Fantasy Basketball Advice

There were three guards I remember teasing in the comment sections of Razzball’s preseason posts back in September/October. The first was Mike Conley, the second was Kyle Lowry and Jared Dudley was third. Why? Are you asking me why I taunted these three or why I remember it? And before you clarify, understand that a) I’m only going to answer one of those two questions, 2) This is a one-way conversation and I won’t hear whatever it is you yell at your computer screen, and c) you didn’t even notice that I went a) then 2) then c), did you? Conley had just gone from an underachiever to an overpaid underachiever, Lowry looked to be stuck with Aaron Brooks purloining his minutes all season and Dudley was fifth on Phoenix’s SG/SF depth chart just hoping to earn five dunks before April. So this is me tossing crow into the deep fryer, pulling it out with tongs and spritzing it with lemon in preparation of eating it. There is a case to be made that no crow should be eaten without a spritz of lemon, just as there is a case to be made that Dudley’ll do-right for fantasy owners in 2011.

So what makes Jared a do-right man, Aretha? Besides leading the Suns in 3PT%, STL and games played, Dudley saw a sharp increase in most of his counting stats along with a career-high 26.1 mpg. Frankly, he was the only two-guard all season that neither left the team nor sucked. If it wasn’t for November, where he only averaged 17.7 mpg, dude’s season would have looked morelike 13/4/2, with 3 3ptm+stl than the 11/4/1, 2.5 3ptm+stl his season total left him with. Since his exodus from Charlotte in ’08, Dudley has always been viewed as a very talented player able to hold his own in this league. Not a killer persay, not a superstar, but someone who could easily average, well, 13/4/2 per night. Dudley will be 26 in 2011, and if he hasn’t hit his peak already, he’s no more than a season away from doing so. But Jason Richardson is gone, Vince Carter’s skills are receding worse than LeBron’s hairline and there’s a good chance Dudley’s 15/6/2, 3.8 3ptm+stl April was enough to propel him to a starting gig, or at least 30+ mpg, next season. His FT% is sub-par for a guard sinking 42 percent of his threes, but he’s solid everywhere else and isn’t likely to be drafted before the 120th pick in the draft. I like him for 14/4/2, 3 3ptm+stl next season, which you’ll accept in the late round and ask no further questions.

I suppose I could be a tad blinded by Jeff Teague‘s second-round production in these playoffs, but it’s not as if the 16/2.5/4, with 1.5 steals he’s averaged after four postseason games against the Bulls is somehow disconnected from his future. This time last year, after the Hawks took flight from the postseason, then-coach Mike Woodson said he’d give Teague “first crack” at starting in 2010. Then Woodson was fired. So there went that … until co-owner Michael Gearon Jr. re-iterated Woodson’s plan. So they tried him out, ran him hard in the preseason and he stunk. They went with Mike Bibby instead and tried out Teague again in February. And he stunk. So then they went with Hinrich. Then Hinrich hurt himself against Orlando and Atlanta chad no choice but turn to Teague in the Chicago series. And even though Teague’s season hasn’t ended yet, the 22-year-old has already shown he can play in this league. So what might Teague offer fantasy owners next season?

/Looks at what Teague might offer fantasy owners next season. Frowns. Re-checks the stats sheets. Pours a shot of leftover Kentucky Derby bourbon. Then another. Remembers that bourbon tastes like ignited hair. Runs to the kitchen sink. Dunks head under faucet. Loses breath. Gets water inside eardrum. Now everything is muffled. Tries to remember what caused all this. Remembers Jeff Teague.\ Okay, first the bad (and most of it is bad). Teague played in 70 games, all but seven coming on as a reserve. He averaged four more minutes and two more points this year than in ’09 and boosted his FG% from an atrocious .396 to a terrible .438. The bright side is, his PER went up, his ORtg went up, his USG% went up and he displayed better defense during the 2010 regular season than he did a season earlier. Now, of course, those increases are inches in a game of miles. At 14 mpgs, Teague was like a middle-aged white guy and the Hawks were a Sly Stone concert: he just couldn’t find his rhythm. Teague shot .485 from the floor in his final year at Wake Forest, and one should assume he’ll climb his way back near that level over the next few years. Split the difference between his last college year and his first two pro years (.420) and it’s not too much to imagine him shooting at least .440 next season. Mingle that in with his improved defensive rating (105) that proved to be better than Kirk Hinrich’s (109) and we might be onto something. Again, the Hawks brass have said they want Teague to helm the team in the future, not Hinrich (a player many have labeled as a great back-up anyway). J.T. was rough in 2010, but he’s played better in his last four games than either Bibby or Hinrich in any four-game stretch this season – and in a much higher-stakes situation. I’d rather own Teague’s 14/3/5 upside in 2011, than Hinrich’s guaranteed 10/3/4.

With apologies to Señior Ramon, the only way we’re going to properly pump Ramon Sessions is to properly dump Baron Davis. It has to be this way. It’s a law of nature. Like women always hanging their handbags at the bend of their elbow despite having two free hands. Or that literature written by women doesn’t suck because it’s authored by them, it sucks because it’s about them. This is the same thing. It’s impossible to hype a backup sleeper without havin’ a go at the guy he’s backing up. So here we go. Firstly, two teams and a pair of knees rejected Baron Davis last year. That’s not good. And while his PER and per36 stats were closely aligned with his production from the previous two seasons, you have to wonder about his body. Not in the same way one wonders about Rihanna’s body. Davis came into Clippers camp busted and he left Cleveland in the same condition 82 games later. And that was at the age of 31. Your abacus tells you he’ll be 32 next year and on an even more hopeless squad than any of his three Clippers rosters. He’s missed 24 percent of his teams’ total games over the last nine seasons (178/738), has only appeared in 68+ games twice in that time and again, nothing about last year’s circumstances will improve next season. And so now let’s compare that outlook with Sessions’ for 2011 fantasy basketball.

Quietly, amid the clatter and clang of a pitiful post-LeBron Cleveland franchise, Sessions jumped from a 12.9 PER in 2009 to a 19 PER. By season’s end, he was widely owned, but only as a stopgap for whichever busted PG you were probably stuck with at some point this season (or in real basketball for Mo Williams and then for Baron Davis). Sessions was an afterthought for half of his time in Milwaukee, was traded to Minnesota where he was an afterthought there too and then traded to Cleveland where, only when they completely ran out of options was he not an afterthought. And he thrived. He’s thrived everywhere he’s been given a chance. Three lousy teams, yes, but this is fantasy and we don’t see NBA win-loss records, do we? Davis will enter the 2011 season as Cleveland’s starting PG, but what are the odds he starts more games next year than this year (44)? And of the games he plays, what are the odds he averages more than the 28 mpg he averaged in 2010? Sessions averaged 15/4/6 in 31 mpgs as a starter last year; better than Augustin, Conley and Udrih (not combined – that would be bananas). He’s not underutilized-but-explosive like 2010 Ty Lawson, doesn’t have stupendous upside like 2011 Jeff Teague, doesn’t shoot threes, steal or block much, but he’ll be 25 and has improved every season in his last four. He doesn’t need to start to have value, he needs to have a permanent roll and that roll needs to come packaged with at least 25-28 mpgs. He averaged 26.3 last season and will play behind the top 20 point guard owners least want to own. Is grabbing his 13.5/4/5 handcuff in the 12th round really that much of a stretch?

When people reflect on the 2010-11 playoffs, they’ll think any number of the following thoughts: 1) Bill Simmons probably went nuts jibbering on about Rudy Gay further proving his “Ewing Theory” that sometimes good players make a team worse. 2) The Heat can turn themselves up to 11, they just haven’t had a reason to yet. 3) Danny Ainge made a mistake getting rid of Kendrick Perkins. 4) Carlos Boozer? Not that big of a deal. 5) Turns out Duncan really is just getting old. 6) Turns out Tony Parker really isn’t that good of a point guard against strong interior defense. 7) Drafting Serge Ibaka in the third round next season probably won’t happen, but might not be nuts if it did. 8 ) Dallas and Pau? In finesse games, soft doesn’t mean unsuccessful. 9) Dwight Howard is surrounded by junk . Swap Dwight with the best player on any other NBA team and that team would have a better record than Orlando this season. Yes, even Cleveland. Yes, even Minnesota. 10) The Sixers – one year older – might be a scary team in 2011. We’ll stop at that last one, which shouldn’t surprise you. I mean, you know this post is all about Louis Williams, did you think I was going to talk about Tim Duncan for 450 words? The Sixers are Iguodala and a roster full of keepers and sleepers. That’s an exciting proposition for a team’s fan base looking to get out of the first round of future playoffs and a terrifying one for fantasy owners figuring out which of those players are worth owning next season. Let’s see why Screwy Looey might be a fantasy sleeper in 2011.

The elephant in the room here is that Williams didn’t have a good playoff series against Miami. He shot .327 in Round 1, inexplicably digressing from his .406 regular season percentage. So there’s that. Williams’ two best games coincided with Philly’s only victory and their closest loss. So there’s that too. Williams is like a supporting character in a TV drama. He isn’t involved in most of the main story arcs, kinda hits similar notes whenever he’s in a scene, and yet, Philly wouldn’t be better off without him. Think: Doc Cochran from Deadwood, Bubbles from The Wire, A.J. from The Sopranos or Joan from Mad Men. Williams’ minutes dwindled in the final three months of the season (from 26 to 25 to 23 to 20 between January and April), partly because of injuries, partly because Iguodala returned from injury and partly in-line with Jodie Meeks’ ebbing and flowing. Through it all, Williams improved his PER to a career-high 18.9 and solidified his role as the first guard off the bench. Having averaged seven fewer MPGs this season than last, Williams’ per36 stats illuminated his career-best 3PTM, PTS and second-bests in AST and FT%. In short, he’s tightening up his game. His FG% is still dreadful, sure, but he’ll only be 25 next season and I’m expecting Williams to hit his peak accordingly. Does that mean he cracks the top 100 next year? Nah. Not unless Philly sees substantial injuries. But J.R. Smith, Ronnie Brewer, Afflalo, Arenas, Mike Miller and Shannon Brown will all likely get drafted in 12-team leagues or deeper next season and I can see Williams’ 14/2.5/4, with 2.5 3ptm+stls proving better than anything those other guys do. Church.

There are really just two numbers you need to know when it comes to evaluating James Harden. The first is 29.9. The second is 23. And, really, those numbers aren’t even connected to Harden – they’re connected to Thabo Sefolosha, so there. Sorry for the immediate mind screw. Sefolosha was starting and playing 29.9 minutes per contest through December to start the season. By April, the Thunder, like Van Halen, realized they weren’t their best selves with the Thabo Wabo guy and regrouped. With Sefolosha down to a hair under 23 minutes per game, Harden became a bear after the All-Star Break. Not the 300-pound hairy-chested prison inmate sporting lipstick and volatile expectations, the kind of bear that was first off the bench and wrecked a ton of opponent benches. Harden didn’t start a game in ’09, he started five in ’10 and my guess is he doubles that next year and starts seeing 30+ mpgs. Here’s what else we’re looking at with Harden in 2011.

It’s easy to forget that Harden was the third pick in the ’09 draft. He was a rookie the year the Thunder became respectful, but all eyes were on Durant becoming Mana from Texas and Westbrook becoming enough of a playmaker to keep the Thunder from being a one-trick bison. Harden was a respectable rookie, but his beard hadn’t fully grown in and so we ignored him. Last season, the guy had the fourth-highest PER on the team behind Westbrook, Durant and Ibaka and with Sefolosha’s backcourt defense becoming less valuable with Perkins and Ibaka in the front court, there’s less reason to play Sefolosha more than 34 mpgs (as illustrated in the second half of the season). Everything points to the trend started in March (29 mpg/.494 FG%/1.7 3ptm/16.8 pts/1.4 stl) and continued in the first round of the playoffs (29.3 mpgs) following him into next season. He won’t score as much as some owners banking on his March production will hope for (he’s never shot over .470 from the field in any other month so far in his career and it’s usually much lower), but he’ll give you a little of everything else you need. Even if he only sees a bump up to 30 minutes all season (up from 26.7), mix in another year of experience under his belt and a more complimentary roster than the first 16 months of his career and I could see him sticking 14/5/2.5, with a combined three blks+stls+3ptm per game up on the wall.

* I’m not sure Sefolosha brings quantifiably better defense to the table than Harden (Sefolosha has a 106 DRtg, Harden’s is 108, but whatever).