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We are pleased to announce that the Razzball family has a new baby bot. We’re calling him Stocktonator and he’s programmed to assist (motherf***in’ pun!) season-long and DFS fantasy basketball players all while wearing uncomfortably short shorts that only just conceal his ball bearings. (Shoutout to JB for the Stocktonator visual)

The methodology behind Stocktonator’s projections (today’s games + next 6 days + a 7 day total) is as follows:

  • Create ‘per 36 minute’ rate stats for each stat category using past performance backtested to determine proper weighting – e.g., yesterday’s game has higher weight than 80 games ago.
  • Use a Player Reference file updated hourly to determine a player’s status – e.g., Healthy, Questionable, Out, etc.
  • Model likely starters based on active players and project player minutes using previous games and starter/bench role. Adjust/redistribute player minutes so that team minutes sum up to 240 + an OT adjustment (closer games more likely to go to OT).
  • Replaced modeled starters with actual starters if the lineup has been posted. (Shoutout to malamoney for his invaluable help on this task!)
  • Adjust player rate stats based on opponent defense.
  • Adjust player/team possessions based on team’s average possessions/game and opponent possessions/game.
  • Adjust player rate stats based on deltas between Vegas projected team points and Stocktonator’s projected team points.
  • Apply rate stats to projected minutes.
  • Tiny adjustment to player points based on deltas between Stockonator’s team point projection and Vegas point projection.

The projections are updated beginning around 6AM EST and then hourly during the day at the :45 minute mark (e.g., 6:45PM). The process completes around the :50 mark (pages with today’s projections have a ‘Last Update’ field) and should incorporate all late-breaking lineups / injury scratches but, as you fantasy basketballers know, so much sh*t goes down in the last 15 minutes before game time that some things are bound to fall through the cracks.

We have been testing the results over the past 1-2 weeks against several established NBA projection sources and can say with Ivory Soap confidence (99.44%) that Stocktonator is on par with the competition. We will continue to test throughout this season looking for areas of improvement – most notably in player minute projections.

Below are links to all the projection pages. Stocktonator (and the NBA DFSBot) will be FREE for the rest of the 2016-2017 season as we want to maximize usage/exposure of the tools. We are working with DraftCrunch to get our DFS projections into their lineup optimizer – should have an update shortly on that front. (There will be a cost to get the lineup optimizer but free trials will be available).

Daily NBA Projections Today | Tomorrow | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 | Day 6 | Day 7
Weekly NBA Projections Next 7 Days
DFSBot  DraftKings | FanDuel | Yahoo!

Below is a snippet of Stocktonator’s projections for today.

 

Some items of note:

  • All players are linked to their player page.
  • The Time field is red if the lineups have not been incorporated and green if they have.
  • Vegas Points and Spread updated hourly. Not available until some time in the morning EST.
  • I = “Injury Status”. Blank if healthy. P=”Probable”, Q=”Questionable”, D=”Doubtful”. All players who are ‘Out’ are removed.
  • Y! PTS = Yahoo’s season-long default scoring.
  • Own% = ESPN’s ownership of a player. (Note: TBD how often this will be updated). This is designed to help flag possible free agents.

The tables work the same as our MLB and NFL tables. Click the column header to sort. The boxes underneath the column headers are for filtering. Number fields can handle greater than/less than queries (e.g., <80 in Own % would remove all players with 80+% ownership). Text fields are left/right wildcarded so G in Pos will display all PG/SG. Use ! for NOT (e.g., !PG would remove all Point Guards, !@ in Opp would remove all Away Games) . OR is | (e.g., PG|SG would return PG and SG) but does not have wildcards so you’d need to enter “LeBron James|Russell Westbrook” to see both players.

In addition, you will find the projections incorporated into all our NBA player pages in the following areas:

  • A top box noting the player’s next game, his health status (if not Healthy, you’ll see a description of the issue), and the player’s ranks (if playing today) against his Position (e.g, “PG”), his macro-position (e.g., “Guard”), and against all players based on Yahoo’s season-long projections.
  • The next 7 day projected averages placed next to their last 2 week, last 4 week, and season-long averages.

  • Projection for each of the next 7 days, their 7 day average, and DFS projected points, salary, and $/point for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. For the daily/next 7 day projections, player ranks are included as well.

Please feel free to ask me any questions or provide feedback (particularly on players whose projections look funky) in this post or on the individual tool pages.

  1. Dusty says:
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    This is awesome!!! Great work Razzball

  2. Threekola says:
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    Awesome tool! I mean…robot…sorry Stocktonator

    Anyway, who do you like between Barton and Levert ROS?

    I have Barton in my 10 team 9 cat and Levert is very tempting

    • Thanks. I am 100% focused on day-to-day projection minutia vs season-long assessments. I’d ask the other writers.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Threekola: @Rudy Gamble: You mighta put somewhere else, but checking in here 🙂 I’ll stay with Barton, but yeah it’s close

  3. JG

    JG says:
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    Suweeeeeet!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @JG: I’m so pumped for this!

  4. Lasandro says:
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    WOOOOOAH this is great! @JB Gilpin, I kinda remember you mentioning this a while back. Sht just got real, son.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Lasandro: Hah yeah we have been discussing, doing some preliminary work on this a while. Good to see the Stocktonator is now released into the wild for robot goodness!

  5. COURT-VISION says:
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    We live in the future now.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @COURT-VISION: The Stocktonator will soon run for president, take over Siri as the robot on iPhones, and then travel back in time to kill John Connor

  6. Doctor G says:
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    Awesome!!!!! Congratulations Razzball!!!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Doctor G: Thanks man, all the thanks to Rudy for working on this for us!

  7. Charles says:
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    Rudy- great, as always. There are a few position discrepancies on the DK DFSBot. Giannis PG/SF vs SF-only. Reed PF vs C.

    • okay, position should be all fixed. let me know if you see any other player that looks off!

  8. Viz

    Viz says:
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    Looks great Rudy, thanks! In addition to the position discrepancies above, Wayne Ellington is only SF on DK now. That’s all I’ve caught though. Hopefully one day we can get to the hockey side of things! Ovechkinator maybe? 🙂

    • okay, position should be all fixed. let me know if you see any other player that looks off!

  9. Charles says:
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    Does the updates time summary mean that the late game projections won’t get lineup adjustments?

    • It should be set to update now throughout the night. if the data/time stamp isn’t updating for late games, let me know

  10. Craig Bozic

    Craig says:
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    Love it… Feel there needs to be a Razzball line of Stocktonator shorts on the market lol

  11. Charles says:
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    Is it possible to change the game time filter to something more sortable? For example in baseball, you could use <4 and get only the early games. I'm getting tripped up by all the :30 start times. Is it possible?

    • Should have a solution for this in next day or two.

      • Charles says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: military time might do the trick!

        • i just did a fix on the DFSBots. Changed time to hour and then added another field to designate starter/bench (it is highlighted when the lineup has been posted and incorporated). Let me know what you think.

          • Charles says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: highlighting works well. So tough with NBA to get final lineups in enough time to make a good roster move. The possible lineup optimizer will help with that for DFS. For the game time, I think DK has contests where the :30 minutes matters. So I’m not sure if rounding to the hour will always work. As an example, tomorrow DK has separate contests at 730p, 8p, and 830p. Could you use “.5”? So DFSBot would show 7.5, 8, and 8.5 for the game times? Or even 7.30, 8, and 8.30 would work too, right? Use a decimal instead of a colon for the time.

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