Fantasy Basketball Advice

At this point, the tale is out on Sacramento’s DeMarcus Cousins: he’ll be awesome if he can harness his atomic attitude and a massive bust if he can’t. Let’s say it’s that cut ‘n’ dry - it isn’t. I know, but we’re just saying it is for the sake of argument. Whatever. Why don’t we just say Animal Collective is  band people like listening to, since we’re just saying things that aren’t true. May I continue, please? Fine. Let’s just say Cousins is either an absolute bust or a star in this league and we’ll know either way in six months. No one questions this kid’s ability. No one is predicting he’s going to get pushed around on the floor like a mop head on linoleum. Generally, if Cousins fails, most people predict it will be his attitude that does him in. Realistically, he’d have to be an absolute terror to get in his way so much that he becomes ineffective or ineligible on the floor. He’s an athletic 6’11″ powerhouse that can already outmaneuver and outmuscle many other bigs in this league. I like the odds he won’t get in his own way. There are plenty of rookies who never capitalize on their talent because they’re lazy or meek or distracted, but that’s not the wrap on Cousins. The wrap on Cousins is that he’s moody and aggressive, which are characteristics you want in your bruising power forward, no? Yes? Yes.

He led the summer leagues in rebounds and averaged a double-double in five games. He averaged 15/10 at Kentucky and he only played 24 minutes per game to do it. That’s a per36 of 22.5/15.  And, hey, we got through the entire summer without him doing anything nuts. And even if he does, there’s no reason to think it’ll stop him from being a productive player. He doesn’t just have to have a bad attitude, it has to be bad enough to stop him from playing. Fantasy hoops is all about little bets, well-considered guesses. My guess is, Cousins will be a solid ninth or 10th round pick come October.
Season Projections: 33 mpg/.540/.645 /0 3pt/15 pts/7 rbd/1 ast/1 stl/2 blk/2.5 tov

When we last saw Josh Childress, he was an underused forward with a killer afro and issues with his playing time. So he skipped off to Greece in hopes of getting his groove back. And get his groove back he did, assuming you define “getting one’s groove back” as making almost no progress whatsoever. You could define it like that; I mean, I don’t know grooves. Frankly, Childress was gone for an eternity and came back seemingly unchanged, like when my girlfriend returns from the hairdresser. Notice anything different? Uh, it was light outside when you left and now it’s dark? I got a fifth of an inch taken off my hair! Of course you did, just as Childress got a fifth of his FT% chopped off while with Olympiakos (.799 for ATL, .643 GRE).

But Greece ain’t the word no mo’. He’s a Sun now (a Sunnist? A Sunista? A Sunni?). So forget his time in Atlanta where he had a 15.4 USG% and left because of frustrations with his mere 29.9 mpgs. And let us forget about his two seasons in the Euroleague where his production remained largely the same as it was in the NBA despite significantly weaker competition over there. What’s in store in ’10? Short answer: More of the same. Shorter answer: The same. Texted answer: mOR uv thE saim \%/ <—that’s a whiskey glass. I guess our texting friend has bigger fish to fry than discussing Josh Childress.

There’s a bigger glut of small forwards in Childress’ way in Phoenix than there ever was in Atlanta and because of it, I can’t imagine he’ll play more than 25-27 minutes per game. Hedo Turkoglu and Grant Hill are likely ahead of Childress on the depth chart, with Jared Dudley not far behind him. So even if Childress acclimates to the Suns’ go-go gadget offense immediately, he risks not getting enough burn to make it worthwhile from a fantasy standpoint. That said, there is a silver lining. I know how you like your silver lining. I prefer silk lining. I can’t imagine silver lining is comfortable, but maybe it’s more of a power thing with you. Who knows? Anywho, Childress will move from the the slow, plodding Hawks teams of a couple years ago in favor of the 4th fastest team in the league last season. That’s gotta mean something. What’s also gotta mean something is Steve Nash’s presence around Childress. They’re both quick, both runners, both have hair that belongs in the mid-70s. They’re perfect! Perfect enough that Childress could make a nice late-round pick and an unexpected fantasy impact if that roster shifts around a bit during the season.
Season Projections: .519/.730/0.5 3pt/12 pts/5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov

It happens to a lot of players, veterans, rookies, players on 10 day contracts, international players, it does not matter. Somehow, someway Kat Stacks always finds her way into their hotel room.

Joking, but not about Kat Stacks’ skills.

It does not matter what type of player you are, even the good ones can have a bad season, but the good players always bounce back. For instance, we still consider Hedo Turkoglu a very good NBA player and he will be a big reason why Phoenix is again one of the premiere teams in the NBA. Another example is Michael Beasley, but for the opposite reason.

We mentioned how we expect Hedo Turkoglu to have a very good season, perhaps even getting close to 20 PPG thanks to Steve Nash. Nash makes everyone better on his team and Hedo has a lot more talent than the mediocre Grant Hill, Channing Frye, and Jared Dudley. He does a lot of things well on the court, including grabbing rebounds, facilitating the offense, and will likely hit around 40 percent of his threes. Hedo is gonna have a great season.

Devin Harris had an incredible 2009 when he averaged a career high 21.3 PPG, 6.9 APG, and over three RPG but he struggled last season. Any season after his 2009 campaign would pale in comparison, but he still had a down season as he also struggled to stay healthy. Harris should have a much better season as his supporting cast improved with the additions of Derrick Favors, Anthony Morrow, Troy Murphy, Jordan Farmar, and Travis Outlaw. The Nets have the ability to resemble a big league team this season and Harris should have a great all around year.

Chris Paul broke a lot of fantasy owners’ hearts last season by playing only 45 games, but he will be fully healthy and happier with a better supporting cast. The Hornets do not have the most talented roster in the West but they still have Paul and made some improvements. Trevor Ariza will be happy to run with CP3 and both should benefit from one another. 20 PPG and 10 APG, with a few steals per game, and a handful of rebounds is not too much to ask for from the former #1 fantasy pick.

The aforementioned Trevor Ariza had a breakout season last year, but he was a big time chucker in Houston with poor shooting numbers. He was one of the top priorities in Houston’s offense last year, but he will be the third option this year, which means better and smarter shots. He will still stuff all the other stats (SPG, RPG, APG), and although he might have less than 15 PPG, he will have better season this year than he did last.

Al Jefferson had his worst season in the last four years in 2010, but please remember who he played for. Jefferson called the Jazz a Bentley and the Wolves a Toyota and will surely have a better year in 2011. Deron Williams will make the big man very happy and create plenty of scoring chances for Al-Jeff, and he might get back to his 20 and 10 days averaged in ’08 and ’09.

Gilbert Arenas – Yup, remember him? Gil should be fully healthy after nearly sitting out the last three seasons. The Wizards drafted John Wall and are more than willing to let him become the new face of the franchise, but Gil will not go quietly and will still lead this team in scoring. Arenas’ APG will likely go down as he will play a lot without the ball in his hands because of the rookie. The days of Gil putting up nearly 30 PPG are long over, but his contract is not even close to being done, and while the Wizards will be looking for a trade partner, Gil will be shooting his way out of town. Horrible joke.

Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva both signed lucrative long-term deals with the Pistons last year, and both had miserable seasons. BG averaged a career low 13.8 PPG, including career lows in FG% and 3P%, and says he surgically repaired ankle will be completely healthy next year. Gordon will have a big time bounce back year, and average close to 18 PPG, even with a very crowded backcourt in Detroit.

Chuck V will be playing a lot in the frontcourt but will need to haul in a lot more than 4.7 RPG if he wants to see close to 30 MPG. He has never seen more than 27 MPG since his rookie season, and is coming off his worst season of his career while averaging 11.9 PPG and a career low 4.7 RPG. He was healthy for nearly the entire season, and will see heavy minutes in the diminutive Detroit frontcourt. The Pistons gave him a lot of money last year and will keep giving him a lot of opportunities and Chuck should have a solid season.

Every year there are players that rise from obscurity and breakout, i.e. Andray Blatche, Jared Dudley, and Andrea Bargnani in 2010. This year will be no different and I like to think I can predict the future, or give you a better idea of who has the best chance to break out. For a player to “break out” he will see a significant increase in MPG and production. Please feel free to let me know if I missed anyone, as we love all feedback at Razzball.

Jeff Teague – Averaged only 3.2 PPG, and it is never good when your best quality is your FT%, but it is worth mentioning Teague missed only eight FT all season.  He was known as an athletic scoring PG coming out of college, but the Hawks traded for another young combo guard Jordan Crawford, and he might steal some minutes from Teague. The good thing for Teague is Mike Bibby is not very good, and the Hawks would love to hand the keys over to him or Crawford.

J.J. Hickson – Should see a big time increase in production this season, as he will likely see over 30 MPG, and if he stays healthy and out of foul trouble, which he did last season, Hickson will be a very nice fantasy option next year. He put up nearly 15 PPG and 8.5 RPG if you extrapolate (my new favorite word) his numbers to 36 MPG and he is definitely one of Cleveland’s best athletes. Cleveland will run without the Queen and Hickson will be Mo Williams’ new running mate. J.J. does not do much of anything else but he shoots well from the field and he should start to blossom into a pretty good NBA player, as he is only 22 years old on September 4^th. Love me some J.J. Hickson … as of right now.

Rodrigue Beaubois – Jason Kidd averaged a remarkable 36-MPG last season, and this might be the year where Kidd starts to take a back seat to Rodrigue Beaubois. The Mavs are hoping Beaubois can start focusing on the PG duties, because he only showed flashes of scoring brilliance and the jury is still out on his PG abilities. Roddy had a crummy 1.3 APG/1.0 TPG and will need to work on his decision making or risk losing MPG to J.J. Barea, one of my Puerto Rican friends favorite player. His fav? Carlos Arroyo. Duh.

Ty Lawson – With the Nuggets reportedly ready to abandon ship it looks like Ty Lawson might be the starting PG for them by the end of the season. Who knows who will be running with him but Lawson will be a fine NBA PG. He had a phenomenal A/T ratio (3/1) and will definitely see an increase in MPG as Chauncey Billups’ career will start to slow down sooner or later.

Dorell Wright – For the first time in his career Dorell Wright might be able to help your fantasy team. Wright has a real good chance of starting for the Warriors and only Charlie Bell and Reggie Williams have a shot at taking MPG away. Although Nelly can get wild with his rotation it looks like Wright, and his brand spankin’ new three-year deal (!), will get plenty of opportunity in the Golden State.

Chase Budinger – He had a heck of a season for a guy that was drafted in the typically futile second round. Budinger averaged nearly 16 PPG, while grabbing over five RPG, and over two APG per 36 MPG. Budinger can play both guard and forward and is a great athlete who shot the ball extremely well for a rookie. Shane Battier’s act is almost up in Houston and Budinger might be the air apparent.

Darren Collison – By finishing 4th in the 2010 NBA Rookie of the Year award, and by snagging a first place vote, Collison had a breakout rookie campaign. But since he moved to the Pacers and might lead the NBA in MPG, Collison will have an even better season in 2011. He has been a stud PG for his entire life and is always over-looked because he is not the strongest player, but DC is the new pace car in Indy. He will see well over 30 MPG and average over 15 PPG and perhaps 8 APG. He does not have the strongest supporting cast but he did not have much in New Orleans last year either. Just ask CP3. Post script: The Pacers might be the worst team in the NBA.

Blake Griffin – Who? Yup, Blake Griffin should have a very good rookie season. It’s really not saying much since he is the 2009 #1 pick, but I feel like people are forgetting how good he really is. BG is already one of the most explosive big men in basketball, but Chris Wilcox also has mesmerizing athleticism. Griffin should be much better than Wilcox but he might be playing his best basketball after the all star break, so stay patient with BG.

Steve Blake – will likely take over the PG duties for the Lakers from venerable vet Derek Fisher, as Blake’s lucrative long term contract suggests. Blake got a 4 year deal worth $4 million per season, and while Fisher will be in at the end of games, the Lake Show did not pay Blake to sit. He is a good NBA PG, much better than Luke Ridnour, who received the same contract from the T’Wolves and sometimes I get upset I did not work hard enough to become a mediocre PG that David Kahn would spend millions on. Blake will average around 10 PPG, with 5 APG, a couple RPG, and will have plenty of productive games this season.

Roy Hibbert – Will definitely benefit from the Darren Collison acquisition but he probably will not see many more MPG. Hibbert averaged 25 MPG, and he might see 30 MPG, but he was not super productive last season, grabbing only 5.7 RPG and scoring 11.7 PPG. He will definitely improve this season and his production will increase but it won’t be because of an increase in minutes, but because Indy’s new pace car Collison. Expect a 13 PPG and hopefully more than 8 RPG this season from Hibbert.

Kevin Love – He should have a monster year, as he is all alone in the Minnesota front court. Love, a rebounding machine, has a very good chance of being the top rebounder in the NBA, and will likely lead the Wolves in MPG and PPG. He averaged a double-double last year and is benefiting from playing with Team USA in the off-season. Look for Love to be an all-star candidate by mid-season.

Marcus Thornton- He had a great rookie year, averaging over 14 PPG, and he should have a better season with Chris Paul in control. Marco Bellinelli was acquired only to back-up, and there is no such thing as a healthy Peja Stojakovic, and look for the sharp shooter from the Bayou to be a top scorer for New Orleans.

Ray Felton – He’s never going to be a great NBA guard and regressed quite a bit last season. He obviously did not get along with Larry Brown in CHA and signed the best deal offered to him, which was only a lucrative two year deal in NYC. Felton should see an increase in production across the board under Mike D’Antoni’s guidance, but he needs to stay away from the post game spread. Felton’s waste continues to grow, hence the two year deal, but he should have a good season in NYC. Expect 15 PPG, 7 APG, and 1.5 SPG, which might be his best NBA season ever.

Anthony Randolph – Everyone’s favorite sleeper has found himself in the middle of the biggest city in the world and is now a part of the world’s biggest hype machine. No matter how bad the Knicks have been and will be, their fans will find a way to get excited about something. Although Randolph is not very good (yet), there is no doubting his immense talents. He will start for the “high-powered” Knickerbocker offense, lead by Felton and Amar’e Stoudemire, and will have a quality game once a week as long as he is not injured, which he tends to be, a lot. Randolph needs to add strength and consistency to his game and until then he will be known as everyone’s favorite sleeper. Randolph will see an increase in MPG and production, but he needs to find consistency and stay out of street clothes before we take him seriously.

James Harden – He plays for a very young and talented team, which could be one of the best teams in the NBA. He was a top 3 pick two years ago, and would have much better numbers on a non-contender, but he is relegated to being a role player on the Thunder. Harden will have a better year across the board, but by how much is the question. He averaged 22.9 MPG and will likely see over 25 MPG this season and Thabo Sefolosha is one of the more overrated players in the NBA. If Harden can improve his defense then he will see more MPG and much better production in 2010.

Serge Ibaka – Will see a substantial increase across the board as his MPG will likely near 30 per game. He only averaged 18 MPG last regular season, but played well against the Lakers at 25 MPG. Ibaka will not score a lot but he will rebound and block shots and he should turn in to a quality NBA player by the end of the season.

J.J. Redick – A few years ago it was laughable to think Redick would be a high quality NBA player worth $21 million over three years, but that is what he has turned into. Redick is a deadly outside shooter and will see an increase in MPG with his new hefty contract. He will average over 10 PPG, with good shooting numbers, and hopefully J.J. can add another element to his game this season, perhaps APG, SPG, or even a few more RPG.

Goran Dragic – It is safe to say this will be the last season Goran Dragic is a backup NBA PG, as he is in the last year of his deal in Phoenix. Dragic’s numbers project to over 15 PPG and over 6 APG per 36 MPG, and broke out in a big way in the 2010 playoffs. He will see over 20 MPG, compared to 18 MPG last year, and although a backup PG, Dragic is worth drafting and probably owning the entire season with Steve Nash not getting younger.

Wesley Matthews -He did not get a boat load of cash from Portland to sit on the bench and he will definitely be a team leader in MPG. It could be a horrible contract by the end of the season, and Matthews was undrafted for a reason, but do not be afraid to spend a late round draft pick on Matthews. With his huge contract he will see every opportunity to succeed on a very good Portland team.

DeMar DeRozan – One of the better young players in the NBA, DeRozan could see a very significant increase in every offensive category. Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu are gone, which opens the door wide for DeRozan to blossom and although he might be the 2nd option on offense behind Andrea Bargnani, DeRozan will average over 15 PPG. We can only hope and pray the high flying DeRozan can add some other elements to his game like APG, RPG, and SPG, but he is still very young and that will come later in his career. Even though DeRozan is only a scorer next year, expect big things from the kid.

Tiago Splitter – Splitter was drafted in 2007 but had an expensive buyout which lead to him coming over three years later. Splitter will likely start for the Spurs alongside Tim Duncan, and will do the dirty work the Spurs love. He will rebound, defend, block shots, and make put backs. He will not be a superstar big man, but he should be good enough for a late round pick.

Amir Johnson – Johnson signed a lucrative long term deal to play significant minutes in Toronto and he is in line for a very good 2011 season. Johnson played 17 MPG last season and his numbers project to nearly 13 PPG and 10 RPG per 36 MPG. Amir does not do much other than rebound and score, but he has never gotten the opportunity he now has in Toronto.

Jarrett Jack – There is no question Jack is the starting PG in Toronto and although his BFF Chris Bosh is gone, the Raptors still have some good parts to their team. We discussed DeRozan, and Bargnani should progress like a #1 pick this season while eclipsing the 20 PPG mark. Jose Calderon has wore out his welcome in Toronto and a trade is inevitable. Do not waste a high pick on Jack, but steal him late.

JaVale McGee – McGee has only averaged 15.6 MPG in his career and we guarantee he sees more than 25 MPG as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Just read this.

Michael Beasley – Yup, that Michael Beasley. He has not been awful in his career and he is still very talented, but Beez is still very immature, even for a professional basketball player. It is hard to say what he will do this season but he will get ample opportunity to produce. We can only hope he stays out of trouble and will be a big time steal in the later rounds if he does, but he won’t. He’s Michael Beasley.

Martell Webster - Webster played a career high 28.4 MPG and averaged another career high 10.7 PPG two seasons ago in Portland. He was not much of an option while playing behind Brandon Roy, Nic Batum, Rudy Fernandez, and Travis Outlaw and will see a lot more shots in Minnesota. He will turn 24 in early December and still has plenty of room to grow in his game. He is a boom or bust as are most of the T’Wolves.

Nicolas Batum - With Brandon Roy’s propensity for injuries and Rudy Fernandez’s absence, the only thing in front of Batum blossoming this season is the $35 million man Wesley Matthews. Matthews will have every chance to shine in Portland but Batum is still going to be a very good NBA player. Bold statement: Batum will win Most Improved Player.

Eric Gordon – If you are a member of Team Nike *cough* I mean Team USA, on any level (A or B team), you are a stud, especially at the guard position. Gordon looks primed for a breakout season and we would not be surprised if he went for 20 PPG. The Clippers are seemingly always in disarray, and although Vinny D is not the smartest coach in the world, he was hired in Chicago to develop young talent and will be asked to do the same in Anaheim (the Clippers do not play in Los Angeles, the Lakers do). Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, and Taj Gibson all benefitted from Vinny’s teaching, and the Clippers hired him to help Gordon, Blake Griffin, and Eric Bledsoe grow. Although Gordon digressed last season he has had a great summer and if he starts facilitating and rebounding he is in for a great 2011.

Every night we go to bed and say our basketball prayers and they include two prayers for Hasheem Thabeet and Greg Oden. We pray every night that both big men will be productive this season and we say another two prayers for both of Greg Oden’s knees. Thabeet might take another season of patience but if Oden wants to sign a long term contract he will need to show up every night, stay out of foul trouble, rebound, defend, and stay out of street clothes. That might be a lot to ask for out of a player who has not played much in the last three years, but it is not a lot to ask for from the 2007 #1 pick. We are not sure who will be  the bigger bust but we loved both players in college and still do, although they have been dreadful as professionals.

There were only five Frailblazers who played in 72+ games last season and two of those guys have been collecting pensions since ’08! Look at that squad last year. They looked like Spinal Tap drummers. The Crazy 88s after Uma got done with ‘em. Nagasaki. Ants under a magnifying glass. It seems like everyone on the team was wiped out with some horrific injury that displaced their kneecap to somewhere around their calf.  If you’re a fan of the team, when is it rational to get nervous about attending games at the House That Walton’s Mangled Feet Built? If you’re a father taking the family for a fun little outing at the Rose Garden, do you skip getting snacks for fear of slipping on the stairs and dislocating a shoulder? Do you walk to the stadium because you’re sure a t-bone is coming in the parking lot if you don’t? Do you move the hell out of Portland and watch the games on TV because your team is cursed? The answer is maybe. After this season. If the injury plague swoops in for another year, then yes – you flee. But for now, stay, if for no other reason than to see how awesome Nicolas Batum becomes.

I won’t bury the lede here (too late!). The kid, in the scant 37 games he played last season after recovering from a shoulder injury, had a 127 ORtg. Now, 37 games isn’t enough to qualify him for consideration among the league leaders (if it had been, he’d have easily taken first place. Nene was the actual league leader with a 124.3 ORtg), but 37 games is 45 percent of the season – it’s not nothing. What also ain’t nothing is the fact that the Trailblazers averaged seven more points per 100 possessions when he was on the court than when he wasn’t. In short, Batum has the capability to become an offensive dynamo, whose long arms can also garner him plenty of steals and blocks. What was missing in the previous two seasons was opportunity.

So here’s where you cross them fingers, Rip City faithful. If he stays healthy, he’ll start. If he starts, it’s off to the races – which isn’t to say there’s nothing else standing in his way. Firstly, there’s Wesley Matthews and Luke Babbitt, but if Batum produces like he’s capable, those roadblocks won’t be in his way for long. Then there’s the team’s slow pace – a big fantasy deficit. Portland averaged five fewer possessions per game than the average NBA team and almost 10 fewer than the fastest teams in the league. That’s an extra 3-5 minutes worth of offensive statistics most teams had over Portland. So 36 mpg on the Blazers would translate to only about 33 minutes on one of the average NBA teams. Multiply that over 82 games and you’re talking over five games worth of fantasy points Batum won’t be accumulating simply because he plays for such a slow team.

That said, his per33 is better than most per36s in this league. Nic may have dropped the “h” in his name, but anyone who’s played H-O-R-S-E knows that once the H is gone, next comes the “oooooohh!”

Season Projections: .505/.855/2 3pt/14.5 pts/4.5 rbd/1.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk/1 tov