Another week of NBA is in the books. One thing we know so far this year is that Golden State Warriors are playing better then last year and it looks like they are heading for a finals rematch against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Last week I kinda went on a little rant and the feedback I got was really positive. So keep the comments coming and questions coming. On Thursday we had some news come down from Maura Healey the Attorney General of Massachusetts. Unlike New York last week, Massachusetts wants to regulate the DFS industry and that is what the states should be doing. In there she says you need be 21 years old to play. When I heard this, I was like “you gotta be kidding me.” So you can defend your country, vote for the leader of this great nation, get married, raise a child, purchase state run lotto tickets, gamble at the horse tracks, and go down to your local convenience store to buy cigarettes but can’t play a $5 double up. Am I the only who thinks this is wrong? Then she wants to limit you to a $1,000 deposit a month unless you can prove you can prove you can sustain more of a loss. Oh really? Are they limiting the amount of money you can spend on their lottery each week? No they aren’t. There are some good things in there like not letting site employees/contractors play on the site, limit multi-entries, and getting rid of scripting. This should’ve been done a long time ago by the sites. Also, it says entries cannot be changed after the start of the contest. This seems to be end of the late swap feature on Draft Kings, which if you didn’t know is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts. She goes on to say that she considers DFS gambling, but legal under Massachusetts state law. I don’t agree with that if you go by the true definition of gambling. You can read the whole story over at legalsportsreport.com. Ok, enough news let’s get on with the 6 evening games:Please, blog, may I have some more?
After witnessing the Philadelphia lose their eleventh straight contest this year, needless to say, it certainly takes balls to be a 76ers fan right now. I’m not referring to testicular fortitude or alpha masculinity, but rather literally, to the ping pong balls of hope known as the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery. With the possibility of multiple lottery picks in the 2016 Draft, it’s going to be okay Philadelphia fans. Put down your weapons, we’ll get through this together.
But it may take some time, since the franchise is focusing on future contention; the on-court product suffers as the 76ers appear to be the worst team in basketball once again.
At this point, I’m just surprised Philadelphia still has a team website, since they can’t string three “W’s” together…
I think I’m going to hide in a corner for the rest of my life after that joke.
Philly, I’m rooting for you, and I’m rooting for the process!
Jahil Okafor continued to impact the box score with a 19 points, 11 boards, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 2 blocks. The Rookie of the Year frontrunner recorded his second straight double double against a soft Dallas front court. Luckily for fantasy owners, Okafor will see plenty of minutes to develop in the interim despite concerns about his immediate impact to the team’s chances of winning. Long term, his inabilities to defend the rim and stretch the floor may impact his fit in Philadelphia. I don’t think the coaching staff has any surprising moves in store for 2015 (such as playing more small ball around Noel or limiting Okafor’s minutes experimenting with more perimeter-based lineups), but moving forward, it is a trend to monitor as he continues to develop this year.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Maybe he didn’t call glass on his clutch three with 1:05 left in the 4th, but when you’re Dirk Nowitzki, a future hall of famer, who cares? I know fantasy owners don’t care whether it was a swish or a banked in three. All we care about are the final stats. And, boy, did Dirk deliver.
Down one going into the second half, Dirk took over for the Mavericks, leading them to a 10-point win against the Clippers. Dirk finished the game with 31 points and 11 rebounds on 11-14 shooting, including 5-6 from downtown. It was vintage Dirk.
Midway through the 3rd quarter he caught a Zaza Pachulia pass off of an offensive rebound and without squaring up, knocked down an one foot fade away jumper without hesitation. He knocked down threes with DeAndre Jordan in his grill. It was truly a great game.
As a fan of the game, it’s amazing to watch games like this, but as a fantasy owner, you have to realize that these games aren’t as common for the 37 year-old as they used to be. It was Dirk’s first 30-point game since December 28, 2014. In his 18th year in the NBA, Dirk is still a top 50 player when he plays, but just be aware his minutes are monitored more closely and he sits on back to backs, hurting his total overall value.
Now onto the other nightly notables:Please, blog, may I have some more?
After making history this weekend with arguably the best Halloween costume from an NBA player of all time, LeBron James made his way into the NBA record books becoming the youngest player to score 25,000 career points. Despite the record-breaking basket coming against the hapless Philadelphia 76ers, the feat nonetheless is one of the most impressive in recent memory. With all the scrutiny surrounding the potential decline of the Artist Formerly Known as King James, tonight’s performance was an instant reminder of how effectively he can impact the game not only on the hardwood, but the fantasy box score as well.
Registering 22 points, 11 assists, 9 rebounds, 4 steals, and 2 blocks on 9-19 shooting, James had his most well-rounded performance of the season. Moving forward, James should begin to impact other areas of the box score (assists, rebounds, steals, and FG percentage) as the Cavs offense clicks.
As the Cavs begin to realize the full potential of their All-Pro floor spacer in Kevin Love, James ability to facilitate and control the pace of the game will open up his true fantasy potential. Pencil him in for at least 20 points, 8 boards, and 6 assists on .500+ shooting. All hail the King.Please, blog, may I have some more?
So I Googled “crisis of leadership” because, well, it’s been a pretty annoying ride for NBA franchises in Charlotte since the 90s. According to never-wrong Wikipedia, the term was coined about something with Trotsky and Communism, I ain’t goin’ there! It’s been well-documented and scrutinized through the years, but Charlotte certainly seems to make odd decisions behind Michael Jordan. And before that, they moved to New Orleans, brought in an expansion team called “The Bobcats” (????@#?#$%@#%), and drafted Sean May.
While Charlotte’s follies could be it’s own dedicated article, I’m just going to talk about the planning behind PF/C minutes for 15-16.
TANGENT! Speaking of planning, we’re debuting a new part of Monday daily notes this season. The 7 Ahead! After wrapping up the standard daily notes from the weekend, at the bottom will be a weekly planner for the upcoming 7 nights of NBA action. Let me know if you like it! And as always, add any suggestions you commenters have for The 7 Ahead moving forward. If you don’t like it, ya know, not wanting to read such a long effin’ blog post when you’ve got a case of the Mudiays, just let me know!
FOCUS! So the Hornets draft Frank Kaminsky 9th in the draft, passing on in-state product Justise Winslow (who looks great in early run for the Heat) and the undeniably awesome Myles Turner. Part of the argument seemed to be NBA-readiness. But instead of sticking with the decision, or continuing to play Cody Zeller, another high-draft pick, they instead come out and start Starvin Marvin Williams. I mean, if you’re just going to take a no-upside PF/C for bench depth, why not go pure upside of my boy Kelly Oubre?!?! Such a wasted pick and poor planning for the rotation, as now Marvin is running away with the role with a fantastic start to 15-16. Opening the season with back-to-back dubdubs, Marvin went 15/5/1 with 3 blocks and 5 treys last night. They need some speed on D and a perimeter player to compliment Al “slow feet” Jefferson, and it’s put Marvin clearly in the ThrAGNOF category. The blocks were a little fluky, but I don’t think the minutes are. He’s surged to 34% owned which seems a smidge high, but on low-schedule nights, he’ll be a frequent streaming target of mine. And if I sounded unnecessarily bitter, it’s because I had him as a $1 REL keeper and let him walk. Friggin’ Hornets. What a waste of draft picks only to play the low-paid vet… Here’s what else happened over the weekend in fantasy basketball action:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Flashy player. Ridiculous opportunity. Buzzy preseason. A lot of times it ends up fizzling out, sometimes it works out OK, and one time it’s C.J. McCollum.
C.J. went absolutely bonkers in his 15-16 debut, hitting 14-22 from the field including 6-9 3PTM for 37/6/1/1/0 and no TO. Video game numbers! So he’s a shooter, and he does what NBA shooters do – keeps draining em when they hot! But I think we need to take a step back and consider a few things: Other than massive Pts and treys it was fairly empty. This was against the Pelicans, who without Brow, might look worse than the Sixers; they look horrific. And the third thing that no one seemed to mention while anointing McCollum the next big thing in combo guards this preseason – he’s got a pretty extensive injury history. He’s at the pinnacle of a sell high for me. Do I think he’ll be hot garbage all the sudden? Of course not. But do I think he scores 37 again this year? I don’t. Well, unless they faced the Pelicans every night… I’d shop around in the 40-50 range of ADP and see if you can get lucky. As with all fantasy takeaways off one game, it’s always good to keep from overreacting. Compared to fantasy football, we’re at the same point as about 9 minutes into the first quarter of week 1. Still a long way to go. Here’s what else went down during the first full slate of fantasy basketball action:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Previous “Jump Ball” articles:
TALE OF THE TAPE
|KAWHI LEONARD||JIMMY BUTLER|
|San Antonio Spurs||Team||Chicago Bulls|
|SG, SF||Position (Y! Eligibility)||SG, SF|
|12th||9-Cat Rank (Total Value)||15th|
|6th||9-Cat Rank (Per Game)||8th|
|31.8||Minutes Per Game||38.7|
|21.4 (T-93rd)||Usage Rate (Rank)||20.6 (T-112th)|
Piggy-backing off of Slim’s (in?)famous “Slim vs. Slim” series of years past, I’m going to be writing a number of articles pitting two players with similar ADPs against one another. The format will be slightly different, but the goal remains the same – provide fantasy owners some food for thought to better inform their decision if faced with these two players come draft day. It’s not a groundbreaking idea across the fantasy sports spectrum, but I’ve always found it to be a good way to help avoid a coin toss scenario once the clock starts ticking. So in lieu of a long-winded introduction, let’s just get down to brass tacks, shall we?Please, blog, may I have some more?
You aren’t going to find too many elite fantasy basketball assets sitting on an NBA bench. You’re going to find them on a 50’ wide by 94’ long stretch of hardwood, running their shoes tread-bare.
Fantasy production or “numbers” – essentially the only thing you’re mining for as you prepare for your drafts – is what results from the beautiful union between talent and opportunity.
Talent with limited opportunity (think: Jonas Valanciunas) leaves you with little choice but to sit back and wonder what could have been. Conversely, all the opportunity in the world afforded to players short on talent (I’m looking at you, Courtney Lee) has you questioning why you’re tending to vines that bear no fruit.
Unfortunately, in the world of the National Basketball Association, opportunity is usually held to a finite number each night – and that number is 240. Two hundred and forty minutes is all a given team can distribute amongst its roster during a regulation game. (For our purposes here today we’ll refrain from delving into the impact of overtime/multi-overtime games adding to the pool of minutes, though it does obviously impact the calculus.)
With NBA coaches now regularly employing rotations of nine and 10 men, there are very few players (regardless of talent, youth and good health) who are asked to play more than 75% of a game. In point of fact, during the 2014/2015 NBA season a grand total of six players averaged over 36 minutes of court time. Go just one year farther back and that number jumps to 16. The 12-13 campaign? 22 such players eclipsed the 36 MPG mark and seven ran for over 38 minutes a night. And to really put things into perspective – less than a decade ago we saw nine players average 40 minutes, with the kicker being that none of them missed more than 10 games.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Mid-rounds – when it starts getting tricky! And when personal biases and a soft spot for Latin Lovers can creep into your thoughts and dreams!
You don’t have to look far to see that I covet upside youth as early as the 20s, with a few gut calls that could make or break my 15-16. As long as MCW isn’t in there! One thing I’ve found over last year is there seems to be pretty good talent and upside through the mid-40s, so as long as everyone in your league isn’t going for a FT punt, you should be able to get through 3-4 rounds with your desired build and a few fitting options each pick. Enough wankery, we want ranks already! Here’s the Top 50 for the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball Season:Please, blog, may I have some more?