Fantasy Basketball Advice

It’s not always easy to keep perspective. Like when the 410 lb. orca whale purchasing $30-worth of Burger King for himself double-checks with the cashier that the soda he was served is Diet. But we here at Razzball know how difficult maintaining perspective can be, especially when you’re drunk and trying to sketch moving objects. So from now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2010 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each NBA team in hopes of painting a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting over whom? Who might surprise you and who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The Boston Celtics.

Gained – Delonte West, Luke Harangody, Semih Erden, a pair of Irish O’Neals

Lost – Scalabrine! ‘Sheed! Tony Allen! (Okay, that last one didn’t really warrant a yell)

Probable position depth -
PG – Rajon Rondo, Delonte West, Von Wafer
SG – Ray Allen, Nate Robinson, Avery Bradley
SF – Paul Pierce, Marquis Daniels
PF – Kevin Garnett, Glen Davis, Luke Harangody
C – Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal, Kendrick Perkins, Semih Erden

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season -

1. Seriously guys, four centers?
My old college roommate (my roommate was actually college-age, it just happened a few years back) had depression issues for which his doctor prescribed him two pills. But those pills had side effects that required another pill to alleviate. But that alleviation pill made him dizzy, so – boom – two more pills. In the end, he took a cocktail of about nine pills and I’m pretty sure he just had mild autism all along. The pills just confused the issue. What does that have to do with the center position of the Boston Celtics? Don’t make me spell it out.

2. Kevin Garnett: Comeback Player of the Year?
Nah. But I think he improves a tick above last season’s averages. He earned 9/4/2/1/1 in 18 mpg this preseason. That averages out to 15/7/3 and 3 stls+blks per game if he can last just 30 minutes a contest, which he did last season and should be able to this season as all signs point to him being far healthier now than at any point in 2009. He’s being drafted between rounds 6-9. You’ll take 15/7/3 in those rounds and not only say “yes,” but “yes, please!”

3. What’s left in Ray’s tank?
Oh, I’d say there’s about a quarter Allen left … You see what I did there? Allen sounds like gallon. Gallon. Tank. … Nothing? Fine. Last season marked the death rattle of Allen’s career (15.2 PER, lowest since his rookie season; 20.2 USG%, the lowest of his career). You can have him at the 65th pick and I’d be shocked to find him getting taken in the top 100 in 2011. But hey, it’s been fun, Jesus.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’10 – Ray Allen. Yahoo! lists his ADP at 61. ESPN lists him at 66. And if you believe he should be drafted anywhere near that, I’d like to offer you some Florida swampland that’s about to skyrocket in value.

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’10 – Rajon Rondo. Last year’s meme was that the Celtics were no longer the Big 3′s squad. Some memes last a long time. Don’t look back, Boston. A new day is breakin.’ It took too long just to realize.

Deep Sleeper -  Marquis Daniels. Remember in ’08 when Daniels averaged 14/5/2 with Indy? No, of course not. Why would you? Well, he did. And he’s just one Paul Pierce injury away from having a chance to do it again. Jrue story.

It’s not always easy to keep perspective. Like when the 410 lb. orca whale purchasing $30-worth of Burger King for himself double-checks with the cashier that the soda he was served is Diet. But we here at Razzball know how difficult maintaining perspective can be, especially when you’re drunk and trying to sketch moving objects. So from now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2010 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each NBA team in hopes of painting a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting over whom? Who might surprise you and who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The Dallas Mavericks.

Gained – Tyson Chandler

Lost – Erick Dampier, Matt Carroll, Eduardo Najera

Probable position depth -
PG – Jason Kidd, J.J. Barea
SG – Caron Butler, Jason Terry, Rodrigue Beaubois, Dominique Jones
SF – Shawn Marion, Brian Cardinal, DeShawn Stevenson
PF – Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Novak, Ian Mahinmi
C – Brendan Haywood, Tyson Chandler, Alexis Ajinca

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season -

1. Why do the Mavericks have five point guards?
Little known fact: Mark Cuban prefers players that are closer to his height. Either that or most of these point guards will play heavy minutes at shooting guard as well. There were peeps that Kidd would be giving up minutes to Beaubois at the point this season, but those peeps were nuked in a microwave for our amusement when Rod Goodwood went down with a foot injury. Evidence ever since points to him coming off the bench and playing SG and perhaps eventually starting before the end of this season. Like my freshman lab partner with tissues sticking out of her training bra, there’s going to be lots of shifting in the frontcourt this year.

2. What happens first, Beaubois breaks out or I learn to correctly pronounce his name?
Wait, does he have a middle name? Because that will change the answer to this question. Assuming it takes me a month for the first name and a month for the last, I think it will be a tie. I’m expecting Beaubois to be playing 27+ minutes per game by Christmas. NOTE: All that is required for a Beaubois Breakout (the name of my first klezmer band) is enough minutes to perform.

3. Tyson Chandler: Team USA member with least fantasy value this year or Team USA member with least fantasy value EVER?
Well now, wait. He could provide ample fantasy value if he stays healthy all season (missed 37 games in ’08, 31 games in ’09), and can muster more than 7/6 and a block, and Brendan Haywood misses time and … oh to hell with it. Worst Team USA member ever.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’10 – Jason Kidd. 1) He’s older. 2) His position is getting more crowded. 3) Betcha didn’t think there was a three, did you? Well, there is. Kidd is being drafted in the third round despite 1 and 2. 4) There is no four. Ha! See? The house always wins.

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’10 -  Dirk Nowitzki. 2005 Adam can’t decide if he’s more impressed with Dallas’ current roster or Boston’s current roster.

Deep Sleeper -  J.J. Barea. The word is more or less out on Beaubois, but not on Barea. And because Kidd is more or less a ticking time bomb of a major injury, it’s possible that Barea could zip onto the fantasy radar faster than you can say Darren Collison

It’s not always easy to keep perspective. Like when the 410 lb. orca whale purchasing $30-worth of Burger King for himself double-checks with the cashier that the soda he was served is Diet. But we here at Razzball know how difficult maintaining perspective can be, especially when you’re drunk and trying to sketch moving objects. So from now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2010 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each NBA team in hopes of painting a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting over whom? Who might surprise you and who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The Los Angeles Clippers.

The Clippers will always have a spot in my heart because they will never be good. They used to play in one of my favorite NBA arenas, nick-named the Clip-Joint, and the NBA will need to make some changes if they ever become a contender. They might make a heartfelt run in the playoffs like they did with Sam Cassell and Elton Brand a few years ago (c’mon, how do you not like that duo?), but they will never be a contender.

LAC will continue trying to trade Baron Davis and his three years and nearly $40 million left on his contract, but that wont be easy since Davis is and always will be insubordinate. Only the Clippers would sign Baron Davis to that contract and it will be another season of battling for the 8th spot, even with Blake Griffin’s emergence.

Gained – Randy Foye, Ryan Gomes, Al-Farouq Aminu, Blake Griffin (fo’real this time)

Lost – Drew Gooden, Steve Blake, Ricky Davis, Travis Outlaw, Mardy Collins

Probable Depth Chart -

PG – Baron Davis, Randy Foye, Eric Bledsoe
SG – Eric Gordon
SF – Rasual Butler, Ryan Gomes, Al-Farouq Aminu
PF – Blake Griffin, Craig Smith, Brian Cook
C – Chris Kaman, DeAndre Jordan, Jarron Collins

3 concerns with the Clippers:

1. Wait, the Clippers aren’t going to make the playoffs, right?
Well, they’re the Clippers and they will always figure out a way to screw something up. Last year it was Blake Griffin, and this year we can only hope and pray it isn’t him again. Griffin should be the next great athletic big man in the NBA, but he plays for the most futile team in sports history.

2. How will Baron Davis’ fat get in the way of his performance in 2011?
That question is asked by everyone in the NBA and it won’t end until the Baron of Inglewood finally retires in three years. Even Baron wakes up everyday with a different mindset from the day before. Sometimes it is good, other times it is the opposite. Davis is kinda like the aging Randy Moss of the NBA. Moss is not very good anymore, and neither is Davis, yet they both continue to show up to work with poor attitudes and expect to produce while not trying or making an effort to get better at their ages. Davis has other interests in life, for instance food and movies (Hey! Me too!), and seems bored with the basketball lifestyle. He’s never been considered for Team USA and has only made two All Star teams, the last seven years ago. Lucky for Davis he is not playing for a contract like Moss but he is more than likely in his last contract with three years remaining and nearly $40 million left on it. Boom Dizzle is one of my favorite personalities in any sport, but be very cautious of him for the rest of his fantasy basketball career.

3. So, who is good on this team?
Chris Kaman played in 76 games last season and averaged a robust 18.5 PPG and 9.3 RPG. Some people say his numbers are inflated because he was the only player who tried on the Clips last season, but that’s not true (Mike Gundy voice). Kaman might not be the  greatest player in the world, and I always get queasy when I get told he should be on the All-Star team, but he is a very good fantasy player and an even better NBA player. Kaman’s numbers will see a slight decrease with Blake Griffin playing, but Kaman should still have a very good season at a thin position.

Eric Gordon played for Team USA this off-season and is one of the brightest young stars in the NBA. With Gordon and Blake Griffin, the Clippers have two players that will likely play for Team USA 2016, but neither will likely be a Clipper by 2016. Gordon can shoot and score, but that is about it at this point in his career, and we hope he continues to get better and is not only known as a shooter.

Blake Griffin is gonna be a stud. In fact, he already is. BG is a big time highlight reel and will have a chip on his shoulder throughout the season after missing last year with knee surgery. He and John Wall will be atop the ROY list all season long and look for Griffin to average close to what Chris Kaman did last year.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’10 – Baron Davis. His best years are way behind him and because he always disappoints.

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’10 - Blake Griffin. He’s one of the best young players in the NBA.

Deep Sleeper – DeAndre Jordan. Chris Kaman and Blake Griffin are not known for being healthy and DeAndre Jordan could have a big season if he gets close to 25 MPG. If he saw 32 MPG he would be a double-double force, and he does not get into much foul trouble, and he is still only 22 years old. Once a big time NBA prospect, Jordan slipped to the Clips in the draft, but there has never been a doubt how talented Jordan is. One of these years Jordan will become an NBA regular, and hopefully this is the year.

It’s not always easy to keep perspective. Like when the 410 lb. orca whale purchasing $30-worth of Burger King for himself double-checks with the cashier that the soda he was served is Diet. But we here at Razzball know how difficult maintaining perspective can be, especially when you’re drunk and trying to sketch moving objects. So from now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2010 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each NBA team in hopes of painting a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting over whom? Who might surprise you and who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The New Orleans Hornets.

Gained – Trevor Ariza, Marco Belinelli, Sloth

Lost – Darren Collison, James Posey, NOT Chris Paul!

Probable position depth -
PG – Chris Paul, Janero Pargo, Curtis Jerrells
SG – Marco Belinelli, Marcus Thornton, Willie Green
SF – Trevor Ariza, Peja Stojakovic, Quincy Pondexter
PF – David West, Jason Smith, Pops Mensah-Bonsu
C – Emeka Okafor, D.J. Mbenga, Aaron Gray

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season -

1. Is there a more depressing bench than the one in New Orleans?
No. Not even close. It’s awful. Awful like orange juice and toothpaste. Awful like wet used Band-Aids. Awful like Aaron Gray is on it. And Aaron Gray IS on it. If there is an ownable fantasy sleeper on this team by year’s end (other than the Belinelli/Thornton sandwich they’ve created for themselves) I’ll vow to draft Aaron Gray on every team I have next season. Assuming Aaron Gray will still be a professional basketball player next season. This is not a safe assumption.

2. Why is a guy I’m pretty sure used to drive Formula One cars starting over Marcus Thornton and will it last?
I don’t think so. We know little about Thornton, but we know from last season that he starts slowly. He averaged 12 points in November, 19 points in February and 22 points in April, so it stands to reason that the rut he’s in won’t last long and he’ll be a starter before Christmas. We also know that Marco Belinelli has a similar skill set to Thornton and it could cost fantasy owners two viable commodities instead of one. For now, Marcus Thornton is the only bright spot on this bench and he’s only on the bench because he played so dimly in the preseason. Thornton was set to be the starter, but got outplayed. Ugh. I know we’ve moved on to a different topic, but N’Awlins’ bench is tragic.

3. Is Trevor Ariza’s FG% going to make me want to drink Drano?
Yeah probably. But, for what it’s worth, not as much Drano as last season. Ariza’s shooting from the floor monkey-punched owners’ FG% last season and every outlet discussing Ariza this year suggest owners prepare for it to happen again. This is despite his .539, .507, and .460 FG% in his previous three seasons. He was given too much too soon in Houston and he took a lot of foolish shots. That won’t happen in New Orleans on a team that will use Ariza as a third or fourth option on offense and who will give him a lot more open shots with Chris Paul feeding him the ball instead of Aaron Brooks. My gut says he’ll shoot around .450 from the floor. To be fair my gut is also responsible for the decision to purchase two nacho-flavored tamales from the Kum ‘n’ Go, so take everything with a grain of salt. What’s that?

… I’ve just been told to take everything with Pepto-Bismol until my stomach settles.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’10 – David West. I’m usually a little colder on David West than many others. He doesn’t do it for me. There’s something unsatisfying about a big man who under-blocks, under-rebounds and under-steals but gets drafted on the strength of his excellent free throw shooting. Nah. But aside from his declining rebounds, declining blocks and two fewer points per game last season than the season before, he’ll have a number of offensive weapons to contend with that he hasn’t had before. I’m not predicting a bust, I’m predicting an ADP about two rounds too early.

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’10 -  Chris Paul. … Unless he misses half a season again, which I don’t mind saying out loud because I don’t own him in any of my leagues. Reverse jinx!

Deep Sleeper -  Marcus Thornton. He was a sleeper in June, overrated in August and back to sleeper in late October. He’s the dark-light-darkus Thornton.

It’s not always easy to keep perspective. Like when the 410 lb. orca whale purchasing $30-worth of Burger King for himself double-checks with the cashier that the soda he was served is Diet. But we here at Razzball know how difficult maintaining perspective can be, especially when you’re drunk and trying to sketch moving objects. So from now until the start of the season, we’re bringing you the 2010 Fantasy Team Previews, which will focus on each NBA team in hopes of painting a clearer fantasy picture. Who’s starting over whom? Who might surprise you and who might make you want to hurl yourself off a bridge in a few months. Enjoy! Next up – The Memphis Grizzlies.

Gained – Xavier Henry, Greivis Vasquez, an unenthusiastic Rudy Gay, a lack of Jamaal Tinsley

Lost – Ronnie Brewer, Jamaal Tinsley

Probable position depth -
PG – Mike Conley, Acie Law, Greivis Vasquez
SG – O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry, Tony Allen
SF – Rudy Gay, Sam Young, Damien Wilkins
PF – Zach Randolph, DeMarre Carroll, Darrell Arthur
C – Marc Gasol, Hasheem Thabeet, Hamed Haddadi

Probable D-Leaguers -
F – Josh Davis

3 Concerns Heading Into the Season -
1. Will someone go ahead and tell Mike Conley that he was a No.4 overall pick four years ago.
That’s not a question, it’s a request. Seriously. He averaged a very pedestrian 12/5 last year with a steal and three to boot, which is good enough to qualify him as ownable, but not good enough to qualify this high 2007 draft pick as successful. And really, this is Conley’s most important year. The Grizz were good last season, close to playoff contenders in a tough Western Conference. Gay and Randolph both played at their maximum capacity last year, and the team really didn’t make any significant improvements since then. If Memphis wants to get into the postseason, it’s likely going to happen on the strength of a weaker Western Conference, Gasol continuing his development and the No.4 pick in the 2007 draft finally starting to play like it. Sadly for the Grizz, I’d bet on Snookie getting into Princeton before I bet on a Conley breakout.

2. Who shows up in 2010: Dr. Rudy or Mr. Gay?
Jekyll and Hyde always confused me because “Jekyll” sounds so much more dangerous than “Hyde.” The doctor is good, the mister is monstrous. If  Stevenson wasn’t going to make the names indicative of the characters, why not just call it Dr. DragonHerpes and Mr. Bunny CottonTail? ...

… I have no idea what I was talking about. Oh yes! Rudy Gay. Similar to Hedo Turkoglu, I just don’t think Gay is as good as his ADP and new contract make him out to be. The Grizz gave 40 mpgs to a man playing just slightly above average (16 PER) and with relatively weak stats to show for his huge minutes (19.5/6/2). But Adam, if he’s  playing 40 minutes per game, who cares that his per minute averages blow? Oh, hi there. I didn’t see you. Glad you could join and ask a good question. Sam Young showed that he’s a talented backup, Xavier Henry reminds me of Ben Gordon and I’d be surprised if Gay doesn’t average his lowest minutes totals of his last three seasons.

3. Outside of the Grizzlies’ starting five, is there anyone worth owning?
Not now, but maybe by the All-Star Break. Acie Law led his team in assists during the preseason, which only vaguely suggests two things: 1) if Conley blows hard enough, he’ll lose minutes to Law and 2) if four assists per game is good enough to lead your team you’re preseason-ing incorrectly. Sam Young showed flashes of ability during his rookie campaign last year too. It’s hard to tell where he’ll be with Xavier Henry in the mix now, but if he finds himself getting minutes, he could suddenly supply your team with a nightly 15/5 line. Then there’s Hasheem Thabeet. If he develops enough to maintain roster spots in this league, you’re looking at this generation’s Theo Ratliff. Have you ever used Ratliff on any of your fantasy teams? Well, you’ll probably use Thabeet at some point too.

Fantasy Disappointment in ’10 – Rudy Gay. But you could have already guessed that, huh?

Biggest Fantasy Contributor in ’10 -  Marc Gasol. Z-Bo is the obvious pick here, but we know what his ceiling is. If you need a reminder look at last year’s stats. That was his ceiling. Didja take a picture while you were there? No? Well, you’ll always have the memories. You’ve forgotten? Well, um, gazing into the past if for suckers. Gasol went from 12/7.5 in his first NBA season to 14.5/9.5 last year. He’ll only be 26 and this will only be his third year. Also, if Randolph or Gay hog the ball less, there’s plenty of room for that underwhelming 17 USG% to rise significantly.

Deep Sleeper -  Xavier Henry. I haven’t seen much from him this preseason, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a Gay/Mayo injury away from breaking out. Mmmm … gay mayo.