You gotta have a draft routine; the things you do or eat or wear to ensure you’re in the best possible zone while picking players that you will spend the next seven, er, five months swearing at. What do you mean LaMarcus Aldridge might miss the start of the season? He was my fourth pick! Oh, that sonuvabee! Personally, I enjoy conducting my drafts with a bottle of marshmallow-flavored vodka and a seat in my massage chair without the constraints of wearing pants. My draft game is on point, believe. Don’t worry, fellow Wall’s Dougie Leaguers, we won’t be in the same room, so it won’t be an issue. Really, it’s only an issue in live drafts. My friends get weird about the semi-nudity. Frankly, they should be less worried about that and more worried about all the marshmallow vodka I’m no longer planning on sharing since they made fun of me.
Another important draft day tool designed to make you feel most comfortable is the 2011 Fantasy Basketball Draft Tiers. <– Note: don’t click that link if you do not want to see the spreadsheet. I probably didn’t have to tell you that, but they have warnings on Tide containers asking parents not to let their children do shots of detergent, so I might as well cover my bases.
I find that having draft tiers handy saves a lot of time in middle-to-late rounds. You must find that to be true, too, because a fair amount of you asked about this year’s draft tiers. Well, here ’tis. By the end of your draft, most drafters are focusing in on either specific stats necessary to round out their teams or specific positions. And even among those searching for specific stats, usually only two or three positions are possible destinations to find that player you’re looking for.
The list is divided among the top five positions, which you already know if you’ve already peaked at the list. But if you’ve already peeked at the list, I’m at a loss as to why you’ve gone back to read this last part. Anyway …
With the top 100 lists sealed in the vault (that could very easily be re-opened by anyone by clicking here), we’ve finished the Lavergne, the Shirley and the Lenny of fantasy basketball lists. Time to get Squiggy with it! These are the best of the rest. These are the names that make good teams great and great teams unbeatable by February. Elton Brand, Ty Lawson, Michael Beasley, J.J. Hickson, Greg Monroe, Serge Ibaka, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Tyson Chandler all came out of the 100-200 rankings last year. You’ll notice none of those guys are here this year. Some of the guys listed here, won’t be next year. It’s a cruel truth. I wish I could tell you that it won’t happen, but it will. You’ve been to the dentist before, so you know the drill. Every team is different. Just because a guy you want is ranked below a guy you don’t, go with what best fills out your roster. Everything is relative. There is no spoon. Smell the air, catch your breath. It’s the 2011 top 200 for fantasy basketball, snitches!
We’ve run through the fantasy basketball rankings for each position – well, you ran through them. I sprinted for a bit, started feeling woozy, then threw up all over my slacks. I don’t know why I wore slacks to a sprint, but I made sure to wear bicycling shorts to today’s 2011 fantasy basketball top 100. … I’m sorry. I was just informed I am wearing John Stockton’s game worn shorts, not bike underoos. My mistake. On so many levels. Anyway, feel free to click the link at the top of this paragraph or shift your eyes to the menu bar above this post and click there. Whichever. Like all these here rankings, the top 100 is organized using a hybrid of roto and H2H leagues. Let’s get it on! Here’s your top 100 for fantasy basketball:
1. Kevin Durant – If you need this pick explained to you, go ahead and stop chasing the white rabbit, because you ain’t never getting out of Wonderland.
Season Projections: .470/.880/2 3pt/29 pts/6 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov
2. LeBron James – Villain schmillain. General Patton wasn’t any fun to go to movies with either. Didn’t stop anyone from wanting to go into war with him leading the way.
Season Projections: .515/.755/1 3ptm/25 pts/7 rbd/7 ast/1.5 stl/1 blk/3 tov
3. Chris Paul – He’ll either be playing alongside three all-stars this season or alone on an emaciated squad full of scrubs doing three all-stars-worth of work.
Season Projections: .480/.860/1 3ptm/18 pts/4 rbd/9.5 ast/2.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
4. Derrick Rose – Malik, Jalen and McGowan are soooo jealous of Derrick’s rank.
Season Projections: .460/.850/1 3ptm/24 pts/4 rbd/8 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/3 tov
5. Dirk Nowitzki – Say goodbye to the top five after this season, Dirk. It happens to the best of us. Also, it happened to three of your teammates, Jason, Vince and Shawn.
Season Projections: .475/.885/1 3ptm/22.5 pts/7 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov
6. Pau Gasol – A brief conversation with my lady about the defunct Hornets-Rockets-Lakers trade: MY LADY: “So was there a big trade today?” ME: “Huge. L.A. traded its best player, Pau, for New Orleans’ best player, Chris Paul.” MY LADY: So where do the Rockets fit in?” ME: “They threw in some players and will get Pau Gasol, who they might use to replace a guy they lost last year named Yao.” MY LADY: “Yao Gasol?” ME:” No, Pau Gasol.” MY LADY: “Right. Chris Pau for Yao Gasol. So where do the Hornets come in?” ME: “There is no Yao. The Hornets have Chris Paul.” MY LADY: Ooo, Chris Paul. I thought you were saying “pow.” / Adam slams Sprite can on the ottoman out of frustration.
Season Projections: .510/.830/0 3ptm/23 pts/10.5 rbd/3.5 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov
7. Dwyane Wade – Sweet pick-up. What’s even sweeter: now you don’t have to bother with shooting guards until it’s at least Marco Belinelli time! (My buddy Justin bet me I couldn’t rationally fit Belinelli into the top 10 without mentioning Chris Paul. My buddy Justin is not a smart man.)
Season Projections: .485/.765/0.5 3pt/26 pts/6 rbd/5 ast/1.5 stl/1 blk/3 tov
8. Stephen Curry – Admit it, you’re still not sold on Stephen Curry being a top 10 guy and you’re fighting the temptation to just pick Kobe Bryant. Keep fighting it. If you’re one of the last picks in a snake draft, Bean will still be there on the way back.
Season Projections: .470/.895/2 3ptm/21 pts/4 rbd/7 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/3 tov
9. Deron Williams – You gonna argue the high ranking of a TURKISH LEGEND!?! No. I didn’t think you would.
Season Projections: .475/.800/1 3ptm/19 pts/4 rbd/10.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/3 tov
10. Kevin Love – You know that five spot I said Dirk was likely vacating after this season? This guy has already filled it on a lot of lists. I’m a bit more frugal. I take things slow. I waited nine years after we were married before I kissed my wife for the first time.
Season Projections: .475/.845/1 3pt/19 pts/14 rbd/3 ast/0.5 stl/0 blk/2 tov
11. Carmelo Anthony – I find myself wondering quite often if Carmelo Anthony ever thinks about Allen Iverson . Even just for a minute.
Season Projections: .455/.835/1.5 3ptm/25.5 pts/7 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov
12. Kobe Bryant – When the Lockout was at its darkest and it looked all but certain that this season would pass us by, the cries that this was Bryant’s last good season were almost as shrill as Mila Kunis’ voice. A part of me wants y’all to chill on the “Kobe’s almost done” talk, another part of me knows that if his last good day isn’t today, it will be tomorrow. And yet, another part of me just wants a Hot Pocket.
Season Projections: .450/.825/1 3ptm/25 pts/4.5 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0 blk/3.5 tov
13. Dwight Howard – Howard shot .718 from inside five feet last season. He also dunked the ball 227 times as compared to NJ’s 269 as a team. I’m not explaining this to you, as much as I’m explaining it to the guy reading this over your shoulder who doesn’t understand why the Nets would offer up Brook Lopez for a guy whose head is three sizes too tiny for his shoulders.
Season Projections: .575/.593/0 3pt/20.5 pts/14 rbd/1.5 ast/1.5 stl/2.5 blk/3.5 tov
14. Blake Griffin – It gives me armpit sweat thinking he’s only a sophomore/junior (depending on how you define the start of his pro career).
Season Projections: .495/.670/0 3ptm/25 pts/11.5 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov
15. Russell Westbrook – Word up, Russ. Things going well this offseason? Definitely, definitely. Excited for your fourth season?Definitely, definitely. Well, that’s great.
Season Projections: .440/.829/0.5 3ptm/21 pts/4 rbd/9 ast/2 stl/0.5 blk/4 tov
16. Amar’e Stoudemire – Here’s where you should take pause: Stoudemire hasn’t been on a team this talented since the height of the Nash/Marion/Johnson Suns teams. With a guy like Amar’e, I tend to think he works better among great players instead of being the alpha male. I know HE doesn’t think that, but I do. When he’s alone, his stats are like your devlish good looks – enjoy ‘em now, ’cause it’s only a matter of time before everything starts drooping.
Season Projections: .515/.795/0 3pt/24 pts/8 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1 blk/3 tov
17. Al Horford - I think this Atlanta Hawks nucleus has seen its best days (and frankly, those days weren’t all that spectacular). Crawford, Johnson and Smith are all down-trending and unless this team is going to totally fall off the map, I think Horford and, to a lesser extent, Teague, are to be the ones to slow its roll.
Season Projections: .545/.777/0 3pt/16.5 pts/10 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov
18. Rudy Gay – I think it’s about time Rudy Gay replace Sonny Weems in the NBA’s Sweetass Blues Band Revue®. Taj Gibson is down, but Wayne Ellington is being a total dick about it.
Season Projections: .460/.775/1 3pt/19.5 pts/6 rbd/3 ast/1.5 stl/1 blk/2 tov
19. Monta Ellis – Monta Illest has led the league in mpg and total minutes in each of the last two seasons. Knowing Monta (which I do not, at all) he’ll try to surpass both minute marks this season despite there being 16 fewer games. I don’t think he’ll succeed. He’ll give us just a tad under what he gave us last year. Well, gave you, maybe. He didn’t give me nothing, ’cause I was too busy drafting Stupid Joe Johnson (™).
Season Projections: .445/.770/1 3ptm/24.5 pts/3.5 rbd/5 ast/2 stl/0 blk/3.5 tov
20. Danny Granger – Granger’s the poster boy for three underwhelming games followed by one monster game to even out the averages. That poster is worse than anything with Katherine Heigl on it.
Season Projections: .445/.850/2 3pt/22 pts/5.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1.5 stl/1 blk/2 tov
21. LaMarcus Aldridge – Pat yourself on the back, young fella. You just got yourself Aldridge 21 picks into the draft. I’m right proud of you!
Season Projections: .495/.775/0 3pt/21 pts/8.5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov
22. John Wall – Wall’s been practicing on that jumper all summer (and fall). They say practice makes perfect. I’d settle for practice makes 46 percent.
Season Projections: .440/.770/0.5 3pt/19.5 pts/4.5 rbd/8 ast/1 stl/1 blk/3 tov
23. Al Jefferson – I’d be interested to know what percentage of drafts LMA and Jefferson are taken within five picks of one another, I bet it’s more than 60 percent. I can say that because there’s no way for anyone to check me.
Season Projections: .495/.710/0 3pt/19.5 pts/10 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov
24. David Lee – Lee’s still one of the best PF in the league. But he only managed to play 73 games last season, fewer than 20 of which he was all that healthy for; so he took his lumps. Being elite doesn’t stop anyone from having to perform … actually, that’s not even close to true. The biggest perk of being elite is not having to perform. This list is ruined.
Season Projections: .529/.784/0 3pt/19 pts/11.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
25. Josh Smith – Smoove needs to stay a) motivated and b) away from the three-point line when he shoots the ball. He does that, he could be a value pick at 25. Hopefully he doesn’t read this and assume I’m daring him to shoot farther away from the basket than the three-point line. Oh, crap. I really wish I hadn’t rubber cemented the delete key. Now that mistake will just have to ride.
Season Projections: .488/.699/0.5 3pt/16.5 pts/8 rbd/3.5 ast/1.5 stl/1.5 blk/2.5 tov
26. Tyreke Evans – I haven’t been this hopeful for a foot and ankle to hold up since my ballet recital at fifth grade fat camp.
Season Projections: .449/.779/0.5 3pt/19.5 pts/5.5 rbd/6.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/3 tov
27. Steve Nash – Remember when People magazine debuted and Hank Aaron became baseball’s home run king? Steve Nash does. That’s a problem.
Season Projections: .480/.935/1 3pt/14.5 pts/3 rbd/10 ast/0.5 stl/0 blk/3.5 tov
28. Brook Lopez – He’s the worst rebounding center in the league. He grabbed 10 percent of the available rebounds while he was on the court. But Adam, advanced statistics are more complicated than the lyrics to any song by the Decemberists. How bad is that 10 percent? Well, compare that to Kevin Love’s league-best 23.6 percent.
Season Projections: .505/.800/0 3pt/22.5 pts/7 rbd/2 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/2.5 tov
29. Kevin Martin – He annually feels like a player who belongs somewhere in the fifth or sixth round because of his injuries. He also annually has stretches where he plays like a top 10 guy. No. 29 feels appropriate.
Season Projections: .430/.910/2 3pt/22.5 pts/3.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov
30. Gerald Wallace – 29-years-old, no longer the team’s best offensive option and has been rumored to be on his way to Orlando so the Nets can have Dwight Howard. What happened, Crash? You used to inspire magic. Now you just might have to settle for being on its roster.
Season Projections: .470/.759/0.5 3pt/15.5 pts/7.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1.5 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov
31. Rajon Rondo – Rondo is so much better at real basketball than fake basketball. He’s your little brother’s version of Jason Kidd.
Season Projections: .515/.600/0 3ptm/12 pts/5 rbd/10.5 ast/2.5 stl/0 blk/3 tov
32. Zach Randolph – Lionel Hollins on the first day of open camp, “Hey is Zach here yet?” Yeah, boss. He got here a couple minutes ago. “How’d he look? Did he get fat? Tell me he didn’t get fat.” No, boss. He looks good. In shape. “Don’t lie to me, son. I’ve been afraid of this moment since July 1.” No, boss. He looks good. Have you seen Kendrick Perkins? “No. Did he get fatter?”
Season Projections: .485/.770/0 3pt/20 pts/11.5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
33. Manu Ginobili – When healthy, he’s a great asset. But you’ve got to factor in his past health issues and you gotta factor in his age. That’s what’s called Manufactoring. It’s a troubled industry here in the States.
Season Projections: .455/.859/1.5 3pt/18 pts/5 rbd/5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov
34. Chris Bosh – Chris Bosh is a great player who had a down season, took his lumps, put on some muscle, stayed right in the offseason and will improve on his 2010 performance. Chris Bosh paid me $425K to write that.
Season Projections: .505/.812/0 3pt/19.5 pts/8 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
35. Andre Iguodala – Last year represented the beginning of Iguodala 3.0, in which he becomes a defensive entity with a little offense instead of the team leader. Live it. Love it. Leave it alone.
Season Projections: .469/.714/0.5 3pt/14.5 pts/6 rbd/6 ast/1.5 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov
36. Paul Pierce – You know what you’re getting with Pierce. It’s like going to a Jessica Biel movie. It’s not going to change your life or anything, but you didn’t choose it for that. You chose it for a chance to see Pierce in his underwear. Or, you know, whatever.
Season Projections: .470/.840/1.5 3pt/19 pts/5.5 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/3 tov
37. Eric Gordon – Improved a ton last season, but also missed 26 games (46 missed games in his last two seasons) and defenses never got a hold of him because they were busy adjusting to Griffin and their rotating cavalcade of point guards. I think Gordon is legit, but not without a little settling down this season.
Season Projections: .470/.810/1.5 3pt/20 pts/2.5 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
38. Jrue Holiday – Most Improved Player, 2011-12? Most Improved Player, 2011-12.
Season Projections: .460/.815/1 3pt/18 pts/3.5 rbd/7.5 ast/2 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
39. Nene Hilario – Solid all-around center. That said, I don’t trust anyone who names himself Nene and then insists everyone refer to him only as that. That man ain’t right.
Season Projections: .590/.715/0 3pt/15 pts/8 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov
40. Arron Afflalo – This will almost certainly be Spellcheck’s best statistical season yet, but just know that he’s not a huge scorer and 15 points is about as good as it gets.
Season Projections: .460/.830/1.5 3pt/15 pts/4 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov
41. Joe Johnson – There’s going to be some fantasy team out there with David Lee, George Hill and Johnson and it’s going to be the guys-with-names-that-sound-like-they-came-out-of-the-Witness-Protection-Program team.
Season Projections: .450/.810/1 3pt/17 pts/4 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov
42. Tony Parker – I know you don’t like Tony Parker this high. But you can’t count on Manu all year. Duncan is, like, 60-something years old, and Richard Jefferson did not turn into someone who is good at basketball over the long break. Yet, if I asked you whether you believed the Spurs would make the playoffs, you’d almost certainly say, “yes!” So you tell me … who gets San Antonio to the playoffs?
Season Projections: .494/.777/0 3pt/19.5 pts/3.5 rbd/5.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/3 tov
43. Joakim Noah – If his recent production trend continues, expect his value to continue arcing upward next season. Who’s arc? I think you see where I’m headed.
Season Projections: .519/.711/0 3pt/13 pts/12.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2.5 tov
44. Paul Millsap – “Utah: home of the unending streak of big men who get in my way despite not being anywhere as good as me.” – embroidered message on Paul Millsap’s pillow
Season Projections: .522/.733/0 3pt/18 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov
45. David West – Well, I’ll say this for him. He’s good enough to replace Tyler Hansbrough. So he’s got that going for him.
Season Projections: .471/.829/0 3pt/18 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
46. Ty Lawson – The Denver Nuggets: Where no one will average 17+ points a game. Things are gonna get REAL interesting up in the thin air region.
Season Projections: .490/.790/1 3pt/15.5 pts/3.5 rbd/7 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
47. Andrew Bynum – Let’s ask J.J. Hickson and LeBron James how much new Laker coach Mike Brown helps develops the youngsters.
Season Projections: .550/.700/0 3pt/13.5 pts/8.5 rbd/2 ast/0.5 stl/2.5 blk/2.5 tov
48. Dorell Wright – I been thinkin’ about my Dorell / When you gonna pick it!?! / When you gonna pick it!?! (My apologies to Jack White.)
Season Projections: .420/.780/2 3pt/15.5 pts/5.5 rbd/3 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov
49. Carlos Boozer – Ugh. I just have no idea about Boozer this season. He could be a top 30 guy, or he could totally flop. Sticking him at 49 seemed like just enough of an anonymous spot so that no one would remember if I really mess this one up.
Season Projections: .515/.718/0 3pt/18 pts/9 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
50.Brandon Jennings – This is the highest I’ve ever ranked Jennings. It feels kooky. But imagine Maggette gone, and Stephen Jackson in his place. Now imagine Beno Udrih motivating Jennings not to mess up and lose his job. Now imagine a healthy Bogut. Okay, now picture a winged horse. Now picture Jennings on that horse eating a taco. I know, right!
Season Projections: .422/.795/1.5 3pt/15 pts/4 rbd/6.5 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
51. Roy Hibbert – Much was made last offseason about his weightloss, but dude looked soft. Not doughy-soft; he looked weak-soft. Dr. Hibbert made minor increases to his stats, but there’s still trouble in Circle City. That starts with T and rhymes with P and that stands for per36. As in, they should get better this season and if they don’t, I’m done with him.
Season Projections: .465/.770/0 3pt/12 pts/8 rbd/3.5 ast/0.5 stl/2 blk/2.5 tov
52. Devin Harris – Hate it or love it, his game don’t stop. Envy him.
Season Projections: .456/.824/1 3pt/17 pts/3 rbd/6.5 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/3 tov
53. Luol Deng – Improved scoring, almost 40 minutes a game, almost in the 1 stl+1 blk+1 3pt club, and yet … meh.
Season Projections: .455/.770/1 3pt/16.5 pts/6 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov
54. JaVale McGee – “He finally gets it.” – teammate Andray Blatche on December 12. I guess I don’t need to add anything here. Blatche has spoken!
Season Projections: .519/.605/0 3pt/12 pts/8 rbd/1 ast/1 stl/3 blk/2 tov
55. Andrew Bogut – I haven’t been this excited about an Aussie bendin’ the ol’ elbow since I went on that three-day drinking bender with Olivia Newton-John! My god that woman can toss down shots of rye.
Season Projections: .530/.561/0 3pt/13 pts/10.5 rbd/2 ast/0.5 stl/2.5 blk/2 tov
56. Serge Ibaka – Sometimes, when I’m feeling way too confident and satisfied with my basketball bloggin’, I just flip back to last year’s top 200 list and let the reminder that I ranked Ibaka 199th wash right over me.
Season Projections: .530/.740/0 3pt/12 pts/9 rbd/0.5 ast/0.5 stl/3.5 blk/1 tov
57. Andrea Bargnani – I honestly can’t see ever owning Bargnani with the six players surrounding this guy on either side. I just know I won’t opt to pick him unless all the others were taken first. So why not knock him down a few more slots? Because I don’t want you to accuse me of defaming the Italians.
Season Projections: .465/.825/1.5 3pt/20 pts/5.5 rbd/2 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/2 tov
58. Lamar Odom – And to think, Derrick Caracter is going to miss the first month of the season for L.A.. Boy, the Lakers must really be kicking themselves NOW!
Season Projections: .500/.660/1 3pt/15.5 pts/9 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov
59. Luis Scola – My biggest problem is his blocks. If you have someone like Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans or any other guard that rates well above-average in blocks, Scola would make a good pairing with them.
Season Projections: .522/.730/0 3pt/18 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
60. Greg Monroe – Is a sleeper still a sleeper if everyone and their hairdresser has him ranked in the top 60?
Season Projections: .555/.701/0 3pt/13 pts/9 rbd/2.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
61. Marc Gasol – GAS HOLE! (Come hell or highwater pants, this guy’s getting a new nickname.)
Season Projections: .514/.721/0 3pt/12.5 pts/7.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2.5 tov
62. Darren Collison – Remember how jazzed you all were a year ago about how huge DarCo was going to become? Then how disappointed you were in his second season? Great. Now go compare Mike Conley and D.J. Augustin’s third seasons to their second ones and get excited about Collison all over again.
Season Projections: .470/.875/0.5 3pt/15.5 pts/3.5 rbd/7.5 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
63. James Harden – Whether he starts or not, he’ll be sneaky-hot this season, like Carey Mulligan.
Season Prediction: .440/.800/1.5 3ptm/15 pts/4 rbd/3 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
64. D.J. Augustin – Let’s just hope D.J.’s desire to improve trumps his frustration from having to do it in Charlotte.
Season Projections: .435/.910/1.5 3pt/16 pts/3 rbd/7 ast/0.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
65. Raymond Felton – Wanna see into Felton’s future? Look at Andre Miller’s recent past.
Season Projections: .440/.800/1 3pt/13 pts/3.5 rbd/6.5 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/3 tov
66. Kyle Lowry – I won’t own Kyle in any leagues this year because a lot of fantasy owners confuse surprise production last year with huge upside this year. You watch.
Season Projections: .435/.805/1 3pt/14.5 pts/4 rbd/6.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov
67. DeMar DeRozan – Biggest PPG leap from 2009 to 2010, but he shot a fair FG% in over 34 mpg. Realistically, he won’t improve much past that.
Season Projections: .475/.819/0 3pt/20 pts/3.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov
68. Michael Beasley – The Wolves, like Sofia Vergara, are just too stacked in the frontcourt not to get in its own way. Beasley was certainly the second option on offense last season, as I believe he will be this season, but there weren’t too many viable options last season. This season? I mean, hello! J.J. Barea!
Season Projection: .461/.775/0.5 3pt/17.5 pts/5.5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov
69. Marcin Gortat – As I said earlier in this post, my delete button is glued and broken. That’s a shame because I can honestly see this guy producing top 40 numbers by season’s end. I’m cool with him here, but he’s also the player (aside from Boozer) I’m least confident about having ranked properly.
Season Projections: .545/.700/0 3pt/16 pts/11 rbd/1 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/1.5 tov
70. Mike Conley – Conley’s become somewhat forgotten amid the hubbub of other guards. That’s a mistake. Fair warning. Unfair warning: yelling “Fore!” a second after your ball dents the roof of a nearby group’s golf cart.
Season Projections: .454/.750/1 3pt/14.5 pts/3.5 rbd/6.5 ast/2 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
71. J.J. Hickson – Hickson’s SICK, son™. Go ahead and put in a 5,000 t-shirt order on that one.
Season Projections: .490/.719/0 3pt/17 pts/9.5 rbd/1.5 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov
72. Marcus Thornton – Averaged 36 mpg/16/3/3 in the final seven games of the season. It’s a small sample size, but like all small things, I’m making do with it as best I can. I worry about Sacramento’s desire to make Jimmer Fredette a starter, however.
Season Projections: .440/.795/2 3pt/18 pts/5 rbd/2 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
73. Jason Kidd – Kidd is just slowly dwindling. His minutes, his scoring, his efficiency. He’s 38, he’ll be 39 in March; this is to be expected. His assists are the slowest to dropoff. Watching him last year, it was clear he’s playing only to facilitate the other four players on the court. Nothing else. In the fantasy world, that’s about as useful as having grapes for nipples.
Season Projections: .400/.849/1.5 3pt/8 pts/4 rbd/7.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov
74. Stephen Jackson – I dare you to listen to Staggolee by Pacific Gas & Electric while Stack Jack is on the floor and tell me it doesn’t pop into your head every time you watch him from now on.
Season Projections: .440/.805/1 3ptm/17.5 pts/4 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov
75. Omri Casspi – Oh, here’s where I left my single Cavs representative from this top 100 list. I wondered where he went.
Season Projections: .445/.700/1.5 3pt/14 pts/6 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
76. Ray Allen – Rajon Rondo’s per36 assist number drop from 11.4 to 8.0 when Ray Allen was not in the game. So there you are. STATS!
Season Projections: .485/.900/2 3pt/15 pts/3.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov
77. Wesley Matthews – He’s Jason Terry with better percentages and no peanut head.
Season Projections: .470/.890/2 3pt/15.5 pts/3 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov
78. Jason Terry – He’s Wesley Matthews, if WesMatt was jet-propelled by the glory of God. (I’m ranking Matthews first because God is cool and all, but I’m really allergic to peanuts, y’all.)
Season Projections: .455/.870/2 3pt/15.5 pts/2 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov
79. Jared Dudley - I’m not even sure how deep of a sleeper he’ll be come draft day. He went widely unnoticed in most leagues in the final 20 games of the season. It’s hard to tell if that will carry over to this one. He averaged 26 mpg, 11/4/1, with 2.4 stl+3ptm last season, which is okay. Upon closer inspection, Dudley Do-Right did pretty damn right in his 15 games as a starter, averaging 34 mpg, 16/6/2, with 3.2 stl+3ptm. With Vince Carter gone and Mickael Pietrus generally underwhelming, this looks to be the uproarious, and drunken shenanigan-filled year of Dudley’s more! Season Projections: .475/.765/1.5 3pt/14 pts/4 rbd/2 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/1 tov
80. Kevin Garnett – KG could very well exceed his output last season. It wouldn’t shock me (that’s what forks and wall sockets are for!). It also wouldn’t shock me if things went bleak for any of the older players who have had a significantly longer vacation than they are used to having.
Season Projections: .500/.850/0 3pt/14.5 pts/7.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov
81. Jason Richardson – Wait, the Magic re-signed him!? Why? For HOW much!?! WHY!?!
Season Projections: .445/.750/2 3pt/13.5 pts/3 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov
82. DeMarcus Cousins – He’s still gonna foul a lot this year, mostly because he defends outside shooters with the quickness of someone running on ice wearing high heels. That liability on D stands to affect his O.
Season Projections: .430/.670/0 3pt/17.5 pts/10.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1 blk/3.5 tov
83. Danilo Gallinari – The good news is that The Rooster will have every chance to be this team’s scoring leader and I expect him to make good (sort of). The bad news is that there’s no other news.
Season Projections: .425/.885/2 3pt/16.5 pts/6 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
84. Tim Duncan - The projections below are Duncan’s floor. So there’s that. I also think we’re absolutely going to see his floor this season. So there’s that also.
Season Projections: .485/.720/0 3pt/13 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov
85. Nicolas Batum – Didn’t take a huge leap forward, in fact, he went backward. I expect his output to match his minutes a little more this season. Assuming he gets minutes, which is not an assumption I would make about most of the Trailblazers’ lineup.
Season Projections: .470/.830/1.5 3pt/14 pts/5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov
86. Elton Brand – He could be as good as any PF in the league this season, but would you bet on it?
Season Projections: .510/.740/0 3pt/15.5 pts/8 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/1.5 tov
87. Toney Douglas – He’s the Bizarro Derek Fisher: he’s the exact opposite of a Western Conference thinker whose body limits his physical ability. Douglas is an East coast Charlie Hustle who makes a ton of bonehead errors per 36 (BHEP36™).
Season Projections: .430/.780/2 3pt/15 pts/4.5 rbd/5.5 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2 tov
88. Channing Frye - You could go with Blatche. Blatche is the Frye you get if you’re too cool for three-point field-goals. But if you follow Razzball, you’re probably not too cool for anything. So Frye is the Blatche you get if Blatche is still available and you’d rather not draft Blatche. Frye averaged almost six three-point attempts per game and sank 39 percent of them. The season before, he shot 44 percent from the arc on one fewer attempt. Look for a teensy regression on both attempts and percentage. Look for it, but not forward to it.
Season Projections: .450/.825/2 3pt/13.5 pts/7 rbd/1.5 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/1 tov
89. Andray Blatche – All reports suggest that Blatche is an unpleasant guy to be around. Makes sense, he’ll be 25 this season. Name a 25-year-old who is pleasant to be around. No, I’d prefer to focus on his upside. He averaged 17/8/2 with more than two stl+blk per game. No one’s grabbing him until at least the eighth round. Production anywhere near that is something on which you’ll take and ask for free refills.
Season Projections: .460/.750/0 3pt/15 pts/7 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1 blk/1 tov
90. Corey Maggette – “The Bobcats intend to make Maggette the central focus of its offense this season.” *shudder*
Season Projections: .455/.830/0 3pt/18 pts/6 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
91. Tyson Chandler – Here’s to hoping a bloated contract translates to bloated statistics. *clink* (It won’t.)
Season Projections: .610/.715/0 3pt/9.5 pts/9.5 rbd/0.5 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov
92. Kris Humphries – Drop him two rounds if he’s trying to rebound next to Dwight instead of Brook.
Season Projections: .505/.690/0 3pt/9.5 pts/9.5 rbd/1 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/1 tov
93. Chauncey Billups – (NOTE: This projection assumes Billups will be playing backup to Chis Paul for the Clippers. If that holds true throughout the entire season, I’d be surprised.) At what point do we get a reality show that follows Billups around while he bitches about spending the twilight of his career effected by younger, better players demanding trades to New York? Call it “Changes for Chauncey.”
Season Projections: .429/.925/1 3pt/12 pts/2.5 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
94. George Hill – He was slightly overrated last year, then he pooped the bed. Now that he’s underrated, you’ve got to swoop in. Poop = swoop.
Season Projections: .455/.870/1 3pt/13 pts/3 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov
95. Thaddeus Young – Every year that he’s a sixth man, I’m going to assume he’ll be “this year’s Sixth Man.”
Season Projections: .505/.730/0.5 3pt/14.5 pts/5.5 rbd/1.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov
96. Jordan Crawford – The are four Wizards in the top 100. RUN ON WIZARDS! (not overheard at a Magic: the Gathering gathering … for once!)
Season Projections: .440/.800/1 3pt/15 pts/3 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov
97. Gerald Henderson – Averaged 35 minutes and a 16/5/4 line in the last eight games of the season. Without Gerald Wallace in the lineup, he averaged 13/4/2. Playing time alone should make this range a solid bet for the 24-year-old.
Season Projections: .445/.760/0 3pt/14 pts/5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov
98.C.J. Miles – He’s a SF who played SG about 40 percent of the time last year. I expect the reverse to be true in 2011 and for Utah to go with a big lineup a lot more. It’s really his only hope for a breakthrough season.
Season Projections: .420/.785/1.5 3pt/13.5 pts/3 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov
99.Hedo Turkoglu – I’m 71.7 percent positive whatever I say here will be null and void come Christmas Day. So consider this the thing I said. I dare you to argue that I didn’t say this or that I was wrong for having said it. #treated.
Season Projections: .440/.700/1.5 3pt/12 pts/4 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
100. Boris Diaw – Third Frenchman! I’ve clearly made multiple mistakes on this list. Ah well. No turnin’ back now …
Season Projections: .485/. 710/1 3pt/11.5 pts/6 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov
With the top 20, top 10, top PG, top SG, top SF and top 20 PF for 2011 fantasy basketball in the can, it’s time to go out with a blowout and look at the top 20 centers for 2011. On Monday I warned you that some of these blokes can be considered power forwards. Go ahead and consider them. They love that. Anyway, as has been the pattern so far, these rankings are a hybrid of both 9-cat roto and H2H leagues.
Here are the top 20 centers for 2011 fantasy basketball:
3. Al Jefferson – RUN ON ALs! It’s going to be a while before we see Harrington. You really couldn’t ask much more from Jefferson than what he gave you last season. I suppose you could have asked for a few more points each game. Maybe an iPad2. That would have been nice of him. I fear his numbers will dip this season out of sheer volume of Utah big men chewing up minutes. Call me crazy, but I also fear that your iPad2 is not forthcoming. Still, Jefferson remains the biggest talent on this team and I’m not betting that guys like Mehmet Okur are going to hobble him too much. Season Projections: .495/.710/0 3pt/19.5 pts/10 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov
4. Brook Lopez – If Present Day Adam told the 2011 Adam that a girlie-named Net with a twin brother in Phoenix would be among this season’s best centers, I bet 2011 Adam would have been horrified – mostly because seeing a slightly older version of oneself would make anyone go nutzoid. I’m sure I would have had so many questions. Like, do I get married in the next three years? If so, is my future wife pretty? Does she nag me a lot? Am I still the type of person that needs to be nagged all the time? And if so, why haven’t I gotten my shizz together and started becoming more of a man? What am I doing monkeying around with the space-time continuum, warning future versions of me about who will be good and bad in future seasons? Doesn’t that seem like an incredible waste of resources? And couldn’t I have at least taken out the trash on my way to the time machine? Don’t I realize what my future wife does for me day-after-day? And also, what the hell are the Nets still doing in New Jersey? Season Projections: .505/.800/0 3pt/22.5 pts/7 rbd/2 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/2.5 tov
5. Nene Hilario – Whether it be Denver, Jersey, or someplace else, Nene will be fine. He’s a reach in the third round, safe in the fourth, a great value in the fifth and part of a three-team fantasy league if he makes it into any round after that. He is what he is. Ol’ reliable. Sturdy. Don’t knock sturdy, you’re likely to hurt your knuckles. … Because of the sturdiness, you see. Season Projections: .590/.715/0 3pt/15 pts/8 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov
6. Joakim Noah – Last preseason I anticipated a huge leap in production from Joakim and, technically, that’s what I got. Um, Adam? That’s not what I got. Why did I get that and you didn’t? That’s weird. Are you using that thing correctly? His DRtg tightened up from a solid 101 to a white hot 97. He’s completely locking fools down defensively. He also jumped from 11 points per game to 12, improved his FG% and doubled his per game steals. Yeah, but he missed 34 games last year, after missing 18 games the year before. I hear you, Mr. Italics. Mostly because seeing you would mean that I was hallucinating. Injuries are unpredictable, but it seems pretty clear that when he’s healthy, Noah is a huge asset. Season Projections: .519/.711/0 3pt/13 pts/12.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2.5 tov
7. Andrew Bynum – Pop quiz, hot shot: What is the significance of the numbers 46, 35, 50, 65 and 54? No, it’s not the combination to the lock on my diary (you wish), it’s Bynum’s game totals for five of his six seasons in the league. He’s only 24 so time is still on his side, but one has to worry about the development of someone so consistently injured. Actually, not just one, many. Many should worry about his development. Season Projections: .550/.700/0 3pt/13.5 pts/8.5 rbd/2 ast/0.5 stl/2.5 blk/2.5 tov
8. Roy Hibbert – If he can stay away from stupid baby hooks, work the inside/outside game with David West, and go hard to the mothereffin’ paint every once in a while, Dr. Hibbert might have himself a season. If not. He’ll have himself last season. Season Projections: .465/.770/0 3pt/12 pts/8 rbd/3.5 ast/0.5 stl/2 blk/2.5 tov
9. JaVale McGee – McGee strikes me as someone who would be well-paired with a straight scorer like Eric Gordon or Kevin Martin in fantasy leagues. I wouldn’t scoff at such a pairing. I also wouldn’t scoff because I have no idea how to do that. Season Projections: .519/.605/0 3pt/12 pts/8 rbd/1 ast/1 stl/3 blk/2 tov
10. Andrew Bogut – WOW! Bogut shot a whopping .442 … and that was WITH an injured elbow! /Adam raises arms in victory, hears a crackling in his headset, is told that the .442 figure was Bogut’s free-throw percentage – not his field goal percentage, immediately drops his arms, thinks of how to spin this in the Aussie’s favor, cartoonishly snaps his finger as the solution comes to him, proceeds to type the upcoming message:\ If Bogut had manged to shoot an un-noteworthy .650 percent on his 217 free throws this season, he would have made an additional 45 freebies and still only averaged 13.5 points per game because of it. What I’m trying to say is, his awful free throw shooting isn’t all that awful when you only get to the line thrice a game. He’s healthier now, he’ll shoot better, while still rebounding and blocking at a huge clip. Season Projections: .530/.561/0 3pt/13 pts/10.5 rbd/2 ast/0.5 stl/2.5 blk/2 tov
11. Andrea Bargnani – Here’s you choice, we can talk about Bargs’ four ppg leap between 2009 and 2010 and prance and sing and carry on, or we can talk about how a 7-foot-tall man somehow grabbed one FEWER rebound in 2010 than the 6.2 he pulled down the season before. Or how he blocked half the shots last year that he did in ’09. Or3: Or Harder, we can try to blame his lack of big man stats on Reggie Evans or Ed Davis or Amir Johnson, even though no such loss of scoring happened in the face of DeMar DeRozan’s development. Your final choice is talking about my babysitter, whose name was also Andrea. She was into David Bowie and Boy George. No matter what you choose it, it all ends the same way: me being confused beyond words. Season Projections: .465/.825/1.5 3pt/20 pts/5.5 rbd/2 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/2 tov
12. Marc Gasol – When I first outlined this list, I wrote down the following note for Marc Gasol: “mention his ‘gas hole.’” No clue where I was going with that, but we’re gonna let it stew in the pot. Season Projections: .514/.721/0 3pt/12.5 pts/7.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov
13. Marcin Gortat – Ooooo … so that’s why the Polish Hammer was all pissy about being Dwight’s backup. Okay, yeah. Cool I get it. Season Projections: .545/.700/0 3pt/16 pts/11 rbd/1 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/1.5 tov
14. J.J. Hickson – Two things, right off: a) I’m super excited for J.J. Hickson’s 2011-12 season, b) I’m a little nervous about that excitement. The talent is there. We’ve seen it in pockets of two different seasons, including the 17 ppg/11 rpg 25-game stretch he went on to end last season. Pulling that out of your hat a couple games throughout a season is a fluke, averaging that over two-and-a-half months is progress. I’m not saying this is as big of a blow to Ohioans (Ohioates? Ohiomans? Ohiomies?) as the King’s exodus, I’m saying it’s below it, but not as far below it as his ADP (ninth round average) suggests it is. Season Projections: .490/.719/0 3pt/17 pts/9.5 rbd/1.5 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov
15. Tim Duncan - We need to come up with a glossary term for an aging player who buys himself a couple extra seasons by getting smarter and boosting his efficiency to make up for a failing body. My early vote is to call this phenomenon “Shamwane,” “FeebleWobble,” or maybe “Ripen Van Winkle.” Season Projections: .485/.720/0 3pt/13 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov
16. Tyson Chandler – I haven’t forgotten that he’s missed at least 10 games in half of his 10-year career, nor have I forgotten about his occasional lapses in both scoring and rebounding, nor the fact that he’s coming off a career year. The free agency market may have forgotten, but I haven’t. Superior low-post defense doesn’t play here, Chandy. Season Projections: .610/.715/0 3pt/9.5 pts/9.5 rbd/0.5 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov
17. Boris Diaw – Hey look! A Bobcat! Neato. He only played 7 percent of his season at the five-spot last year, but it appears he’ll be forced to play a lot more this season with Biyombo getting time at power forward. Of every guy on this list, Diaw is the only big man to finish in the top five in threes, assists and steals. Among qualifying centers, he sank the second-most threes and doled out the most assists. Generally, he had one of the best seasons of his career, and never got any fanfare for it. I blame his lack of popularity on being stuck in Charlotte … the city, not some girl. I felt I had to clarify. He is French, after all. Anyway, there’s pretty solid value here. Season Projections: .485/. 710/1 3pt/11.5 pts/6 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov
18. Emeka Okafor – Big ‘Mek never delivered on that special sauce he had his rookie year when he averaged 15 / 11. He’s offered only declining returns ever since. Can’t blame injuries – he’s only missed 10 games in four seasons. Can’t blame an overly-talented roster – Chris Paul only makes other players better and David West didn’t bang down low if he didn’t have to. Can’t blame the coaches – he’s had three to choose from in as many seasons. they all coaxed out the same results: yawns. Season Projections: .550/.555/0 3pt/12 pts/10 rbd/0.5 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov
19. DeAndre Jordan – Jordan was supposed to be a Warrior, Kaman was supposed to be a Hornet, I was supposed to be born three years later than I was, according to my parents’ pre-marital plans and all any of this proves is that you can’t always get what you want. You get what you need. And when you see the centers awaiting you after Jordan, you’ll realize you need to jump on a second center before it’s too late. Season Projections: .585/.465/0 3pt/8.5 pts/10 rbd/0.5 ast/0.5 stl/2.5 blk/2 tov
20. Anderson Varejao – Remember Joakim Noah from, like, 13 spots (or about 17 inches) ago? Yeah, this is the Noah you get if you missed him and want a supremely discounted version. Varejao doesn’t do much better than JoaNoah, but he does do a lot of the same things very similarly. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned the goofy hair connection. I mean, I guess I just mentioned it. But before I mentioned it, I hadn’t mentioned it. Season Projections: .530/.665/0 3pt/9.5 pts/10 rbd/1 ast/1 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov
With the top 20, top 10, top PG, top SG and top SF for 2011 fantasy basketball in the can, it’s time to gander at the top 20 power forwards for 2011. Right off, you’re bound to notice that half the guys on this list can be considered centers. Well, yeah, ’cause a lot of these guys will play center. With the rosters of all 30 teams still shifting, It shouldn’t matter in most leagues, but for the rare league that doesn’t toss around position eligibility like mailer coupons to Bed, Bath & Beyond, this is the position these players played the majority of their minutes last season. And before you yell at me Wednesday because half the centers on that list played power forward, first take a step back and ask yourself why you’ve been yelling so much lately. If Marilyn Manson still makes music, I’ll go ahead and blame him for your anger. Anyway, as has been the pattern so far, these rankings are a hybrid of both 9-cat roto and H2H leagues.
Here are the top 20 power forwards for 2011 fantasy basketball:
6. LaMarcus Aldridge – He basically heaped his team on his back and carried it like Chewbacca did with C3PO’s bag of body bits; and considering we’re talking about the Blazers, here, there were plenty of faulty body parts to go around. They’ll be fewer distractions and without Roy, this is LMA’s team. You can count on him. Just like LMA said, he’s steady and he knows it.
Season Projections: .495/.775/0 3pt/21 pts/8.5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov
7. David Lee – Lee was injured throughout the bulk of last season. For a while he wasn’t playing. Then he was playing hurt. The he was playing hurt and frustrated. These are things I can hold against 2010 Lee, but not 2011 Lee. Don’t forget how monster he was before last season. (If monster is an adjective, DavidLee is an adverb. Deal!) Also, don’t forget that Lee had a really off season last year and still finished with a 17/10/3 line with solid percentages for a big.
Season Projections: .529/.784/0 3pt/19 pts/11.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
8. Josh Smith – I love Smoove’s multi-faceted game. On any given night, he can give owners a little of everything. This is why he’s attractive to fantasy owners. Aside from free throw shooting, he doesn’t do many things sub-par. The problem – especially for owners in H2H leagues, is that he disappears for a game or two, turns it on, then disappears again without much rhyme or reason. I can put up with that from my fourth or fifth round pick, but nothing sooner. No one ever lost a fantasy league because they chose sturdy, reliable picks in the first three rounds of his draft.
Season Projections: .488/.699/0.5 3pt/16.5 pts/8 rbd/3.5 ast/1.5 stl/1.5 blk/2.5 tov
9. Zach Randolph – Not a sexy pick. I’m not talking about his fantasy output, I’m talking about Z-Bo, himself. Not a sexy pick, ladies. You want 20/10, with percentages appropriate for a power forward? Randolph. Easy. He’s your backburner date when no one else is available. Smoove is taken, Aldridge is gone, Lee was snatched up and you’re dangerously close to missing out on a a reliable 20/10 source at the four. Call Randolph. He’s not doing anything, but sitting at home watching “Gilmore Girls” reruns, while sucking down a tube of sugar cookie dough.
Season Projections: .485/.770/0 3pt/20 pts/11.5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
10. Chris Bosh - Don’t get it twisted, sister, Bosh still has it in him to be one of the five best power forwards in this league, there just need to be a few tweaks from last year; just as the Heat have it in them to win a championship. One year, does not a career make. The heat (small “H”) will die down around Miami a little (only a little), the jokes about Bosh being an, ahem, “bitsh” won’t seem as funny and can’t you just see March rolling around and Bosh is quietly averaging somewhere around 20/10 and everyone suddently kicks themselves for forgetting how good Bosh is capable of being. Don’t be one of those guys kicking themselves because they assumed David West was going to blow up huge for the Pacers or something and skipped right over Bosh.
Season Projections: .505/.812/0 3pt/19.5 pts/8 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
11. Paul Millsap – In five seasons, PM hasn’t missed more than five games. Millsap just keeps doin’ it and doin’ it and doin’ it right. IF there’s something negative to be said about last season, it’s that he improved across the board in just about every stat category, which makes my job much, much harder. IF there’s something positive to be said, it’s just about everything else about dude’s developing game. Sky’s the limit for Millsap. The fact that the Jazz are healthy and there are several other able-bodied fours on the Jazz bench make me rank him below Bosh and Randolph. (Dang, I should have put that last point up in the negative point about last season. Missed opportunity! Also, since I just came up with something negative and positive to say, I don’t know why we’re using the word “if.”)
Season Projections: .522/.733/0 3pt/18 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov
12. David West – The fourth-most discussed free-agent. The third-best power forward whose name starts with “D.” The second-best power forward whose first name is David. Probably the first option on the Pacers’ offense. West might not be the best, but he’s stuff teams are made of.
Season Projections: .471/.829/0 3pt/18 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
13. Carlos Boozer – I can see Charlie Lush rising or falling a couple spots depending on his attitude. I can also see him rising or falling many spots depending on his statistical output, but I figured that was too obvious to state here. Anyway, if he’s engaged in what the team is doing, he’ll be an integral part of the team’s offense. If he boneheads his way through games, the Bulls will work around him the same way they did in last year’s playoffs; a playoff, by the way, in which he averaged 12.5/9.5/2.
Season Projections: .515/.718/0 3pt/18 pts/9 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov
14. Serge Ibaka – Back in March, I had this to say about Ibaka: “A full year of Ibaka at PF next season is going to be huge. After just seven games this month, Ibaka has more blocks (25) than in either of the last two. Also, his 9.7/9.4, with 3.1 blocks in 29.7 mpg since Jeff Green was traded to Boston are all above his season averages. I wouldn’t expect much else defensively from Ibaka next year, as he’ll lose a few boards and blocks to Kendrick Perkins, but having two sturdy bigs roaming around the rim instead of the weak Nenad Krstic or the roaming Nick Collison, will improve Ibaka’s scoring a bit and may prove him to be a Camby-like fantasy necessity next year.” So there it is and there it goes.
Season Projections: .530/.740/0 3pt/12 pts/9 rbd/0.5 ast/0.5 stl/3.5 blk/1 tov
15. Lamar Odom – If my old lady was drafting a fantasy basketball team, Odom would be on it. If for no other reason, than because she empathizes with what Khloe has to deal with, having to move halfway across the country from California to Texas. Which is appropriate, as I can empathize with Odom, having to listen to unsolicited opinions from someone who makes way more money than I do. Assuming the Mavs move Dirk to center and start Lamardashian, his fantasy value rises a bit, as proven by Odom’s original ranking at no. 17 prior to the trade. My worry is that, on a team that lives by the jumpshot, Odom will become sloppier with the Mavs than he was with the Lakers.
Season Projections: .500/.660/1 3pt/15.5 pts/9 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov
16. Luis Scola – This is a conservative ranking of Scola, who was close to sharing the frontcourt with the second-ranked guy on this list. Still, Scola has quite quietly improved his game these last few seasons. He’s a rock. He’s finally found himself after what I imagine was a series of summers backpack through Europe, or dropping acid at Burning Man or attending some Hot Yoga classes or whatever people do to find themselves. If you can land him as your second PF, you’re in great shape.
Season Projections: .522/.730/0 3pt/18 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
17. Greg Monroe – I already went over Greg Monroe in this fantasy keepers for 2011 fantasy basketball post. Read it, or imagine reading it and yell at me for all the stupid things you imagined I said.
Season Projections: .555/.701/0 3pt/13 pts/9 rbd/2.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov
18. Kevin Garnett – It’s KG. Ain’t nothing new to say about him other than he hasn’t missed any fewer than 10 games as a Celtic. Humor me as I talk real hoops for a second. I’m actually expecting big things out of the big three (and Rondo) this season. The clock is ticking, Rondo has been involved in several trade rumors, the shortened season won’t leave this old team short of breath and before you give me all the reasons why it doesn’t make sense for them to win the championship, allow me to remind you who won last year’s title.
Season Projections: .500/.850/0 3pt/14.5 pts/7.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov
19. DeMarcus Cousins – J.J. Hickson’s gonna hurt Cousins’ offensive output. The most you can do is hope Cousins is okay with it, because if he’s not, fantasy owners and every hotel employee he irrationally punches in the face, will know all about it.
Season Projections: .430/.670/0 3pt/17.5 pts/10.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1 blk/3.5 tov
20. Elton Brand – The old man hung in there for 81 games, provided fourth round value at a 10th round price and proved that at 31, he’s not quite done. I feared he was done. Now I just fear he missed out on the sweet spot of his career with his knee issues. Still, we may be seeing a rejuvenated Brand for a season or three. La Dolce Correre! A few more romps through the fountain and Brand may stall looking like a late-era Anita Ekberg for a few more seasons yet.
Season Projections: .565/.737/0 3pt/16 pts/9 rbd/1.5 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov
