Fantasy Basketball Advice

Funny thing about sleepers: as soon as they’re recognized by even a small group, they can’t be sleepers anymore. It never fails. After scratching and clawing to get someone, anyone, to buy into my sleeper theories about a player, I’m always regretful for having done so the second I prove to be successful. Like when I spent all that time telling everyone how awesome Lupe Fiasco was after ‘Food and Liquor’ and how out of touch they were if they disagreed. Then ‘The Cool’ came out and suddenly everyone liked Fiasco* and I was upset that I failed to trademark my status as Lupe Super Fan No. 1. It’s like paying your pension and dying before you can collect on it (it’s a simile within a simile! Get excited!). Had you known that was going to happen, you would have just bought a damn boat with the money you squirreled away. Then again, had you done that, you almost certainly would have led a happier life, lived to be 103 and died a pensionless pauper. This would be the equivalent to everyone taunting me for liking Lupe Fiasco after they heard ‘Lazers’ and I, again, wish I’d kept my mouth shut for entirely different reasons. What does any of that have to do with Toney Douglas and his outlook for the 2011 fantasy basketball season? I’m about to tell you (and then immediately wish I hadn’t).

Here are some of the things you probably didn’t notice about Toney Douglas in 2010: He averaged more threes-per-game last year for the Knicks than anyone but ‘Melo and Chauncey. Besides New York’s two starting PGs (Felton and Billups), Douglas averaged and totaled more dimes than any other Knick on the team. Only Raymond Felton averaged more steals than Douglas. Of the 11 Knicks who appeared on the floor for more than 600 minutes last season, Douglas was only ranked sixth in USG%. All that and he only averaged the eighth-most minutes per game of anyone on the Knicks roster in 2010. So what’s it all mean? It means the guy averaged five more minutes a game in 2010 than in 2009 and improved his game slightly. Entering his third season at the age of 25 on a team weak at both guard positions and known for running small rotations on a high possessions-per-game offense suggests his 11/3/3, with 3 stls+3ptm per game from 2010 won’t be his ceiling. It also suggests if he improves his FG% a little and sees something closer to 25-27 minutes per game like I suspect he will, owners will get something like 14/3/4, with 3 stls+3ptm per game in 2011. And all that suggests that no matter what he do, no matter what he into, no matter where he be when he look outside his window; brown grass or green grass, picket fence or barbed wire, he’ll never let ‘em put him down, he’ll just raise him arms higher. Raise ‘em ’til his arms tire, let ‘em know he’s there; that Toney’s strugglin’, survivin’, that he’s gonna persevere. Or whatever.

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* It feels incorrect to refer to Lupe Fiasco by just his last name. Lupe seems fine, but not Fiasco. Ugh. What a mess. Or ordeal. Or … I dunno. I Can’t think of any more appropriate adjectives.

Above all else, remember this: you should ignore the preseason. There are myriad reasons to ignore it. It’s inaccurate for one. For two, it’s not representational of what the regular season team rotations will be. For hirds, many of the starters (i.e the guys that will end up on your fantasy team come draft day) are going at 60 percent. And for fourths … no. I’m gonna tell you my fourth. A man’s got to have secrets. By now, you’ve run the first six or seven draft rounds in your head dozens of times, your early decisions are being honed to a deadly point. But this isn’t about the early rounds, this is about those middle and late rounds, where everything is a toss-up, your eyes go cross, and you start tasting colors. That’s where preseason performance can help you. As precarious as preseason information can be, it is the most current barometer for a player’s performance. What’s happening now may serve as a final tie-breaker between two late rounds picks or a deal-breaker on that player you were iffy on even including in your draft cheat sheets. Look, telling owners to ignore NBA exhibitions while preparing for the upcoming season is as useless an exercise as doing jumping jacks in a Dunkin’ Donuts. Don’t act like you’re just there for a croissandwich and a water. You’re there because the special donut switched to orange and black sprinkles for the holidays. If you insist on the donut, might as well get the special sprinkles. And if you insist on worrying about dozens of sprained ankles every morning, might as well take a look at some of the biggest surprises so far in the 2010 preseason:

Arron Afflalo -Not a lot of chatter about Spellcheck this preseason, but in five games, dude’s averaged .493 from the floor, sinking the third-most points (20.6) and the second-most treys (3.2) for a team on which he will most likely be starting.

Kevin Love -17.7/11.5 and almost two treys a game. If you were considering waiting until the fifth round to grab Love, you better hope we’re not in the same league.

Ryan Anderson – Don’t look now but the NBA player with a name that sounds most like the kid who got into fights on the playground because his parents were divorcing is averaging 7.2 reebs, 3.6 3pt+stl and .929 from the stripe.

Vince Carter – .558/.923/2.5 3pt/17.5 pts. Now I know he won’t be available when I’m prepared to draft him.

Blake Griffin – Technically, he’s made it farther into the NBA season than he did last year. So he’s got that goin’ for him. People wondered how Blake Superior was going to react to a season of recovery and the jitters that go with it. How ’bout 17.3/12.3/1.8 stl/1.2 blk in six preseason games? Oh, and he shot 10-for-12 from the free throw line over the weekend to show a little more grace at the stripe than usual. Blake’s! Got a new grace / Blaaake’s got a new grace!

Marvin Williams -”Hey Chuck! Chuck! It’s your cousin Marvin. Marvin Williams. You know that offensive system you’ve been waiting for me to play in? Well, watch me in this … !”

John Wall - He’s leading everyone in preseason assists (8) and second only to James Harden in steals (2.2) while still averaging 16+ points per game. Remember back in 2003 when you passed on drafting LeBron in the fourth round because you just weren’t sure how he’d respond to the high caliber of competition? Fool you twice, shame on you.

James Harden – Harden’s per36 average last season for free throw attempts was five. So far this preseason in fewer than 30 mpg, he’s averaging 7.5 trips to the line per game. And when he’s at the line he’s made 90 percent of his shots as compared to 81 percent last season. This is – how they say in France – bananas.

Linas Kleiza – Kleiza’s shooting .600 from the floor, averaging 1.8 treys a game and over 14 points. If he holds that line past November 10, I’ll let you come into my house and steal one item of your choosing from my kitchen.

Rudy Fernandez – I’m in a 14-team league with 18 players to a team, and Fernandez went undrafted. Largely, I feel, because he could disappear like Keyser Soze at any minute. Still, perhaps the guy with the 252nd pick ought to burn it on the guy averaging 2 steals, 3.6 treys and a .488 FG% over five games.

Roy Hibbert – Doc is averaging 15.5/8/2.5 blocks in under 31 minutes per game. If I hadn’t already covered my entire back with a tattoo of the Ninja Turtles riding their own separate dinosaurs, I’d most certainly ink Hibbert there.

If the Raptors make it out of the season with anything better than one of the five worst records in the league, Canadians everywhere should celebrate – or whatever it is Canadians do in lieu of celebrating. I’ve never actually seen a group of Canadians celebrate anything. Even during hockey season or the first day of maple syrup season, the closest to celebration Canucks ever seem to get is  excitedly standing next to someone who also happens to be excited. But if the Raptors escape a cellar spot in the Eastern Conference, everyone up North should go ahead and down a congratulatory LaBatt’s (a “Congrats LaBatts”). If Andrea Bargnani is going to force the positive hand of fate, he’s going to need help. The Raps have a few pieces that may surprise this season, but none so tantalizingly as Linas Kleiza.

Kleiza’s a perfect sleeper because he only showed flashes of quality play in his four previous NBA seasons (he played Euroball last year), plays for a small market team with few eyes on it and is likely taking the starting spot of a man so disliked in Canada that one Torontoan once threatened to say something bad about him at a future date maybe – Canadians aren’t very confrontational. As a member of the Nuggets, he never averaged more than 23 minutes per game and rarely saw the offense move through him (19 USG% since 2006). On the Raptors, he’ll be at least the fourth scoring option on a team that is open to negotiate who its top scoring options are. Wait, what? I’m saying Kleiza will be giving the opportunity to play and succeed, unlike in Denver where ‘Melo and Chauncey and six other people saw the ball before Kleiza. After averaging 17/6 for Olympiacos Piraeus last season, he averaged 19/7 in the Worlds this summer in addition to the 3 3pt/20 pts/5 rbd-line he dropped in his first preseason game. Draft him late and you might find yourself excitedly standing next to someone who also happens to be excited.

2010 Projections: .440/.754/1.5 3pt/14.5 pts/6.5 rbd/1 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov

Lemme guess, you saw a picture of an Indiana Pacer and you almost skipped over this post as a premeditated strike against boredom. Either that, or you did skip over this post as a premeditated strike against boredom and a buddy of yours who read this post told you later about how I predicted your actions. Either way, I’m in your head and I’m aware of how bored the Pacers make you. They’re as sleep-inducing as a belly full of crackers on a long, warm car ride. (What have I told you about eating crackers and falling asleep in cars? If you’re going to do it, at least let me drive). I’m sorry that you hate the Pacers and Indiana and probably Indy car racing. And indie rock. And India.Ari. And periods placed in the middle.of two words.for no apparent.reason. And free-association. I’m sorry for all of it, but this is fantasy basketball. It’s not supposed to be fun. So read on – against your better judgment – for a reason to draft Roy Hibbert a few rounds earlier than you were probably planning.

The Pacers  are keen to move boldly into the Tyler Hansbrough era (yeah, brah!) with a 2010 lottery draft power forward side dish. It also matters that Hibbert will be the Man in the middle from here on out. He was the man in the middle last season, just not quite developed enough to capitalize the “m.”

Between his rookie season and last season, his percentages jumped significantly (.471 FG%, .667 FT% in ’08, .495/.754 in ’09) and he was able to distribute the ball twice as much in year two as he did in year one. But more than any other improvement, Hibbert settled down as a sophomore, learned a little, breathed in through the nose and out through the mouth. And while this rambunctiousness caused a small decline in his per36 stats, it will also be what allows him to remain in games longer (he averaged 10.5 more minutes per game ’09 than in ’08, yet only increased his per-game fouling by 0.4).

A seachange is a transformation that occurs gradually over time and when the transformation is complete, the form may look the same, but the substance is different. In basketball, this transformation often manifests fully in a player’s third year – a threechange, if you will (you will). Hibbert has improved steadily in his first two seasons and the third looks to offer him more playing time, more responsibility and bigger expectations.

Season Projections: .525/.759/0 3ptm/14.5 pts/7 rbd/2.5 ast/0.5 stl/2 blk/2 tov

Let’s not pussyfoot around here (I just vacuumed): would you trust David Kahn and his Minnesota Timbergoofs (or is it “Timbergooves”?) with your fantasy team? No. You wouldn’t. You would? No. You wouldn’t. Stop it. Despite the facts that Wesley Johnson was the best player Minnesota was likely going to get in this year’s draft and that Kahn managed to accidentally not mess it up, the third-year Orange is still entering into a system that needs a lot of Band-Aids, and not the kind where Kate Hudson tags along on your tour bus, bro. Rookie Johnson is like a three-legged puppy forced to cross a cargo net – he’ll make it to the end eventually, it’s just going to be hilarious in the meantime.

The problem here, if I may be so bold as to pretend there’s just one, is that Corey Brewer and the newly acquired Martell Webster play slight variations of the game Wesley Johnson played in Syracuse and will be expected to play in the Land O’Lakes. All three are wiry, all three are quick and all can be troublesome matchups for other small forwards. But having a trio of such similarly skilled players in the decidedly unskilled hands of Kurt Rambis and the T-Spoof (T-Spooves?) brass is a bad omen. Bad as in “not good.” There are no good omens. If they’re good, they’d be “signs.”

So trust me when I say Johnson’s entering this season under a bad sign, which, as we learned two dozen words ago, is an omen. Oh, man.

Even if Johnson starts the season and stays startin’, the T-Woofs are going to tinker with fitting in Brewer and Webster whilst also tinkering with not sucking as bad as they did last season. Ask Kevin Love all about it, he’ll tell you. Johnson’s going to have to overcome a lot of tinkering. The kid has too many tools not to make an impact, but it won’t happen quickly. I’m thinking late 2011.

Season Projections: .495/.770/1 3pt/13.5 pts/6.5 rbd/1.5 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov