Fantasy Basketball Advice

Marvin Williams strung together a trio of decent games this week (15/8 while shooting .586 from the field) and now Joe Johnson is recovering from having ‘loose bodies’ in his elbow. It’s not as bad as Robert Mapplethorpe’s collection of elbows in loose bodies, but still. Consider this week to be Marvilliams’ last shot at redemption. If he fails, not even ‘Celebrity Apprentice’ will throw attention his way. His five best games this season have all come against poor defenses (Memphis twice, New York, Cleveland and Toronto) whereas his five worst games have come against Boston, Utah, Philly (Iguodala, more specifically) and D.C. twice). So perhaps this week of powderpuff opponents was a mirage and next week’s games against Miami and Orlando will expose that no matter what Hawk is injured or what team Atlanta plays, Marvin just ain’t no good. But with Johnson out, he’ll get more touches, might even see a bump in minutes and there will be no more excuses. Stash and/or monitor.

Anyway, here are the rest of this weekend’s adds and drops to ponder:

Add

Ersan Ilyasova – Snare Yo Saliva averaged nearly 40 minutes this week and produced a 14/9/3 line with it. This is a hesitant add, with a lot of caveats. The biggest caveats being that you can’t count on 40-ish minutes from him. The Bucks are too stacked to be able to support that and his .429 FG% this week was atrocious. But 14/9/3 is useful in a lot of leagues, especially when you add .900+ FT% and two spg.

George Hill – 16/3/2.5 to go along with 2.5 spg in an off-week for Tony Parker. Who do you think gave Eva the head’s up?

Ed Davis – 11/6 and two blocks in his 24-minute season debut Wednesday. There’s already a glut of bigs in Toronto, but that glut is in a rut. It’s a good ol’ fashioned Raptor rutglut. Classic Raptors!

Josh McRoberts – A lot of deep leagues grabbed Chris Andersen this week in hopes that he’d average eight boards and two blocks a game. He hasn’t, but he is averaging nine obnoxious tattoos per appendage. So there’s that. I’d prefer the roundball stylings of Josh McBob, however. He’s established himself as a bit of the Pacers’ version of Birdman, assuming looking like Liev Schreiber is considered as colorful as wearing your hair like a roadie at a Sex Pistols show. He averaged a surprising 2.3 bpg and 2.7 apg this week along with 6.7/4.3 points and rebounds per game.

Brandon Bass – I wouldn’t rush to the waiver wire on this guy just yet, but he played the second-highest minutes of his season on Wednesday and the Orlando starting lineup is heading into the weekend a bit of a mess (Dwight and Jameer both have the flu, Rashard’s knee is bruised). If you have the room to speculate on a slight uptick in minutes, grab him now. If not, watch him.

Jerryd Bayless – 11/4/3 with 1.3 three treys a game as a Raptor in 4.5 extra minutes per game. And since the Raptors don’t have a whole lot else going for them, who’s to say his mpg don’t continue to increase? Jay Triano? Okay, besides him?

Drop

Eric Bledsoe – I know, I know. It’s hard. Baron Davis went down and you picked up Bledsoe assuming he’d do for your team what Darren Collison did for the Hornets last season. Instead, Bledsoe did for your team about what Collison has done for the Pacers this season.

Ron Artest – Only his steals and FT% are up from last season and neither are up substantially. The opposite is true for the rest of his output. You shouldn’t have owned Artest in the first place. But he’s owned in over 65 percent of leagues, so I’m-a just keep this broken record spinning. It sounds a lot like ‘Da Don’t Ron Ron.’

Nicolas Batum – He’s playing like he’s afraid something deeply, deeply terrifying will happen to him at any moment. Like, his kneecap will slide down to his shin or he’ll spend the rest of his life playing without any cartilage separating his knee joint or he’ll have to retire mid-season because of heart murmurs. The kid’s totally irrational.

Taj Gibson – He’s grabbed eight boards and blocked two shots in his last three games. This Gibson’s out of tune.

J.J. Hickson – I already went over him this week. If I’m repeating myself it’s because I care.

It takes a certain amount of cajones to win any fantasy league. Shouldn’t the amount be two? No more, no less? Uh, well, yeah. I guess I meant size. It takes more than one and fewer than three big ol’ cajones to win your league. Sometimes you need to reach for a top rookie prospect in your draft or take a flier on a emerging talent after only a game’s worth of promise. And sometimes all it takes is trading for the right player going through a turd period, polish that turd and dominate. Right now, Andre Iguodala is my top turd awaitin’ a polish. He’s hurt, his timetable isn’t clear and he wasn’t playing all that well before he started missing games. All of this makes it likely that his owners are open to taking offers for him for something other than a top 30 talent in return. Perhaps a top 50 talent, maybe two top 60 talents. Maybe there’s a guy who enjoys long division and is willing to accept five top 150 talents. He’s become overlooked already this season and is on a stinker of a team, he’s rarely anyone’s top player or even second-best player and yet, he’s among the most well-rounded players in the league; exactly the type of guy that wins fantasy leagues. It helps that Iggy paused his season with horrible shooting percentages and a 13/6/5 line, as owners with a certain player tend to panic more than the owners interested in acquiring that player. He started the season unhealthy and it didn’t improve. Luckily, it seems everyone involved with his recovery is happy to take things slow and ensure when Iguodala comes back, he comes back as the top 25 player he is. It’s worth the risk to send out feelers on a guy that is likely seen as being worth far less than he actually is.

Here’s who else you should add, drop, trade or bench from this week in fantasy basketball:

Add

Wesley Matthews – 4 3ptm/25/6.5/2.5/1.5/1.5/2 since taking over for Brandon Roy in the starting lineup. Why wouldn’t a fella?

Kris Humphries – Averaging 9.5/13/2 blks  in the last four games. Switch the blocks with threes and this is what you were hoping Troy Murphy would do after his return from injury. What? You’re too good for Brunette Murphy? A ‘Murphy Brown’ if you will.

Drew Gooden – He’s unowned in 40 percent of fantasy leagues despite averaging 19/11.5 and a little bit of everything else in the last week (two games). He’s not fun, he’s not sexy, but dammit he’s in Milwaukee and that’s just how they do things up there!

Delonte West – There is a window in deep leagues for guys like West. He won’t play more than 26 minutes in most games; won’t ever drop 30 on a team; but he does a little of everything which is more than most teams can say about their end-of-the-bench guys who are mostly upside failures or one-trick ponies. After he plays a few more games, that window will be closed. Don’t be the guy stuck with Greg Monroe wishing for a better life.

Drop

J.R. Smith – He was averaging 9 points and one trey a game … and that was before he was bounced from the rotation and still, he’s owned in 70 percent of fantasy leagues

Beno Udrih – No, don’t drop Udrih for a bag of marbles and an instruction booklet on how to shoot marbles – use your Head, Udrih has more value than that. And no, don’t pick up Luther Head, that’s not what I meant. What I mean is that Paul Westphal hasn’t played the same starting rotation two days in a row yet this season and it’s had an effect on every fantasy option the Kings have to offer. But whereas you just have to put up with it if you own, say Tyreke Evans or Samuel Dalembert, you might want to ditch late-round guys like Beno and his 13/5 in 28 mpg line for whatever you can get for him.

Ishmael Smith – 5/2/4 in the three games since Kyle Lowry replaced him as the starter. Well, it was fun while it lasted (not really).

Reggie Williams – 12.5/3/1 in 27 minutes over his last two games. And really, they don’t improve much if you go back even farther. It just doesn’t look like it’s in the cards for Williams this season unless one of the starting guards goes down. Even then, probably not.

Taj Gibson – 4/6/2 blocks. If he’s gonna act like Boozer’s already back, you might as well do the same.

Brandon Roy – Don’t drop him. Set him down gently. Let him choose his favorite book and read it to him. Do all the funny voices like he likes. And kiss him on the forehead before you go. He likes that. And when you’re finished try to get, like, John Salmons or Mike Conley or whatever for him.

Evan Turner – There are whispers that even after Iguodala returns from injury tonight that Turner will remain at the “two.” Clean cup, clean cup, move down, move down! The weirdest part of those whispers is that they all came from Doug Collins who had several microphones at his disposal. Just lean in a little, buddy. We’ve got people out here that want to hear what you’ve got to say. E.T. is  averaging 14.5/9/2 as a starter. That’s only two points and a rebound less than Blake Griffin has averaged thus far. And while 20 percent more fantasy leagues own Griffin than Turner, you could own the rookie who will sink free throws efficiently. I’m not telling you to go batty, smear your face in plain yogurt and drop Griffin for Turner. I would never do that – plain yogurt is delicious and has too many recipe uses to just go a-smearin’ willy-nilly. I am telling you that Turner is more available than he should be given the development he’s already shown and the mpg reward he may get for showing it.

Here are some additional adds and drops to get you through your weekend:

ADD

Sonny Weems – I’m rooting for teams rostering Taj Gibson to grab Weems, if for no other reason then the two of them would be able to form one helluva blues band in two weeks when everyone simultaneously drops them both after more talented players return from injury.

Rudy Fernandez – If Brandon Roy wants fewer minutes, RuFer is the big winner here. Don’t sell the farm to grab him, as he’s not an efficient shooter and doesn’t score in bunches, but go ahead and give away the silo, as he’s in line to sink two treys a game with 1-2 steals ta’boot.

Brandon Rush – Paul George is out of the four-man wing rotation in Indiana. Neither Dunleavy nor Granger are the healthiest cats out there. Rush is worth a flier, if you’re into flying.

Serge Ibaka – He’s averaging 10/8 with three blocks in his last three games and has started the last two. He’s the Biedrins you wanted when you drafted Biedrins a month ago.

Amir Johnson – In the first two games of the season, Reggie Evans was grabbing rebounds from games he wasn’t even playing in and Johnson was on the court a mere 16 minutes averaging 5/2. But Evans is hurt, might miss a game or two and it just so happens Johnson improved over his last six games to 9/7. If you blew your chance at grabbing Evans, might as well grab Johnson before you blow it again. *sigh* I just know that last sentence is going to attract Google searchers.

Kyle Lowry – The Rockets are a hot mess. So messy, in fact, that I’m recommending you pick up a guy who is playing hurt and backing up an unproven rookie we’ve been instructed to call Ishmael. There’s some shameful shizz going down in Houston town.

Jordan Hill – Yao’s out a week (or more – probably more) and Brad Miller is playing hurt, which he is too old to be doing. Everyone wanted Jordan on their fantasy teams in the ’90s and if there’s one thing I learned from that decade, it’s that the ladies love hypercolor shirts and bajas. If I learned two things from the ’90s, it’s that if you’ve got a Jordan in red, the other team’s dead.

Sebastian Telfair – Here’s your short buy …

Jonny Flynn – … And here’s your long buy. I doubt either will net you more than 10/6 steals though, so whether you go short or long, make sure your league is deep before taking them in (*sigh* Hello again, Google searchers!)

DROP

Chauncey Billups – Here’s what I said 10 weeks ago, “Death may not be breathing down Billups’ neck, but Ty Lawson, and George Karl’s health, and Carmelo’s contract are. This is going to be a very trying year for ol’ Chauncey.” I just quoted myself so I can point out how wrong I was. He’s scoring fewer points, distributing fewer assists and shooting like one of his contacts keeps sliding behind his eyeball. He’s actually significantly worse than I predicted. So here’s another bad prediction: you’re going to have an easy time trading him to some other owner.

Luke Ridnour – He’s injured and when he comes back there will by a Flynn in his soup. Get rid now ‘er be stuck with a mediocre backup later.

George Hill – There’s really nothing wrong with Hill. His neck probably isn’t totally fine, but the bigger problem is that both Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson are totally fine. Better than fine, actually. They’ve both started as huge value picks this season. Unfortunately, that’s bumped Hill’s minutes and USG% when he does get on the floor. I’d bump him to your bench if you can afford it, and dump him if you can’t.

Mo Williams – This is a soft sell, or Soft Cell if your love for Mo has been tainted. He’s shooting poorly, and on the shelf again with groin soreness. Yeah, love will do that. It also doesn’t help that The Cavs aren’t short on guards to fill in for Williams. If there’s an owner out there that wants him, let him have it. You’ve got to – Dun! Dun! -  run away!

I’m sorry to lead today’s Add/Drop with a player that will neither be added nor dropped in most leagues. Sometimes when one is struck with a chilling thought, one must rattle the cage of protocol from time to time. We all may have grossly overestimated Chris Bosh‘s fantasy value as a member of the Miami Heat. And I’m sorry for referring to Chris Bosh as “my baby” in the title of this post. I meant to refer to him a “a baby.” Also, I’m sorry to have led this lead with an apology. Oh, and you’re sorry if you’ve never heard the White Stripes perform the song after which this post was named. Anyway, it hit me while watching Lamardashian destroy fools for a fifth straight game that for one reason or another (dude’s shooting .700 percent from the field) after five games as the third wheel on the Heat, Bosh has already sunk into the role of role player. He’s averaging 13 ppg (1.4 ppg more than James Jones) and there’s little indication that there’s something wrong. He doesn’t look particularly lost in the new offense, because … there isn’t much of one to speak of.  Things might be more dire than expected for Bosh. I’m trying not to overreact to five games. We’re only through 6 percent of the season. I know, I know. But Bosh went from one of the three best bigs in the game to a sturdy player outside the top 50. This is why watching Lamar Odom last night and throughout the last 10 days has reminded me so much of Bosh. They’re both outstanding players who are comfortable in the shadows. When Odom starts, he’s a a career 15.5/9.5/4.5 guy who will get a block, steal and/or trey every game. He’s a beast that has worked best as a sixth man. Why won’t this same fate befall Bosh? If you can’t lead, you follow. Odom, like Bosh, is the third best player on one of the best teams in the league. He’s comfortable not being “the man” on the squad despite the occasional rankle and carries a skill set that doesn’t generally translate well to fantasy. Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe Bosh drops 40 tonight and I make this post disappear like it never existed. Maybe it happens, or maybe the 24/11 Canadian Bosh is the only thing disappearing around here. For the pessemists among you, I’d start shopping Bosh around while people still think he’ll average 20/10 or even 18/8 for the Heat. Here’s some other adds and drops to get you through the weekend:

ADD

Al Thornton – He’s scoring big minutes in D.C. right now and providing decent rebound, block and turnover numbers. He’s not the best SF in the league, he’s not even the best Al in the league, but he can help a lot of owners in medium-sized leagues that have room for more than three good Als.

C.J. Miles – After a rough two-game start, Utah’s backup SF is averaging 20 points and four treys in under 25 mpgs in his last two. Now, couple that with your feelings on Andrei Kirilenko remaining healthy all season and you’ve got yourself a nice little pick-up.

Grant Hill – I keep my mustard right on the top shelf on the door of the refrigerator I’ve kept it there for years. In my life, the mustard goes in the same spot – always.  Every once in a while, despite my  knowledge of where I keep the mustard, I can’t find it. My eyes glaze over it, like when correctly spelled words just look wrong. I know the mustard is there, but I need to pause to be able to see it. Well, it’s been 10 days now. You’ve paused long enough to realize that Grant Hill is where he always is: 12.5/6/1.5/1/1. Now grab him and spread him all over your fantasy team.

Eric Bledsoe – I never saw this kid play for Kentucky, or maybe I did but he only registered as “not John Wall.” Either way, I just don’t know what this kid can do. I do know what he’s done since Baron Davis went down with a knee cist (dyass kneecist!): .524/.500/1.5/13/4.5/5.5/2/2/3. What have you got to lose?

Louis Williams – This is a moderate recommendation as Lou-de-Loop is an up and down kind of player. But right now, he’s up. Ride ‘im.

James Jones – I try to avoid one trick ponies whenever possible, but Jones’ one trick is really, really quite impressive. More impressive than the tattooed girl I met during Mardi Gras with the yo-yos and roller skates. If you need substantial threes, James is your man. If you ever want to vomit automatically after seeing yo-yos, go to Mardi Gras.

Toney Douglas -Already went over him earlier today. Oh you skimmed it, did you? Well skim it slower this time because the guy still offers more than nothing. In fact, he offers more than James Jones.

Hakim Warrick -Warrick won’t do much else besides rebound and drop some points. Then again, Turkoglu won’t do much else beside flounder and disappoint.

Glen Davis – Four questions for you: 1) How healthy is Shaq right now? 2) How healthy is Jermaine O’Neal, like, ever? 3) When is Kendrick Perkins returning? 4) So who will cover for the messes identified in questions 1-3? If you own any of the three Celtics mentioned here, drop them and add Davis.

DROP

Hedo Turkoglu – What about a 17.8 PER in ’07, 14.8 PER in ’08, 13.3 PER last season and an 11.7 PER in this one do you not understand?

Darko Milicic – I went 0-for-6 just typing his name.

Baron Davis -  Drop him like a bad habit. I should clarify that bad habits are often dropped only after complicated dedication and rational progression of due diligence – not carefree immediacy as is often represented by people telling someone to drop anything like a bad habit. So maybe there should be no dropping. Attempt a release, but aim to get something more than the dust left in an empty box of Sno-Caps for him.

Marcus Thornton – So far this season he’s been out of sync, out of the rotation, out of shape and if Marco Belinelli explodes, he could be out of fantasy caché.

Assume for a moment Gilbert Arenas is Eric Stoltz’s “Back to the Future” footage. It exists and has potential, but ultimately, it’s just not gonna happen, man. Kirk Hinrich is Michael J. Fox. He’s there. He’s inexpensive. He can do the job without having to carry the entire franchise. But Fox did carry the entire franchise, you say? Lea Thompson is on her way to kick you in the stomach! The Wizards looked bad enough on Thursday to toss my “don’t panic after one game” philosophy out the window, which I would do if the room I was in had a window that opened, but I’m in a D.C. hotel and Lord knows they don’t want 10th floor windows opening in this town! They especially don’t want that after residents see how easy containing the Wiz iz. John Wall is going to need help and it was shockingly obvious that McGee and Blatche have some adjusting to do. Hinrich isn’t awesome, isn’t flashy, isn’t named “Kurt,” (pay attention Vinny Del Negro!), and isn’t my favorite Jayhawk, but he did average 11/3.5/4.5 and a steal in 33.5 mpg last season as a support system on a Bulls offense that never needed his offense. Hinrich will average 30+ minutes on most nights (more as Arenas continues his absence) and will be needed on offense more in D.C. than in Chicago. Heavy! Here are more players to add or drop (or add then drop) this week in fantasy basketball:

ADD

Darrell Arthur – Both Randolph and Gasol will miss Friday’s game and neither player has a timetable for their return. Arthur had 19/3 in 31 (surprise!) minutes on Wednesday and will likely average 35+ mpgs until both of Memphis’ starters return. You could do much worse. Like robbing a bank. That would be you doing worse.

Landry Fields – I still like Chandler over Fields, but because I’m unconvinced Mike D’Antoni feels the same way, Fields is just as ownable. In fantasy hoops, just about anyone averaging 30+ minutes per game is worth a look in deep leagues. For now that’s exactly who Fields is, just anyone.

Ronny Turiaf – As quickly as you could say Timofey Mozgov (which was probably not quick at all) it became clear that he can’t run the “five” for big minutes any time soon. That pretty much leaves Turiaf unless Eddy Curry unwraps his fingers from that turkey leg … No? Okay. Turiaf it is. His back will not likely keep him out of this weekend’s games and in deep leagues he’ll be a great source for blocks, FG% and all the rebounds Amar’e will soon enough be too lazy to go after.

Josh McRoberts – There just isn’t anyone ready to take minutes away from the sneaky athletic McRoberts right now in Circle City. As long as he averages 25+ minutes per night, you’ll fairly steadily get 10/6 with 3 blks+stls a night from him.

Hakim Warrick – Already discussed Warrick this morning. You remember, don’t you? Building on my thoughts a bit, there are two things I know for sure: 1) Steve Nash will be picking and rolling with someone this season, Stoudemire be damned. 2) It won’t be with Hedo Turkoglu.

Gordon Hayward – He’s averaged 23 minutes in his first two games and has shown the effort appropriate for a rookie playing under Jerry Sloan. If Sloan is playing him this much already, just wait until Kirilenko’s straightened locks of hair inevitably scratch his retinas and send him on the shelf for a month. Bee-tee-dubya, who’s gonna be the first guy in the locker room to call Kirilenko Justin Bieber? My guess is Raja Bell. Don’t go dropping Kirilenko for Hayward, but he’s more promising than guys like Brandon Rush or Kelenna Azubuike at this point

DROP

Leandro Barbosa – Barbosa has had diminishing returns every season since 2006. His ORtg ain’t what it used to be, his points have dipped steadily despite his USG% increasing steadily and he’s just nothing like the efficient scorer we saw in his salad days in Phoenix. All that remains true, but he’s also playing through a nagging wrist injury that probably requires surgery sooner than later.

Josh Childress – We’ll just call this the “not that great and playing injured” section.

Delonte West – Played “slug bug” with Von Wafer in the Celtics locker room … where there were no VW Beetles in sight and Wafer was unaware the game had started. Only owners in deep leagues should have been taking a flier on the troubled guard. Now, no one should. In other news, owners in deep leagues might want to take a look at Von Wafer!