Fantasy Basketball Advice

With the lockout already having killed the season’s first 100 games (and counting?), trying to preview the season of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. Razzball has you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it like this, the only way any of this stuff can be disproven is if the season ever actually starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, consider this fantasy basketball gospel. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who (besides the league’s owners) might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months … or years? Next up – The Houston Rockets (Yao is ashamed of his replacement’s size).

Gained – Jonny Flynn, Marcus Morris, Donatas Montiejunas, Chandler Parsons, Kevin McHale’s coat hanger shoulders

Lost – Brad Miller, Yao Ming (officially)

Probable position depth -
PG – Kyle Lowry*, Goran Dragic*, Jonny Flynn*
SG – Kevin Martin, Courtney Lee
SF – Chase Budinger, Terrence Williams, Chandler Parsons
PF – Luis Scola*, Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, Mike Harris
C – Chuck Hayes, Jordan Hill, Donatas Motiejunas, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Cousin

* free agent

Surprising Team Fact From Last Season – The Rockets led the league in assists despite their leading dimesman (Lowry) only having the 17th highest total last season and their second-most prolific assister being 79th and a squat center (Hayes).

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 0,
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) – 1, Martin
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players   (par 2-3) – 3, Scola, Lowry
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) – 0
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 8, Budinger, Hayes, Williams, Patterson, Dragic

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season

1. How many centers does it take to replace Yao Ming?
Five, on paper. But Chuck Hayes is really this team’s only reliable big … despite the fact that he’s not actually all that big (6’6”). Last year, the Rockets had a rostisserie of Hayes-Hill-Miller and a few games of Yao sprinkled over top. Yao retired, Miller was sent to Minnesota and in their place they added Donatas Motidontwannaeventrytosayit, the 2009 no.2 overall pick and recent D-Leaguer Hasheem Thabeet, and Marcus Cousin. Chuck Wagon is a solid 8/8/3 option at center in later rounds. He’ll supply you with nearly 2 stl+blk and low turnovers each game. Hill has the chance to break out, if he’s given a chance to break out and I don’t know that he will be.

2. Hey, so Chase Budinger is great at volleyball. That’s weird, huh?
Not as weird as Kevin Love’s affinity for the sport. All I know about volleyball I learned from watching ‘Top Gun,’ namely that the players involved have to be greased up beforehand, constantly flexing for one another’s benefit and agile in a pair of jorts. Budinger is almost certainly all of those things, but Love? I think we can all agree, doode is anything but agile … I’m sorry what was the question? … There was no question? Well, dat’s yo fault!

3. Where did Kyle Lowry come from and are bus tickets still available for me to visit that place?
Philadelphia? Um, yeah. I’m pretty sure you can bus to Philly if you needed to. Unless you’re speaking metaphorically, in which case, I’m still pretty sure bus tickets are available for Philly. Also, I don’t know what “metaphorically” means. Lowry averaged 14/4/7and a career-high 34 mpg last season. His shot can stand to improve from the .426 it stalled at in 2010, and there’s reason to think it will. He was tossed into the starting position after Aaron Brooks a) got hurt and then b) got untalented. Then Lowry slogged it out as the Rockets tried to define itself without Yao, without Brooks, without a starting PF who doesn’t block and rebounds underwhelmingly and without a clear presence at SF. A situation like that translates to a lot of shots from Lowry that Lowry probably wished he hadn’t taken before he actually took them. Kevin McHale’s calming, fatherly voice should soothe away many of those bad shots, either that or McHale will rotate his three PGs like he was still in Timberwolves country.

Rookie Review! – Marcus Morris (no.14) seems like a guy Kevin McHale will not only like right away, but the type of player he specifically would improve after a year or two. Morris is a quick-but-undersized forward with a great turnaround jumper, numerous moves around the basket and the ability to defend well against smaller PFs. He can’t jump and his rebounding is sketchy because of his size and for those reasons, you’re not going to want to draft him this year. But Morris is on my shortlist of guys we might want to take seriously in a year or two. Donatas Motiejunas (no.20) came over from Minnesota in the Jonny Flynn trade and has been widely compared to Dirk Nowitzki. Mostly because any white guy over 6-foot-10 from Europe with a jump shot gets the Dirk comparison (if he’s from the U.S., he still gets the Larry Bird comparison). I think player comparisons should work like military ranks. You start out with comparisons to Darko, then move up to Bargnani. Once you do something in this league, then you get the Dirk comparisons.  Unless you’re comparing Motiejunas to a 20-year-old Dirk. In which case, yeah. They’re a lot alike. Chandler Parsons (no.38) has been called “unselfish,” “non-aggressive offensively,” and, wait, what was the third term? It’s here somewhere. I just had it … oh yeah, “fluid runner.” Yeah, I’ve read enough.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’11 – Luis Scola. Statistically, he had his best season last year (18/8/3, .515/.738) and represented the lone big man the Rockets had that the team could lean on. So they leaned on him. We all need someone to lean on, Mr. Olmos. But in the offseason, Houston went out and grabbed two new bigs and an oversized SF. Additionally, Patrick Patterson will be a year older and that much more developed, but not in a puberty type of way, which means subtractional things for Scola’s stat line. Scola’s still this team’s number 1 big and a lock to be picked somewhere around 60-70 in most drafts, but even if one of the young bigs produces, that’s gravy coming out of Scola’s bowl.

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’11 – Kevin Martin. Speed Racer missed 21 games in 2007, 31 games in 2008 and 35 games in 2009. He missed just two last year and I’m scared to death to assume the tides have shifted. He’s still frail. He’ll be this team’s top producer on the court, but I’ve drafted him every season EXCEPT last year and I’m one ACL tear away from the looney bin with this mamaluke.

Deep Sleeper – Patrick Patterson. The 22-year-old didn’t get much burn last year, playing only 17 minutes a game, but in the time he did have, he showed raw, but varied offensive skills, serviceable defense and an efficiency not common among guys his age. His per36 stats were 14/8/2, with 1.5 blk and 1.2 tov. He won’t sniff 36 mpg this season, but he might see 25 and he might average 10/6/1, with 1 blk per game. On a team with this much mishmash at its frontcourt, talent like PaPa is just an injury away from an unforeseen breakout season.

With the lockout already having killed the season’s first 100 games (and counting?), trying to preview the season of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. Razzball has you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it like this, the only way any of this stuff can be disproven is if the season ever actually starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, consider this fantasy basketball gospel. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who (besides the league’s owners) might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months … or years? Next up – The Portland Trailblazers ( whom I believe have made a deal with the devil and been touched by an angel –  which would explain so, so much).

Gained –  Raymond Felton, Jon Diebler, Nolan Smith

Lost – Andre Miller

Probable position depth -
PG – Raymond Felton, Armon Johnson, Nolan Smith, Patrick Mills*
SG – Wesley Matthews, Brandon Roy*, Elliot Williams
SF – Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum, Luke Babbit, Jon Diebler
PF – LaMarcus Aldridge*
C – Marcus Camby*, Greg Oden*, Earl Barron*, Chris Johnson

* free agent

Surprising Team Fact From Last Season – It’s somewhat remarkable that the Blazers earned the sixth seed in the West considering they a) played the slowest paced game in the league and b) were in the bottom half in FGA, FGM, FTA and FTM. That, on top of losing two of its three franchise players, and Michael Lewis really needs to write a groundbreaking bestseller on exactly how the Blazers keep winning. (Chapter 1 will be entitled, “Stealing Gerald Wallace from Charlotte helps.”)

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 0,
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) – 2, Aldridge, Wallace
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players   (par 2-3) – 3, Felton
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) – 4, Matthews
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 8, Batum, Camby, Oden, Roy

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season

1. Is Raymond Felton an upgrade from Andre Miller?
Meh. Probably not. Miller averaged 13/4/7 on the league’s slowest team last season. Felton averaged a combined 16/4/8 on two of the league’s fastest teams. I don’t imagine Miller producing much more than he did last year, (maybe an extra two points due to the jolted pace) but I’m a little worried about Felton. He leapfrogged into a second-tier point guard at the beginning of last season helming the new-look Knicks, and for a while, he deserved every bit of such leapfroggery (ßnot a word). But Felton prefers an upbeat game. This was one of Felton’s top complaints on his way out of Charlotte: the pace there was too slow (he averaged 12/4/6 in his final season there). I’m guessing somewhere around 14/4/7 from Felton in addition to his same ruddy shot selection (career .412 shooter).

2. What are the odds that just knowing Batum is capable of a breakout season is enough to tear Gerald Wallace’s ACL? The talent is there (even if the “h” in his first name isn’t), but the minutes won’t be. And as we saw for most of last season, if the minutes aren’t there, neither will the confidence. If you have room, go ahead and stash him on your bench while schadenfreude-ing Crash. Or you can just not draft him.

3. Brandon Roy?
Say no more, Poser of Brief Questions (American Indian name). If I could guarantee one thing, it would be that HBO’s “Luck” is going to be a fascinating television drama. If I could guarantee a second thing though, I would promise that Brandon Roy is going to have just enough solid games to compel fantasy owners to own him. He’ll tease you with a 20 point game as the first guy off the team’s bench while he’s sitting on your fantasy team’s bench. Then you’ll plug him in and he’ll play 15 minutes of foul-riddled sadness. Then he’ll do it again on the night you forgot to take him out of your lineup. Then you’ll bench him and he’ll do well. So, you’ll put him in and he’ll do okay, but not as well as the night before. So you go all in again and he’ll poop all up inside your bed. Then you’ll try to package him with Corey Maggette in a trade for Arron Afflalo when you just shoulda drafted Arron Afflalo in the first place. Brandon Roy isn’t done, but he’ll spell impending doom for just about anyone that drafts him.

Rookie Review! – Nolan Smith (no.21) might have been drafted a bit early, but I’m willing to give Portland the benefit of the doubt here, as they have absolutely no track record of ever drafting poorly before. Sarcasm! Frankly, Smith sounds like a younger Andre Miller. A serviceable PG who can find the open man and knock down a J, but otherwise has limited speed and athleticism. I’m ignoring him now, but if Felton goes bye-bye or gets a boo-boo, he could slide in fairly easily as a last ditch fantasy option for assist. Think: Eric Bledsoe/Randy Foye last year before Mo Williams joined the team. Then there’s Jon Diebler (no. 51). Jon Diebler is a 23-year-old rookie with a sharp shot and little else. He’s an inexperienced Kyle Korver, a less Italian Jason Kopono, a far less douchey Eddie House; take your pick, just don’t pick Diebler.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’11 – Wesley Matthews. I don’t think Matthews is going to flop or anything, but when you have a player coming off of a surprisingly successful second season, owners (rightfully) get jazzed (blazed?) about that player’s prospects for season three. But just look at “Mad Men,” not all third seasons are necessarily better than their predecessors. Yes, he’s the team’s permanent starter, but he’ll not only be sharing a floor with a PG more shoot-willing than Andre Miller, but also with Gerald Wallace. Without Crash on the roster, Matthews averaged almost 17/3/2. Once Crash came over, he averaged 14/2/2. I’m expecting Matthews to fall somewhere in the middle of those two lines, but a lot of people are expecting significant growth.

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’11 – LaMarcus Aldridge. Last year was LMA’s make-or-break season. If he was ever going to be a premiere player, it would have had to have happened last year. Usually, when a player gets to that point, they fail in some way. They get hurt, make a half-step forward, or flop completely. Aldridge delivered. Raised his PER from 18.2 to 21.5, averaged 3.9 more points per game, doubled his blocks and grabbed almost one more board per game. He’s this team’s leader, whether he was destined to be or not.

Deep Sleeper – Greg Oden. What? He’s going to produce less than you’re expecting? Impossible. Unless, of course, you’re not expecting anything from Greg Oden, in which case you’re probably hoping for something substantial from Marcus Camby, which you should not be doing. Scrambled Greg’s per36 stats in the combined 82 games he’s played is 17/13/1, with 3.4 bpg. If that’s not enough to get him drafted with someone’s final pick in medium leagues, I don’t know what is. Well, okay. I can imagine what is, but you get my point.

With the lockout likely to linger well into November and perhaps well into 2012, trying to preview the season of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. Razzball has you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it like this, the only way any of this stuff can be disproven is if the season starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, consider this fantasy basketball gospel. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months … or years? Next up – The New Orleans Hornets (This will be a fun preview to re-read in January when none of these players are still in New Orleans).

Gained – … an increased sense of doom.

Lost – Joe Alexander, David Andersen

Probable position depth -
PG – Chris Paul, Jarrett Jack
SG – Marco Belinelli*, Willie Green*
SF – Trevor Ariza, Quincy Pondexter
PF – David West*, Carl Landry*, Jason Smith*, Patrick Ewing Jr.
C – Emeka Okafor, Aaron Gray*, D.J. Mbenga*

* free agent

Surprising Team Fact From Last Season – The New Orleans Hornets had the toughest road to the playoffs last season according to two factors in particular: 1) They had the fifth-lowest home attendance in basketball (third lowest among playoff teams) and 2) they had the highest Strength of Schedule rating among any team to make the playoffs. Of course, the playoffs weren’t made any easier by the Hornets franchise having to go with  the golden “I’m In” home shirts needed to hide all the Lakers fans in attendance.

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 1, Paul
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) – 2, West
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players   (par 2-3) – 0
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) – 4, Okafor, Ariza
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 7, Landry, Belinelli, Jack

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season

1. Is David West going anywhere and if he isn’t, is his knee back to normal?
Look, everyone on the Hornets is going somewhere. Frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me if NOLA pools every last cent together to keep Chris Paul, while picking a dozen different season ticket holders every night to play alongside him. Who Dat!?! No idea. Well, who dat den? Yeah, that’s just some other regular dude too. Don’t tell me it can’t be done – season ticket sales are up this year! … Until those tickets must all be refunded, of course. Anywhoodle, yeah. There’s a lot of interest in West from other teams and I tend to think he’ll gladly leave. He quietly had an efficient season (his second-best per-minute affair) despite playing fewer mpgs since 2005. Whatever team grabs West will almost certainly make him a major part of its offense, so we’re only looking at his ACL, which was a clean rip by all accounts. Like what Elvis did to Little Richard? Cleaner. Like when Richard Hamilton exits the shower? Cleaner still. Assuming West’s health reports are accurate, I’d draft him as you normally would.

2. Belinelli projects to be the starter, but will he play like one?
I’ll admit, I don’t have high hopes for Belinelli to move that rubber tree plant. Last year, he faced a platoon with Marcus Thornton. Thornton didn’t pose much of a threat, but he posed more of a threat than Slick Willie Green will. Which is the only way I see Belinellillilli improving on his 25 mpg, 11/2/1, 1.7 3ptm season last year. Even if he does improve, it won’t be much more than this. If you’re desperate for threes, I’d consider this guy, but not really for any other reason.

3. When should Carl Landry be drafted? If he stays with N’Awlins or moves to the Blazers, he’s a reserve, but if he gets picked up by Indiana or Milwaukee, ugh, he’ll have to play for one of them!
Easy. If he starts, he’s a top 75 player (16/6/1 in 55 games as a starter), if he’s a reserve he shouldn’t be drafted before the 110th guy is taken (11/5/1 in 212 games). On the Hornets or Blazers, I wouldn’t reach. If he lands a starting job on the Pacers or Bucks, I’d bump him up three or four rounds.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’11 – Trevor Ariza. There are a few players in the league whose per game averages don’t, in any way, reflect the irregularities in their play from game-to-game. Ray Allen, Josh Smith and Danny Granger are all like this. Trevor Ariza is too. For example, on January 1, Ariza ended with a 22/5/0, with 5 stl and 2 3ptm and .625 from the line. Two days later, he shoots .182 from the floor and ends with 4/3/4 with 2 stls. He’ll attract a lot of fantasy owners with his rebounds and assists and the fact that he’s a starter on a team without many big names (especially if West and Landry leave) makes him more attractive than he should be, but Ariza plays his best when others are taking heat away from him. His shooting is horrendous, both on paper and sitting there watching him throw up hopeless shot after hopeless shot. I’d avoid him unless you have a team stacked with efficient shooters and can afford to take a chance on him somewhere between picks 90-105.

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’11 – Chris Paul. … Unless he misses half a season again (assuming every player isn’t forced to miss half the season!). To be honest here, I’m not sure it would take Paul more than half a season to outproduce the rest of this team. I mean, seriously, look at this bench.

Deep Sleeper – Jarrett Jack. He’ll miss the first game of the season due to a driving violation suspension, but with Chris Paul’s injury history, you can usually count on the reserve PG for the Hornets getting at least a couple weeks of solo burn. In his lifetime as a starter, he’s averaged 13/3/5 in 210 starts. Last year, primarily as a reserve, Jack averaged 9/2/3 in 20 mpg. I’ll also add that Jack is a decent play at SG. And now I’ll ask you to review what Belinellillilli averaged in 25 mpgs last season at that position.

With the lockout likely to linger well into November and perhaps well into 2012, trying to preview the season of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. Razzball has you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it like this, the only way any of this stuff can be disproven is if the season starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, consider this fantasy basketball gospel. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months … or years? Next up – The Philadelphia 76ers (chillin’ out, maxin’, relaxin’ all cool).

Gained – Nikola Vucevic, Lavoy Allen

Lost –  Darius Songaila,

Probable position depth -
PG – Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams
SG – Jodie Meeks, Evan Turner, Jason Kopono
SF – Andre Iguodala*, Thaddeus Young*, Andres Nocioni
PF – Elton Brand, Marreese Speights, Craig Brackins, Lavoy Allen
C – Spencer Hawes*, Nikola Vucevic, Tony Battie

* free agent

Surprising Team Fact From Last Season –Four of the six teams with the league’s lowest attendance made the playoffs last year (the Pacers, Grizzlies, Hornets and Sixers).

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 0
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) – 2, Iguodala, Holiday
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players   (par 2-3) – 0
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) – 4, Brand, Young
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 7, Meeks, Hawes, Williams

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season

1. Is Elton Brand still fragile or just old now?
Well look, At 32 years old, I can say Brand is old. I mostly cannot say he’s old because my grandma is reading this over my shoulder and would be hurt at me calling a 32-year-old “old.” (Gram proofreads every Razzball post to ensure I a) don’t type swear words and b) don’t write anything nice about Lyndon B. Johnson. Gram was not a fan of LBJ. She really makes the LeBron James blurbs a tense undertaking).  Brand has only missed seven games in his last two seasons after missing 127 games in the previous two seasons. I’m willing to forget those two seasons and assume that he’s not waiting to fall apart so much as he’s waiting to take a nap. Interpret that information however you’d like.

2. Evan Turner looks like he’s turned (or Turnered) into a monster 7/4/2 option at the two. Can I look forward to such lauded production from last season’s no. 2 overall pick again in 2011? 
I certainly don’t think he’ll produce a smaller line than that. So if you’re in one of those 30-team fantasy leagues that drafts every player in the NBA, I would definitely recommend drafting him in that league. Even with the Lockout still on, I can say with certainty that Evan Turner plays basketball in the NBA. Other than that, I’d take a wait-and-see approach to last year’s no.2 overall pick. This entire off-season has been filled with people telling us how hard Turner has worked and how much support the team is putting behind the former Buckeye, which is nice. But all of this was true a year ago too.

3. I liked Thaddeus Young last year and the year before. My assumption is that I’ll ignore him this season and he’ll develop into a top 50 candidate. Talk me off this ledge I’ve created for myself to stand on.
As it stands today, we’ve seen the best this particular Sixers team can be. With the exception of Vucevic making a bigger impact than Hawes, the team that beat the Heat once in the first round of last year’s playoffs (almost twice) is the team they remain today. And that team has five relatively unknown commodities that could make a name for themselves in 2011. Realistically, between Meeks, Williams, Hawes, Speights and Young, I’d be surprised if more than two of those guys are fantasy-worthy for the majority of the season. And really, I think only Young has it in him to break the top 100. Young turns 23 this season. He seems older than that, he’s been in the league five years now. His PER dipped from 16 to 15 to 14 before hopping back up to 18.4 last season. In just 26 mpg, Young averaged 13/5/1. If Iguodala goes elsewhere or Collins plays Thad at the four, he could see a bump to 32 mpg. He’s already had that and it didn’t work out too well, but that was back when he was 20 and 21 and drunk all the time and chasing after tail (I’m assuming). He’s old now, more mature – not Elton Brand old (look away, Gram!), but old enough that I think he’s got a better shot at keeping it together and playing extended minutes. With Iguodala around, I don’t think Young will be a threat to the top 50 though. At least not this season.

Rookie Review! – I have to admit, I kind of like Nikola Vucevic (no. 16 overall) as a sleeper pick in deep leagues. From what little I’ve seen, he reminds me of Roy Hibbert on the offensive end. He has decent range and enjoys the occasionally baby hook from both sides. What makes him even more attractive than his moves is the team he’ll be making them on. Spencer Hawes is Vucevic’s biggest hurdle. Now, Spencer Hawes is a huge hurdle, unless we are speaking in metaphors, in which case, Spencer Hawes is not at all a huge hurdle. Hawes is more athletic and Vucevic might struggle to keep up with an otherwise speedy Philly team. That, mixed with the kid’s inexperience, is why I wouldn’t take him in any league with fewer than 14 teams. Still though, he’s worth keeping an eye on just in case. Please don’t make me go into detail as to why you should not draft the 50^th pick in the NBA Draft (Lavoy Allen).

Fantasy Disappointment in ’11 – Andre Iguodala. You may have noticed above that I’m projecting Iguodala to go first in most drafts among Philadelphia 76ers. I do and he will. You watch. He’s a total contributor on the court, which has made him a valuable top 25 fantasy player for the last six seasons. The problem is, Iggy’s always been a defensive no. 2 thrust into the role of top offensive option. I think this is the year that guys like Holiday, Young, Brand and maybe one other sleeper steps up offensively and allows Iguodala to do what he does best: fill in the cracks. If he stays on the Sixers, I envision one of the strongest real basketball seasons for Iguodala in 2011, but given his type of play, I don’t think fantasy owners will like this translation to fantasy. I see something closer to 12/6/6, with 3 stl+blk+3ptm rather than 20/5/5, with 4 stl+blk+3ptm.

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’11 – Jrue Holiday. I’m big on Holiday this year. He’s projecting to go somewhere in between picks 45-65 in most drafts. I’d place him about one round ahead of those projections; somewhere around 40-55. He improved offensively and defensively between his freshman and sophomore year, jumping from 12/4/6, with 3.3 stl+blk+3ptm per36 averages in 2009 to 14/4/7, with 2.9 s+b+3 and improved percentages using the same per36 parameters last season. The guy got better. In both November and April of last year, he averaged 15/4/8 despite shooting under .450 from the field in those months. This season, I project he shoots better, feels more comfortable and continues his growth. Jrue story.

Deep Sleeper – Evan Turner. If Williams and Meeks get hurt, and Doug Collins stops telling Holiday to play keepaway with Turner and you squint your eyes tight enough to envision George Hill or Rip Hamilton or somebody (which would probably mean you just closed your eyes), then yeah, Turner might have a bounce-back season.

With the lockout likely to linger well into October and perhaps into November, trying to preview the season of 30 teams that might not actually have one seems about as worthwhile as raking leaves on a windy day. But I love raking and the wind only makes it last longer. We here at Razzball have you covered, even if you didn’t want to be covered. That’s love. You’ll appreciate it when you’re older. Look at it this way, the only way any of this stuff can be disproven is if the season starts. So go ahead, NBA, make me a fibber! I dare you. Until then, consider this fantasy basketball gospel. Don’t even bother reading anything else – dem’s all lies. From now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2011 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each team in order to paint a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting? Who might surprise you? And who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The New York Knicks (who are generally un-enjoyable, but just try anyway).

Gained – Iman Shumpert, Josh Harrellson, Mike Woodson

Lost –  Jerome Jordan, Kelenna Azuibuke

Probable position depth -
PG – Chauncey Billups, Toney Douglas, Anthony Carter
SG – Landry Fields, Iman Shumpert, Andy Rautins, Roger Mason Jr.
SF – Carmelo Anthony, Shawne Williams, Bill Walker
PF – Amar’e Stoudemire, Jared Jeffries, Shelden Williams, Renaldo Balkman, Derrick Brown*
C – Ronny Turiaf, Josh Harrellson

* free agent

Surprising Team Fact From Last Season – Of the three leading teams in pace last season (Wolves, Knicks and Nuggs), New York was the only one outside the top 5 in both FGA and FTA. Minnesota finished 2^nd in FGA. Denver finished 1^st in FTA. Basically, the Knicks have plenty of opportunities to score; they just don’t do as much with it as they should.

Number of Top 20 Fantasy Players   (par 0-1) – 2, Anthony, Stoudemire
Number of Top 50 Fantasy Players   (par 1-2) –
Number of Top 75 Fantasy Players   (par 2-3) – 3, Billups
Number of Top 100 Fantasy Players (par 3-4) –
Number of Top 200 Fantasy Players (par 6-7) – 5, Shumpert. Douglas

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season

1. Will Carmelo’s surgeries to his head, elbows, knees and toes (knees and toes!) hurt him or help him?
Chronic bursitis caused him to have arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and elbow, but he says he’s been dealing with bursitis for seven years. If the suggestion here is that we’ve been watching an injured Carmelo Anthony throughout his career, then I’d say … what the hell were the doctors in Denver doing all this time not fixing their franchise player?

2. Any chance Roger Mason Jr. won’t get booed in his first home game of the new season … which will probably be sometime in January?
Yes, there’s a very good chance, actually. This damn team has nine guys that could play the guard position and Junior Mason is the least talented of ‘em all. Frankly, if they don’t boo him for his representative role in the impending lockout, they should boo him for taking minutes away from Shumpert and Rautins.  

3. Is Landry Fields a fantasy option this season?
Not if you’re interested in competing in your league. There’s a reason New York drafted Shumpert, despite having seven other players who could fit the position. Lest we not forget the NY Post and Newsday reports back in May and June that said the team doesn’t have confidence Fields is a starting SG for a playoff-bound team. Not that such a report closes the door on Fields altogether. This is the Knicks, after all. They could start Fields and just skip the playoffs and no one would be shocked.

Rookie Review! – Iman Shumpert (No.17) comes into the league with the third-highest vertical among active players behind only Vince Carter and Nate Robinson. So there’s that. He’s also projected to be the Knicks’ best defender. So there’s that on top of the first thing. He’s apparently strong like a bulldog and can get to the line on quickness and agility alone, but he’s going to be a SG on this team. And his style of play is that of someone who needs the ball in his hands to make something happen – which won’t happen on a team with Billups, Anthony and Stoudemire. So now there’s that drizzled over the rest of it. Then there’s the New Orleans acquisition the Knicks made after someone in the front office went, “Holy Shizz! Our only center is Ronny Turiaf and he’s hurt, like every other week!” Enter: Josh Harrellson. Dude’s nickname is “Jorts” and his upside is “decent role player.” That’s all you need to know.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’11 – Chauncey Billups. Chauncey Billups, why can’t you age like Steve Nash?

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’11 – Carmelo Anthony. Stoudemire is the obvious pick here, as he was the bigger contributor last year, has the potential to fill more of the stat sheet than ‘Melo and has center eligibility in most leagues. He also injured his back in late May and is still affected by it today. I don’t want a guy with a long history of health issues and a current health issue as my first pick – or in this case, my first Knick. Anthony, on the other hand, exploded when he came to New York. I mean exploded in a good way, not the way the Stay Puft marshmallow man exploded after he arrived in New York. This ‘Melo man produced eerily similar numbers in his 27 regular season games in New York as he did in 50 games with Denver. The biggest differences were his percentages and his three-point shooting. He went from a .452/.833 shooter averaging 25/8/3 with 0.8 3ptm per game with the Nuggets to a .461/.872 shooter averaging 26/7/3 with 2 3ptm per game with the Knicks. He went from an elite scorer to an eliter scorer (not a real term) now with threes. Then in the playoffs he proved it wasn’t a fluke by averaging 26/10/5 with 2.3 3ptm in four games against a Celtics team that limiting him to shooting just .375 from the field. I like Anthony to go off this year a) to cover for an injured Amar’e, b) free from the shackles of yesteryear’s trade rumors and c) on a team that made a cameo in the playoffs and could make a better showing this season.

Deep Sleeper – Iman Shumpert. I’m biased here because the kid went to the hometown elementary school I still have my weekly shootarounds in. Go Whittier Wildcats!