Man, you guys don’t even know. There’s been a mob outside my house every night for the past two weeks carrying tiki torches and screaming, “We want the Top 200 with stats!” Or at least I think that’s what they were saying. Anyways, big shout out to Rudy who waved his magic wand and created the beautiful looking spreadsheet below. It even sorts. Here is Rudy in his lab:
FIVE… DAYS. The NBA “offseason” has kept us almost constantly entertained with a loaded draft, free agency rumors, the best summer league ever, and multiple superstar trades. But, it’s time for some real, official action. And by that, I mean actual stats that count in our fantasy leagues, of course. This season, more than any other, I’m just a huge fan of the entire NBA and my fantasy teams. You see, I’m a longtime Bulls fan. And while I’m an optimist that’s been quite obsessed with the Sixers rebuild and their amazing potential, the Bulls have messed up their tank job in half a dozen ways prior to even getting it off the ground. So, I’m really itching for some Lonzo outlets, CP3-to-Capela lobs, and an unexpected six-steal game from my most recent free agent acquisition. Let’s get going already with this new crop of talent!
Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)
Last week, I talked about ways to find advantages by removing certain stats your team doesn’t need for various reasons and shuffling up player values so you have a better idea of who’s actually the most helpful for your team during drafts. That’ll be a theme as the season goes on, because it really leads us to trades that can help us a ton, while helping the other team enough that they pull the trigger. But we’ve got another weekend of drafting to go, so I’ve compiled a list of a few more places to take advantage of what I see as market inequities. If you’ve already drafted, maybe this can spark some trade proposal ideas, too.
If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? A philosophical thought that has taken too much of our time, to be honest. We now live in an age filled with technology, so it’s all about sending the screen shot or providing video evidence. An event does not exist until a selfie is procured. We ain’t got time for the bullshit. Now, the time consuming question is “Photoshopped?” Anyways, the purpose of today’s post is to provide the predictions for the upcoming NBA season from your favorite Razzball writers. Who will be shamed? Who will be exalted? Regardless, we shall forever be etched into the annals of Razzball history….that is until I edit the post at the end of the season. Someone better screen shot this mofo!
One of my all-time favorite movies is Rounders. Matt Damon and Ed Norton talking all smooth and playing poker in cool-looking clubs with John Malkovich spouting repeatable lines in… sort of a Russian accent. Plus, there’s a great Counting Crows song during the credits that I’ve never been able to find anywhere. Anyway, Damon’s Mike McD is the relatively good boy, while Norton’s Worm is the slimier friend.
After Worm gets them beat up with all their cash stolen for having been caught cheating, the gloves come off in an overdue shouting match between the old friends.
Mike McDermott: What the F*** were you thinking?
Worm: I was trying to give us an edge… …I don’t think like that.
Mike McD: No, you don’t THINK!
Worm: No, I don’t think like YOU! You always think you can beat the game straight up. That’s not me. I told you, I’m always gonna look for that edge. Always.
As much as Mike is the better role model, if you’re picking from the two gambling addicts, in fantasy basketball you want to be like Worm. Even if you tried, you can’t cheat in most leagues, but you want to be the one thinking differently, finding your edge. Last week, I mentioned ways to make your league more engaging. From here on out, I’ll give you ways to get an edge in your league by using the numbers to your advantage. These next two weeks leading up to the season, we’ll talk drafting.
Let me start by saying this: do not go into a draft planning on building a punt FT (or punt anything for that matter) team. Never. Don’t. You aren’t being smarter than everybody else. You’re playing yourself. Unless you’re a late draft pick in a 36-team league, it’s probably not gonna work for you.
Also, never decide to build a punt FT team just because a punt FT guy falls a bit. I made this mistake last year and took Drummond in one of my leagues, after having Davis and Porzingis already on my roster. My thought process was, “I can definitely make some trades to make this work.” I did get Gobert, which helped, but throwing away a category to get better at stats your fantasy team already generates is, not only inefficient, it’s frustrating.
On top of this, do not draft guys when building a punt FT team just because they’re bad at free throws. I can not stress this enough. The point of drafting is to build a team that can win as many categories for you as possible, not to see how bad you can lose one. It’s comical how often people (myself included) try to see how bad they can get their FT percentage, thinking that they’re outplaying everyone else. You guys think this article is for you, it’s actually for me. I’m just trying to hold myself accountable when I’m drafting.
So when do you build a punt FT team? The simple answer is: when it helps you. What I’m hoping this article does is give you some scenarios when building a punt FT team makes sense. If you’re stubborn and are gonna go ahead and build one anyway, I’ll also give some advice on how to round out your team.
Wait, I forgot the most important piece of information you’ll see in this article. How the hell are there NBA players shooting less than 50% from the FT line? Seriously. I can’t wrap my head around it. That’s like an illiterate writer. That’s like a runner that can’t walk. That’s like the restaurant I used to work at who’s name was Burger’s etc. and stopped selling burgers. So many confused customers, just like there must be so many confused NBA fans.
Hello Razzball Nation! My name is Kostas (as you may have correctly guessed by the avatar name at the top) and I’m the latest addition to the fantasy crew here. I’m not that good with introductions so I’ll just say that I love fantasy and basketball in general and can talk about it for days. I’m more experienced in Roto leagues and I frankly prefer them compared to H2H. Too much luck involved in the championship matchup (injuries, resting of star players, etc) for my taste. So, for my first post I’ve prepared my projections for the top 155 (just to irritate people that like round numbers such as 100 and 150) players in roto, since Son has already covered the H2H part. The player value was calculated with the “z-score” method (the most widely used) and takes into account the nine standard categories (PTS, 3PT, REB, AST, STL, BLK, FG%, FT%, TO). One last thing to note is that the player value is the PER GAME player value, so injuries and games played are not included. Without further ado, here are the projections:
Hey everyone! This week, the new leader of basketball at Razzball, Son, joins me along with Tehol to go over his top 100 rankings. Well, at least Tehol joins us for most of it, he disappears for a stretch due to some computer issues. Damn computers! Anyways, among the notable things discussed are Giannis Antetokounmpo at #1 overall, who else is in the top tier with Giannis, Son’s agressive rankings of Nikola Jokic, Lonzo Ball and Dennis Smith Jr., the impact on Kyrie Irving’s fantasy value due to his trade to Boston and what to do with Joel Embiid. All of that and plenty more on the latest edition of the Razzball Basketball Podcast brought to you by League Safe!
You can get $10 towards your fantasy sports league’s prize pool by going to leaguesafe.com/razzbasketball
It’s nice to live minute-to-minute. Riding the wave of life, experiencing the gamut of emotions, and acquiring a rolodex of memories with nary a stress in the world. A life lived like this is unfulfilling, though. To truly get the most out of life, one must try to achieve. And in order to achieve, one must have a plan. Look at the current NBA. So many smart people running teams, yet they navigate the landscape like a stoned teenager walking through a grocery store. Look! Twinkies! Mmmmm, I’m so hungry. These will taste so good. Oh! Chips.
Former general manager of the 76ers, Sam Hinkie, had a plan. If you haven’t read his Manifesto, I highly recommend that you do. There’s so much goodness there, but I wanted to focus on this excerpt:
“It is critical to be cycle aware in a talent-driven league. In a situation like yours at the Sixers, where a variety of circumstances left you near a trough in the cycle (and falling), amplifying this cycle became crucial. Today’s outcomes for every team are heavily impacted by decisions past (who to draft, sign, trade, hire, etc.). Jeff Bezos says that if Amazon has a good quarter it’s because of work they did 3, 4, 5 years ago-not because they did a good job that quarter. Today’s league-leading Golden State Warriors acquired Draymond Green, Andrew Bogut, and Klay Thompson almost 4 years ago, nearly 4 years ago exactly, and almost 5 years ago. In this league, the long view picks at the lock of mediocrity.”
Before I begin, head on over to the football side and play and/or host some RCLs by clicking here. I’ve got my league up, so come get it. I have no doubt that you are a degenerate so I’m just trying to help a brother or sister out. Also, check out Jay’s rankings. Not because he’s a swell guy, but because he was the third-most accurate ranker according to FantasyPros.
Ok, now back to hoops. If you missed it, here are the links for the Top 10 and Top 25. I’ll keep the intro to this piece short and sweet because there’s a ton of players to get through.
As always, big shout-out to Slim, who provided projections and insight.
Well, the somber day has come where I have decided to hang up the sneaks (I keep getting kankles!) from Razzball, and focus on one thing more important and one thing less important in my life – my family, and my career. Haha, if anyone at my job stumbles onto this, I’m only kidding! When you work full time along with giving Razzball Hoops the love and tender care it needs, it can stretch you a little thin.
Man, 4.5 years leading the Razzball Basketball charge. I thought it was only 3.5. Can’t believe I took this over at the tail end of the 2012-13 season, had my first articles get maybe 2-3 comments and sometimes none, and the community here grew to what it is today. Still getting all you guys visiting after the season just ended! It’s awesome. I know when people leave they get sappy, and blahty-blah they say emo things, but it’s 100% true that the biggest thing I’m going to miss will be the comments and you commenters. Just having people spend their time dropping by to chat hoops meant the world. In that vein, hit me up any time on Twitter (@jbgilpin) to keep talking some hoops, and I’m sure Razzball Basketball is going to continue to be the best spot on the interwebs for fantasy hoops content.
Can’t believe this is going to be my final post… It’s so weird! Almost 6 years at Razzball, 8 writing for fantasy sports, and it’s just become my time to retire. Blabby run-on intro, JB, what else is new?! Hah, so for my final post, I decided to take it on Daily Notes style, since that was my favorite part of basketball writing. I thought it’d be the most fun to review everything from my tenure notes style, for a look back and the laughs and the cries (F you Andrew Wiggins!) over the years. Slim and I are going to do a sign-off Podcast this week, then I am setting sail around the world (aka, going to spend more time with the family and my new dog). So for the last time, here’s what went down over the last 4.5 years of Razzball Fantasy Basketball: