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Here’s what you’re likely to hear around the fantasy blogosphere today: You’re likely to read that Norris Cole scored 14 of Miami’s final 24 points. You’re likely to be reminded of Mario Chalmers‘ embarrassing 6 tovs in 19 minutes. And if you read about those two things, you’re probably likely to read about how Cole is Miami’s newest, shiniest toy. “20/4/4! Grab him!” you’ll read. “Obvious add,” will ring in your ears as you rush to your fantasy team. I won’t stop you. These things that you’re likely to read are not wrong. But what you might not read today is how totally bananas these next few weeks are going to be for you whether you sit on the team you drafted or stream the bottom five players every day. How weird? Effing weird. You own Mehmet Okur and Robin Lopez, and admit it, you checked to see if Marshon Brooks is still available. And weirder still, he might not be. This is how the season is going to be for a while. Field-goal percentages are down, turnovers are up, Stephen Curry‘s ankle-tweaks-per-game are breaking records … and eventually one of Stephen Curry’s actual ankles. High draft picks are playing 18 minutes and sitting because they’re out of shape or on the winning end of a blowout, or the losing end of a blowout. Guys who shouldn’t be playing are playing – and succeeding and then immediately sinking back into the deep bench. It’s only going to get weirder, starting with Cole – a player you all know damn well is not a top option on this Miami squad despite evidence to the contrary. I’m not telling you to pass on him. Don’t pass on him. Pick him up. Cole’s not coal, he’s tungsten. All I’m pointing out is that tungsten ain’t gold. So, let’s keep this weird train a-choo-choo-chooing and look at what else happened in fantasy basketball last night.

Keyon Dooling – The thing to key on here is not the 18 points he scored, but the fact that he did almost nothing else and that Paul Pierce was not in the lineup. I’d like also to point out what I did with the “key-on.” Some of you might have missed that.

Rajon Rondo – You want me to poop all over your party? Rondo’s 7 tovs essentially negate the fantasy impact of his 12 assists. 22/8/0 < 22/8/12. #POoPED

Jermaine O’Neal – 0/4/0, with nary a block nor a steal, as J.O. reminded us all why it is we needed to be reminded that Jermaine O’Neal still plays basketball.

Marshon Brooks – He took a handful of questionable shots, including four bricks from beyond the arc. I mention this to temper all the rushing fantasy owners are doing to add this guy. Let’s see him do it twice in a row.

Vladimir Radmanovic – Led everyone on both teams (except Brooks) in minutes played last night and ended with 17/3/5, with a trio of treys. Leave him be. This won’t be the last time I type this today, but rostering him would illustrate to the rest of the league that you’re impetuous and easily swayed. Don’t be that guy. That being said, if you listen to me telling you not to be that guy, you’re still being that guy.

Zaza Pachulia – 13/11. Please don’t make me talk to you about Zaza Pachulia.

Derrick Favors – 8/6 in 19 minutes. Nudge me when he’s more than a paper starter.

Al Jefferson – Shot 2-for-16. /re-checks box score assuming there is a typo. Certainly he must have gone either 2-for-6 or 12-for-16. 2-for-16 can’t be right, can it? Ugh. It can. It is. Pours a shot. Drinks it. Tastes terrible. Looks at bottle. Turns out, it was dish soap. Suddenly knows how Al Jefferson must feel. Proceeds to barf. \ Anyway, Jefferson also went 0-for-9 at the rim last night, which is actually more awful than it sounds. It’s urrful. I blame the offseason empanadas. Not sure if Jefferson even likes those, but they’re getting blamed for his lack of energy and lift just the same.

C.J. Miles – Shot 1-for-8 in 18 season-debut blowout minutes. Ooof. At least he died doing what he loved.

Enes Kanter – 5/10, with a block in the first 21 minutes of his professional basketball career. I’m pretty sure Kevin Love had this covered before the first timeout of his game. Seriously though, it kind of doesn’t make sense for you to be rostering him on your fantasy team.

Marcus Camby – 2/9/5, with 2 blocks. So far this season, he’s averaging 4/11/5.5, with 2 blk. Show of hands: Who knew he still had two consecutive Camby-like games in him? C’mon lemme see those hands. Don’t be shy. I count one hand. Wait. No. You were just stretching? Okay.

Jimmer Fredette – Shot 4-of-10 and ended with 10 points. When will it be time to mention how ghastly Jimmer’s defense is and how the ghastliness of that defense is going to hinder the playing time he gets? Oh, just now? This counts as a mention? Well, then. That’s convenient.

From Around The Web

  1. JT says:
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    I had James Johnson in my dynasty for his lunch pail stats, but I dropped him this morning for Norris Cole. Any rookie PG who hits 20 points is getting an add.

    But Klay Thompson is now on waivers, and I love him like a fat kid loves cake. I’m convinced he’s got a 10% of being the next shooter who’s a house hold name. Klay or Cole?

  2. Jay says:
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    Looks to me like Favors was limited to 18 minutes due to early foul trouble (maybe he was guarding Gasol?). Seems like he had some foul issues last year, too, but I think he’ll still be sporting the 26-32 mpg we expected, on nights he doesn’t hack.

  3. Sully says:
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    Adam,

    New to fantasy hoops this year. Any glaring weaknesses on this team? Who would be the first guy to drop? I’m guessing Hickson.

    PG: Wall
    SG: Ginobili
    SF: Durant
    PF: Horford
    C: Nene
    G: D. Harris
    F: G. Monroe
    UTIL: Harden
    UTIL: Humphries
    UTIL: Afffalo

    Bench: Augustin, Hickson, D. Colllison

  4. BradM says:
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    Would you rather own Cole or Ricky Rubio at this point?

  5. Adam

    Adam says:
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    @JT: That’s tricky. Klay is probably in a better situation in Golden State that will allow more growth in future seasons than Cole in Miami. Still, I’d take Norris, simply because we’ve seen him produce (in an EXTREMELY small sample size, but still … ) When in doubt, it’s better to take the guy doing it than the guy who might do it one day.

    @Jay: Yeah, foul trouble specifically, poor defense generally. We’ve got quite a shituation in Utah’s frontcourt.

    @Sully: Wow. This is a great first-time team. I’m assuming you’re in an 8-10 team league, right? Lord help the other owners if you’re in a league deeper than that. Your team’s projected per player output looks like: .492/.785/0.8 3ptm/ 16.8 pts/ 6.3 rbd/ 3.8 ast/ 1.2 stl/ 0.7 blk/ 2.2 tov. There really aren’t any glaring weaknesses here. You’re a little lower than you want to be in FT%, 3ptm, Rbd and Blk, but not THAT low. In the right league, you still might make the top 3 in each of those categories. You’re likely going to skate in FG% and STL. I might drop Hickson for the right player down the line, but right now, you should be in good shape.

    @BradM: Rubio. Cole had a nice game last night, but he’s not going 20/4/4, with 3 stl many nights with Miami’s Big Three around. Rubio could very much slide into Minnesota’s starting lineup and boost the 6/4/5, with 1.5 stls he’s averaged in his first two games of the season.

  6. Sully says:
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    @Adam:

    Thanks for the comments. It’s 10 team ESPN league with buddies from work. I printed out your top 100 list for my draft guide. Cheers!

  7. Jay says:
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    @Adam: So would you start Favors tonight (12-team, 12-starters)? Or is he now in wait-and-see mode?

  8. cwag says:
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    Hey Adam, thanks for the great information. Longtime reader, first post. Thoughts on my team? ESPN 10 team H2H each category, standard 9 cats. We start 11 with 5 bench.

    PG: Wall, Collision, D. Harris, Cole
    SG: Afflalo, B. Knight
    SF: Durant, Gay
    PF: G. Wallace, Gallinari, Hansbrough, Favors
    C: Nene, Hibbert, Kaman

  9. farcus says:
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    have an offer on the table for my cousins and favors for his d. west and camby. am i crazy not to take it?

  10. Adam

    Adam says:
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    @Sully: Nice! Well, like I said, you’ve got a strong base to start your season with, which is all anyone can ask at this point.

    @Jay: Depends on who you can replace him with on your roster. All else being equal, I’d bench him. For players I’m unsure about – especially at the start of the season – I tend to fall behind in games played. then when I know more about what I’m dealing with, I’m able to make smarter decisions.

    @cwag: Your team’s starting per player averages (assuming you’re benching Cole, Knight, Hansbrough, Favors and another player you didn’t list) work out to about this: .472/.802/0.8 3ptm/ 17 pts/ 5.8 rbd/ 3.7 ast/ 1.1 stl/ 0.9 blk/ 2.4 tov. With the exception of rebounds, you’re right where you want to be across the board. You could afford to trade Wallace for a quality PF; someone along the lines of Zach Randolph or someone like that.

    @farcus: No. You’re not crazy. You’re probably thinking the same thing he is: “there’s no way Camby stays healthy and there’s no way Favors doesn’t improve.” I agree with that thinking. Keep Cousins and Favors.

  11. Lou says:
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    12 tm, 9 cat, PG-SG-G, SF-PF-F, 2C

    PG, Paul, Jennings, Parker
    SG: Kobe, Hendo, Jordan Crawford
    SF/PF: Granger, Beasley
    PF/C: McGee, Favors
    Hibbert, Monroe

    What should I be looking to improve? Maybe another Hoya center?

  12. Jay says:
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    @Adam: Yeah, that’s what I try to do every season and then 2 games in I get excited about players and just plug them in, staying on the neutral pace all year. So I think I’ll bench Favors and some other question marks tonight and go ahead with my no-doubters. Thanks!

  13. Steve Stevenson says:
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    Had high hopes for CJ Miles this year as a #4-5 F in a H2H points league, but early signs are discouraging. Dump him for James Johnson, Tristan Thompson or Al Harrington, or hold? League has a solid bonus for DBL-DBLs. Could also drop Bayless, but I’m hurting more at G and am hoping for a Calderon injury/meltdown.

    Also, how do you think the Wiz SG situation shakes out? Like Crawford or Young better?

  14. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Adam:
    R Westbrook
    T Douglas
    P George
    D Gallinari
    B Diawa
    A Jefferson
    N Hilario
    Ed Davis
    S Hawes
    R Lopez
    J Teague
    S Ibaka
    L Deng
    Im new to the basketball,played years ago but not famillar with most of the foriegners,any and all thoughts welcome,thanks

  15. A Hill O' Beans says:
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    Hey Adam,

    Where can I find out what a good per player average is for each roto category? 12 Team ESPN league, 10 starting spots, 8 cats, these are the averages for my top 11 guys.

    .474 FG%, .809 FT%, 0.7 3PM, 5.2 REB, 3.6 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.7 BLK, 15 PTS

    I’m trying to get an idea where I need to improve. Any help would be appreciated.

  16. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    12 team head to head

  17. Migs says:
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    Adam – wow, wtf happened to CJ Miles? He looks like last year’s CJ Miles. Watch out because next game he’ll go for 25 pts, 4 3’s, 3 stls and shoot great %s.

    Why did he get so little minutes? Did Utah’s coach want to play Raja Bell on Kobe more or something?

    Also, I just dumped Kendrick Perkins for Brook Lopez out of frustration. Was that a bit too impulsive? Slimmed down or not, he was kinda disappointing.

  18. Adam

    Adam says:
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    @Lou: Your FG% and rebounds are likely going to be a problem for you, as you’ve not only got gunners in the 1-3 position, but the normally anchored FG% spot at PF/C is taken up by finesse center Roy Hibbert. Also, with Granger’s spotty shooting and Hibbert unproven to be steady, points might also be a problem. I say “might.” Indy could have a banner year on the shoulders of these two and you might ease into first place. I’m just going by the last three years worth of performances.

    @Jay: No problemo (that’s Spanish for “no problem.”) Good luck!

    @Steve Stevenson: The Jazz have only played one game and they played that game poorly. I’d hold unless you’re dying to grab one of the aforementioned players, at least through three games. Young is the better shooter and (amazingly enough) the smarter player. I really hate this D.C. roster, but Crawford’s going to have more rough patches than most.

    @AL KOHOLIC: You’ve got a tall team. Not many shooters outside of Gallo and maybe Paul George (I guess Deng could be considered a shooter, but he has more of a ‘tweener’s game). That’s a problem. The good news is you have bigs to spare. I’d try to work a deal (or the FA pool) to get a PG/SG with solid assist and steal totals.

    @A Hill O’ Beans: Here’s a good start: http://basketball.razzball.com/fantasy-basketball-10-12-and-14-team-winning-averages
    I created that last year. Ignore the TOV totals as my calculations got messed up and they should all be about an extra TOV higher. Other than that, this should serve as a good guideline.

    @Migs: I keep telling everyone: it’s only four days into the season! Miles has only played one game. It was a terrible game, sure. But it was just one. That said, dropping Perky for BroPez was a good move. Let’s assume both players make no improvements and simply meet their career averages – there’s absolutely no argument over which player has the most fantasy value, even if Lopez misses two more months than Perkins. THAT’s how much more valuable he is. Assuming Perkins plays all 66 games, it would take Lopez 24 games at his career ppg average to equal Perkins’ production, 53 games to catch up to his rbd, 41 games for his assists and 54 games to catch up to his blocks. That’s IF Perkins plays all 66 games and IF Lopez doesn’t improve at all in his fourth season. Not a whole lot of downside here.

  19. Migs says:
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    @Adam: Thanks Adam, you’re right about Perkins/Lopez… even in H2H, I feel like Perk doesn’t give me much besides blocks and low-level rebs.

    I’m sure Miles will be good this season – the guy showed flashes last year, he just needs to get more consistent. He just needs enough PT, and honestly, he should be ahead of the likes of Raja Bell, Gordon Hayward and Josh Howard in the depth charts (unless I’m extremely overvaluing him).

    One more question for today – and honestly, it’s sort of inconsequential so I won’t be offended if you ignore it. Who would you rather have? Luke Ridnour or Beno Udrih? They’re both playing backup to some young guns who can’t shoot, and their games are pretty similar. With Barea and Livingston in the mix, who is the better prospect for this season?

  20. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Adam: thanks,ill try a few offers

  21. Brian says:
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    Need help on who to drop.

    10 team league:
    Lebron, R. Gay, E. Gordon, Holiday, Lawson, Thornton, Monroe, McGee, Varejao, Humphries, Augustin, Jet, Jack, and Ryan Anderson.

    I had Jack on I.R. so I could pick up Anderson but now I need to drop 1 to set my roster.

    I’m thinking of dropping Terry or D.J. Can’t decide.

  22. Matt says:
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    Hey Adam, I showed you my roster a while back and we agreed that my main weaknesses were Trevor Ariza and Andre Miller. Cole is up for grabs.. would you drop any of my two for him?

  23. Tony says:
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    Chris Paul, Chauncey, and Mo Williams, someones gotta go…. Clips gotta move Mo Williams at some point? right? Supposedly MO’s already cranky and with that cluster… somethings gotta give.

  24. Shawn says:
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    would you drop Tony Douglas for Darren Collison? I also have Dwill/felton..
    thx man merry ho ho

  25. Stef says:
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    I was being offered Lamar Odom for my Amir Johnson. Should I take it… it is a very tempting offer

  26. Adam

    Adam says:
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    @Migs: I think Udrih is the better player, but for right now, I’d rather own Luke simply because he’s getting more minutes. Assuming Rubio takes the reins at some point in the year, that’s the point I switch to Udrih. Also, a decent game from C.J. Miles last night. Not stellar, but an improvement.

    @Brian: @Brian: I’d drop D.J. His role and production is less determined than Terry’s. The Bobcats offense doesn’t seem to rely much on its facilitators, which takes the ball out of Augustin’s hands more than his owners would like. He’s also a smaller name and gives you a slimmer chance of being able to find him on the waiver wire if you reconsider. Someone with JET’s name recognition is more likely to get picked up just because he’s JASON TERRY.

    @Matt: Nah. Although, if you did it wouldn’t be disastrous. All three of them are going to have games that hurt your fantasy line.

    @Tony: Maybe. I feel like Billups is a better trade chip, though.

    @Shawn: Yup. Douglas looks terribly lost manning the 1.

    @Stef: I would. Odom has been nearly invisible to start the season. Also, the Mavericks haven’t won a game. In April, we won’t remember either of these things.

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