Fantasy Basketball Advice

We’ve all seen it happen in movies – usually romantic comedies or melodramas where someone has a disease that’s slowly killing them (or perhaps romantic comedies involving terminal diseases, but those are less common) – where the male lead finds himself in a situation in which he needs to woo the female lead in some embarrassing public setting – usually involving old people on a tour or some form of walkabout. The male lead always disrupts the public activity in an over-the-top manner indicative only of Hollywood’s imagination and not real life. “I’m sorry everyone, you all have to stop your tour of the dinosaur park so I can explain to Maggie here that I wasn’t sleeping with her sister, I was simply explaining to her sister while naked how Maggie’s bowel cancer has opened my eyes to life and love and I cannot live without her!” (Or, you know, something like that.) The female lead plays it coy for a second. Tears welling up, arms crossed. She was hurt and she is strong and she wants the male lead to see it. Then what happens? The cute old folks they cast as extras get to say one line. And that one line is always something sweet and humorous. Like, “Well if you don’t go over there and kiss that boy, honey, I’m ditching Wilbur here and doing it myself!” Hilarious, right? Watch for it in the next RomCom disease movie you rent on Netflix, because it happens in 94.1 percent of them. The idea here is that old people are supportive of young love because they remember when they were that age and no one should miss out on that feeling. Except, have you ever actually met old people? Especially old people you aren’t related to? They ain’t supportive of anything except hurrying through whatever activity their social security is paying for so they can get home in time for their 3 pm nap. It’s nice to think of the elderly as grandparents to us all, but really, we’re just in the way of their nap. Go hold hands later kids, I’ve got a pack of stegosauruses to look at before I take my nap! And now I’m going to talk to you about the top pick in the 2011 draft, Kyrie Irving, and tie this all together. It’s going to blow your mind. Wait for it.

There’s something poetic about the Cavaliers earning two of the first four picks in one of the weakest drafts of the last decade after having sputtered and clanked through the 2010 season. This rookie class is so underwhelming that its number one pick will, by most accounts, not be starting in order for Baron Davis to run the floor. Boom-Dizzle: the aging unreliable with questionable work ethic and even more questionable health. He was sent packing from Golden State, sent packing from LAC and he’s starting on the worst team in basketball. That’s all you need to know about the number one pick and this rookie class in general. And yeah, the Cavs say Davis is going to be a great mentor, but they’re also simultaneously trying to sell him off and have been since the spring. I just don’t see the old-guy-takes-promising-rookie-under-his-wing story working out because, a) old guys don’t really like doing that. The more successful they are, the quicker they mentor their way out of a job, and, b) Davis doesn’t strike me as the type able to mentor himself, much less a 19-year-old top draft pick. But this is the lie the Cavs will try to sell, just like Hollywood painting the elderly as kind. Davis isn’t going to see himself in young Irving, he’s going to see his competition. Old people don’t see young love, they see a disturbance in their routine.

Either way, it’s unlikely that Irving will play more than 24-28 mpg before Davis inevitably gets hurt and only a little more likely that he’ll end up averaging more than 30 mpg by year’s end. Compare that with John Wall’s 38 mpg last season and we’re looking at a bit of a disappointment. The 6-foot-2 Duke guard has a surprisingly short wingspan and the highest percentage of body fat among incoming rookie PGs drafted in the top 15 over the last 20 years. Irving’s got an efficient shot and a solid ability from the outside, but he’s not an athletic scorer like Rose or Westbrook. He’s built more like Deron Williams, but without the skill to do most of the things Williams can do. He averaged nearly 28 mpg with Duke, which he’ll likely match this year too, but his .529/.901 percentages won’t stick and neither will his 17.5 ppg. It’s important that you enter your draft with limited expectations for Irving. If ever there was a season where the No. 1 pick was far from a lock to have the best year, this is it. You’ll get 28 mpg, .475/.850/15 pts/2 rbd/3.5 ast, with  3 stl+blk+3ptm out of him – and if you draft correctly, you’ll be happy with that. Don’t be the guy taking Irving in the seventh round when everyone else was planning to wait until the 11th.

I hear that all your favorite NBA players are playing basketball overseas next year. I hear that all your favorite teams and all my favorite teams are holding cheerleader tryouts for the next six months. I hear that the captains of our favorite teams are all moving to Turkey and China to start hoops camps for children, or whomever, really. I hear that the league laid off more employees this week than your local newspaper did last year. I hear our autumn prospects for U.S. professional hoops are bad and getting badder. These stories will continue for months (and also down into the rest of this post!), so let us take a moment and officially acknowledge a sad moment in the league – The Spurs letting George Hill go to the Pacers!? No. Well, yeah, but that’s not what I was going to say. I was going to give one last huzzah to Rocket favorite Yao Ming, who won’t officially announce his retirement until next week. The 30-year-old Yao averaged 19/9 throughout his career, popularized the game in Asia like no one before him and may be my father, I can’t be sure. We both have dark hair and my first word as a child was “Yao.” To be fair, I said that word after hitting myself in the head with a Mr. T action figure, so the word might actually have been “Ow.” At any rate, we’re all looking forward to Yi Jianlian stepping up his game and filling the gaping hole Yao left in our hearts.

And here’s the fantasy basketball that’s happening in your neck of the woods. (©Al Roker)

Wait! Stop reading and read this (!): I need more input on what Razzball is going to do if the lockout carries into the regular season. Read this and tell me what you think. Thanks for stopping. Go ahead and start again:

Kemba Walker – Silas says the ‘Cats are going zone next season to allow the length-challenged Walker and D.J. Augustin to a) play together in the backcourt, b) showcase the lack of defense in Charlotte’s frontcourt when c) every other team posts up on the pair of Mere Cats all day long.    

Nate Robinson – Sugar Nate said he might try football if the basketball lockout lingers. No, he did not acknowledge that football is currently in a lockout too. Yes, Russell Westbrook knows that if Robinson finds out, it’ll crush the little guy. No, Russell Westbrook doesn’t have the heart to tell him.

Gilbert Arenas – Tweeted that the Wiz may have leaked 2009’s gun story because his “money making days [were] up.” Who knows what that gong show of a clubhouse was like, but as far as his talent and value as a player in the only 32 games he played two seasons ago, he averaged 37 mpg, 23/4/7, with 1.6 stl+blk and nearly two 3ptm per game. My guess is, he still had some money left to be made. But seriously, if you’re on Twitter and you’re not following @agentzeroshow, you’re Twittering incorrectly. And while you’re there, hit up @RazzballHoops. In the coming months, I’m going to be more active.

Omri Casspi – The Great Casspi is expected to start at the three next season. “Flibbertyjibbets!” said the one dude in Cleveland who just received his authentic Alonzo Gee jersey in the mail. (Only he didn’t say “flibbertyjibbets.”)

DeMarcus Cousins – Likely to form a three-headed Hydra in Sacramento’s frontcourt with J.J. Hickson at the four and Jason Thompson subbing in for both. I know what you’re thinking – Who’s Jason Thompson? No. Well, yeah, but that’s not what I was going to say. I was gonna comment on Sammy Davis Dalembert likely seeking employment elsewhere in 2011 … There. I guess that was me commenting on it. Just now.

Turkey– The country is taking all our best players. First it was Deron Williams and Zaza Pachulia and now it’s Sasha Vujacic (rumored to be signing with Anadolu Efes) and Jamal Crawford (currently considering an offer from an unspecified Turkish club) … I realize now that “best” might have been too strong an adjective.

There’s a lot to like about the Grizzlies. They’re the reigning Cinderella squad of the NBA, their logo is among the best in sports, they put a great town on the league map after years of embarrassing failure and they have, not one, but two players on their team that pronounce their English names with a French accent. Xavier Henry and Darrell Arthur have names that shouldn’t scare anyone off. Ex-AY-vee-er and DARE-uhl. No biggie. But these guys? These guys are unique and they pronounce their name accordingly. ZAH-vee-ay and Dah-RELL. So very French. There’s a good chance that either of these players could be the first guy off the bench next season or out of the 10-man rotation completely. Again, what’s not to love about a team with that much swing? We’ll regard Henry some other time. Today, let’s look at what makes Arthur a king among fantasy basketball sleepers.

Right off the bat, it’s worth noting that Arthur jumped from a 10.9 PER in his first two seasons to a 15.7 as a 22-year-old. Noted! (Totally worth it.) He improved hugely in every single category other than TOV and RBD by a ton in 2010. He went from averaging .437/.590 in his first two seasons to .497/.813. T’weren’t no fluke, neither. He averaged more minutes and took more shots and free throws per game last season than in either of his first two. This tells you (and you, and you, but not the guy behind you because he’s just trying to steal your wallet!) that he not only saw more minutes and action, but he did more with the minutes he saw. Arthur’s scoring slingshot from 10.9 points per 36 in his rookie and sophomore seasons to 16.3 last year. Meanwhile, Arthur owners got 1.5 stl+blk out of a guy who was probably on the waiver wire for all but a month of the season. It’s true that Z-Bo and Marc Gasol were both hurt during portions of last season and that Arthur bumped his stats a ton in October, November and March because of it, but that’s kind of the point. Guys get hurt in the NBA. And right now, other the guys that aren’t hurt might skip the country to play overseas. Either way, you’re not going to draft Arthur in the fourth round, but he might be a steal in the 14^th. He was a steal for fantasy owners last year and people have a way of not learning lessons after the first try.

A week into the lockout and about a dozen players have already ditched the United Statesfor Europe. None bigger than Deron Williams, who agreed in principle to play with Besiktas in Turkey. As the same team also wooed Zaza Pachulia, it looks like we have a genuine European Dream Team on our hands. Some other sites are overhyping this move a little. The contract Williams negotiated stipulates that whenever the NBA ends its lockout, Williams is allowed to return. Honestly, I think Williams just wanted to get a little more practice playing in the swamps of Jersey. Loud, odoriferous gents with entirely too much chest hair? If it ain’t Jersey, it must be Turkey! The real news here is how dire the NBA lockout appears – especially to players. Chris Paul said the Players Association is committed to fighting. The league is bickering with Forbes over how much money they are or are not making. Kobe’s open to playing overseas – possibly China. Serge Ibaka and Pau are circling a Spain exodus. Armani Jeans Milano wants Carl Landry and Pops Mensah-Bonsu. POPS! DaJuan Summers is off to Italy. Nicolas Batum talks as if he’s overseas already (literally). Sonny Weems and Darius Songaila are off toLithuania. It’s only the second week of July. Imagine what it will be like three months from now if this lockout is still on?

Anyway, here’s equally depressing fantasy basketball news from the week:

Stephen Curry – Might re-enroll at Davidson to continue on with his education if the lockout continues. I want NBA TV to have cameras ready all over the world when the lockout ends so it can have a massive montage like a movie sequel in qhich the first 10 minutes of the movie shows what wacky shizz all our favorite characters have gotten themselves into since last we saw them. Curry’s improving his 3.1 GPA! Boozer’s bartending! Kaman is teaching an unpopular course on etiquette! Billups owns his own driving school! Lockout’s over! We’re gettin’ the band back together!

Andrei Kirilenko – After hearing that Rudy Fernandez turned down a $4.3 million-per-year offer from Real Madrid, Kirilenko offered his services for about $5.8 million. For the record, I also offered my services to Real Madrid and they were less interested in my offer. But only slightly. If I had to place money on which fantasy-relevant player was most likely done in the NBA, it’s Kirilenko. There’s a very real (or “Ray-Al” if you’re Spanish) possibility that AK-47 won’t be the only player to hop the ocean and never come back.

Michael Beasley – Busted for pot possession, but might not face a penalty from the NBA because the NBA doesn’t care what players do right now. He could incite a riot by throwing a trash can through the window of Sal’s pizza for all Stern cares. Speaking of which – or ‘wiches if you’re a hipster working in a Jimmy John’s – I’m interested in which players do any volunteering during the lockout. Sure, every last player is all about reading Goodnight Moon to the kiddies when the cameras are rolling. Turn the cameras off, we’ll see how many of ‘em care.

Roy Hibbert – The H.I.B. Virus tweeted happy thoughts on Frank Vogel’s promotion to head coach: “Even with a lockout going on I wanna congratulate frank on being hired. U deserve it.” A happy Hibbert should advance him about two rounds in your fantasy draft. No foolin’.

Brandon Roy – Former Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard said the team knew about Roy’s fluky knee when they handed him an extra $80 million. If you’re Greg Oden, are you hoping the Blazers extend your contract now?

Brian Scalabrine – said that he will play in Europe if the lockout negotiations don’t improve in two weeks. “No he won’t.” -Europe.

I spend an inordinate amount of time imagining what Tyler Hansbrough does with his free time. I picture a lot of paintball being involved. Maybe some fishing; a little hunting, but mostly fishing. I bet he loses his sunglasses in the water a lot when he goes fishing. Has he ever seen ‘Mad Men?’ I bet not. ‘Ice Road Truckers?’ I bet so. I hope so. IRT is a solid program. Anyway, I don’t see this habit changing anytime soon, as Hansborough’s free time doesn’t look to be lessening anytime soon. Last year he gave you little more than Camby, Gooden or Harrington last year and ended averaging only 11/5 with moderate averages for a power forward. After the All-Star Break, he posted a 15/7 and did a lot of shouting. I definitely remember a lot of in-game shouting. You like that sales pitch? Hansbrough gave you top 250 value, didn’t do anything astoundingly, and might have had volume-control issues to match his vertigo. I’ll take two! Still, whenever he plays again, he should offer more than before. Let’s look at some of the reasons White Ty Affair is a 2011 fantasy basketball keeper.

Remember at the trading deadline when the Grizz tried to  send O.J. Mayo to Indiana in exchange for Josh McRoberts? It didn’t happen because the paperwork had been turned in after the deadline. That’s the only reason. Tardiness. Both players had to slink back to their locker rooms knowing their team had tried to get rid of them. It’s like when you comfort your friend after a breakup by telling him how awful you thought his ex was only to have them get back together a week later. But it tells you all you need to know about where Indy’s collective head is at. McBob started 51 games and averaged 22 minutes last season. He also played the largest part in limiting Hansbrough to 29 starts and 22 mps. They want Hansbrough starting. They want him playing 26-30 mpg. When the Pacers played him 28+ minutes, he was usually a big part of the team’s offense, earning a 23-26 USG%. In short, the Pacers want to give him more minutes per game and they want to increase the amount of times he touches the ball in each of those minutes. He’ll also be in his third year, when the full potential of a player emerges. In the 16 games Hansbrough played more than 28 minutes, he averaged .532/.790/ 21/8/0.5/1.4 stl+blk. Even if they don’t rid themselves of a platoon of big men, Hansbrough’s still going to get his shot at a larger role. I’m thinking 26 mpg .520/.780/16/7/0.5/1 stl+blk per game. So yeah, despite probably not knowing what Sterling / Cooper / Draper / Price is, I’d still recommend keeping Hansbrough in 2011.