Comments on: Top 10 for 2011 Fantasy Basketball

By: jb

jb — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 16:47:54 +0000

i have to choose between drose and dwill. i picked dwill because he’s more reliable and tested through the years. last year, he’s hurt but still managed to be the 20-10 guy. what do u think? did i make a lousy decision? this was mind boggling to me. it’s like arian foster/adrian peterson pick haha

well, i’m gonna show u my roster too. 12 team h2h

pg dwill
sg joe johnson
g reke evans
sf beasley
pf b griffin
f cousins
c bynum
c bogut
util calderon
util tyrus thomas (per 36 is really high)
bn rubio
bn perkins (slimmed down !!)
bn fields (drafted because he is the best SG in boards)

By: Adam

Adam — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 15:23:10 +0000

@Shane: It's really hard to say. For any true insight, you'd have to know the guy personally (and I don't). The best I can offer is to look back at his performance in '03-04.His 23.7 PER was slightly above his career average, his Win Shares that season were 10.7 (fourth lowest in the last decade, but higher than each of his last two seasons). His scoring average was the lowest of any of the last 12 years and the second-lowest field-goal percentage during that time, too. Some of these stats probably came about because those Lakers teams were in a rebuilding period (this was the season with Payton and Malone), but considering the Laker made (are making?) plays for Dwight and Chris, perhaps the Lakers are in a rebuilding period again. We'll see a dropoff. Maybe because of age, or because the Lakers aren't quite as good as they once were, or simply because Phil is gone. Or maybe, yeah, divorce is hard and it takes its toll. Likely, a little of all these things will play a part.

By: Shane

Shane — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 07:40:58 +0000

Kobe’s hitting the single’s bars now – does that affect your prognostication about how he’ll perform this year? Lakers have a bunch of off court issues to deal with this year…

By: JP

JP — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 21:12:14 +0000

BTW – if Love bumps up his 3PM/STL/BLK (which I really think he can), while keeping all the other stats close to where they were last year, you are looking at a guy who will challenge for the #1 overall spot. His ceiling is that high. The only other guys I’d consider taking over him at #4 are Wade, DRose or Curry.

By: JP

JP — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 21:05:31 +0000

Adam – I agree and only use past year’s rankings as a guide in making predictions and rankings for the coming season. BM weighs each stat equally though so you get a high amount of Value for dominating a category (i.e. Love in REB, Nash in AST, Dorrel & JRich 3PM, etc). Check out the Help/FAQ tab which further explains their ranking system. It’s not perfect but I find it to be much better than Yahoo and better than the ESPN player rater, which does not count TO.

I’m not sure how you can say that %’s or TO’s are weighed disproportionately when each stat category counts equally. I’m more of a roto player but am involved in some H2H leagues so I understand the whole punting categories strategy but you still need to look at each stat and how each player helps or hurts you in each area. Everyone follows the flashy stats like PTS, AST, REB but unless you are in a pts league or one where some stats are weighted differently, each individual stat counts the same. Guys like Garnett or Brand won a lot of people their leagues last season because of their solid across the board contributions.

Again, the point of my original post was to show how DWill has never really come that close to being a top 10 player. Years of stats and rankings back this up. Yet, year-after-year, he’s consistently ranked in the top 10.