014) Agree a trade will hurt his value, I think it would only happen if the Blazers are really, really tanking. I like Thompson from a skills standpoint, but probably won’t be drafting him with how deep that frontcourt is. Like him the most of the guys you mention though. I think Harkless will get an uptick once the Magic move Afflalo, probably a trade deadline move since it didn’t happen this offseason. Thanks for reading!

  2. James Redacted

    James Redacted says:
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    I think Rubio has played something like 4 games and is shooting 41.9% (2-4 from 3). I’d hold off on claiming an improved jumpshot. No way I’m touching him in the 2nd round.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @James Redacted: What I’ve read in various reports is it looks better at the eye level making a technical adjustment, I’m not going off a specific statline. Then again it is Euro ball and not the NBA yet. I’m happy with his ranking.

      • James Redacted

        James Redacted says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Ok, so what do you think his statline will be this year?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @James Redacted: 16/5/9.5 2.5 Stls, shoots 41-42% hits a 3 a game

          • John says:
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            @JB Gilpin: I hope he does that. Damn. The points is too high given that the Wolves added some scoring players this offseason.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @John: Yup I’m high on him, as I said to James, think he gets closer to 36-37 mins a night and is unleashed. Love and Pek will get their pts, K-Mart will spot up on the perimeter, then there’s no one else that’s a big scorer, not high on Shabazz

          • James Redacted

            James Redacted says:
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            @JB Gilpin: That’s quite an increase in nearly all areas. I find the 16 ppg and 5 boards the hardest to buy with Kevin Love being healthy and Kevin Martin now on the team. If he reaches that line then yea sure he’ll be worth a 2nd rounder.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @James Redacted: Yeah K-Mart will add scoring, I agree I am bullish, but think he can do that. He didn’t even play 30 minutes a game last year off the knee injury, think he’ll be unleashed.

  3. ETMcgee says:
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    I’m a little surprised that you have lillard as the 1st blazer off the board and have aldridge/batum outside the top 20. Aldridge has back to back 1st round value in the past 2 years, so not really sure how he’s outside the top 20 when he is still the best option on the team and a very consistent fantasy player for several years.

    Batum is in line for a 16/5/5 with 2+ 3′s and 1blk/1stl and decent FG/good FT, which is incredibly useful in fantasy (especially if u can play him at the SG). He was a top 10 player until he hurt his wrist, and still ended up a mid-late 2nd round value. Since batum contributes across the board, his floor is quite high (and if his FG% goes up with a healthy wrist, he could easily end up a top 10 player).

    Lillard might be a lot closer to his ceiling already than people realize (he played so many minutes last year, which will go down some with an actual backup like PG Mo Williams/Mccollum). I like lillard a little later unless he shows that he can actually play some defense and contribute something in at least the steals category (i’m a roto player).

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @ETMcgee: I think he will improve, and Batum and LA are literally 20 and 21 right where they were in previous ranks. LA has slight trade concerns, Batum the wrist issues. I know above I talk up Rubio with a score increase, but I don’t see Batum improving on a career-high 14.3 a game we saw last year to 16, I see the 3s going down with those guards taking a few of those opportunities. I’ll let others draft those guys.

  4. I like the Al Jefferson bump!

    I gotta ask though, why so high on Derrick Rose. Even when he was MVP he couldn’t crack the top 20 for fantasy. Terrific player, but I don’t see the value at 12.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @RotoGold: I see him diming even more this year and stealing more. The Bulls are just so bad playmaking wise without him that he’s going to have the rock non stop – definitely a bit of a reach but I’m elite PG reacher this yr

  5. Michael B says:
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    You may even be underselling Jefferson’s boards at 9.6. With that offense and now he doesn’t have to fight for boards with Millsap, Favors and even Kanter, I’m thinking 10.5. Is that crazy? I normally load up on PGs early, but Jefferson may be too tempting. I bet he adds 4-5 extra minutes per game from last year.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Michael B: Not crazy in the least. I still wonder how well his aging body can handle the up tempo pace Kemba/MKG/Henderson are going to push for in terms of sheer boarding. Why I’m thinking a shade under 10 but barely. Your point on the minutes is spot on though, no one else is going to push for minutes. If I took one of those points in the 1st, I may indeed go Jefferson over say Rubio, depends on roster construction. Thanks for stopping by!

  6. Jonathan F says:
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    Do you drop out Lopez for his injury or because of Pierce and Garnett signing to the Nets?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jonathan F: Mix of both, mostly the latter. No way he scores close to what he did, rebounds won’t go up, less minutes, then the foot injury. I went as far as dropping him out of my top 50, just don’t see it at all anymore.

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